Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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958 FXUS61 KCAR 210124 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 924 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area tonight and Saturday then move east of the region Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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9:24 PM Update...Satellite pictures show a clear sky across the CWA with just a few clouds along the western Maine/Quebec border. Aside from the possibility of a few clouds at times in the far northwest, it will remain clear the remainder of the night. The wind has diminished in most areas, but still a bit gusty in a few spots. Where the wind has gone light in some of the valleys of the north woods temps have dropped into the mid 30s. Made some minor tweaks to the Sky grids, temps, and wind, but overall the forecast is in fine shape. Previous discussion... Dry weather will continue for the first half of the weekend as high pressure builds across the region. Gusty winds will abate this evening and this combined with mostly clear skies should allow for fairly decent radiational cooling. Lows will range from the lower 30s in the north to around 40 Downeast. Sunny skies and lighter winds are expected on Saturday, with highs ranging from the mid 50s north to the lower and mid 60s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure cresting over the area will bring a dry and tranquil night Saturday night. The high will move east of the region on Sunday allowing dry weather to continue along with a mild return flow of air from the south. Some moisture rounding the top of the upper level ridge will bring partial cloudiness to the area. However, dry weather is expected to persist. Upper level ridging will remain across the area on Monday as high pressure continues to move away to the east. This will bring a continuation of dry weather with even warmer afternoon high temperatures as a warm return flow continues out of the south under a mostly sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will remain anchored to the east on Tuesday as a strong trough of low pressure deepens in the Midwest. The gradient between the high to our east and the trough digging to our west will bring increasing south winds Tuesday as warm and increasingly humid air remains over the region. A frontal boundary ahead of the Midwestern trough will press into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing increasing winds and a good chance of showers. The front will push east and stall nearby to our east Wednesday night into Thursday. Our focus at the end of the week will be on a wave of low pressure developing off the Southeast coast in association with the upper trough digging east. The low will develop and lift north, well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast. If high pressure is able to remain strong and anchored to our east, and the trough digs deeply along the east coast possibly becoming negatively tilted, the developing low may lift north backing to the west a bit and bringing rain to our area Thursday night into Friday. The ECMWF and GFS have been favoring this solution. However, the latest GFS is further east with the developing low making it a close call here for our area. The low would then lift away through the Maritimes on Saturday as ridging returns. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Sunday as high pressure builds across New England. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Saturday night through Monday as high pressure moves to our east. There is a chance lower clouds will move in from the south overnight Monday night lowering conditions to IFR from south to north. IFR to MVFR conditions are likely on Tuesday in variable low clouds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed through Saturday as high pressure builds across the waters. Winds will be 10-20 kt through much of tonight then wane through the early morning hours on Saturday. With offshore flow, seas will subside through the period and remain below 5 feet. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA through Monday as high pressure moves to our east. Winds will increase from the south Monday night into Tuesday likely resulting in building seas and a SCA. Winds could approach gale Tuesday night or Wednesday as seas continue to build in strong southerly winds west of the Atlantic high and east of the approaching trough. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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The Wind will not be as gusty on Saturday as high pressure builds across the region and then moves east on Sunday. As a result relative humidity will gradually increase through the weekend; minimum RH will be in the 50-60% range by Sunday afternoon. However, no rain is expected until the middle of next week. Showers are possible Tuesday, but a Tuesday night and Wednesday are the most likely periods to see a wetting rain.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Hastings Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/Hastings/Bloomer Marine...CB/Hastings/Bloomer Fire Weather...Hastings

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