Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 301623 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1223 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1215 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS DOWN TO REFLECT DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED WIND FIELD UP A BIT USING THE LATEST NAM12 GUIDANCE WHICH IS MATCHING THE LATEST CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH, LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT. PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN... WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES... COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH 850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT INTO MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GENTILE/HEWITT

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