Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 050306 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1106 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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UPDATE... A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST. COULD STILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...SHOWER CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER. ALSO...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WED WL SEE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MV ACRS CWA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DVLPNG DRG THE DIURNAL HTG OF THE DAY. CAPES ONLY EXPECTED TO APPCH 500 J/KG DRG THE DAY AND WL MAINLY BE TALL AND SKINNY. YET ANOTHER MID-LVL SPEED MAX WL SKIRT THRU ON SRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUPPORT ISOLD HAIL THREAT. MAX TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO HIT 70F ON WED. TEMPS IN DOWNEAST WL CLIMB INTO THE M70S THO COOLER ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WINDING DOWN. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INTRODUCE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE FROM RECENT DAYS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. COASTAL REGIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. THESE SHOWERS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN ZONES AND TEND TO DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS STABILITY INCREASES. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MEASURED IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DAYTIME HEATING AND A COLD UPPER TROUGH COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO BEYOND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE COOL AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING KEEPS THE RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH A WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...THEN WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST TOWARDS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR AN SCA IS LOW.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FARRAR SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW

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