Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 282302 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 602 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move away to the east tonight as low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. Low pressure will cross northern Maine Wednesday into Wednesday night then lift northeast of the area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 6 PM Update...Raised temps and lowered dew points across the area early in the overnight period. Also, backed off on cloud cover early on, then increased clouds quickly in the mid-evening period. Otherwise, no major changes this hour. The models are in good agreement through the period. Unsettled weather will dominate most of the period. High pressure will move east of the area tonight. A low over lake Michigan, with an associated warm frontal system that extends east into southwestern Maine. The low will move east to lake Huron the warm front will move to central Maine. By the end of the period the low will move to southern Quebec north of lake Erie, the associated warm front will remain across the area, the cold front will move into New Hampshire. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure across the area Wednesday evening will bring some light rain to the region, mainly across the north, with some drizzle and fog likely Downeast. The low will begin to lift northeast of the area early Thursday morning. Drier air moving across the area may allow any lingering showers to taper off for a while. As the low consolidates to the north on Thursday, wrap around moisture combined with a trailing upper low may result in snow showers across the north with a light accumulation possible in some areas. Drier and much colder air will follow in gusty northwesterly winds Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. An upper level trough will continue to dig into the northeast on Friday as very cold air continues to filter across the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure building in from central Canada combined with low pressure well to the northeast will bring bitter cold and windy weather on Saturday. This will be the coldest weather we have had in several weeks with wind chill advisories possible across parts of the region. Sunday will continue to be cold and windy although sunshine will likely result in some moderation in temperatures by mid afternoon. High pressure should crest over the area on Monday bringing much lighter winds, some sunshine and milder afternoon temps. Our attention on Tuesday focuses on a weak occlusion pushing across the area. The main low will be over central Canada. As the frontal boundary pushes into the area Tuesday some light snow may spread across the area. However, milder air pushing north ahead of the front will likely change the snow over to light rain or showers from south to north. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions all site early, with IFR conditions settling into the area tonight. BHB and BGR will drop to IFR around 11pm, HUL, PQI, CAR, and FVE falling to IFR around 1 am. IFR to MVFR conditions will prevail through the period. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds, fog and drizzle are expected Wednesday night. Conditions may improve to MVFR downeast late Wednesday night then VFR Downeast Thursday morning. MVFR conditions are likely across the north Thursday morning. MVFR conditions north and VFR conditions Downeast are likely Thursday afternoon with gusty winds. VFR conditions are expected Thursday night into Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will build tonight requiring a SCA tomorrow morning. Winds and seas are expected to continue to build during the day tomorrow. SHORT TERM: A gale watch is up for late Wednesday night into Thursday evening for southwesterly winds, becoming west northwesterly gusting up to 40 kt. Winds should diminish a bit on Friday. Strong gusty cold winds will likely require a gale again on Saturday on freezing spray may be possible Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening for ANZ050>052. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to midnight EST Wednesday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Norton Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer/Mignone Aviation...Norton/Bloomer Marine...Norton/Bloomer

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