Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 082026 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 326 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area this evening. An Arctic cold front will move through the region Friday afternoon. The first Arctic air mass will settle over the area for the weekend. Low pressure will approach Sunday night into Monday with the threat of winter weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... The models are in good agreement through the period. A low in central Quebec with an associated cold front extending back across the great lakes. A high pressure ridge moving to the east into the Canadian Maritimes. By early Friday morning the cold front will push into northwestern Maine, then into central Maine tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon the front will be through the state and into the coastal waters. An early high temperature tomorrow then falling through the day. Winds are expected to pick up becoming gusty tomorrow afternoon and will continue into Saturday. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Arctic air will advect into the area through the night accompanied by strong gusty winds due to a steep low level lapse rate. Wind chills will drop below zero for the entire area by daybreak Saturday, but no wind chill advisories are anticipated. The Arctic front itself will likely cause some snow squalls Friday evening...mostly towards NE Aroostook County. Accumulations will be under an inch, but could cause hazardous driving when combined with the strong winds. The strong winds could cause drifting issues into Saturday morning in the open terrain of NE Aroostook. Used a combination of NAM12 and Regional GEMs guidance to locate the Arctic front and its southward progression during the night. Expect temperatures to drop to the low single digits in the Crown of Maine by Saturday morning. Bangor and the Down East coast will drop into the 10-15 degree range for lows. Temperatures won`t make a lot of recovery on Saturday and have dropped highs for this forecast cycle to low teens north and upper teens to lower 20s south. These temperatures will be accompanied by gusty NW winds that will keep wind chills below zero in the morning and in the single digits for most locations even into the afternoon. Did reduce cloud cover for most of the day...just keeping flurries towards the Saint John Valley and western mountains. Temperatures on Saturday night will be challenging. If winds die off and decoupling occurs, below zero readings will be commonplace. For now...will bet on the winds. These will produce lows in the zero to 5F range north of Millinocket and Houlton. Single digits are forecast for Bangor while low teens are anticipated at Machias and Bar Harbor. On Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will cross the area. This means less wind and temperatures that will rise a couple of degrees higher. Overrunning high clouds will increase in the afternoon ahead of the next system. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ...Winter storm possible early next week... With Arctic air in place Sunday night, low pressure will move out of the Midwestern US in a fast westerly flow towards New England. Guidance from GFS, GEFS, GEMS, and ECMWF has come into better agreement with today`s 12Z run, but there remains questions concerning the amplitude of the shortwave trough. The amplitude of this trough dictates the track of low and its speed across the region. The 08/12Z GFS took a dramatic turn towards a more impactful storm for the forecast area and now looks like the 07/12Z ECMWF. Meanwhile, the last two ECMWF runs look more like the 07/12Z GFS. As a result of the flip-flopping, will continue with a consensus blend of available models over the past 24 hours. This results in likely pops for snow for Bangor and the Down East region and just chance pops for snow north of Millinocket and Houlton. The pops for this system now extend from Sunday evening when an initial burst of overrunning snow may fall towards to the coast until Tuesday morning when the last of the wraparound moisture leaves the forecast area. Did move the rain/snow line further south to the outer islands along the coast. Regardless of the model, the storm leaves the area Tuesday with colder air, but not Arctic, and a narrow ridge of high pressure. Another Arctic front will approach Wednesday, but there`s a lot of uncertainty on the evolution of this frontal passage too. GFS suggests southern stream moisture is drawn north with the prospect of significant snow later Wednesday into Wednesday night while the GEMS and ECMWF suggest no more than snow showers with the front. Guidance continues to agree on some very frigid temperatures again on Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions with scattered snow showers all sites. Snow squalls are expected across northern Maine tomorrow afternoon, affecting FVE, CAR, PQI, HUL. The squalls will be brief but intense, bringing VSBY and CIGS down to LIFR during the squall, then conditions will improve rapidly after. Winds will be gusty tomorrow, with increased gusts during squalls. SHORT TERM: MVFR tempo LIFR in snow squalls north of HUL on Friday evening. Strong gusty winds reaching 35 mph are possible Friday night. All sites will be predominately VFR Saturday and Sunday with the most likely exception being FVE in snowshowers. IFR conditions in snow are possible for BGR and BHB by Sunday evening. The period Sunday evening into Tuesday currently features a strong threat of IFR to LIFR in snow south of MLT and mostly MVFR cigs north of MLT and HUL. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: An SCA is in effect through tomorrow afternoon. A Gale watch is also in effect through the end of the period with a Gale Warning expected to be issued for tomorrow afternoon. A cold frontal system will move into the Northern Gulf of Maine tomorrow afternoon. SHORT TERM: Will maintain the Gale watch for Friday evening as gusts will likely be just above criteria and sporadic. A small craft advisory will follow any gale until late Saturday evening. Light freezing spray is possible Friday night into Saturday morning. The next big event appears set for later Monday into early Tuesday. It`s too early to tell if it`ll be an SCA or gale. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ050>052. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Norton Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Norton/MCW Marine...Norton/MCW

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