Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181907 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 307 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A MUCH COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WORKING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, AS CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM (KFVE IS ALREADY DOWN TO 31F). WITH CLEAR SKIES, THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER, THE ISSUE IS THE POSITION OF THE HIGH, WHICH WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT GRADIENT AND SLIGHT WINDS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY EASTERN MAINE. THIS COULD PROHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL COLD POTENTIAL, AS IT WERE. EVEN STILL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD, 25 TO 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR ANY SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DECOUPLE AND WINDS BECOME CALM. HAVE THEREFORE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE MORE NORTHERN AREAS THAT HAVE YET TO SEE A SOLID FREEZE, AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST. A CRISP FALL DAY IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW. WE`LL SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND THIS WILL INITIATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RIGHT NOW SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. THEN SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY ADVANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO INTO MUCH OF THE REGION AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF SPEED OF THE FRONT WITH 00Z ECMWF BEING JUST A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THAT SAID WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW AND KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MOST PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD WITH PREVIOUS RUNS GFS AND CANADIAN WANTING TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT RIDES UP THE COAST. THE RESPECTIVE 12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN NOW KEEP THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH. RIGHT NOW WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTING WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE DOES GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WILL BE A LIGHT EVENT CHANCE TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THEN TEMPS GO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS REST OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS SUCH, EXPECT A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT TONIGHT GIVING WAY TO A SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: MOST AREAS STAY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SITES ACROSS THE NORTH PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY COULD SEE MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING, WITH COLD AIR SPREADING IN BEHIND IT. THIS COLDER AIR WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET IN OFFSHORE FLOW. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 5 FT ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUTER WATERS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017- 031. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010- 032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...JORDAN LONG TERM...JORDAN AVIATION...HASTINGS/JORDAN MARINE...HASTINGS/JORDAN

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