Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 070514 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1214 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT...DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1214 AM...LOW PRES WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS NORTH OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NW MAINE TOWARD MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A HEAVY SQUALL WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO FAR NW MAINE BY AROUND 09Z AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE AREAS BY AROUND 11Z. THE LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS IT PRESSES SOUTH. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING FOR THE MORE INTENSE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THROUGH MID MORNING. THE INSTABILITY COULD REACH OVER H700 WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND EVEN UP TO 100 J/KG CAPE. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MID MORNING AS IT REACHES HOULTON AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS WITH THIS FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONFIDENCE STARTING TO BUILD IN REGARDS TO SNOW FOR LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THEIR IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, CLEAR TO START THE EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE. THE CLEAR SKIES, COLDER AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A 2ND LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE FROM THE SE. THIS 2ND LOW LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR CWA COME LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC GOING WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE STRONG HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM CANADA WOULD TEND TO MEAN JUST A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND A NUMBER OF THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW A 700MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LIFTING N. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO TRIGGER SOME SNOW W/DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE W/THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE FORCING TO THE E. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY IS TIMING AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE SLOWER W/THE SYSTEM OR MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE GFS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AND BEST LIFT COMING IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE AND BROUGHT POPS UP TO 60% THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME AND LEAN W/SNOW AS THE WX ELEMENT. GIVEN THIS SETUP, IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR SNOWFALL, BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS WE MOVE IN CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL MODELS AGREE WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN US UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RETREATING NORTH ATLANTIC LOW PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF UPPER TROF VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OPTED TO STAY WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR FVE AROUND DAWN AND REACH BGR BY AROUND 1 PM...WEAKENING WHILE MOVING SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH TUESDAY W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: GALES COULD BE SEEN BY EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF LATER AT NIGHT DOWN TO SCA LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/BRINGING GUSTS TO 35-40 KT W/THE STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY W/SEAS DROPPING DOWN TO 4-6 FT. LOW PRES PASSING WELL E OF WATERS COULD BRING A SSE SWELL INTO THE AREA W/5-7 FT FORECAST BY LATER WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MCW SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...CB/MCW/HEWITT MARINE...CB/MCW/HEWITT

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