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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 151403
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1003 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will result in showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon across northern and western zones. The cold front will
move through tonight. High pressure will build in from Canada
Wednesday night and remain over the area through the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
10 am update...
The main change with this update was to add gusty winds/small
hail wording to include the Penobscot region as latest SPC day
one outlook has shifted the marginal risk area a bit further
south on their 12z update. Wind looks to be the primary threat,
with the potential for hail as well in any stronger storms with
freezing levels around 10.5 ft.

Have updated the Hazardous Weather Outlook to mention gusty
winds and small hail to include the greater Penobscot region,
otherwise no other significant changes to going forecast.


Prev discussion blo...
The cdfnt due in this evng is currently south of James Bay with
showers ahd of it. High clds are streaming into the CWA in sw
flow aloft ahd of upr lvl trof. Low stratus has crept onshore
along the coast with ocnl patchy fog inland, mainly nr rvr
vlys. Expect that patchy fog wl be less prevalent as clds
thicken this mrng.

Compact s/wv currently rotating thru srn Ontario and wl lkly
appch the state fm Quebec around 15z this mrng. This wl result
in isold showers dvlpng by late mrng acrs the northwest and
increasing thru the aftn as instability increases. Latest NAM
looks overblown on CAPE this aftn with high bias on dwpts, thus
hv sided more twd RAP with regard to instability. Best 0-6km
shear this aftn looks to be to the south of where best
instability is expected. Hwvr, shear still appears to be strong
enuf to continue mention of gusty winds in fcst acrs the north
and west this aftn. Convection wl drop south late this aftn
into more stable marine lyr thus expect just isold thunder
mainly south of Bangor region down twd the coast. Expect that
patchy fog dvlps tonight bfr drier dwpts mv in fm the north in
wake of fropa.

Highs tda wl be similar to yda with cooler temps along the
immediate coast in onshore flow and low stratus expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will be making its final eastward push across
the state Wednesday. As such, expect a few lingering showers
across far eastern areas during the morning hours, with perhaps
a thunderstorm or two toward afternoon. Drier air will spread
into the state behind the front, so precipitation will come to
an end by the mid-afternoon hours. There will be a fairly good
spread in high temperatures for the day given the frontal
passage; the Saint John Valley will be in the upper 60s to
around 70 while interior Downeast will top out around 80.

Wednesday night and Thursday...The upper low will cross just to our
north, bringing clouds to northern areas. Given the dry air behind
the front, don`t expect any rain from this system. Wednesday night`s
lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s north, and in the mid 50s
Downeast. Thursday will see temperatures mainly in the 70s, with the
warmest readings for interior Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure across New England will shift eastward as low
pressure lifts across the Great Lakes. This system will bring
the threat of showers to the area Friday into Sunday,
particularly Friday night and Saturday when the cold front
crosses the region. As is usual for the extended period, models
can`t agree on the exact details, especially frontal timing and
the associated precip placement. Sunday`s showers will be the
result of the passing upper trough and so should fall mainly
northern areas. the trough axis will move to our east Monday
morning, allowing dry weather to return. Clouds will decrease
from west to east through the day Monday; right now, it`s
looking like we should luck out for viewing the eclipse.
However, if the cold front/upper trough passage is delayed by
even just 6-12 hours, the eclipse could be hidden by clouds,
especially for people in eastern sections of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for northern terminals this morning, though very
localized patchy fog may drop restrictions to MVFR for less than
30 minutes specifically PQI. Expect VCTS after 18z this
afternoon with VFR conds. After 02z tonight for terminals north
of PQI restrictions drop to MVFR in low clouds and br. HUL will
dip to IFR after 06z.

BGR and BHB will start off with IFR restrictions before becoming
MVFR at BGR after 1330z. VFR this morning and afternoon before
dropping to IFR overnight. BHB will likely be IFR into the
afternoon before becoming MVFR for several hours and then
dropping back to IFR tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday through
Thursday night, though brief MVFR is possible in an isolated
shower or two, mainly at HUL. Showers will spread from west to
east Friday, with MVFR likely at all sites by 00z Sat. IFR will
be possible in any heavier showers, but expect MVFR to prevail
through a good part of the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed through tonight. Areas of
fog will affect the waters this morning and once again tonight.

SHORT TERM: Headlines are possible later Wednesday into Thursday as
long period south swell from Hurricane Gert affects the waters. Seas
of 5 to 7 feet are possible. Winds will remain under 20 kt through
Thursday, so any headlines would be for seas only.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Farrar
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...Duda/Farrar/Hastings
Marine...Duda/Farrar/Hastings