Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221018 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 618 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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615 AM UPDATE...NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LOCAL WEBCAMS SHOW SOME VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE, BUT TEXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PROHIBIT THE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ARE STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS PISCATAQUIS AND FAR WESTERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED, SO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN. THE SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TOWARD US OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY. FOR HIGHS, WE ARE LOOKING AT MAINLY MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S SUNDAY. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. WE WENT A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT MOST MODELS SHOW FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS, AS WHEN ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED MORE THAN A COUPLE DAYS OUT, IT IS COMMON FOR MOS GUIDANCE TO TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. PLUS, MIXING DOWN THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAT MODELS ARE PROGGING SUGGESTS THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. SO HOW WARM ARE WE TALKING? WE ARE EXPECTING LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY, BUT NOT TERRIBLY SO. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND WE GET INTO MORE UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER, MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT FALLS APART BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY IF WE WILL STAY VERY WARM WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OR IF A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL COOL DOWN AND DRY OUT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL EASILY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...HASTINGS/FOISY MARINE...HASTINGS/FOISY

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