Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 032341 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 741 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 740 PM UPDATE... ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION CONTS TO WORK ACRS THE SAME AREA OF CWA. LINE EXTNDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO ERN NY BUT MAY FINALLY BE SHOWING HINTS OF SHOVING EAST. UPDATE TO GRIDS TO EXTND CAT POPS OVR NWRN ZONES THRU 03Z TONIGHT UNTIL S/WV FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT INTO CANADA, THO IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTNDD BY ANOTHER HR OR SO. AIRMASS HAS BEEN CONTINUALLY WORKED OVR BUT ENUF FRCG EXISTS AT UPR LVLS TO GENERATE THUNDER AND HVY RAIN. SVR THREAT CONTS UNTIL 01Z WHEN WATCH EXPIRES. QUITE A BIT OF WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACRS NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY WITH A 54KT GUST HERE AT THE OFFICE THIS AFTN. AFT 06Z EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. JUST TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... STORMS WL SHIFT EAST AS STRONG VORT MAX HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUAL DVLPMNT OF STORMS AS H5 JET LIFTS THRU THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR AN HR OR SO THIS AFTN/EVNG UNTIL NEXT BATCH OF STORMS, LOCATED OVR VT AT THIS TIME, CAN WORK UP OVR THE SAME AREA. TEMPS ACRS DOWNEAST HV WARMED INTO THE M80S WITH HIGHER DWPTS PRESENT IN THE M60S. UP ACRS NRN MAINE DWPTS ARE STILL IN THE U50S CUTTING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THE INSTABILITY. HWVR BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE CENTERED IN THIS AREA ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND MID-LVL JET. HV MAINTAINED THUNDER THRU 06Z BFR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. WL INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR STORMS THRU 01Z CORRELATED WITH WHEN THE SVR WATCH EXPIRES. AT THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE STATE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ROLLING INTO COASTAL ZONES AND HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE COAST THIS AFTN THROUGHOUT THE OVRNGT AS SRLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITSELF. CDFNT APPCHS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPNG AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST WHICH WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CAPE VALUES WL BE SIMILAR TO TDA RANGING FM 1000-1500 JOULES ACRS THE SOUTH MINUS COASTAL ZONES. HV GONE WITH LKLY POPS FOR DOWNEAST ZONES FM 18Z-22Z TUE DUE TO FRCG ALONG FRONT AND ASSOC S/WV MVG ACRS. HV WORDED IT AS GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN SVR WORDING BY LATER SHIFTS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DISPERSE ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW AFT 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL VARIETY...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PEA SIZE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE REGION AND -2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHTS. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY NOON...ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DISAGREEMENT BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE TRACK AND HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS CAMP IS WEAK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE WAVE AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF IS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH THE WAVE. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND. EITHER WAY...WEEKEND ISN`T LOOKING TO BE THE BEST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT FVE, CAR AND PQI. FURTHER SOUTH OF THIS LINE AT HUL MVFR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH. BGR MAY SEE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE IT. IFR AT BHB OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS/FOG ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD. OFF- SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVES 2-3 FEET FOR THIS PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR SHORT TERM...DUMONT LONG TERM...DUMONT AVIATION...FARRAR/DUMONT MARINE...FARRAR/DUMONT

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