Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 021340 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 940 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930AM UPDATE: GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY. TWEAKED SKY AND TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IF SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THAN EXPECTED. BUT WILL DO THAT IN A LATER UPDATE TO SEE HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD CIRRUS IN NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC LATER TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HUMIDITY WILL SURGE TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS A LACK OF MOISTURE AS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND AVAILABLE UPSTREAM RAOBS SHOW VERY LITTLE. THUS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NARROW BANDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED NO GREATER THAN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE A TWO PART EVENT WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. FIRST...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH MAX HEATING AND THE ELEVATED DEW POINTS TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST CAPE AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6 SHEAR VALUES AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK REASONABLE FOR A FEW STORMS...BUT DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME. HIGHS TODAY WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ISOLATED 90F READING POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE LOWER PENOBSCOT VALLEY. THE SECOND PART OF THIS EVENT SEEMS LIKE IT COULD UNFOLD LATER IN THE EVENING IN CENTRAL ZONES AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES. AS A RESULT...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD FROM THE CANGEMS GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS SOUTHWARD. EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND DEW POINTS ALSO REMAINING ABOVE 60F. BY LATE NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... CDFNT WL HV PASSED OFFSHORE BY THUR MRNG. COOLER AND DRIER WX WL FILTER INTO CWA DRG THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND 80F ACRS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND STRUGGLING TO HIT 70F OVR THE FAR NORTH. DWPTS THRU THE DAY WL DIP INTO THE 40S ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIPRES RAPIDLY BUILDS IN THUR NGT AS 1025MB HIGH SETTLES ACRS SRN QUEBEC. DRY NW FLOW CONTS THRU FRI MRNG, LEADING TO CLR SKIES OVRNGT WITH H9 TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WL YIELD WIDESPREAD MINS BY FRI MRNG IN THE 40S WITH U30S NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORTH WOODS. SFC HIGH WL SETTLE OVR STATE OF MAINE FRI NGT WITH EXCELLENT RADN`L COOLING CONDS. BUFKIT SNDGS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME SHOW SIGNIFICANT RIDGE/VLY SPLIT IN MIN TEMPS BY SAT MRNG. 590 HEIGHTS BUILD IN SAT FM THE WEST WHICH WL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PD OF SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXTNDD BEGINS MUCH THE SAME WAY THE SAME WITH A PD OF SUNNY, DRY AND WARM TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE WEEKEND. H5 RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN DRG THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH INCRSG CLDS ACRS THE FAR NORTH LATE SUN NGT AND PERHAPS JUST A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN DRY AIRMASS. FRONTAL BNDRY WL BE STRETCHED JUST TO THE NORTH OF CWA WITH WVS RUNNING ALONG FRONT IN ZONAL FLOW. FRONTAL BNDRY WL SAG SOUTH THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR OUTSIDE OF SCT/ISOLD TS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOG MAY CREEP INTO BHB AND COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH END OF THE WEEKEND UNDER EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS VERY HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS TODAY. SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING THUR NGT. THIS MAY LEAD TO WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 25KTS AND POSSIBLY SEAS APPCHG 5FT. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IS LOW. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BERDES/MCW SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...FARRAR AVIATION...MCW/BERDES/FARRAR MARINE...MCW/BERDES/FARRAR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.