Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCAR 251002
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
602 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
A warm front will lift across the region this evening and will be
followed by a cold front late tonight. A cold front will remain
just north of the area Wednesday. The front will slowly move
across the area late this week with unsettled weather.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:02 AM Update...A fairly tranquil start to the day with very
light/calm wind and temps mostly in the 50s to mid 60s as 6 AM.
The latest near term models hold off on the showers until very
late this afternoon/early evening across the western zones. Will
make some minor adjustments to slow the arrival of the showers by
a couple of hours. Otherwise, only some minor adjustments based on
the latest observations, satellite images, and web cams.
An upper trough visible on water vapor satellite early this
morning moving across northern Ontario will move east today and
into western Quebec this eve. As the flow aloft backs into the
southwest it will bring an increasingly moist air mass into the
CWA today as a warm front pushes into western Maine by this
evening. The precipitable H20 was 0.74" on the 00z KCAR sounding
with a lot of dry air in the mid levels. The Precipitable H20 is
expected to increase to 1.5" or more across most of the area by
this eve. As the upper trough continues east tonight an occluded
front will cross the area. The latest day 1 outlook from the
Storm Prediction Center no longer has any part of the state in a
marginal risk area, which seems quite reasonable. There is some
elevated cape, but not much in the way of shear. At this time
would suspect that there could be a few strong storms across
western areas late afternoon and early evening, but the severe
threat is on the low side. The increasingly moist air mass will
likely mean that any stronger storms will contain heavy downpours.
The most unstable air and best chance of severe weather will
remain west of the CWA. As the frontal boundary works across the
area tonight it will be mild and muggy with on and off showers and
some embedded thunderstorms. Areas of low clouds and fog are also
expected, most so across the Downeast region.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Wmfnt wl hv mvd thru by the start of the short term pd leading to
fog and low clds Tue mrng. Cdfnt wl cross the area in the aftn,
leading to isold storm dvlpmnt in the mrng in wmsector. As diurnal
htg commences and airmass destabilizes expect more widespread cvrg
of storms aft 16z ahd of cdfnt. As noted by previous shift, s/wv
wl mv thru ahd of cdfnt which does not bode well for strong storm
potential drg the aftn. Hwvr, low frzg levels acrs the north wl
lkly lead to small hail with any storm that is able to dvlp. Frzg
levels progged to be higher acrs srn zones and Downeast areas
cutting down risk of hail and hv rmvd mention.
Maxes on Tue wl continue to run abv normal with highs progged to be
nr 80F acrs the north to m80s acrs the south. Onshore flow along the
coast wl keep coastal cntys nr 80F.
Sfc hipres wl build in briefly Tue ngt bfr next cdfnt appchs fm
Canada. Skies wl clr twd daybreak acrs CWA and allow mins by Wed
mrng to dip within 5-8 degrees of normal, especially in the North
Woods. Airmass wl rmn muggy thru the middle of the week.
Frontal bndry wl be dropping into CWA Wed aftn. Models differ
significantly on pops for Wed with NAM dry and GFS lkly to
categorical. Difference appears to be moisture throughout the column
with 00z GFS arnd 1.40 inch pw values vs 00z NAM arnd 0.90
inches. Hv sided with Superblend with slgt chc-lochc pops in the
aftn, mainly acrs the north. Am not convinced it wl be a dry day,
especially with cdfnt lurking in the vicinity. Expect maxes on Wed
to climb well abv normal once again in swrly flow ahd of front,
even wrmr than Tue`s high temps.
Fropa occurs Wed night and looks to slow and eventually stall
briefly along the coast per latest med range guidance.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Frontal bndry wl be in vicinity of Downeast drg the day on Thur with
chc pops CWA-wide. Expect embedded thunder to occur in the aftn as
airmass destabilizes in diurnal htg. 1020mb sfc high wl build in fm
Canada Thur night and push front offshore thru the end of the week.
Latest 00z guidance differs significantly over the weekend with EC
bringing lopres system off of Cape Cod on Sat and spreading rain
into srn zones while GFS keeps it well to the south with GEM about
12-18 hrs bhnd EC. Due to discrepancy wl stick with Superblend with
isold-chc pops thru the weekend, tho if reality is closer to GFS
expect a fairly decent weekend.
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals this morning with conditions to
locally lower to MVFR in showers late in the day. More widespread
MVFR conditions tonight in showers and embedded thunderstorms. IFR
possible tonight in lower clouds and fog, especially at KBGR and
SHORT TERM: IFR at BGR and BHB to start off the short term with
potentially low MVFR and possibly IFR across northern terminals in
low cigs and vsbys. May see restrictions in -shra and -tsra Tue
afternoon, mainly north of HUL. Showers and tstms expected through
Thur with brief windows of MVFR restrictions. Mainly VFR on
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through tonight. The visibility will be poor at times in
areas of fog tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible
SHORT TERM: Areas of fog over the water to start off Tue morning
will quickly erode by mid-morning. Wind and seas will remain below
small craft advisory criteria through the end of the week.