Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 282302
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
602 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017
High pressure will move away to the east tonight as low pressure
approaches from the Great Lakes. Low pressure will cross northern
Maine Wednesday into Wednesday night then lift northeast of the area
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM Update...Raised temps and lowered dew points across the
area early in the overnight period. Also, backed off on cloud
cover early on, then increased clouds quickly in the mid-evening
period. Otherwise, no major changes this hour.
The models are in good agreement through the period. Unsettled
weather will dominate most of the period. High pressure will
move east of the area tonight. A low over lake Michigan, with an
associated warm frontal system that extends east into
southwestern Maine. The low will move east to lake Huron the
warm front will move to central Maine. By the end of the period
the low will move to southern Quebec north of lake Erie, the
associated warm front will remain across the area, the cold
front will move into New Hampshire.
Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the
coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure across the area Wednesday evening will bring some light
rain to the region, mainly across the north, with some drizzle and
fog likely Downeast. The low will begin to lift northeast of the
area early Thursday morning. Drier air moving across the area may
allow any lingering showers to taper off for a while. As the low
consolidates to the north on Thursday, wrap around moisture combined
with a trailing upper low may result in snow showers across the
north with a light accumulation possible in some areas. Drier and
much colder air will follow in gusty northwesterly winds Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. An upper level trough will continue
to dig into the northeast on Friday as very cold air continues to
filter across the region.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure building in from central Canada combined with low
pressure well to the northeast will bring bitter cold and windy
weather on Saturday. This will be the coldest weather we have had in
several weeks with wind chill advisories possible across parts of
the region. Sunday will continue to be cold and windy although
sunshine will likely result in some moderation in temperatures by
mid afternoon. High pressure should crest over the area on Monday
bringing much lighter winds, some sunshine and milder afternoon
temps. Our attention on Tuesday focuses on a weak occlusion pushing
across the area. The main low will be over central Canada. As the
frontal boundary pushes into the area Tuesday some light snow may
spread across the area. However, milder air pushing north ahead of
the front will likely change the snow over to light rain or showers
from south to north.
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions all site early, with IFR conditions settling
into the area tonight. BHB and BGR will drop to IFR around 11pm,
HUL, PQI, CAR, and FVE falling to IFR around 1 am. IFR to MVFR
conditions will prevail through the period.
SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds, fog and drizzle are
expected Wednesday night. Conditions may improve to MVFR
downeast late Wednesday night then VFR Downeast Thursday
morning. MVFR conditions are likely across the north Thursday
morning. MVFR conditions north and VFR conditions Downeast are
likely Thursday afternoon with gusty winds. VFR conditions are
expected Thursday night into Friday.
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will build tonight requiring a SCA tomorrow
morning. Winds and seas are expected to continue to build during
the day tomorrow.
SHORT TERM: A gale watch is up for late Wednesday night into
Thursday evening for southwesterly winds, becoming west
northwesterly gusting up to 40 kt. Winds should diminish a bit
on Friday. Strong gusty cold winds will likely require a gale
again on Saturday on freezing spray may be possible Saturday.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to midnight EST
Wednesday night for ANZ050>052.