Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 011038 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 638 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS DOWN EAST TODAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630AM UPDATE... LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST IN A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MADE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN HIGH TEMPS ON THIS CHILLY START TO THE MONTH OF JUNE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RAIN IS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE TROUGH WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD AGAINST A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER A HALF INCH. THE HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP THIS MORNING`S RAINFALL CONFINED SOUTH OF LINE FROM CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTY TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY. COLD AIR DAMMING UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST LOCATIONS. IN THE CROWN OF MAINE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERMIT ENOUGH HEATING TO GENERATE HIGHS TOWARDS 60F. FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF ONTARIO WILL REENERGIZE THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DRAW A DEEP FLOW OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN WILL BECOME STEADY AGAIN THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMOUNTS OF UP TO ANOTHER THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE PRECIP WILL START MOVING TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE BY LATE NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER WV WL RIDE UP ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY ON TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE CWA. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE RAIN DRG THE DAY WL ONCE AGAIN BE DOWNEAST WITH QPF AMNTS ARND 0.75 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. TWD EVNG EXPECT H5 LOW TO TRACK ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH A STEADIER RAIN EXPECTED BTWN 00Z AND 06Z FOR NRN ZONES. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST AREAS UNDER CLDY AND COOL ERLY FLOW. CHC SHOWERS WL EXIST EARLY TUE NGT AS TROF PUSHES THRU WITH POPS DIMINISHING AFT 06Z. EXPECT LO STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE TO RMN ACRS PORTIONS OF AREA WED MRNG UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS SOUTH FM CANADA. WED WL FEATURE DRY WX ALBEIT CLDY SKIES IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL VALUES. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE L/M 60S IN THE AFTN. HIPRES WL DOMINATE THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ZONAL FLOW WL START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH CLDS INCREASING FM NORTH TO SOUTH AS NEXT SYSTEM APPCHS FM THE WEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S. CDFNT WL APPCH CWA FRI MRNG. HV GONE WITH SUPERBLEND CHC POPS FOR THE PD BUT EXPECT THESE WL LKLY NEED TO BE BOOSTED HIGHER WITH LATER RUNS. INSTABILITY ON GFS AND CMC LOOKS TO BE LACKING AT THIS TIME THO GIVEN THE PATTERN HV ADDED IN THUNDER TO FRI AFTN AHD OF CDFNT. THRU END OF THE LONG TERM FCSTNG NR NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM HUL NORTHWARD. CIGS WILL VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR AT POINTS SOUTHWARD SUCH AS BHB AND BGR IN STEADY RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FREQUENT ALONG THE COAST FOR SITES SUCH AS BHB. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL EXIST ON TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING BY WED MRNG TO VFR. EXPECT VFR UNTIL NEXT CDFNT APPCHS ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY -TSRA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES STRENGTHENS AGAINST APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL LIKELY BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS COURTESY OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. EXPECT WAVES TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WED EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...FARRAR AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR MARINE...MCW/FARRAR

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