Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 221819
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
219 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure will lift northward across the state into Quebec by
this evening. After additional rainfall today into tonight, this
low will bring unsettled and cooler conditions through the early
and mid week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --155 PM Update...
Latest sfc analysis showed low pres moving over the coast moving
n. Satl IR imagery showed enhanced cloud tops moving toward Nova
Scotia well e of the CWA. More adjustment was done to the
rainfall to show area of rain moving n into the downeast areas.
Further n, showers and fog. The latest suite of mesoscale
guidance showed a good swath of rainfall moving n later this
afternoon into the evening. Kept the mention of tstms in there
through the evening. Bufkit profiles show some gust potential to
40+ mph especially across the downeast and coast this evening. Any
tstms have the potential to transport those winds to the sfc along
w/heavy rain. Temps have warmed into 60s s of the St. John Valley
PWATs will remain high into this evening as well as moisture
continues to wrap into the state around the low. Therefore, expect
we`ll continue to see areas of fog through the day. Once the low
moves to our north this evening, winds will shift more to the west
and southwest, ushering in drier air. The rain will taper to
showers again overnight Downeast, but northern areas will continue
to see widespread showers as they will remain close to the low and
favorable upslope flow. Overall, expect northern areas could see
an additional inch of rainfall today and tonight, while Downeast,
including the Bangor region, should get a half inch or less. See
the Hydrology section below for additional details. Temperatures
will hold steady or rise a bit through the day, so highs are
expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
For tonight...cold air will begin to wrap in behind the low so the
higher terrain could see some snow mix in late. The other concern
for tonight will be gusty winds; the pressure gradient will tighten
overnight as the low deepens over Quebec. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are
possible, with higher gusts expected along the coast. Overnight lows
will be in the mid and upper 30s over the far northwest, while the
remainder of the region will remain in the lower to mid 40s.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
lighter Stratiform rnfl will transitions to sct shwrs from S to N
during the day Sun behind the cold front, with shwrs winding down
across much of the region Sun ngt only to return to the region
Mon, msly across the N hlf of the FA and contg thru Tue, before
slowly diminishing on Wed as the upper low ovr ern QB wobbles
before exiting as an E-W upper trof on Wed. Late ngt/erly morn
sfc temps will be cold enough for sn shwrs across the high trrn of
the N Sun ngt/Mon morn and spcly Mon ngt/Tue morn, with a rn/sn
shwrs mixed for lower trrn Mon ngt/Tue morn with little or no
accumulation xpctd attm. High temps will be much cooler Sun than
tdy and even cooler Mon-Wed and sig below avg has the llvl core of
cold air with and just behind the upper low tracks ovr the FA.
Ovrngt lows, however, will be only a little below avg, being held
up by cld cvr and winds.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sfc hi pres from cntrl Can will finally bring clrg skies to the
region Wed ngt with diminishing winds, allowing perhaps the
coldest ngt of the Fall season so far. Aft a fair and milder Thu,
the opnl 00z GFS and ECMWF are about as opposed as can be possible
for Thu ngt and Fri, with the GFS indicating a continuation of
fair and milder conditions with a building upper ridge ovr New
Eng, and thew ECMWF showing a fairly vigorous s/wv and sfc low
movg toward the region from the great lks. Looking for help to make
a better determination as to what model is correct, referencing
the GFS ensm indicates a much weaker, flat s/wv apchg the FA from
the great lks durg this tm with lgt precip, albeit the the ensm
looks to be a blend of widely dvrgnt solutions. The 00Z CanGem is
much more in line with the GFS. For now, we accept blended
guidance for Thu ngt and Fri, which brings a chc of precip, which
we call shwrs for now. We capped max PoPs just abv 40 percent for
now, and allow a brief start as sn late Thu ngt before chgng to rn
by Fri morn. But given the the degree of dvrgnt model solutions,
we cannot say there is any fcst confidence with this ptn of the
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR/VLIFR will prevail through the period at all
terminals. Low pressure lifting northward across the state will
keep widespread rain and fog around through this evening.
Conditions will gradually improve at the southern terminals after
00z Sunday as winds turn to the west and southwest and the rain
tapers to showers. Northern sites will remain LIFR/VLIFR in
widespread showers through 12z Sun. LLWS will be possible
overnight as winds increase in response to the deepening low.
SHORT TERM: MVFR clgs xpctd across nrn TAF sites with ocnl rn
shwrs and late ngt/erly morn rn/sn shwrs. Downeast sites will be
msly low VFR clgs with SC during this tm.
NEAR TERM: The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for the
outer waters, while the inner waters are now under a Small Craft for
this evening and overnight. Winds are expected to remain under 25
kts through the day today. The outer waters will see building waves
of 5 to 7 ft, but expect the inner waters will remain below 5 ft
through a majority of the day. Then conditions deteriorate overnight
as low pressure deepens to the north, allowing southwest winds to
increase to 20-25 kt with gusts of 35-40 kt. Seas will build to 11-
SHORT TERM: GLW conditions will cont ovr our outer MZs050-051 thru
Sun into Sun eve with SCA conditions xpctd ovr the inner bay/harbor
MZ052. An additional SCA pd will be needed ovr the outer MZs from
late Sun ngt into Mon before all waters become free of hdlns mon
ngt. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for this fcst update, with
initial combined stm wv pds near 10 sec Sun morn...diminishing to
a primary wind pd of 6 sec, with secondary swell pd near 12 sec by
Although there will be a bit of a break across portions of the
area this morning, overall expect widespread rain to continue
through the day today into tonight. Additional rainfall from early
this morning through tonight will be 0.50 to 1.5 inches with the
highest amounts across the North Woods. The main concern will be
nuisance-type flooding, particularly in any poor drainage areas
where culverts may become clogged from fallen leaves. But no
widespread flooding is anticipated and mainstem rivers should
remain well within their banks. Smaller streams will show rises
but are not expected to flood.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
Sunday night for ANZ052.
Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT Sunday
night for ANZ050-051.