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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 200958
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WITH
RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
6 AM UPDATE...DOWNSLOPING HAS KEEP RAIN VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVER
THE NORTHEAST TO DOWNGRADED RAIN TO JUST LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTHWHERE WHERE ONE TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. CLOSER
TO A HALF INCH OR MORE IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL BRING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE REGION THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST WHERE A SMALL SURFACE LOW WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS AND MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE CONCENTRATED. THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AROUND MIDDAY AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVIDING MODERATELY COOLER AIR TO THE
NORTH FROM WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ALONG THIS FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN MAINE GETS A SHORT RESPITE FROM A DAMP PATTERN ON TUESDAY IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  EXPECT
ONE THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.  THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CRITICAL IN TERMS
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE /SIGNIFICANT QPF OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/.  A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.  THE 00Z GFS IS ALMOST 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE.

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MVFR OVER THE
NORTH TO IFR DOWNEAST.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS NORTHERN SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY BE OVER THE WATERS
EARLY TODAY.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS ACROSS COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...BLOOMER/OKULSKI
MARINE...BLOOMER/OKULSKI