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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220751
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK EAST TOWARD WESTERN MAINE BY LATE TODAY PUSHING THE FRONT
BACK TO THE NORTH. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES BACK NORTH.
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN BY LATE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER
50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF
MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND
DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED
INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU.
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR
THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY
LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL
DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER
AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS
GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU...
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS
EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI
AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN
W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN
THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE
USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TO START ALL TERMINALS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL) AND THEN EVENTUALLY IFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS
(KBGR/KBHB) THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL
BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT...
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS COULD INCREASE TO 4 TO 6
FT BY TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THUS MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS MARGINAL
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN SCA FOR SEAS AT THIS TIME AND LET THE
NEXT CREW RE-EVALUATE THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE SCA
FOR SEAS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/ A
VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS.  STRONG SCA CONDS
WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG LOW
PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS...
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. LEVELS
ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN STEADILY
FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BTWN 1-2
INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR E AND
NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE AMOUNTS...
SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN
RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR LARGER
RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER RESPONDING
RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL WILL DEPEND
ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...
ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
HYDROLOGY...KHW