Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 192123 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 423 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the area late this afternoon into the evening. High pressure will build across the region later Monday through Tuesday. An occluded front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The cold front will bring a quick end to the relative warmth experienced by southern parts of the forecast area today. Rain and snow showers will sweep across the area for the remainder of this afternoon with some heavier localized showers generating a quick inch of snow. Most of the precipitation north of the Katahdin region and Houlton is now snow and rain showers further south will gradually change to snow showers this evening as the cold air arrives. The upper level shortwave producing these showers will move quickly east and be well east of the area by this evening. However, there is a secondary cold front that will cross tonight accompanied by another upper level shortwave. This round will cause some lighter snow showers towards northern Aroostook County, but will be far less widespread than this afternoon`s showers. This second front will introduce northerly winds and stronger cold air advection that will drop temperatures back to the teens in the north by daybreak Monday. Elsewhere, lows will drop to the low-mid 20s. The second shortwave that crosses tonight is expected to quickly evolve into a cut-off upper low over New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This cut-off and the northerly flow is expected to spread a lot of stratocumulus along the eastern border with some snow flurries. Temperatures will be much cooler than today and will not rise substantially over morning lows due to cold air advection through the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure will cross the region Monday night through early Tuesday with mostly clear skies. Cloud cover will then begin to increase later Tuesday in advance of an occluded front approaching from the west. The occluded front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday with light snow or a light wintry mix, with the better chances across northern areas and lesser chances Downeast. The occluded front will exit to the east early Wednesday leaving mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers across the north and mountains. Across Bangor and Downeast areas, expect mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of snow showers early Wednesday with decreasing clouds during the afternoon. Temperatures will be at slightly above normal levels Tuesday, with above normal level temperatures Wednesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The extended models are in good agreement through the period. A weak frontal boundary will move through the area at the start of the period bringing some scattered snow showers to the area early. A low tracking across the upper Great Lakes region will move into southern Quebec Thursday morning. The associated front will extend south through sw Maine. By Friday evening the system will be east of the area and higher pressure will build in. A low will move into the James Bay region with a cold front trailing west into western Canada, which at this time appears to remain in Quebec just north of northern Maine. A low over IL with an associated warm front extending to Long Island Fri afternoon, the low will deepen and move into Lake Michigan, the warm front will lift north across the Great Lakes, east across VT/NH into the N Atlantic over Cape Cod by Friday evening. Early Saturday morning the warm front moves into Maine, as the low continues to deepen over Lake Huron. Saturday afternoon the warm front moves east into New Brunswick the cold front moves into western Maine. The low continues to deepen as it moves into western Quebec. By Saturday evening the cold front moves east of Maine. The low continues to move slowly east across southern Quebec. Early Saturday morning the low moves to the Quebec/Maine western border. Sunday morning the low move east of Maine, and higher pressure builds into the area. High pressure will dominate to the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Snow showers will cause temporary IFR vis this afternoon with MVFR cigs. The snow showers will primarily affect terminals north of HUL. Further south, conditions will be primarily VFR. For tonight, conditions will be mostly VFR with the exception of a brief period of MVFR with a secondary cold front. On Monday, MVFR cigs will affect most sites with a few snow showers possible. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region Monday night through early Tuesday night. MVFR/IFR conditions are then expected later Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Occasional MVFR conditions will persist across the north and mountains later Wednesday, with VFR conditions developing Bangor and Downeast. MVFR/IFR conditions will develop across the region Thursday, then improve Thursday night. VFR conditions are expected early Friday, conditions then lower to MVFR to IFR levels Friday night.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will increase later tonight with cold air moving over the waters in conjunction with strong north winds. These north wind gusts will be at or above advisory criteria through the day Monday. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Monday night. Conditions are then expected to be below small craft advisory levels Tuesday into Wednesday. Light freezing spray is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norton Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross

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