Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201521 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1121 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11:30 AM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO OUR EAST. AS SUCH, THE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MID 70S TO AROUND 80, WITH THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING, CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS SHOW WEAK REX-LIKE BLOCKING SETTING UP OVR FAR NRN NEW ENG... QB PROV AND THE MARITIMES THU INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVG E OVR THE GULF OF ME UNDERCUTS THE ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE OVR NRN/CNTRL QB THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE. THIS COULD RESULT IN SCT SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURG THIS TM PD MSLY OVR W CNTRL AND W INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. DAYTIME HTG RESULTING IN SBCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHWRS. BY MID TO LATE EVE THESE SHWRS SHOULD DIMINISH AND LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HTG. AFTWRDS...WITH A WEAK SFC PRES GRAD AND SOME REMNANT LVL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVR THE REGION LATE THU NGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN. ON FRI THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVR THE GULF OF ME WILL CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE SE OF NOVA SCOTIA...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH REMNANT LLVL MOISTURE FOR ISOLD AFTN SHWRS...MSLY OVR WRN MTNS. HI TEMPS THU LOOK TO BE A LITTLE ABV NORMAL WITH OVRNGT LOWS THU NGT NEAR NORMAL. SFC HI PRES RIDGING SSWRD FROM WRN LABRADOR WILL LIKELY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL HI TEMPS UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS FROM THE ENE FRI NGT SHOULD MSLY PRECLUDE PATCHY FOG FRI NGT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... REX BLOCKING WILL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA SLOWLY MOVES ESE INTO THE OPEN ATLC AND THE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF A LITTLE FURTHER S OVR CNTRL QB. HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OVRNGT LOWS A LITTLE BLO AVG AS THE SFC HI CROSSES THE REGION. HI TEMPS MON AND TUE WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES SWRD OVR THE FA...ALLOWING THE SFC HI CONTS TO TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ME AND A RETURN SW SFC WIND SETS UP OVR THE FA. IN FACT...WE MAY BE CONSERVATIVE WITH HI TEMPS SPCLY TUE IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS AS STRONG AS BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HI TEMPS INTO THE 80S ACROSS LOWER TRRN OF NRN/CNTRL ME. OVRNGT LOWS SUN NGT AND MON NGT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM DURING THIS TM. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS LOCALIZED MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD...XCPT PERHAPS MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG LATE THU NGT INTO ERLY FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED WITH WV HTS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE OVR THE OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZS. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 TO 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THIS PD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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