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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 232243
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ACROSS THE NORTH. THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT DOWNEAST.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SWWD ALONG THE QUEBEC/MAIN BORDER AND OVER
NH/VT/NY. SCTD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF
THE FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS IS DUE TO MUCAPES REACHING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF
AROUND 100 M2/S2. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST OF MAINE
TOMORROW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSYBS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ANS WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...RB/BLOOMER
MARINE...RB/BLOOMER