Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270045 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 845 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will cross the region overnight. A cold front will stall across the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Update... With the exiting upper level disturbance and loss of diurnal heating any isolated showers remaining are in the process of dissipating. Mostly clear skies are then expected across the region overnight along with patchy fog. Overnight low temperatures will generally range from the mid 50s to around 60 north, to the lower 60s Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures and cloud cover. Previous Discussion... A cold front approaching from the northwest could spark scattered storms in the north on Wednesday afternoon. Nothing too strong expected. Expect Downeast to remain dry. Warm and fairly muggy, but dewpoints should be just a touch lower than Tuesday`s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure will pass to the north of the state Wednesday Night. Expect showers and thunderstorms in the evening as the front approaches. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out across the state during the day Thursday as the front moves across the region. For Friday the front is expected to stall near the coast, so expect more showers in the south with dry conditions expected in the north Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Uncertainty resides for the weekend into early next week. Frontal boundary stalled along the coast will be the focus for some showers and perhaps a few tstms Friday night. Further n and w, drying out. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 50s n and w while central and downeast areas will see upper 50s to lower 60s. Confidence is low in regards to the weekend w/discrepancy in the longer range guidance. The ECMWF along with its individual ensemble members along w/the GFS shows some light showers for Saturday but drying out later Saturday into Sunday.The ECMWF being most pessimistic especially for the coast w/its forecast showing and overrunning stratiform rain. Decided stay w/a blend and keeps low chance pops along the coast Saturday and went much drier for Sunday. Brought chance pops in for Monday as an upper disturbance moves across the region. Temperatures are forecast be near normal.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Variable conditions are possible with any patchy fog overnight. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected across the region overnight through Wednesday. However, variable conditions could develop across northern areas Wednesday afternoon with any showers or thunderstorms. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions for through Thursday with some brief periods of MVFR in showers during the day Thursday. Expect VFR Conditions Friday through Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through Wednesday. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 to initialize wind grids through Friday then reduced model winds by 10 percent to compensate for cold sea surface temperature. transition to super blend winds late Friday. For waves: With wind speed expected to stay below 10 knots through Sunday expect incoming long period swell to dominate wave systems. Have used the Near Shore Wave Model to populate wave grids. Will reduce wave heights by 1 foot through Friday as boundary wave heights appear too high.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Foisy Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Norcross/Mignone Marine...Norcross/Mignone

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