Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 070814 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 414 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ANOTHER WARM DAY W/INCREASING HUMIDITY. HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY W/A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THE CWA WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AS SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL APCH THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM12,WRF AND HRRR 3KM SHOW SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND A CAP. 7 TO 8C AT 700MBS AND -8C AT 500MB. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM AS SOME SB/MUCAPE IS THERE(500-800 JOULES). LACKING FACTOR INITIALLY WILL BE THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN TODAY. DOWNEAST AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER W/THE ONSHORE WIND. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATER TONIGHT W/SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME TSTMS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. A STABLE LAYER IS IN PLACE IN THE LLVLS W/ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE THAT LAYER. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2 INCHES W/A K INDEX OF 35 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THERE IS SOME DECENT SHEAR AT 0-6KM OF 25 KTS AND AN INCREASING SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS HIGH. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THERE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE PARAMETERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST HOLD, THEN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN ANT TSTMS. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 80 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A SHOWER ON SUNDAY BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER SOME MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT W/CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM/PTACHY FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 10 TO 15 KT W/GUSTS TO 20 K`S. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

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