Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 291946 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 346 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure returns tonight into Tuesday. Another frontal system will affect the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The cold front has pretty much moved off-shore at this hour and drier Canadian high pressure is following in the front`s wake. Skies will clear and winds will subside this evening in response to the building high, so it should be a good radiational cooling night. We didn`t see any significant rain through the day today, so don`t expect widespread fog development, though wouldn`t be surprised if some of the more sheltered river valleys see some patchy fog toward daybreak. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across Aroostook County and the North Woods, while Downeast areas will remain in the lower to mid 50s. The high will slowly slide over the region Tuesday morning and then to our east Tuesday afternoon. As such, expect plenty of sunshine in the morning, but clouds will increase during the afternoon. A warm front will approach late in the day, so a few showers may pop up across the far north mid- to late-afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s north and along the immediate coast, while central and interior Downeast will top out in the mid to upper 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Most models agree that an initial surge of moisture will move E into msly Nrn ptns of the FA from QB Tue ngt with shwrs as a lead s/wv alf moves E toward the FA from Cntrl Can. Rnfl amts look relatively lgt Tue ngt for now, with not enough elevated CAPE attm to mention thunder for this pd attm. There appears to be a break Wed morn before diffluent flow alf ahead of a stronger s/wv from Cntrl Can sets up ovr the FA for Wed aftn and erly eve. Fcst max SBCAPEs vary by model from less than 500 J/kg to upwards to 1000 J/kg, with mid lvl dry air possibly encroaching to far into the llvl moist mixed layer. If strong enough updrafts were to initiate, enough sfc-6km bulk shear exists for lclzd tstms capable of sig hail and strong to damaging gusty winds, but not certain attm to go with any enhanced tstm wording. Following any diurnally driven tstms erly Wed eve, Models indicate a baroclinic leaf of shwrs affecting msly Downeast ptns of the FA, where we went with low likely PoPs late Wed ngt into Thu morn, as most of the energy of the second stronger s/wv moves N of the FA. Meanwhile, mid lvl dry slotting will move into the Nrn hlf of the FA from QB by Thu. The crossing of the upper trof axis across Nrn ptns of the FA later Thu into Thu eve will bring sct low top shwrs to this ptn of the FA, with drying ovr Downeast areas. Temps will be near normal by day and a little abv normal at ngt due to cld cvr.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The models are in good agreement at the start of the period. A frontal system south of the area over the southern Gulf of Maine. An upper level trough extending across northern Maine, will be the major weather features at the start of the period. By Friday morning upper level trough will move through the state into the Gulf of Maine and higher pressure will build into the area. At this time high pressure is forecasted to dominate to the end of the period. A cold front will push into northwest Maine at the end of the period. A tropical low is forecasted to move across northern Florida Friday morning. The GFS is forecasting at this time to track north along the gulf stream being off the coast of the NC early Sunday morning, then it is expected to continue moving slowly north to a position east of Cape Cod and South of Bar Harbor by Tuesday morning. At this time it is forecasted to stay south of the Gulf of Maine waters. The ECMWF however maintains the high pressure ridge over the eastern seaboard and move the low to the east of northern Florida. It is early and and there are obviously different solutions for how this tropical low will track and it will need to be watch for changes in track and intensity. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool.
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&& .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. Occasional MVFR will be possible early this afternoon in isolated showers, mainly at KFVE and KCAR. Skies will begin to clear out after 21z and remain mostly clear through 15z Tuesday. Increasing clouds thereafter, along with an isolated shower or two late in the afternoon, but VFR is still expected. SHORT TERM: VFR all TAF sites thru Fri...xcpt briefly MVFR vsbys with any tstm or heavier shwrs Tue ngt into Thu eve.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: No headlines are anticipated over the next 24 hours. Swells from Hurricane Gaston have remained below 4 ft today and will remain so as the system slowly pulls away. Winds will also subside overnight as high pressure settles over the waters. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas apch...but should remain below SCA criteria ovr the outer waters Tue ngt into Wed, and remain well below SCA criteria Wed ngt into Thu and thru all of the short term alg the immediate coast. Primary wv pds abv 10 sec will result in potential mdt rip current risk alg local beaches tonight into Tue. Otherwise, there is a 6 sec wind wv pd component. Went with about 90 percent of WW3 guidance for wv hts this update.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...VJN Long Term...Norton Aviation...Hastings/VJN Marine...Hastings/VJN

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