Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 302313 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 705 PM UPDATE... TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES. SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO FAR NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACT HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH LOCAL EMBEDDED STORMS TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DON`T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TO BECOME SEVERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS. RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA. THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE. LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA. BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED. AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN. AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING VFR FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS

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