Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280014 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 814 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPDATE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE EXITING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH LESSER SHOWER CHANCES TOWARD THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. LIKE CONSISTENCY OF GFS AND ECMWF LAST FEW DAYS SO HAVE USED THESE TWO MODELS FOR MODEL CONSENSUS FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER THURSDAY. THE BIAS CONSENSUS RAW WAS USED FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALSO BASED ON VERIFICATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. NORTHWEST MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF COOL TEMPS AS THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN THERE FIRST. WINDS IN MOST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE WITH TEMPS NOT GETTING AS COOL AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD BE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST MAINE TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A CRISP, CLEAR DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND VERY DRY AIR/LOW DEW POINTS. THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER, MUGGIER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOOKING GENERALLY UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AS DISTURBANCES RIDE EAST ALONG A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST PLACES WILL GET A WETTING RAIN AT SOME POINT FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT JUST WHERE AND WHEN THAT HAPPENS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTH EARLY ON (LATE SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY), WITH THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT TO DOWNEAST LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AN UNSETTLED AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY EVENING, WITH VFR EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MVFR AND IFR EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.
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&& .MARINE...
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE/FOISY

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