Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 022004 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 404 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT OVER NRN MAINE WILL SLOWLY TRACK SWD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SINCE THE NAM12 MUCAPE VALUES ARE RANGING FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BEFORE SUNSET TODAY...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM STORM. THE FROPA WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE FCST AREA. WINDS MAY BE STRONGER/GUSTY TOMORROW DUE TO STRONG MIXING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND NAM WHICH BOTH PRESENT REASONABLE SOLUTIONS. THE SUPER BLEND CONTINUES TO WORK WELL WITH TEMPERATURE SO WILL USE IT THIS PERIOD FOR MAX/MIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EXTENDED EAST WEST ACROSS CANADA NORTH OF THE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE RIDGE SLIPS TO THE SOUTH. EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. A NEW LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WED AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKE EARLY THURS...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE ALONG THE WRN ME/QUEBEC BORDER. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON THURSDAY DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL AFFECT OUR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE MULTI-MODEL APPROACH AND BLEND THE GFS AND NAM. FOR WAVES: EXPECT NORTHEAST FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHEAST WIND WAVE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE EARLY FRIDAY (2-3 FEET/5 SECONDS) BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY FETCH DISTANCE. WIND WAVE WILL SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL BE LONG PERIOD INCOMING SWELL (AROUND 2 FEET/10-11 SECONDS). && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BERDES SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...BERDES/MIGNONE MARINE...BERDES/MIGNONE

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