Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280646 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 146 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT THEN TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF MOSTLY SNOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH. EXPECT MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TRACE. GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NOT TO MUCH CHG IN THE MODELS IN HOW THE LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS AND ASSOCIATED S/WV ALF WILL AFFECT THE FA SUN. ONE TREND NOTED IN THE 12Z DTMNSTC MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAS BEEN WARMEST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVR THE LAST TWO DAYS. WITH THIS IN MIND...EVEN TAKING A BLEND OF THE MODELS BRINGS ENOUGH MILD AIR THAT LGT SN EVEN IN FAR NRN LCTNS IN OUR FA COULD END AS A LGT MIX OR AS RN SHWRS SUN MORN. MOST LCTNS WILL ONLY BE RECEIVING LGT RN SHWRS OR RN/SN SHWRS MIXED BY SUN MORN...AS THE LGT OVRRNG SHIELD OF PRECIP QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE FA BY OR SHORTLY AFT 12Z SUN. SUN SHOULD FEATURE ONE LAST DAY OF ABV FZG HI TEMPS REGIONWIDE...BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR FINALLY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A NORTHWEST FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DOWN EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWN EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SQUALLS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHERN AREAS AND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND TEENS TO AROUND 20 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE BY MID WEEK. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THE CONTINENT COMBINED WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND BITTER COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH ON SATURDAY WITH ONE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE REDEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STILL PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR MONDAY EXCEPT SCT SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS COULD BRING BRIEF LCL IFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA

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