Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 232243 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 643 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS THE NORTH. THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT DOWNEAST. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SWWD ALONG THE QUEBEC/MAIN BORDER AND OVER NH/VT/NY. SCTD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS IS DUE TO MUCAPES REACHING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND 100 M2/S2. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST OF MAINE TOMORROW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSYBS SHOULD ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ANS WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RB/BLOOMER SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...RB/BLOOMER MARINE...RB/BLOOMER

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