Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 022105 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 405 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS THIS EVENING AND THEN MUCH COLDER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE ARCTIC FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON PER THE RADAR. ANOTHER ROUND SETTING UP AND WILL DIVE SE W/THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM AND RAP MODEL DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW MATCHING UP W/THE RADAR TRENDS. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ATTM ESPECIALLY FROM 850-700MBS(7.0 C/KM). THIS COMBINED W/DECENT SHEAR AT 0-3KM OF 35 KTS AND FORECAST CAPE 80+ JOULES WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME MORE SQUALLS GOING. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTED THE MODEL SOUNDINGS W/DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL RESIDE FROM THE ST. JOHN VALLEY DOWN THROUGH CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE DOWN INTO HOULTON. ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MAINE INCLUDING THE MILLINOCKET-PATTEN AREA ALONG ROUTE 11 AND PORTIONS OF I-95. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW BURSTS W/WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL LEAD TO BRIEF WHITEOUTS AND VSBY 1/4 OF A MILE OR LESS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AT 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD W/GUSTS AT LEAST 30 MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED W/THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL LEAD TO SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE WIND CHILLS STAY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -20F. FOR TUESDAY, HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS IS EXPLAINED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THINK THAT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF AREAS, THIS WILL BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT, PERHAPS ENDING AS JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST. LOOKING FOR ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE LOOKING FOR A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, AND EVEN IN THE LOW 40S DOWNEAST. THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT NOTHING MAJOR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOOK FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO NOT FORESEE ANY MAJOR STORMS, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WEAK ONES BEYOND FRIDAY AFTER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. TOO MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT TO TIME THE WEAK SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART FOR ALL TERMINALS INTO TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS EVENING AS SOME SNOW SQUALLS COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY TO MVFR/IFR MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: IFR OR WORSE AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW. PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS CAA HITS THE WATERS AND THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. GUST POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE FOR GUSTS TO 40 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO SCA LEVELS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SCA LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRES RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH. SEAS ARE COMING UP BUT AT LEAST A FOOT UNDER WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. STAYED CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THOSE WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING W/A RANGE OF 5 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT AND THEN COMING DOWN ON TUESDAY. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING RIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING W/SOME MODERATE ICE ACCRETION. SHORT TERM: EXPECT PROLONGED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 9 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>004. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.