Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 020220 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 920 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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920 PM UPDATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY MON MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE MARITIMES. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DOWN EAST REGION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF THE AREA BY 10Z AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL PICK UP THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT SOME SPOTS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST MAY PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...BUT UNLIKELY THAT MANY AREAS RECEIVE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORIES BUT SUSPECT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM DOWN EARLY IN THE MORNING. ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO RAISE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST. FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT 850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2 AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR TO LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR. SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
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