Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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032 FXUS61 KCAR 232025 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 325 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure will pass north of the region tonight. High pressure will build back into the region Saturday and Saturday night. Low pressure will track across the Gulf of Maine Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will pass to the north of the State Tonight. This will result in snow overspreading the region late this afternoon and early this evening. Expect the snow to mix and change to sleet and rain in central and southern areas this evening. Have used the precipitation type from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs. For snow amounts have used the Snow Ratio Blender. The precipitation is expected to end in all areas by late tonight as the low moves off to the northeast. High pressure will build in from the west Saturday and bring clearing in the morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure just to the north of the state wl bring ridge axis thru the area Sat night. Lows on Sun mrng shud be in the single digits acrs the north and arnd 20 for Downeast. High wl shift east into the Maritimes as next lopres system translates thru the Great Lakes. Overrunning wl begin btwn 15z-18z Sun acrs swrn zones and spread northeast fm there. Expect lwr layers wl rmn dry acrs the far northeast until close to 21z. Attm it appears that most locations acrs the region wl be all snow until 00z when warm air aloft begins to mv in on strengthening LLJ. Except right along the immediate coast entire fcst soundings per both GFS and NAM is blo 0C into Sun evening. Pcpn conts drg the ovrngt on Sun night, hwvr moisture rapidly evacuates the snow growth lyr aft 00z Mon. Thus, pcpn slowly transitions to a drizzle/freezing drizzle scenario acrs the south aft 02z and by midnight acrs the entire area. This wl lkly leave a glaze of ice on top of the 1-2 inches of snow that falls bfr. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Once system departs stage right early next week zonal flow returns to the region thru the middle part of the week. A weak s/wv wl zip thru the north on Tue aftn bringing isold snow showers to the region but that wl be the only measurable wx thru the end of next week. By Friday, significant uncertainties exist in regard to the upr lvl pattern. Blocking high ovr Greenland wl lkly be the driving factor in terms of wx for the local area. Latest EC/CMC retrogrades the high back into Quebec while GFS keeps it nr Greenland. This allows eventual closed low to be further north than EC and CMC which wud lkly give New England a fair amnt of pcpn thru next weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions to give way to MVFR/IFR conditions late this afternoon and this evening. VFR conditions are expected late tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR Sat night will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR Sun afternoon at BGR and BHB, likely holding off until late afternoon/early evening hours across the north. Precipitation expected to start off as snow from BGR and north with mixed precip at BHB. Expect mix line to transition north during the afternoon, with -fzdz/dz during most of the overnight hours at all terminals. VFR expected from Mon morning through the end of the period. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for sustained winds. For waves: Southerly wind wave is expected to build to around 5 feet/6 seconds by late tonight. The wind wave is expected to be the only wave system. Wave heights are expected to subside during the day Saturday. Will use NWPS to initialize the waves. SHORT TERM: Wind gusts aoa 25kts beginning Sat night, continuing thru late Sun night. Winds may approach gales Sun evening on the outer waters. Winds will drop below SCA levels Sun night and remain below 25kts thru Monday. Seas expected to increase abv 5ft Sun afternoon in southeasterly swell remaining high through Mon afternoon && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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