Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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621 FXUS61 KCAR 201014 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 614 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE 0610 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATION. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH STRONG GRADIENT OVER AREA DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE... SO DOES NOT LOOK LIKE FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WITH STRONG AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED. WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TONIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COOLER W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE TOO FAST AND AGGRESSIVE W/ITS PRECIP SHIELD. THEREFORE, LEANED W/A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR THIS TERM. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY W/CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW. THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM HOLDING BACK THE BEST FORCING & PRECIP TIL THURSDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY W/MAXES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND WEST TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. LOW PRES IF FORECAST TO LIFT NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS INTO REGION. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH POINT TO 700-5000MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRES LIFTS NE OF THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING W/SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BY MIDDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE LLVLS. AIRMASS IS COLD ESPECIALLY ALOFT & W/THE ASSOCIATEDCOLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN. BEST CAPE POTENTIAL IS ELEVATED AND FORECAST TO BE AROUND 200+ JOULES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE <0.75 INCHES. INVERTED V SOUNDING W/SW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/DECENT SPEED SHEAR. SOME HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON W/LOW FREEZING LEVELS(<6K FT). DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S NORTH AND WEST LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. QPF AMOUNTS < 0.25" FOR A BASIN AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND THEN MODERATING TEMPS THEREAFTER. COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SE OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS EXITING THE REGION AND ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT. MUCH COLDER IS SET TO FLOW IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE STATE. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP AS 925MBS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AOB 0C BY 12Z SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES AT THE BLYR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING W/SOME WEAK FORCING NOTED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECWMF. ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS. DECIDED TO GO W/20% POPS AND DID ADD A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE CHILLY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. WE ARE TALKING DAYTIME HIGHS 50-55 NORTH AND WEST W/UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. WEAK RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO PARTIAL CLEARING. THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY W/YET MORE SHOWERS AND CONTINUED COOL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER AS HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITION EARLY THIS MORNING THEN VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SHORT TERM: VFR THURSDAY W/CONDITION DROPPING BACK TO MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH NORTHERN TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE EAST SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD WAVE GROUP (3 FEET/9 SECONDS). SPECTRAL FROM WAVE WATCH III IS TOO LOW WITH THIS WAVE GROUP WHILE HIGH ON SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE. EXPECT WEST SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE TO BUILD TONIGHT AS GRADIENT INCREASE BEHIND SURFACE LOW TO NORTH. EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY... SO COMBINED SEA LATER TONIGHT SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A SWELL OF 4-5 FT IS SHOWN BY THE WAVE MODEL TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-4FT CLOSER TO THE INTRA COASTAL AREAS. AN OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER SWELL GENERATION FROM THE SOUTH IS SHOWN BY THE WAVE MODEL FOR SUNDAY W/WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING CLOSE TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER ZONES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT

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