Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281036 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 536 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC SUNDAY AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6AM UPDATE... WILL END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS TO A BROADER AREA IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. NO ACCUMUATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN WINDS DECREASE AND CLOUDS MOVE EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW RADIATION INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THE FIRST ZERO READINGS OF THE SEASON ARE PROBABLE BY DAYBREAK. CIRRUS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS MITIGATING SOME OF THE DROP OFF...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BANGOR. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY THIN CUMULUS MAY FORM IN NORTHERN ZONES TOO. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SOME FLURRIES IN THE ALLAGASH AND ST JOHN VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES. AS A RESULT...FLURRIES MAY SPREAD ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY IN THE EVENING. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY ALL NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE COLDEST NIGHT OF YEAR TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT READINGS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS REPORTS LESS THAN ZERO IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS NORTH. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW TEEN READINGS ANTICIPATED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. A SFC HIGH CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SAT MORNING AND BEGINS TO SLIDE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SUN AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC BY 00Z MON. AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY SAT A MUCH MILDER RETURN FLOW SETS UP SUN WITH TEMPERATURES TO BE SOME 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE SAT NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE WITH A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE SUN MORNING. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH THE CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SUN AFTERNOON. THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT WITH MOST AREAS ONLY EXPECTED TO PICK UP AN INCH OF SNOW...AND MAINLY AREAS FROM THE KATAHDIN REGION NORTH. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SUN MORNING THAT COULD CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS. BY SUN PM TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE M/U 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE L/M 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO NW ONTARIO SUN NIGHT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS QUEBEC MON NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA WED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AS A STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE. THE RIDGE QUICKLY RETREATS TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS BY WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT AND USHER A COLDER AIR MASS BACK INTO THE AREA THU. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE REGION WED THAT WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND A MIX TO RAIN DOWN EAST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT SOME PERIODS OF THIN MVFR CIGS FROM HUL NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO MUCH OF SAT NIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MOSTLY MVFR MONDAY AND VFR TUE. IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE...
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UPDATE... DROPPED SCA. NEAR TERM: THE LONG PERIOD SWELL REMAINS OVER 5 FEET AT THIS TIME...BUT EXPECT TO DROP THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SHORT TERM: THE NEXT SCA IS LIKELY SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO RUN INTO MON. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY MON EVENING. ANOTHER SCA LIKELY BY WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
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&& .CLIMATE... THIS NOVEMBER IS NOW THE SNOWIEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE 6TH SNOWIEST AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAR && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...MCW/CB MARINE...MCW/CB CLIMATE...

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