Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 232242 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 642 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the weather through Monday. Low pressure will track south of the region Monday night. High pressure will build across the region later Tuesday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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630 PM Update: Chgs this update include slowing down the increase in cld cvr into the W and SW ptns of the FA this eve based on latest sat imagery trends. Otherwise, fcst hrly temps/dwpts into the ovrngt have been updated based on latest late aftn/erly eve sfc obs with no sig chgs to fcst lows posted at 5 am. Lastly, minor chgs were made with fcst ovrngt lows and hi temps on Mon for the Mt Katahdin area. Orgnl Disc: Another unseasonably cool night is expected. Decoupling will occur with clear skies and light winds. A shallow inversion will form and will likely be steeper than last night as the air aloft has warmed. There will also be increasing high clouds in the southern half of the forecast area later in the night. With all of that in mind, the forecast calls for upper 30s to lower 40s in northern zones and upper 40s to lower 50s south. Record lows are possible north of Houlton. The cloud cover will gradually increase on Monday as a complex of two low pressure systems moves eastward from the midwest. While the clouds will increase, the trend in pops continues downward. A wave currently in the Ohio Valley is progged to become the dominant system and rapidly eject eastward south of the surface ridge that will remain entrenched over Maine. The forecast track takes it from the vicinity of Long Island to a position south of Nova Scotia by Monday evening. Meanwhile, the more northern surface low in the eastern Great Lakes region will weaken and fill...while staying well west of the area tomorrow. Will go with no higher than chance pops by late Monday afternoon for the southern half of the forecast area...with the highest risk towards the coast. Since the high remains over the area, it will be another day with below normal highs and low humidity. Due to less cloud cover, have raised highs into the low to mid 70s for most areas. The exceptions will be the Moosehead Lake region and coast where more cloud cover and the threat of showers results in highs only reaching the upper 60s. Onshore easterly winds on the coast will also help reduce temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will be ridged north and east of the region Monday night while low pressure tracks to the south. An upper level trof will approach from the west later Monday night. The most significant rains will remain south of the region, across the Gulf of Maine, Monday night. Will have a chance of rain Downeast Monday night. High pressure will impede the northward extent of the rain, with lesser rain chances northward across the remainder of the forecast area and possibly not reaching the Saint John Valley. The upper trof will cross the region Tuesday with a chance of showers, mostly across central and Downeast portions of the forecast area. Shower chances will then diminish during the afternoon, with decreasing clouds. High pressure will build across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Skies will be partly cloudy during the evening, with mostly clear skies overnight. Mostly/partly sunny skies are expected across northern areas Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the forecast area. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Tuesday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As high pressure slides away to the east and a cold front approaches from the west, clouds will increase Wed night and some precip may reach the western border around dawn. Showers appear increasingly likely across the entire CWA, and perhaps a few storms, Thu and Thu night. There seems reasonable agreement on the front nearly stalling along the coast or over the Gulf of Maine on Friday, allowing some showers to continue over the southern half of the CWA. However, beyond that, the models diverge significantly next weekend. The CMC is by far the most pessimistic, having a slow moving cut-off low slogging up the New England Coast and keeping central and Downeast areas in the rain both Sat and Sun. The GFS is the driest, showing a deep trough with the surface front, but no lingering cut-off, while the ECMWF shows hints of a surface low over the weekend, but keeps it and any precip to the south. Generally kept POPs to 20% or less over the weekend, but did show some areas of 30% POPs on Saturday in case some precip lingers. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue with excellent vis and no cigs until Monday. The cigs will be above FL050 and mostly south of GNR and HUL. SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across northern/central areas Monday night, with occasional MVFR/IFR conditions possible Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible Downeast early Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the region Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected across the entire region later Tuesday through Wednesday night. Variable conditions are possible with any showers or thunderstorms Thursday, particularly across northern and central areas. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No significant weather is expected with light winds and seas 2 feet or less. Fog is not forecast, but rain is possible later Monday. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels Monday night through Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain Monday night, with a chance of showers Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross

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