Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240858 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 458 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will lift across the region later today through tonight. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday. High pressure will build across the region Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Surface/upper level low pressure will lift north toward the region today, then cross the forecast area tonight. Mostly/partly sunny skies are expected across northern areas this morning, with increasing clouds this afternoon. Isolated showers could begin to approach northern areas late this afternoon. Generally expect mostly cloudy skies across central/Downeast areas today, with scattered showers mainly this afternoon. A cold front will also approach northern Maine later tonight. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with scattered showers across the forecast area tonight. The warmest temperatures today will occur across northern areas, where the most sun will occur, with upper 70s to around 80. The coolest temperatures will occur Downeast, with the most extensive cloud cover, with upper 60s to around 70 interior Downeast and mid 60s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower to mid 50s north, to around 50 to the lower 50s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Wednesday morning a rapidly weakening 500mb shortwave will depart the coastal Maine, with limited sensible weather, maybe a stray shower across downeast. The bigger weather maker for the day will be a surface cold front and 500mb shortwave trough from Quebec province. There will be a quick low-level moisture flux with surface dewpoints reaching near 60. This will have aid MUCAPE values above 1000 J/KG, especially across eastern Maine Wednesday afternoon. The GFS/NAM/SREF all show a descent CAPE axis during the afternoon. This will be our best chance to see some convection in quite some time. Right now I kept slight chance of thunder in the forecast, but could see the potential for increasing this to chance if guidance continues to trend up on CAPE values today. QPF amounts will generally be less than .25", but could be locally higher with PWAT values rising above 1.25". Front quickly pushes off the coast Wednesday night. Thursday looks to be a nice day with shortwave ridging and drier air from Canada advecting in all day on NW flow. Moisture will quickly stream back into the region on Thursday night as a warm front pushes into the area. Moist southerly onshore flow will bring in a low stratus deck. Isentropic lift will allow showers to break out especially after midnight.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Friday warm front will still be draped across the state with moist southerly flow all day. Confidence is high that it will be a mostly cloudy day with showers. Isentropic lift could be focused across the County, enhancing rainfall across Northern Maine, in addition to favorable upslope enhancement across the Central Highlands. Overall doesn`t look to be the best day, but it will be a warm airmass which will keep highs in the 60s, even under the cloudy skies. We will remain in the warm sector through Friday night with the possibility of some drizzle and low stratus. The weekend currently looks to be 50/50 with Saturday looking to be cloudy and rainy as a back door cold front approaches the region from Northern Quebec. Both the GFS/ECWMF camps have this wave, so confidence is moderate that Saturday could be a rainy day. The good news is that guidance has the front pushing to the south quickly Saturday night with potential clearing and dry Canadian high pressure building over the region on Sunday. Dry weather looks likely into Monday. Kept mention of thunder out for the long-term with no strong signals supporting convection at this time. Above average temperatures will continue for this period.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across northern and central areas today. However, locally variable conditions from MVFR to LIFR are possible early this morning. Conditions are then expected to lower to MVFR/IFR levels across northern and central areas tonight. MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected Downeast this morning, with generally MVFR conditions this afternoon. MVFR to LIFR conditions are then expected Downeast tonight. SHORT TERM: Biggest potential impact to aviation operations in the short-term are thunderstorms during the afternoon on Wednesday. Right now looks like the highest probability is across the County TAF terminals with about a 40% chance for vicinity storms. Lower chances are expected at KBGR/KBHB. Storms will quickly exit Wednesday evening with high pressure on Thursday. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected Friday into Saturday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels today through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in patchy fog and scattered showers today through tonight. SHORT TERM: A cold front will push across the coastal waters late Wednesday afternoon and early evening. An isolated thunderstorm could be possible across the waters. Clearing is expected by midnight with surface high pressure over the waters on Thursday bringing offshore NW flow. SCA not anticipated at this time.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross Short Term...Dumont Long Term...Dumont Aviation...Norcross/Dumont Marine...Norcross/Dumont

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