Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 161702 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 102 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region from the west today through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1250 PM Update: Only sig chg this update was to decrease cld cvr ovr Cntrl ptns of the FA going into the aftn hrs but increase it some ovr Downeast areas due to hi cld band still movg ovr Srn ptns of the FA from the mid Atlc states based on latest sat imagery with Nrn ptns of the FA still experiencing bkn-ovc SC. Otherwise only minor adjustments to fcst hrly temps/ dwpts thru the remainder of the aftn based on latest sfc obs with no chgs to fcst hi temps from last update. Orgnl Disc: The cold front will reach the coast towards 8 to 9 am. Very little precipitation is expected past 4 am this morning. The strongest winds with the LLJ have moved east, but there will still be sufficient winds aloft to mix down 30 to 40 mph gusts as the cold front crosses. The winds aloft continue to decrease today, but the mixing depth increases such that north- northwesterly gusts of 20 to 30 mph will continue today. Sufficient H925-H850 moisture exists such that widespread cumulus and stratocumulus fields will be maintained in the northerly flow through the day...especially in Aroostook County. There is strong cold air advection behind this front with dew points decreasing from the low 60s to the low to mid 20s by later tonight. H850 temps will decrease from readings around 15 to 18C Sunday evening towards -5 to -10C on Monday night. The strength of this cold advection means today`s highs will rise little from the readings early this morning and start to fall sharply later this afternoon. Apparent temperatures in northern Aroostook will be some 20 to 25 degrees cooler than yesterday. Highs will range from the upper 40s in northern Aroostook to the upper 50s for Bangor and the coast. The ridge axis will stay west of the area for most of night. This means winds will not die off and allow any radiation inversions. Stratocumulus fields may also continue to move across the area well into the night. Nonetheless, the cold air advection will still generate lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Tuesday. Some remote areas in the North Woods may see lower temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will cross the region Tuesday, with a warm front approaching northern areas late. After a mostly sunny morning, clouds will increase across northern areas during the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are expected across central/Downeast portions of the forecast area Tuesday. The warm front crosses the region Tuesday night. Mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of showers are expected across northern areas Tuesday night, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across the remainder of the forecast area. High pressure crosses the region Wednesday, then begins to exit to the east Wednesday night. Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected across northern areas Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the region. Mostly clear skies are expected across the entire region Wednesday night. Temperatures will be at near normal levels Tuesday, with slightly above normal level temperatures Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A warm front will cross the region early Thursday, with a cold front crossing the region late. Generally expect partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of showers across northern areas Thursday, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across the remainder of the forecast area. High pressure will cross the region Friday through Saturday then begin to exit across the maritimes Sunday. Mostly clear skies are expected across the region Friday/Saturday. Partly sunny skies are expected across northern areas Sunday, with mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the region. Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected Thursday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR conditions will move out of BHB early this morning and be replaced by VFR conditions. Otherwise, predominately MVFR cigs will occur north of HUL through this evening. BGR and most sites south of HUL will be predominately VFR today...with cigs just above 3000ft. All sites will be VFR tonight. SHORT TERM: Generally VFR conditions are expected across the region Tuesday through Friday. However, occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Thursday night through early Friday. && .MARINE... 950am update...Wv hts had to be beefed up a bit ovr the outer waters for the morn hrs, but should subside pretty quickly by this aftn as the axis of high wv hts from last ngt`s SW fetch pulls out of the Gulf of ME into the open Atlc. NEAR TERM: Gale conditions will be ending towards daybreak and will be transitioning to an SCA for this morning. Winds will likely die off enough during the day to prompt another transition to an SCA for Hazardous Seas as seas will remain above 5 feet into tonight. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are possible early Tuesday, then again later Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise, conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Tuesday through Wednesday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross

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