


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --295 FXUS61 KCAR 101929 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 329 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A trough approaches from the west this evening and moves through the area Friday. High pressure will cross the region Saturday then begin to exit across the Maritimes Sunday. A cold front will slowly cross the region Monday into Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --An upper-level trough is currently positioned to the west of the area and continues to progress east. Large-scale ascent in combination with a surface trough is currently providing the necessary forcing for the development of showers and storms just to the west of Maine. These storms are expected to move into the North Woods and strengthen in an environment characterized by surface based instability of up to 1000 J/kg and 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear. This could result in the development of a few strong storms which may produce gusty winds. Storms should decrease in intensity this evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. Scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms are expected to persist tonight. Went lower than NBM for thunder given the limited elevated instability. Fog is expected to develop tonight as well due to the moist and stable low levels, primarily over the coast, Interior Downeast, and Central Highlands up through the North Woods. Some breaks in the clouds are expected early tomorrow before another round of showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday, primarily over the north and west. With the lack of a strong surface boundary initiating storms CAMs have had a difficult time discerning exactly when and where storms fire but there is decent agreement in scattered storm coverage during the afternoon hours. Surface based instability around 1000 J/kg and bulk shear near 30 kts should allow for a few strong storm clusters that may produce some damaging wind. Storms weaken in the evening as the heating shuts off. Some patchy fog may develop, especially in areas that have received rainfall.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Surface ridging, along with a building upper ridge, will bring generally partly sunny skies Saturday. However, low clouds/fog are also possible Downeast early which should eventually erode and retreat back across the Gulf of Maine. Surface high pressure begins to exit across the Maritimes Saturday night, with ridging extending westward back across the forecast area. Aloft, the upper ridge also begins to exit across the Maritimes while an upper level disturbance approaches late. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across much of the forecast area Saturday night. However, low clouds/fog could again move inland from the Gulf of Maine. The upper level disturbance should begin to cross the region Sunday. Low clouds/fog are possible early. Otherwise generally expect partly sunny skies. With support from diurnal heating, could also have a slight chance/chance of showers and thunderstorms across mostly northern areas. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday/Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --A slight chance/chance of showers and thunderstorms could persist across mostly northern areas Sunday night. Otherwise, expect partly/mostly cloudy skies. A cold front should begin to approach Monday with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. The front could stall across the region, while weakening, Tuesday. At the same time, an upper level disturbance is also possible. Expect a chance of showers/thunderstorms will persist Tuesday. The remnants of the weakening front could help support the slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm Wednesday. Otherwise, expect mostly/partly sunny skies. A cold front could begin to approach Thursday, though the timing is still uncertain. Dependent on the timing of the cold front, could have a chance of showers/thunderstorms Thursday. Near normal level temperatures are expected Monday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Tuesday through Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...Mainly VFR conditions the rest of today although possible MVFR in any rain showers. FVE has an isolated chance of a T-storm this afternoon and tonight. Left T-storms out of the TAF in CAR and PQI due to low confidence. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR after midnight in lowering clouds. BGR...Mainly VFR this afternoon. Conditions deteriorate to IFR/LIFR tonight in low clouds and fog but should improve to MVFR/VFR Friday. BHB...VFR/MVFR conditions this afternoon. IFR/LIFR returns tonight in fog and low clouds. An improvement to MVFR should occur Friday. All Terminals...Light SE winds becoming 5-10 kts this afternoon. Then back to light and variable tonight. Light S wind Friday, then light and variable Friday night. Patchy fog also possible Friday night. SHORT TERM: Saturday...IFR/LIFR early with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise, VFR. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Saturday night...IFR/LIFR with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday...IFR/LIFR early with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR with the slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm mostly north. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunday night...IFR/LIFR with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers/thunderstorms mostly north. South winds 5 to 10 knots. Monday through Tuesday...Variable conditions with any showers or thunderstorms. Also, with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise, generally VFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots Monday. Southwest/west winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM: A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 8 AM Friday morning until 8 PM Friday night given the cold waters despite mild air temperatures. Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory levels through Friday night. Patchy fog is expected to persist over the waters through Friday night as well. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Saturday through Sunday. Patchy fog Saturday through Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through Friday evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ Near Term...Melanson Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Melanson/Norcross Marine...Melanson/Norcross