Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 300327 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1127 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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11:30 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR. LIGHT FLOW IS ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL SOME ISOLD TO WDLY SCT MINI SHWRS ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTN...BUT THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES. WITH LEFT OVR SFC-BL MOISTURE...WE XPCT POTENTIAL PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG OVR THE FA LATE TNGT WITH LGT WINDS AS A WEAK SFC HI APCHS FROM THE W...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLRG OF SC IS ABLE TO TAKE PLACE. AFT NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS AND THE DISSIPATION OF ERLY MORN PATCHY FOG...SKIES SHOULD BE PTLY SUNNY ON TUES RESULTING IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS. ANOTHER S/WV APCHG FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUE AND TUE NGT WILL BRING A CHC OF SHWRS TO NW PTNS OF THE FA... MAINLY LATE TUE NGT. OVRNGT LOWS TUE NGT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TNGT`S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AND A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP... QPF AND SKY COVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS INDICATE A SLOW TRANSITION FROM WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR MOST TAF SITES THIS EVE...WITH MVFR CLGS ATTMS ACROSS THE FAR N...SPCLY KFVE. MVFR TO IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TNGT IN PATCHY FOG...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLRG OCCURS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING NEEDED TO PRODUCE FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP AS DISSIPATING ST ERLY TUE MORN... LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR TUE INTO TUE NGT...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR CLGS LATE TUE NGT. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. && .MARINE... 930 PM UPDATE...SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN CANCELED. NEAR TERM: KEPT SCA FOR MARGINAL HAZ SEAS FOR OUTER MZS...BUT XPCT THAT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BLO 5 FT PERHAPS EVEN PRIOR TO 8 PM...THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TM. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS XPCTD OVRNGT THRU TUE NGT ATTM. SHORT TERM: WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS. FOR WAVES WILL USE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON/MCB SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE

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