Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 162323 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 619 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build tonight into Sunday. Weak low pressure will approach the region on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 610 PM Update... Temps were dropping off quickly back across the far w and nw areas w/some sites coming in w/-3F such as Estcourt Station. The way the pattern is setting up overnight, it looks as though low lying sites will continue to drop quickly w/clear skies and light winds. The exception will be the far nw zones including the St. John Valley as winds could stay up around 10 mph leading to wind chills going to -20F or lower. Further e and s, winds look like they drop back below 10 mph but still very cold. Sfc analysis showed trof hanging back across the w and nw areas w/some clouds showing up per the latest IR satl imagery. Sounding data from the RAP show most of this area staying clear overnight. Wind Chill Advisory remains up for the nw areas including the St. John Valley. Previous Discussion... Clds expected to depart the area as the wv mvs offshore around 00z this evng. Skies wl be moclr ovrngt with winds rmng out of the nw as pressure gradient holds tight. Fcst mins tonight expected to drop blo zero acrs the north as cold air continues to infiltrate the state. With winds rmng up wl be issuing a wind chill advisory for northwest Aroostook. Widespread wind chills of -20F acrs this region expected. May see a brief pd of -20F wind chill in the Caribou/Presque Isle area but only for an hr or two by mrng. Sunny skies expected tomorrow with hipres building in fm the west. Nw winds will lighten up in the aftn with high temps several degrees shy of Sat as caa continues. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... On Sunday night, an Arctic air mass will be in place and winds will diminish as surface high pressure builds. Radiation cooling and decoupling will start with temperatures plummeting in the evening, but increasing high clouds will arrive in the latter half of the night. As a result, will only go slightly below consensus guidance...which is still quite cold with subzero readings in the northern half of the forecast area. On Monday, a weak shortwave will arrive from the Great Lakes. At this point, it appears that a weak low will form near the coast with some snow shower activity towards the coast, but not much further inland. An inch is possible towards coastal Hancock County. On Monday night, high pressure returns at the surface with a shortwave ridge. Once again, increasing higher clouds will negate radiational cooling after the early evening as warm frontal clouds approach. The warm front will set off snow Tuesday morning...mostly in northern zones. An inch or two will be possible with this northern stream system that will have little moisture. Temperatures will warm significantly...to the upper 20s in northern Aroostook County and nearly 40F towards the coast by Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Tuesday night, a cold front will cross in conjunction with a cold upper trough. This combination will create some instability with snow showers...or even snow squalls. The air mass behind the front is colder, but highs on Wednesday will still be the 20s...and even lower 30s for Bangor and the coast. The most notable feature on Wednesday will be gusty NW winds with a deep mixed layer. Gusts could reach 35 mph. A few flurries cannot be ruled out, but will not go with pops in the grids for Wednesday at this point. Winds slowly decrease Wednesday night as high pressure builds, but not to the point where there`s a need to go with temps below guidance. The high is expected to bring some sunshine and lighter winds on Thursday, but colder H925-H850 temperatures will result in a much cooler day than Wednesday. High clouds arrive again Thursday night in advance of a warm front that will bring snow on Friday. Low pressure will track towards the area on Friday, but the exact track is not certain...and as a result...p-type remains in question. Am going with a colder solution and more snow at this time, but the issue remains very much in doubt with projected storm tracks ranging from Quebec to the Gulf of Maine. The overall synoptic pattern suggests potential ice storm trouble towards Friday night as warmer air aloft in the southern stream overruns a cold Arctic dome. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals next 24 hours with high clouds occasionally skirting through tonight and Sunday. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR Sunday night. On Monday, VFR conditions will remain north of BGR, but for BGR and southward to BHB, IFR conditions in snow showers are possible. For Monday night, all terminals are expected to be VFR. On Tuesday, all sites will experience lowering cigs such that IFR conditions are likely north of HUL by midday and MVFR south of HUL. Snow will also reduce vis north of HUL to IFR tempo LIFR. A strong cold front on Tuesday night will produce tempo LIFR conditions in snow showers north of HUL. The prevailing condition on Wednesday will be VFR, but northwesterly winds will gust as high as 35 mph. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will gust to aoa 25kts for about a 6-hr period this evng and tonight before dropping blo SCA levels thru Sunday. SHORT TERM: An SCA is expected Tuesday into Wednesday night. A brief gale is possible Wednesday evening. The next SCA will be later Friday into Saturday. Again, a period of gale conditions cannot be ruled out. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for MEZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/Farrar Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW A viation...Farrar/MCW Marine...Farrar/MCW

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