Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221319 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 919 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 920 AM UPDATE: HRLY FCST TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE MODIFIED FOR A MORE REALISTIC RATE OF RISE CURVE INTO THE AFTN HRS BY UTILIZING OBSVD MORN LOWS...8-9 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AFTN FCST HI TEMPS. OTHERWISE...MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO CLD CVR GOING INTO THE AFTN BASED ON RECENT TRENDS FROM SAT IMAGERY. ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME FRAME. EXPECT A QLCS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS, DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20 KT. SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI

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