Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251002 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 602 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift across the region this evening and will be followed by a cold front late tonight. A cold front will remain just north of the area Wednesday. The front will slowly move across the area late this week with unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6:02 AM Update...A fairly tranquil start to the day with very light/calm wind and temps mostly in the 50s to mid 60s as 6 AM. The latest near term models hold off on the showers until very late this afternoon/early evening across the western zones. Will make some minor adjustments to slow the arrival of the showers by a couple of hours. Otherwise, only some minor adjustments based on the latest observations, satellite images, and web cams. Previous discussion... An upper trough visible on water vapor satellite early this morning moving across northern Ontario will move east today and into western Quebec this eve. As the flow aloft backs into the southwest it will bring an increasingly moist air mass into the CWA today as a warm front pushes into western Maine by this evening. The precipitable H20 was 0.74" on the 00z KCAR sounding with a lot of dry air in the mid levels. The Precipitable H20 is expected to increase to 1.5" or more across most of the area by this eve. As the upper trough continues east tonight an occluded front will cross the area. The latest day 1 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center no longer has any part of the state in a marginal risk area, which seems quite reasonable. There is some elevated cape, but not much in the way of shear. At this time would suspect that there could be a few strong storms across western areas late afternoon and early evening, but the severe threat is on the low side. The increasingly moist air mass will likely mean that any stronger storms will contain heavy downpours. The most unstable air and best chance of severe weather will remain west of the CWA. As the frontal boundary works across the area tonight it will be mild and muggy with on and off showers and some embedded thunderstorms. Areas of low clouds and fog are also expected, most so across the Downeast region. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Wmfnt wl hv mvd thru by the start of the short term pd leading to fog and low clds Tue mrng. Cdfnt wl cross the area in the aftn, leading to isold storm dvlpmnt in the mrng in wmsector. As diurnal htg commences and airmass destabilizes expect more widespread cvrg of storms aft 16z ahd of cdfnt. As noted by previous shift, s/wv wl mv thru ahd of cdfnt which does not bode well for strong storm potential drg the aftn. Hwvr, low frzg levels acrs the north wl lkly lead to small hail with any storm that is able to dvlp. Frzg levels progged to be higher acrs srn zones and Downeast areas cutting down risk of hail and hv rmvd mention. Maxes on Tue wl continue to run abv normal with highs progged to be nr 80F acrs the north to m80s acrs the south. Onshore flow along the coast wl keep coastal cntys nr 80F. Sfc hipres wl build in briefly Tue ngt bfr next cdfnt appchs fm Canada. Skies wl clr twd daybreak acrs CWA and allow mins by Wed mrng to dip within 5-8 degrees of normal, especially in the North Woods. Airmass wl rmn muggy thru the middle of the week. Frontal bndry wl be dropping into CWA Wed aftn. Models differ significantly on pops for Wed with NAM dry and GFS lkly to categorical. Difference appears to be moisture throughout the column with 00z GFS arnd 1.40 inch pw values vs 00z NAM arnd 0.90 inches. Hv sided with Superblend with slgt chc-lochc pops in the aftn, mainly acrs the north. Am not convinced it wl be a dry day, especially with cdfnt lurking in the vicinity. Expect maxes on Wed to climb well abv normal once again in swrly flow ahd of front, even wrmr than Tue`s high temps. Fropa occurs Wed night and looks to slow and eventually stall briefly along the coast per latest med range guidance. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Frontal bndry wl be in vicinity of Downeast drg the day on Thur with chc pops CWA-wide. Expect embedded thunder to occur in the aftn as airmass destabilizes in diurnal htg. 1020mb sfc high wl build in fm Canada Thur night and push front offshore thru the end of the week. Latest 00z guidance differs significantly over the weekend with EC bringing lopres system off of Cape Cod on Sat and spreading rain into srn zones while GFS keeps it well to the south with GEM about 12-18 hrs bhnd EC. Due to discrepancy wl stick with Superblend with isold-chc pops thru the weekend, tho if reality is closer to GFS expect a fairly decent weekend. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals this morning with conditions to locally lower to MVFR in showers late in the day. More widespread MVFR conditions tonight in showers and embedded thunderstorms. IFR possible tonight in lower clouds and fog, especially at KBGR and KBHB. SHORT TERM: IFR at BGR and BHB to start off the short term with potentially low MVFR and possibly IFR across northern terminals in low cigs and vsbys. May see restrictions in -shra and -tsra Tue afternoon, mainly north of HUL. Showers and tstms expected through Thur with brief windows of MVFR restrictions. Mainly VFR on Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. The visibility will be poor at times in areas of fog tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible tonight. SHORT TERM: Areas of fog over the water to start off Tue morning will quickly erode by mid-morning. Wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory criteria through the end of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...CB/Farrar Marine...CB/Farrar

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