Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251434 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1034 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm high pressure remains over the region today and tonight. A weak cold front will cross northern Maine Tuesday then stall. The front will return north in the form of a warm front Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1010 AM Update: Fcst hi temps were adjusted a little to reflect latest model guidance with regard to the tmg of the extremely warm air core from MI at 925 mb, which looks to be about 3 hrs to slow for hi temps to reach max potential ovr Ern ptns of the FA...so we lowered fcst highs alg the NB border ovr Aroostook county to upper 80s. Given the late tmg of warmest air alf and the potential of greatest sunshine in the aftn hrs, hi temps will likely occur in the 330 to 430pm EDT tm frame ovr Ern Aroostook county, which is about an hr later than typical for the shortened day length of late September. Further W, even ovr lower trrn lctns of the far NW, the warmest air alf will likely arrive in tm this aftn for temps to reach near 90 deg by mid aftn. All and all, a remarkably strong upper lvl hi for this late in the season ovr the Ern great lks and New Eng. Orgnl Disc: The anomalously powerful 591 H500 decameter high remains over southern New England today and tonight bringing another day of record warmth to the region. For today, a weak warm front will lift north of the state and introduce even warmer H850 temperatures than yesterday. H850 temperatures will edge towards 20C in northern zones by later this afternoon. In addition, warmer downslope SW winds will develop. This combination should bring the warmest day of the month to locations such as Caribou and Presque Isle with readings near 90F. This will smash the previous record of 83F at Caribou. Further south at Bangor, the record is 88F and there`s a very good chance at matching or exceeding this record too. There will be no relief from the extraordinarily high dew points either...readings will again be in the upper 60s with a few 70F readings possible again. For tonight, the warm southwest winds will remain steady and prevent much cooling. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s...except mid to upper 50s on the coast where a sea breeze develops this afternoon and continues into the evening. In terms of convection today, there`s CAPE but very little moisture or a forcing trigger in this strong upper ridge. There`s also a mid-level cap near H600. As a result, will go with no pops today. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front will sink south across northern Maine Tuesday then stall, though exactly where the front stalls is still uncertain. An isolated shower or thunderstorms is possible across northern and central areas Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, generally partly sunny skies are expected across the region Tuesday. The stalled front will begin to lift back north in the form of a warm front later Tuesday night. Cloud cover will increase across the region Tuesday night along with a slight chance of showers. The warm front lifts north of the region Wednesday, with a cold front approaching northwest areas late. Shower chances increase Wednesday, with the better chances across northern areas where an afternoon and evening thunderstorm is also possible. The cold front will begin to cross the region Wednesday night, with showers in advance of the front. Temperatures will be at much above normal levels Tuesday. Cooler temperatures will occur Wednesday though remain at above normal levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The cold front will exit early Thursday. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers early Thursday, with decreasing clouds during the afternoon. High pressure will build toward the region Friday with partly/mostly sunny skies. Surface high pressure will build across the region Saturday along with an upper level trof. Generally expect partly sunny skies across the region Saturday, though an isolated shower is also possible. The cold pool with the upper level trof could allow snow to mix with any rain showers at times across the highest elevations. Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected across the region Sunday with high pressure. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Thursday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect mostly VFR conditions except shallow patchy fog near sunrise. SHORT TERM: Generally VFR conditions are expected across the region Tuesday, though an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible across northern and central areas. Variable conditions with patchy fog are expected Tuesday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are expected Wednesday with increasing shower chances. An afternoon or evening thunderstorm is also possible across northern areas. MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the region Wednesday night into early Thursday, with conditions improving to VFR levels Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Long period swell will tend to increase again slightly towards 5 feet again by late tonight. Will go with no fog today, but a large area of fog south of the waters is expected to move north tonight and will bring fog back into the forecast. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level seas are expected Tuesday through Wednesday night, while winds remain below small craft advisory levels. Visibilities will be reduced in areas of fog Tuesday through Wednesday night. Showers are also possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...MCW/VJN Marine...MCW/VJN

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