Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170151 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 951 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will slide east across Quebec tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will crest over the area Thursday night. A warm front will approach on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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945pm Update... Minor changes to account for current conditions. Forecast in good shape. Mostly clear tonight with cool temperatures. However, temperatures won`t be as cool as they could be, as pressure gradient is enough to keep most areas from fully decoupling. Previous Discussion... A cool upper low in central Quebec will be sliding slowly east tonight as high pressure builds in from central Canada. Surface low pressure associated with the upper trough combined with the approaching high will increase the gradient across the area tonight, especially over the north. This will maintain a light breeze across the north overnight. Otherwise, tonight will be mostly clear across the area, with partial cloudiness over the far north with some clouds from the Quebec trough. Thursday will then be mostly sunny across central and Downeast areas with partial cloudiness over the far north where some stratocumulus from the upper low will be straying across. Temperatures tonight and Thursday will average around 5 degrees below average for this time of year. A high surf advisory will be up for the coast tonight and Thursday as swell up to 6 feet arrive at our coast from Hurricane Gert. The hurricane is passing around 500 miles south of the coast and heading northeast out to sea into the open Atlantic.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The start of the period will find the local area under a ridge of higher pressure. A low will be to the east over the Canadian Maritimes, and a frontal system will be stretching from the Great Lakes to the coast of Virginia. By Friday afternoon the cold front will move into SW Maine. Friday evening to central Maine, then the the Maine/New Brunswick border by Saturday morning. Higher pressure will begin to build into the area Saturday afternoon through the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A high pressure will be building over the area, as a cold front moves east into New Brunswick, with an associated low over central Quebec continues to move east. Sunday morning a trough of lower pressure will move through Northern Maine, bringing a few showers. The trough will clear the area Sunday afternoon, and the high pressure ridge will dominate the weather through Monday evening. A weak cold front will move through Maine Monday night and will be east of the area Tuesday Morning. Another cold front will move into western Maine Wednesday morning, then to New Brunswick by the end of period Thursday morning. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected at all sites tonight and Thursday. Ceilings of around 4000 feet should occur late tonight into Thursday morning over northeast Maine, which is just above MVFR levels. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions at all sites to start the period. A cold front will move into the area Friday afternoon bringing increase clouds and decreasing ceilings and visibilities. MVFR conditions at BGR and BHB mid afternoon Friday, decreasing to IFR Friday evening. MVFR conditions at HUL and PQI Friday evening, decreasing to IFR late Friday evening. MVFR CAR and FVE late Friday evening IFR after midnight. The cold front will clear the area Saturday morning with higher pressure building in. Improving conditions south to north with all sites returning to VFR by early afternoon. MVFR conditions on Sunday for CAR, FVE, and PQI as a trough moves through northern Maine bringing a few showers to the area, otherwise VFR through the end of the period. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA for high seas from hurricane Gert will be up today and tonight. This will be a long period swell of around 13 seconds will seas up to 6 ft tonight into Thursday. West winds may approach 25 kt in a few gusts Thursday as high pressure builds down from the northwest. SHORT TERM: An SCA maybe required on Saturday as a cold frontal system moves through the Gulf of Maine waters. Winds and seas will below SCA during the remainder of the period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Long period swell of around 13 seconds will affect the Downeast coast of Maine from this evening through late in the day Thu. The seas will build to around 6 ft on the coastal waters tonight into Thursday morning with the largest component of the seas being long period swell from Gert. High surf will affect the beaches producing rip currents and localized beach erosion. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Foisy Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...Bloomer/Foisy/Norton Marine...Bloomer/Foisy/Norton Tides/Coastal Flooding...Bloomer

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