Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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353 FXUS61 KCAR 231401 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1001 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds along the southern New England coast today. A cold front will move into northern Maine this evening and will move to the Downeast coast by Monday morning. A slow moving area of low pressure will move up the Middle Atlantic and New England coasts Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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945 am update... Only minor updates to sky and initial temps were made with this update. Some breaks are showing in the clouds across the CWA as of mid-morning, but most locations are still broken or overcast. However, continued clearing is expected, especially for central and Downeast areas, which could become mostly sunny this afternoon. Clouds will likely linger a bit longer up north, but there could be a period of partly cloudy skies this afternoon before the high clouds from the next system move in from the west. Overall, the forecast remains on track. Original Discussion... CWA rmns under a stagnant airmass as surface low is gradually dissipating overhead. Low clouds and patchy fog will gradually erode in the next few hours as high pressure builds in from the west with northwest winds increasing. Ridge wl crest ovr the area late this mrng with winds turning to the southwest. This wl result in clearing skies this aftn along with warmer H9 temps. Maxes wl approach 50F acrs the north with interior Downeast possibly hitting 60F. Immediate coast wl be hard-pressed to see 50F tho not out of the realm of possibilities as they will just receive a glancing blow of onshore flow. Surface cold front will be weakening as it drops out of Canada tonight. Not expecting any more than isold showers acrs nrn Aroostook as showers fizzle under elongated shear axis. Expect another round of fog across Downeast zones late tonight as cold front eventually dissipates.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front will wash out just off the Downeast coast Monday morning. The brunt of the cold air pushes east from Quebec and into Newfoundland, but it does brush northern Maine with a sharp contrast in the air mass from far northern Maine to the southern parts of the state. Highs will range from the low 40s in the Saint John Valley, but closer to 60 degrees in the Greater Bangor Region. The day will be dry along with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Monday night will be mainly clear, but with an increase in clouds after midnight across the southern half of the CWA in advance of low pressure that will will be taking shape along the Carolina Coast. Temperatures in some of the northwest valleys could dip into the teens, with 20s common in the north, and 30s closer to the coast where clouds will be on the increase. On Tuesday, the low begins to slowly move up toward the Middle Atlantic Coast. Clouds will lower and thicken across the Downeast Region with some light rain to break out during the afternoon. Clouds will increase in the north, but it looks likely that northern areas remain dry. The Canadian as it did last night remains the odd operational model in bringing rain to far northern areas late in the day. Sided more with the less progressive solutions as the system is cut off from the mid level flow and will very likely be slow moving. Temperatures Tuesday will likely be coolest along the immediate coast where the clouds thicken up and the rain begins to develop during the afternoon. All of the guidance indicates that all of the precipitation will be in the form of rain with no snow this time. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure continues to work slowly up the coast Tue night and Wed and should end up in the Gulf of Maine by late in the day. Periods of rain are expected during this time, with the best chance of rain across the eastern half of the CWA. In fact, some models indicate little in the way of rain in far Western Maine, with the heaviest QPF across our southeast zones. There remain considerable differences in the amount of QPF between the models with amounts ranging from a half an inch to as much as a couple of inches of rain. This will need to be watched for potential hydro issues, especially the smaller streams, but if heavier rain materializes also the mainstem rivers which continue to run high, but have come down quite a bit and should easily be able to handle an inch or so of rainfall. The rain should come to an end across the region Wed night and will be followed by a dry and milder day Thu. Model differences again show up at the end of the week regarding the timing of a cold front Fri and whether Fri ends up to be a very warm day or if the front comes through quicker like the GFS with a cooler air mass. The model differences just continue to amplify by next weekend and forecast confidence is very low as some models are wet and other mainly dry. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR first several hours hours at BGR and BHB this morning. Northern terminals have scattered out the LIFR deck with MVFR cigs predominant. MVFR continues all sites until 16z-18z this afternoon, then becoming VFR. At FVE expect MVFR showers between 02z and 06z as weak cold front moves through. CAR, PQI and HUL likely to see brief period of MVFR cigs toward end of TAF valid time. For southern terminals expect IFR vsbys to develop just ahead of front after 05z tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR expected Mon and Mon night with conditions to deteriorate at the Downeast terminals during the afternoon Tue to MVFR as rain moves into the area from the south. Variable conditions Tue night into Wed night with IFR and MVFR much of the time with the chance of some periods of LIFR in rain and fog. Conditions will improve to VFR either later Wed night or during the day Thu. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through tomorrow morning. Areas of fog will develop over the waters late tonight. SHORT TERM: As low pressure moves slowly up the coast Mon and Tue conditions may approach small craft advisory levels by Tue night and continue into Wed. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Kredensor Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Farrar/Kredensor/CB Marine...Farrar/Kredensor/CB

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