Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211411 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 911 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure cresting over the area this morning will move to the east this afternoon. A weak occluded front will cross the region tonight. High pressure will be to our south Wednesday into Thursday as a small low pressure system tracks to our north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9:10 AM Update: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point. No other changes. Today will begin calm, clear and very cold with high pressure cresting over the area. The high will slide to our east this afternoon and a light return flow from the south will follow. Clouds will increase this afternoon ahead of a weakening occluded front approaching from the west. The front will push across the area overnight tonight. Some very light showers of snow, sleet or freezing rain are possible as the front moves through. Boundary layer temps warm above freezing overnight while surface temps drop below freezing bringing a potential for patchy freezing precipitation. Otherwise, tonight will be mostly cloudy across the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Milder low level southerly and upper level west/southwest flow sets up for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a weak cold that will move through late Thursday or Thursday night. Look for a healthy amount of cloudcover and maybe some fog Wednesday and Thursday thanks to the moist low level southerly flow over a wet snowpack. Temperatures will generally be above freezing Wednesday through Thursday night, although they will be hovering around freezing early Wednesday and again early Thursday. Any precipitation that is around will be very light, but do have to watch out for patchy freezing drizzle. Better shot at precipitation (most likely rain) comes just ahead of the front either Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening, although even this system looks to produce a quarter inch of rain at best...a pretty weak system. Models in good agreement overall, although there is about a six hour timing uncertainty with the cold front passage Thursday afternoon or evening. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence in a rain event and mild temperatures for the weekend. The weekend event will start out as snow or a mix for most areas Friday night or Saturday morning, but all areas should change to rain by late Saturday. This system has a good amount of moisture to work with and most areas have the potential to get around an inch of rain or a bit more. Colder air rushes back in Sunday and Sunday night, but a changeover to accumulating snow is unlikely. The most important question is whether the system will be enough to cause any flooding or breakup. Think that the north should be fine, but Downeast could see some smaller streams break up with perhaps some minor flooding. Something to watch. Much colder with below average temperatures early next week. Stormy pattern appears to be setting up for middle to latter part of next week. Too early to tell if systems will be rain vs snow. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today and tonight as high pressure moves off to the east. A few spots may briefly drop to MVFR across the north late tonight. SHORT TERM: Generally MVFR with patchy IFR Wednesday through Thursday night as moist low level southerly flow sets up. Can`t rule out patchy freezing drizzle early Wednesday and early Thursday. Likely becoming VFR Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will diminish early this morning and the air will become tranquil as high pressure crests over the waters. A light southerly flow will follow tonight ahead of a weak front sliding in from the west. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas generally below small craft levels, although they could approach small craft just ahead of a cold front late Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.