Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270416 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1216 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND SOMERSET DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE WITH THUNDERSTORMS RACING EASTWARD OUT OF QUEBEC. REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM ALL AREAS AS STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN THE COMING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER WEDNESDAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS METHOD FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALLBLEND FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. IT WILL DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED SINCE JUNE. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: COULD HAVE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCW SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI MARINE...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI

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