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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 100938
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
438 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WELL...WHAT LEFT OF YSTDY`S OVRRNG LGT SN EVENT...MAINLY SCT FLURRIES...
IS MOVG E INTO THE MARITIMES. LEAVING PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES FOR
NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TDY AND THIS EVE AS A WEAK RIDGE OF SFC
HI PRES APCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
AND PROGRESSIVE S/WV MOVG E FROM THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND LOWER OH
VLY WILL BRING PERIPHERAL CLDNSS TO DOWNEAST AREAS AND PERHAPS LGT
SN TO THE OUTER ISLANDS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF DOWNEAST MAINE
BY AFTN. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE ORGANIZED
BAND OF PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS S/WV WILL REMAIN JUST OFF-SHORE
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL S OF THE GULF OF ME BY ERLY EVE. HI
TEMPS TDY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AFT ONLY RECOVERING ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEG F FROM ERLY MORN LOWS WITH A FAIRLY BRISK W WIND.

AFT A FAIR EVNG FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS WILL INCREASE LATE TNGT
WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES FOR NW AND FAR NE PTNS OF THE FA WITH THE
APCH OF CAN CLIPPER S/WV WHICH WILL BE THE HARBINGER OF DEEP...HI
RESIDENCE ARCTIC AIR MOVG INTO THE REGION LATER WED. OVRNGT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS N AND TEENS S IN SEMI-ARCTIC AIR AHEAD
OF THIS NEXT ARCTIC FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE PROFILE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG SNOW SHOWERS AS THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF
THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SQUALLS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NORTH OF HOULTON
AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS TOWARDS BANGOR. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
INTRODUCE BITTER COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE
PROSPECT OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF -20F FOR AROOSTOOK...NORTHERN
PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH IN
BANGOR...LOW TEENS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MINUS 10 TO 15 RANGE NORTH...ZERO TO MINUS 10 FOR
BANGOR AND INTERIOR DOWN EAST...AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE
COAST. THIS MAY BE A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IF WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE WILD CARD IN TERMS OF CLOUDS.
THIS SYSTEM COULD SET OFF A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BUT WILL OPT NOT TO INCREASE POPS AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS
THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON FRIDAY WITH SINGLE
DIGIT HIGHS NORTH AND TEENS FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SUBZERO READINGS IS PROBABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORGANIZES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...ALL MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL
OF OVER 7 INCHES. THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL MAY END UP IN NORTHERN
ZONES AS AN INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS AFTER THE LOW HAS RACED INTO
THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWS
THIS LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ACROSS DOWNEAST TAF SITES TDY...XCPT PERHAPS
BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS AT KBHB THIS AFTN IN ANY LGT SN. ACROSS NRN
TAF SITES EITHER LOW VFR OR HI MVFR WILL PREVAIL TDY INTO TNGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CREATE TEMPO IFR VIS FROM HUL
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE OPTD TO CANX THE SCA FOR INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052
FOR TDY INTO ERLY EVE...WITH LATEST FCST WIND GUSTS AND SEAS OVR
THIS ZONE XPCTD TO BE BLO 25 KT AND 5 FT. MEANWHILE...OVER OUTER
MZS050-051...WV HTS SHOULD BE AT OR JUST ABV 5 FT DURING THIS TM.
AFT 9 PM TNGT EST...WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 KT OR MORE...
RESULTING IN THE INCLUSION OF MZ052 BACK INTO SCA CONDITIONS WHICH
SHOULD CONT THRU THE REMAINDER OF TUE NGT INTO WED. WE USED A
BLEND OF 00Z OPNL AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND A BLEND OF WW3/
SWAN NAM AND GFS FOR WV HTS...WHICH HAD TO BE INCREASED ABT A FOOT
FOR THIS MORN TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST BUOY OBS.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE ADDED FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE BITTER COLD AIR MASS AND STRONG WINDS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW