Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 312154 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 554 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 545 PM UPDATE: POPS WERE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVR SRN PTNS OF THE FA WHERE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A 50 MI WIDE BAND OF SHWRS SLIDING EWRD FROM NW NEW ENG. WE KEPT A CHC OF THUNDER EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO CG STRIKES OF NOTE OVR OUR REGION FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS IN A LOW SBCAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT GIVEN THE TROP LIKE AIR MASS OVR THE REGION...ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THRU THE EVE...WITH ANY TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LCLZD VERY HVY RNFL. FCST 6 HRLY QPFS OVRNGT WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE OVRNGT WERE MODIFIED TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS BASED ON TRENDS OBSVD FROM 5 PM OBS. ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...RB AVIATION...VJN/DUDA MARINE...VJN/DUDA

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