Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 130036 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 736 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will lift across the region tonight then move to the Gulf of Saint Lawrence Wednesday. A strong cold front will cross the region Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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715 PM Update: Changes this update included letting the wntr wx adv end alg the Downeast coast, terminate the wind adv alg the Downeast coast, and trade the gale wrng in the effect tngt for another for late Wed aftn thru Wed ngt. Enough llvl warm air has moved into coastal Hancock and Washington counties for temps to rise sig abv fzg and for mixed precip to chg to rn. Otherwise, with the sfc low tracking a little further E, now nearly ovr the lower Penobscot vly, stronger sfc pres grad and llvl jet winds alf are msly being displaced E of our Rgn ovr NB and NS provs tngt, lessening the wind potential over the prior wind adv area, so we dropped it. Lastly, we updated fcst hrly temps/dwpts into the ovrngt from obsvd trends seen into the erly eve hrs. We will cont to monitor the trend of temps ovr the next tier of wntr wx advs across interior Downeast areas ovr the next few hrs in order to determine weather to drop this area by the 11 pm deadline. Orgnl Disc: Intensifying low pressure will track northeast across the region tonight, though the exact track is still uncertain. The low then lifts to the Gulf of Saint Lawrence Wednesday drawing a strong cold front across the region. Onshore winds are drawing warmer air inland from the Gulf of Maine, though the low level cold air has been slow to erode. The transition to rain is currently occurring along the Downeast coast. However, a wintry mix could persist early this evening resulting in a glaze of ice. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Downeast coast through 7 PM. A low level jet will also briefly move along the Downeast coast early tonight in advance of the low which could produce wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in place along the Downeast coast through 11 PM. The snow will gradually transition to a wintry mix across interior Downeast areas this evening, then eventually rain overnight with the warmer air moving inland. Have extended the Winter Weather Advisory across interior Downeast areas through 11 PM. Snow will persist across northern areas into the early morning hours. Warmer air being drawn north will eventually allow the snow to transition to a wintry mix across much of northern Maine late tonight, though precipitation could remain snow across northwest areas. Temperatures will warm across the region overnight. Temperatures will rapidly fall in the wake of the strong cold front Wednesday with colder air wrapping from southwest to northeast across the region. A flash freeze is possible in the wake of the cold front. Snow showers and snow squalls will accompany the cold front. A wintry mix early Wednesday across northern areas, will transition back to snow. Deformation zone snow or snow showers will then persist across northern areas Wednesday with the upper low producing additional snow accumulations. Have included southern Piscataquis county in the Winter Storm Warning overnight. Have not made any changes to the remainder of the Winter Storm Warnings or Winter Weather Advisories.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure will continue north through Quebec Wednesday night as strong gusty westerly winds continue pulling colder air back into the area. Moisture wrapping around the low may continue to produce some snow showers over far northern areas Wednesday night. Blowing snow is likely across the north. Otherwise, the north will be partly cloudy and Downeast mostly clear. On Thursday we`ll be in a corridor of dry air between the low well to our north and a weak wave of low pressure sliding well to our south. This will bring sunny to partly cloudy and very cold conditions with a chilly westerly breeze continuing. The deep low to our north will continue to produce a cold westerly wind Thursday night into Friday. Northern areas may still have some snow showers or flurries Thursday night with a mostly clear sky Downeast. Friday should then turn out mostly sunny as the low to our north lifts further north through Quebec and high pressure begins to build in from the west. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Clouds will increase Friday night as as shortwave trough slides into the area. Weak low pressure systems well offshore and up to our northwest will be carried across the area with the trough Saturday morning. Some patchy light snow is possible. Otherwise, the surface features appears poorly organized so any precipitation will likely be light. High pressure will briefly build in late Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure to our south combined with a low lifting up to our northwest will bring a weak warm front through on Sunday that may bring some light snow to northwestern areas. A small high will again follow for late Sunday night into Monday bringing dry and cold conditions. No major storms are in sight for next week, but an active and fast moving flow will continue to carry periodic weak shortwaves through the region. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions will occur across the region tonight. Snow will transition to a wintry mix across northern areas overnight, while a wintry mix transitions to rain Downeast. Low level wind shear is also possible Downeast early tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions will persist across northern areas early Wednesday, with MVFR/IFR conditions during the afternoon. Across Downeast areas, expect MVFR/IFR conditions early Wednesday with VFR/MVFR conditions during the afternoon. However, variable conditions will occur with any snow showers or snow squalls. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Downeast Wednesday night with MVFR conditions in variable low to mid level clouds and some snow showers across the north. Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the area Thursday into Thursday night although the north may occasionally drop to MVFR in snow showers or flurries. VFR conditions are expected Friday. Conditions may drop to MVFR Saturday as a weak low approaches. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect through midnight. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected later tonight through early Wednesday. Gale conditions will then begin to develop again later Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain tonight through early Wednesday, with snow showers in the afternoon. SHORT TERM: A gale will likely be needed for the offshore waters with an SCA on the intracoastal waters Wednesday night. Winds should diminish to a SCA offshore Thursday and will likely remain a SCA through Friday. Winds should drop below SCA Friday night into Saturday as a weak trough moves over the waters. Winds may increase to SCA late Saturday following the passage of the trough. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for MEZ002. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Wednesday for MEZ001-003- 004-010. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ005- 006-011-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for MEZ015>017. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ031. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer

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