Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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569 FXUS61 KCAR 281441 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1041 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the region today with high pressure building down from Canada tonight. A warm front will lift north of the area on Sunday into Sunday night bringing showers to the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1040 AM update...The cold front has made southward progress this morning and now lies somewhere between Millinocket and Bangor. The front will continue to slide further south through the day but overall progress will be slow. A humid and very warm airmass will lie south of the front, with highs in the 80s and dewpoints reaching into the lower 60s. Still expect mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop from roughly Bangor south to the coast. The best instability will exist across far southwestern Penobscot County, so this is where the most concentrated activity will develop and then gradually slide south-southeast toward the coast. The threat for widespread organized convection is small, but can`t rule out an isolated strong thunderstorm that might drop some small hail and heavy rain. Have increased pops to scattered coverage in the aforementioned areas of expected higher coverage. Otherwise, the only other adjustments that were made were to sky cover to bring the forecast into line with current satellite imagery. The forecast is in pretty good shape and no other changes were needed. Previous Discussion... Main challenge this term will be convection potential across the downeast and coast this afternoon and fog. A weak cold front will continue to slide s today and should be across the coastal waters this evening. Convection that fired up earlier has moved out of the downeast area and weakened. Areas of fog are plaguing the region this morning w/the lowest vsbys across the northern areas. Will keep an eye on the fog this morning as a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Fog will lift and burn off later this morning w/some sunshine returning. Clouds will hang on longer across the northern tier thus keeping maxes down some. Across the central and downeast areas, sunshine will allow temps to rise quickly and readings are expected to shoot well into the 80s all the way to the coast as the wind becomes offshore. Convective temp will be easily hit. Dewpoints in this region will be in the mid 50s to around 60. Sounding data showed enough moisture available from 850 to around 700 mbs to allow for TCU development. Decent llvl convergence as shown by the NAM and HRRR along the boundary and atmosphere destabilizes. SB/MU CAPES of 1000 joules are shown in the downeast region. WBZ is about 9500 ft and pwats of 1.5+ inches. Definitely enough for tstms. Showalter index drops to -1 or so. It does not look like organized convection but some storms could be strong enough to produce hail around 1/2 inch w/heavy rainfall. Decided to keep 20-30% POPs in place. The NAM looks to be overdone w/its dewpoints therefore overloading the llvls but it has the right idea. For tonight, convection should wind down this evening w/loss of heating and lack of significant forcing. Areas of fog expected once again especially across the downeast and coast as the winds turn to the ene. High pres to the n will nose down into the region allowing for some clearing especially across the northern areas. This will allow for a cooldown. Min temps will be tricky as northern areas will cool back into the upper 40s while central and downeast see mid 50s. A warm front is forecast to lift northward overnight with some showers breaking out ahead of the front by early Sunday morning back across the western areas. Left out any mention of tstms as the airmass looks to be stable especially in the llvls. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A warm front will move northeast across the region during Sunday as an upper level ridge builds across the region. Expect some showers with the passage of the warm front, mainly across northern areas, especially the St. John Valley where went with low end categorical pops (75-80%). Otherwise expect mainly cloudy skies across the region. The combination of cloud cover and southerly winds will hold temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, but only around 60 along the immediate coast. Sunday night will be mainly cloudy with the chance for showers, especially across northern areas. Monday will see the chance for showers and thunderstorms in advance of a short wave approaching from the west. Have added the mention of heavy rainfall for Monday corresponding to likely or higher pops, mainly across central and downeast areas. Precipitable water values around 1.5 inches and dew points in the lower 60s will support the potential for heavy downpours. Have also added the mention of areas of fog for coastal downeast with high dewpoint air and south winds off the gulf of Maine. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to diminish by later Monday afternoon with the passage of the short wave. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday night will see partly to mostly cloudy skies with only the chance for a shower. Tuesday will see a secondary cold front crossing the region. Expect the chance for showers and afternoon thunderstorms, mainly across northern and central areas. Will also have to watch for the possibility of a few stronger storms with the passage of the short wave and secondary cold front Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday are shaping up as dry days with temperatures a bit above seasonal levels for this time of year. Another system will bring the next chance for rain by Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR mainly across the northern TAF sites this morning w/fog and low clouds. KBGR and KBHB will flirt w/periods of IFR this morning and fog. Conditions are forecast to improve to VFR later this morning into the afternoon. The challenge will along the coast near KBHB as conditions could hang on for IFR longer. For tonight, expecting fog development later in the evening which could bring conditions down to IFR/MVFR. SHORT TERM: Expect vfr/mvfr conditions on Sunday in showers across the northern terminals and mvfr cigs kbgr/kbhb. Expect widespread mvfr in cigs and sct showers across the northern terminals and widespread ifr/lifr in showers, areas of fog, and low cigs kbgr/kbhb. Monday will see a continuation of widespread mvfr conditions in showers and thunderstorms along with ifr in areas of fog along the coast. Mainly vfr on Tuesday along with sct showers and thunderstorms mainly north. Vfr conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds in. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Expecting seas and winds to stay below SCA this term w/winds around 10 kts and seas 2-3 ft. Fog will be nuisance for the mariners with navigation this morning and again tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below sca levels through mid week. Areas of fog will reduce visibilty to less than 1 nm at times Sunday night through Monday in areas of fog. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/Hewitt Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Hastings/Hewitt/Duda Marine...Hastings/Hewitt/Duda

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