Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221043 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 643 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pres will continue to bring fair conditions into today. Low pres from central Canada will move across the region tonight into Friday bringing rain to the region. Colder air is expected for the first full weekend of Autumn as Canadian high pressure builds in behind the low.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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645 AM Update... Adjusted the hrly temps/dewpoints this morning based on the latest obs. Dropped the mention of patchy fog. Some wind this morning has kept the blyr mixed. Some clouds moving toward the region from Quebec. This cloudiness will not do much to limit sunshine this morning. Mid and high clouds will fill in across the area by the afternoon. Rest of the forecast ok for now. Previous Discussion... Pleasant today and then rain arriving tonight. High pres will slide across the region today. In the meantime, there is a weak cold moving into NW Maine attm that will slide se this morning and hit the coast by around noon time. 00Z ua did show some moisture residing at the 850-700mb layer associated w/the front. Some of this cloudiness will drift across northern areas this morning but will be nothing more than scattered in nature. There is some cooler air behind the front that will sweep into northern and western areas w/nw winds. Further s across central and downeast areas, the cooler air will be held off til later in the day. This will allow for downsloping due to a wnw wind to push temps into the mid and upper 70s. Northern and western Maine will see daytime temps in the mid to upper 60s and much cooler than Wednesday. Increasing clouds later this afternoon in advance of the low pres system that has been advertised to move into the region tonight. Temps will fall back for a while in the early evening but should level off and actually rise a bit by early Friday morning. Far nw areas such as Estcourt Station could drop to the upper 30s before leveling off. The rest of CWA from Northern Maine to the Downeast will be in the 40s and low 50s. Now we will move the expected rain. As stated well by the daycrew on Wednesday, a northern shift in the rain shield has been seen in the model guidance including the 00z run of the ECMWF. For continuity, decided stay w/the daycrew`s thinking of bringing pops to 90-100% and go w/rain. Heaviest rainfall will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA arriving by around 11 PM. There could be a period of heavy rainfall especially from 09-12Z early Friday morning. The NAM12 showed decent llvl convergence in conjunction w/a decent jet max of 40-45 kts. Rainfall amounts by 12z(8am)Friday will be on the order of 0.50-0.75 inches across the northern and western areas. Rainfall amounts will drop off as one travels s of a Houlton to Greenville line.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Friday will start off on the rainy side across much of the forecast area as a weak area of low pressure tracks east across central and downeast Maine Friday morning. The rain will taper to showers from northwest to southeast by Friday afternoon as the low tracks east into New Brunswick. High temperatures on Friday will range from the mid to upper 50s across the north and low to mid 60s across central and downeast. Much drier and cooler air will arrive Friday night in the wake of the low as a large area of high pressure builds toward the region from central Canada. Expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies across the north and mainly clear skies downeast. Lows Friday night are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s across northern areas. There will likely to be some stratocumulus clouds around the area with the upper trof across the region and a bit of a gradient could keep winds from completely decoupling. These factors may mitigate widespread frost development. Across downeast areas, lows will range from the low to mid 40s. The weekend will definitely feel fall like as a large ridge of high pressure continues to build southeast out of central Canada on Saturday. Expect partly to mainly sunny skies across the region. Highs on Saturday will only range from the low to mid 50s north and upper 50s to around 60 downeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Generally fair weather conditions will prevail through the long term portion. High pressure will build across the region Sunday and Monday with dry weather and temperatures a bit below normal for this time of year. The high will move east later Tuesday through Wednesday with temperatures moderating to near normal by mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR into the evening for all terminals. A drop to MVFR expected by 03-06z across the northern terminals as rain moves into the region. Conditions are expected to drop to IFR by 09Z. VFR for KBGR and KBHB. SHORT TERM: Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions are expected Friday in rain with conditions improving to VFR later friday afternoon. Generally VFR conditions are then expected Friday night through Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines are expected. Winds will remain light 10 kt or less today. There is a swell component out on the waters attm per the latest obs w/a period of 10-11 seconds. Seas were around 2 ft and expected to stay that way through today. A shift in the wind direction to the s is expected tonight w/an increase to 10-15 kt as low pres passes by the n. Seas will build a bit to around 3 ft. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas should generally remain below small craft advisory levels through the period. Visibility will be reduced on Friday to 1 to 3 nm in rain at times. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Hewitt/Duda Marine...Hewitt/Duda

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