Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 060204 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1004 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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925 PM UPDATE: THE TREND OF HRLY HRRR SIM RADAR MODEL SOLUTIONS OVR THE LAST FEW HRS IS TO SHOW LESS NWRD PROGRESS OF STEADY RN INTO OUR FA FROM JUST THE LAST UPDATE. THIS SEEMS TO MATCH UP WITH TRENDS SEEN IN LATEST REAL TIME RADAR REF IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS RN STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA LATE THIS EVE AND SFC OBS AND SAT IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN CLD CVR WITH A WEDGE OF DRY SUB CLD AIR OVR THE NW HLF OF THE FA XTNDG EWRD FROM QB. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...WE LOWERED FORECAST QPF AND POPS SOMEWHAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT OVR THE N AND CNTRL THIRDS OF THE FA. WITH BREAKS IN THE OVC OVR THE FAR NW...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE FASTER ACROSS BROAD VLY LCTNS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...SO WE LOWERED FCST LOWS OVR NW PTNS OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH THE UPDATE OF FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT FOR ALL OF THE REGION. ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. WE`RE ALREADY SEEING MOISTURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AS EVIDENCED BY PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE RAIN WON`T BE FAR BEHIND AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS WITH LAST NIGHT`S RAIN, DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION, WITH AREAS NORTH OF A HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET LINE SEEING JUST SOME SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO, WITH FAR WASHINGTON COUNTY RECEIVING A LITTLE MORE. THE RAIN WILL BE A QUICK SHOT GIVEN THE LOW`S RAPID FORWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IT`LL BE A BIT BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS WELL, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WOODS TO THE LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. PLEASANT WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY; EXPECT EVERYONE WILL SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO TO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST SPOTS, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONGEST; HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE THE CUT-OFF LOW FINALLY GETTING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN AND A DIGGING TROF MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR, BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THICKEN THRU THE DAY ON SAT. AS THE CUT-OFF GETS ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPR TROF AND ITS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, MAY HAVE SOME ISO TO SCT SHWRS LATE SAT AM THRU SAT NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE ON SUN. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT FELT CONFIDENT TO INTRODUCE LKLY TO LOW- END DEF POPS. CURRENTLY GOING FOR QPF OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NRML SAT, BUT INCR CLOUDS AND AFTN PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAMP DOWN TEMPS A BIT ON SUN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOME PRECIP LKLY TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE N AND E BORDERS AT 00Z MON START OF THE LONG TERM, BUT QUICKLY DIMINISHES. HWVR, SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS QUICKLY DEVELOP REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE UPR TROF DEPARTING THE REGION, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS TO LINGER UP NORTH. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN NEW ENG TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT, BUT ALSO DISAGREE QUITE A BIT ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP, SO KEPT POPS AT CHC FOR NOW. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS, SO FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO HAVE A BIT MORE CERTAINTY IF THAT TREND HOLDS. TEMPS ON MON LKLY TO BE A BIT BLW NRML BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR OR A BIT ABV NRML THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: ALL SITES CURRENTLY UNDER PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY, THOUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR. THEN CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE THE STEADIEST RAIN AS WELL AS THE LONGEST PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS (00Z-11Z). THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE JUST SOME SHOWERS AT MOST, BUT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z AS SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ALL SITES VFR BY 18Z. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES FRI NIGHT, EXCEPT PATCHY FOG CAN`T BE RULED OUT, SPCLY KHUL SOUTH TO THE COAST AS WINDS MAY BE A BIT LIGHTER THERE. HIGH CIGS SPREAD OVER THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUING VFR AT FIRST, THOUGH ANY SHWRS LATER SAT INTO SUN AM COULD BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE STATE FROM W TO E BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 06Z MON, EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. CIGS WILL INCREASE ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, BUT AS THE UPR TROF REMAINS OVER HEAD, COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES MON, SPCLY IF ANY SHWRS LINGER. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONVERTED OVER TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FRIDAY MORNING TO EXTEND THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL BE 5-9 FEET. SHORT TERM: WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE SHORT TERM, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. SEAS LOOK TO SETTLE SOME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, AND MAY ALLOW THE ANTICIPATED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO BE DROPPED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...KREDENSOR LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...VJN/KREDENSOR MARINE...VJN/KREDENSOR

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