Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
358 FXUS61 KCAR 211011 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 611 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area tonight and Saturday then move east of the region Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update 6:10 AM: Have adjusted wind, temperature, and dew point based on latest observations. No other changes. Strong high pressure located to the southwest of will pass to the south of New England today then move eastward into the Atlantic late tonight. This pattern will result in dry conditions through tonight. Winds are expected to be lighter today as the high builds and the pressure gradient weakens. Higher clouds are expected to build over northern and central areas tonight as warm advection begins as high pressure moves to the east. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge axis wl be building east Sun morning with return flow kicking in acrs CWA drg the day. Maxes on Sun wl cont to run abv normal as H5 ridge begins to crest ovr the area with heights 580+ dm in the aftn. This wl yields highs in the m/u50s acrs the north and l/m 60s in interior Downeast. Onshore flow wl lkly keep immediate coastal areas in the 50s. Return flow gets well-established Sun night into Monday with areas of fog dvlpng ovr the waters and possibly along the coast Mon mrng. Frontal bndry extnds fm Hudson Bay thru the cntrl Great Lks down into the deep south Mon mrng. Hwvr hipres wl dominate the CWA thru the end of the pd. Highs on Mon wl run 5-8 degrees abv Sun maxes under warm advection and sunny skies. May see some drizzle along the coast Mon mrng. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wl begin to see moisture, in the form of showers, return to the area late Mon night mainly acrs the south. System responsible for unsettled wx by mid-week is currently appchg west coast of BC and wl phase with H5 trof currently mvg thru the Rockies. Med range guidance agrees on phasing systems but differ on amplification and location. 00z EC closes off low acrs the northeast late in the week with GFS bringing upr lvl ridging back to the area. For now hv gone with Superblend and chc pops and unsettled wx beginning mid-week, contg thru the end of the week. Depending on timing of system wl determine when strongest winds are expected. All guidance showing H9 winds of 50-75kts late Tue night into Wed aftn. PW values progged to range fm 2-4 SD abv normal by mid-week with potential for elevated instability, but hv not added in thunder attm due to model discrepancies. GFS/CMC show bulk of rain falling Tue night into Wed (1.5-2.5 inches) while latest EC brings in more significant rain to area Wed aftn into Thu aftn (4 inches). && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR expected through Sun night with potential for MVFR/IFR across terminals Mon mrng in southerly flow. Conditions wl quickly improve to VFR in the afternoon. Restrictions then lower to MVFR and eventually IFR on Tue morning in low clouds, fog and rain thru mid-week. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to populate the surface wind speed. For Waves: Currently a southerly wave system (2-3 feet/6 seconds) which was generated in a southerly fetch across the Gulf of Maine early Friday, is the primary wave group. This wave system will subside during the day today. A secondary long period wave system from the southeast (1-2 feet/9 seconds) will become the primary wave system tonight. Have used the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to initialize the wave heights, however will lower model heights 1 foot to adjust for high bias. SHORT TERM: High pressure will keep winds and seas below SCA levels through Monday before shifting east. Winds expected to increase to aoa 25kts by Tue aftn, possibly increasing to gale force late Tue night. A southerly swell is expected to result in seas from 10-15 feet Wed mrng. && .FIRE WEATHER... The wind will not be as gusty today as high pressure builds across the region and then moves east on Sunday. As a result relative humidity will gradually increase through the weekend; minimum RH will be in the 50-60% range by Sunday afternoon. However, no rain is expected until the middle of next week. Showers are possible Tuesday, but Tuesday night and Wednesday are the most likely periods to see a wetting rain. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar Fire Weather...Mignone is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.