Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290853 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 453 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move across the region today. High pressure returns tonight into Tuesday. Another frontal system will affect the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure remains to the east of New England while low pressure passes to the north of the state. A cold front will move across the region today behind the low pressure center. This will continue to produce showers and a few thunderstorms this morning then a gradual clearing trend is expected for later today as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will continue to build in from the west tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Another shot of rain heading our way Tuesday night into Wednesday and then cooling air for late week. Weak high pres will break down as it slides e on Tuesday with clouds increasing in the afternoon. Some showers are forecast to develop across the northern areas in advance of the preceding warm front during the afternoon and continue into Tuesday night. Activity appears to weaken overnight as the region gets in a pseudo-warm sector as blyr winds go sw. Atmosphere looks like it will destabilize on Wednesday w/showers breaking out ahead of the apchg cold front. CAPE values go to 700-1000 joules w/lis dropping down to -3. 0-6KM shear is progged to be at least 30 kts. This would be enough to allow for any convection to become organized. the NAM is much more robust w/the instability than the GFS. Decided to stay w/the daycrew`s assessment of have tstms for Wednesday afternoon into the evening. The best potential appears to be across eastern Aroostook County down into central Washington County back through Penobscot County. Attm, it does not look like severe weather but some storms could contain gusty winds if they can get going. Daytime temps both Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid 70s north and west w/upper 70s to around 80 for central and downeast areas.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Unsettled weather for Thursday into early Friday and then improvement for the weekend. Showers and tstms will be ending Wednesday evening as the front moves off the coast. A vigorous upper trof is forecast to swing across the region Thursday into Friday w/more showers and cooler temps. As a matter of fact, temps will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal by Friday. Daytime readings are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s across the north and west on Thursday w/mid 70s for central and downeast. Cooler for Friday w/mid 60s north and west and around 70 central and downeast. Upper trof is progged to move east on Saturday w/high pres moving in from the west. A slight improvement on temps Saturday by about 5 degrees and then back to near normal readings by Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Expect IFR/MVFR conditions this morning then VFR conditions this afternoon and tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR into Tuesday night and then a round of MVFR for the northern terminals north of KHUL on Wednesday w/some tstms possible. Tstms are possible for KBGR as well on Wednesday. Potential is there Wednesday night for MVFR/IFR for KBHB ahead of the apchg cold front. MVFR and perhaps a period of IFR, mainly for CIGS for Thursday as the upper trof moves into the region.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Sustained winds have been initialized with the NAM12 then have reduced model winds by 10 percent to account for expected high bias: For waves: Current observations showing long period swell dominating. Two long period wave systems are observed in spectral from 44027, one system at 15 seconds and another at 9-10 seconds. Both of these wave groups contain wave height`s of approximately 1 foot and appear to be coming from Hurricane Gaston. Based on spectral forecasts from the Wave Watch III expect both wave system will exceed 2 feet in height over the next 24 hours to to the long distance to the generation area (approximately 1200 NM). There is also a third local wind wave group which appears to represent a high bias in boundary conditions from the Wave Watch III. So will initialize wave heights with the Near Shore Wave Model then reduce heights by 2 feet to mitigate the high bias in boundary conditions. SHORT TERM: No headlines expected this term. Wave heights will build Tuesday night right into Thursday. The tropical systems out in the Atlc are expected to bring a sse swell into the Gulf of Maine. Waves will build to a range of 4-5 ft w/periods anticipated at 8-10 seconds. Winds will be around 10 kts right through the period.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Mignone/Hewitt Marine...Mignone/Hewitt

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