Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201100 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 600 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6AM UPDATE... LOW CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK INTO MAINE IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT LED TO BUMPING UP FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BY SEVERAL DEGREES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAUSED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND EAST AS CANADIAN MARITIME MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN AN EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED IN QUEBEC. ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN OF MOISTURE IS VERY LOW AND THIN...A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST TONIGHT WHERE THE COLUMN OF MOISTURE WILL NEARLY REACH H850 AND MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH HIGHS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP A LITTLE MORE THAN 5 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. VERY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE REGION. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW TOWARD OUR COAST MAY SUPPORT A BIT OF COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK NORLUN TYPE EVENT NEAR THE COAST SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHC POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW ALONG COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY OVER THE MARITIMES. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A STRATUS LAYER OVER OUR REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. OUR ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A VERY LARGE STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A BIT OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHERN AREAS HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. A WINDSWEPT RAIN IS THEN LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET OF WINDS CLOSE TO 85 MPH MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH DOWNEAST AND 40 MPH OVER THE NORTH AS THE OCCLUSION APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW WILL BRING A RISK OF FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE OCCLUSION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY PUSHING THE RAIN EAST INTO THE MARITIMES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. COOLER AIR WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAILING THE LOW MAY THEN BRING SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO CIGS RIGHT ON THE MVFR/IFR BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FLURRIES MAY DEGRADE VIS AT TIMES. SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN LOW CLOUDS. WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CANCEL SCA AS WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO A GALE OR POSSIBLY A STORM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG STORM LIFTS TO OUR NORTHWEST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER

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