Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170407 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1107 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will then cross the region late tonight. High pressure is expected to build back across the region on Tuesday. Low pressure will pass well south of the state on Wednesday followed by an upper level disturbance crossing the region from Quebec on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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1055 PM Update... Clouds will fill in a bit through early morning hrs as the front swings through. Light returns showing up entering the northern border. Webcams showed this to be light snow w/vsbys dropping at times. The flow is forecast to weaken overnight w/activity weakening. The latest NAM and RAP sounding confirms this well. Overnight low were adjusted upwards a bit especially across the central and ne areas due to more clouds. Downeast areas and far western areas should see mainly clear conditions to allow for temps to fall back. Previous Discussion... A cold front associated with the low will cross the region overnight. Expect mainly cloudy skies this evening to give way to partial clearing late tonight as the front crosses the region. Despite the passage of the front, low temperatures tonight will not be nearly as cold as last night. Expect lows to range from the low to mid teens north and upper teens to lower 20s downeast. Tuesday is shaping up as a mainly sunny day across the region, as high pressure builds across to our north. High temperatures on Tuesday will be near seasonal. Highs will range from the low to mid 20s north and upper 20s to lower 30s downeast. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday evening in advance of low pressure approaching from the west. Snow will begin to develop from southwest to northeast, mainly after midnight Tuesday night. However, high pressure anchored to our northeast will keep dry air in place across far northern Aroostook County, where it should remain dry through most of Tuesday night. Any snow accumulation through Tuesday night will generally be less than an inch. Low temperatures Tuesday night will range from near zero to the single digits above zero across the far north and mid to upper teens down east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Most models now are in agreement that the sfc low from the Mid Atlc states will exit ESE well S of Nova Scotia Wed, taking whats left of steady snfl ESE of the Srn hlf of the region. Aft a relative break, models are in relative agreement that a s/wv from the Nrn br of the upper jet will apch late Wed ngt and cross the region on Thu with additional sn shwr activity to msly nrn ptns of the region. The latest 12z model solutions of the ECMWF and CANGem have lowered the fcst QPF with these sn shwrs, but enough to go with likely PoPs across the Nrn ptns for now with arnd an inch sn possible with this system, and less Cntrl and Downeast. Following this system, we xpct gradual clrg to the region Thu ngt. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Hi pres both at the sfc and alf will gradually build SE toward the region from Cntrl Can, bringing msly fair ad relatively mild temps beginning Fri and cont thru the weekend and lasting into Mon, with little or no arctic residence of this air mass. Clds increase from the SW Mon ngt ahead of what could be the next sig stm system to affect our region midweek. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions can be expected through most of tonight except MVFR ceilings 020-030 could persist across the far northern taf sites(KFVE/KCAR)through early this evening. VFR all taf sites on Tuesday as high pressure builds in. SHORT TERM: Predominate MVFR clgs and ocnl vsbys xpctd across the TAF sites Wed thru Thu, with pds of IFR vsbys possible with any snfl. Conditions improve to VFR all sites Thu ngt and cont so into Sat. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Extended the Small Craft Advisory through 3 AM as wind and seas holding up longer. Seas will stay up longer w/sw flow through 2 am or so and then flow turns to the wnw w/the fropa. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Xpct SCA winds and seas ovr our waters Wed thru Wed eve, then diminishing below criteria late Wed ngt. Otherwise no well definable marine hdlns are anticipated Thu thru Sat. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory through 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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