Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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982 FXUS61 KCAR 241100 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 600 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the area through tonight. Low pressure will cross north of the region later Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will then build back in through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6 AM Update... Only minor adjustments to hrly temps/dew points. previous discussion Northwest flow can be expected today as high pressure builds east from central Canada. Mainly cloudy skies this morning will give way to partly to mainly sunny skies this afternoon. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s north and mid to upper 40s down east. High pressure will build to our north tonight with mainly clear skies followed by increasing high clouds late. This will result in some radiational cooling potential across the north tonight as high clouds will not reach there until toward daybreak Sunday. Thus have leaned a bit colder for lows across the far north for tonight where lows will generally range from 5 below to 5 above zero. Elsewhere, across central and down east, lows will range from the low to mid teens as thicker cloud cover will reach this area earlier in the night, limiting much in the way of any radiational cooling potential.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... After a fair and chilly start to the day, model guidance has been consistent with the idea of another warm occlusion system apchg the Rgn from the W later Sun and crossing the area Sun ngt. The primary low tracks well N of our Rgn while the triple point low tracks sig S of the Rgn. Deep layer moisture ahead of the occluded front between these two lows will result in a rapid increase in cldnss late Mon morn into aftn, with sn breaking out by mid aftn. This deep moisture band, however, will quickly move out of the Rgn by late eve, limiting snfl potential spcly ovr Ern ptns of the Rgn where the band will have weakened traversing from Wrn ptns of the FA. Persistent supercooled low cldnss in the immediate wake of the occluded front will likely bring intermittent fzdz to the Rgn inland of the Downeast coast later Sun ngt into erly Mon morn with abv fzg temps resulting in drizzle alg the immediate coast. Low clds and fzdz/dz will dissipate later Mon morn with skies becoming prtly to msly sunny Mon aftn, with sig abv fzg, mild hi temps. Fair and mild conditions will cont Mon ngt. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A developing blocking pattern is xpctd ovr NE Can durg the long term, with s/wvs from upper midwest/great lks/S Cntrl Can movg ESE, msly S or affecting the Srn periphery of the FA. Max PoP chcs have been kept in the slgt to low chc range for now durg this tm frame with this update given the potential of at or below normal precip, until we get better model confirmation of a more coherent event worthy of higher PoPs as we get closer to this pd. With little on the way of arctic air available, both hi and low temps will be milder than seasonal norms during the long term. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions as a result of ceilings will eventually give way to VFR later this morning, with VFR then continuing tonight. Northwest winds today will give way to light north winds tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially VFR all TAF sites into erly aftn, then lowering to IFR in sn Sun aftn and eve, with a rn/sn mix possible Downeast sites. Cont`d IFR in sn Sun eve across Nrn TAF sites, transitioning to lgt fzdz ovrngt Sun while Downeast sites xprnc sn, rn, and possible fzdz. All sites become VFR again Mon morn and cont so thru Wed. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect for the outer coastal waters though this afternoon. Winds/seas should subside below sca levels tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and seas will increase back to SCA conditions Sun aftn into Sun ngt ahead of and with the passage of low pres S of the waters. Winds and seas will then gradually subside below SCA thresholds on Mon and cont below SCA Tue and Wed. Kept close to a blend of WW3 and NWPS wv guidance for these ptns of the fcst. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN

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