Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 241842
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
242 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016
High pressure will crest over the area tonight then move east on
Monday. A warm front will lift across the area Monday night
followed by a cold front on Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cumulus clouds across the area will dissipate this evening.
Tonight will then be clear, tranquil and comfortable as high
pressure crests over the area. An approaching trough of low
pressure will bring increasing clouds on Monday. Some showers may
stray into western areas late in the day as a warm front
approaches. Atmospheric sounding forecasts show generally stable
air at the low levels on Monday so the chances for thunderstorms
will likely be low. The best chance for a thunderstorm late Monday
will be in far western areas where warm air west of the mountains
is lifting over the terrain and the more stable air mass over our
region. Will have scattered thunderstorms in far western areas
late in the day with isolated thunderstorms elsewhere along with
the scattered to numerous showers moving eastward.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fairly unsettled pattern through midweek with temperatures a little
Showers likely Monday night most areas with perhaps a few embedded
storms. Moist airmass could lead to some locally heavy rain, but
it won`t rain everywhere. Models still having some timing issues
with the system Monday night plus or minus about six hours.
For Tuesday, moist airmass remains and with a bit of cooling aloft
and an upper level shortwave trough passing through, could see
some storms with small hail. However, shorwave timing is a bit
faster than ideal, as trough axis is to the New Brunswick border
by early afternoon. So don`t think our storm coverage and strength
Tuesday will be as much as it could be if the shortwave was moving
a bit slower.
Slight drier airmass moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday, but
with fairly unstable westerly flow Wednesday, still not convinced
Wednesday will be dry. Put in a chance of storms for the north,
closer to the upper level low to our NW in Quebec.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lower than average confidence in the forecast Wednesday night and
beyond. Not looking for anything exceptionally hot or cool, or
anything exceptionally wet or dry. But precipitation chances day
to day are quite uncertain from Wednesday night through the
Generally, looking for a slow moving weak cold front to work its way
southeast through the area Wednesday night through Friday. But the
front`s progress is very much in question. It could clear the
coast Thursday with drying, or hang on until Friday night with
storm chances persisting.
Tentatively expect Saturday to early Sunday to be dry with near
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight
SHORT TERM: Widespread IFR expected Monday night Downeast in
precip and/or low clouds, with MVFR likely further inland.
Becoming mostly VFR for Tuesday through Thursday, although a
chance of storms will exist and any storms could of course lower
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below sca tonight through Monday.
The air will become calm tonight then a light southerly breeze
will increase on Monday.
SHORT TERM: Winds generally 15 knots or less and seas generally 3
feet or less through Thursday.