Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251110 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 610 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND STATES ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6 AM UPDATE: NW WINDS ARE PICKING UP AS THE UPPER TROF APCHS. SOME LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR IMAGERY IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. DECIDED TO KEEP 20% POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO FALL BACK ACROSS FAR W AND NW AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIT THIS MORNING AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE TROF. REST OF THE FORECAST ATTM UNCHANGED. THE UPPER TROF COULD TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE POTENT W/THE SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL SHOWING SOME SB CAPE OF AROUND 40 JOULES FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER W/ITS INSTABILITY BY DOES POINT TO SOME DECENT PVA AT 500MBS WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORCING. DECIDED TO CARRY 20% POPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN THINGS WILL SHUT DOWN AS NW FLOW TAKES OVER AND FORCING WEAKENS. THAT COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE CWA IN EARNEST BY THE AFTERNOON AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS ARE HIT EARLY. WE ARE TALKING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AND POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST. FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST, READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-15F BY LATE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL KICK UP AS WELL W/GUST POTENTIAL TO 30+ MPH INTO EARLY EVENING. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH EARLY WILL WIND CHILL CONCERNS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE DOWNEAST REGION WHICH COULD INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE QUICKLY AND THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES W/WINDS FORECAST TO DROP OFF BY 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN THAT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP TO A RANGE -25 TO -30 ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, DECIDED TO GO W/A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...MAJOR WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 10 T0 15 ABOVE DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT SNOW TO START TO BREAK OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY AND THEN REACH FAR NORTHERN AREAS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST MAINE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING TUESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS WHERE A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50 KT AT 925 MB WILL CROSS THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES ON TUESDAY WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINAL THIS MORNING W/A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KFVE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS REACHING NEAR 30 KTS WILL LEAD TO SOME TURBULENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHORT TERM: VFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SIGNIFICANT RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING. THE REASON FOR THIS IS FOR THE SECOND SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN ON A NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING. STAYED W/SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS W/GUSTS TO 35 KTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR GALES WILL BE ACROSS THE OUTER ZONES. ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AS COLD TEMPERATURES COMING ACROSS THE WATERS ON THE NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY. LOCAL FREEZING SPRAY PROGRAM INDICATES MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS SOME OVERWASH FOR SEAWALL ROAD IN HANCOCK COUNTY. THE LOCAL WAVE RUNUP PROGRAM INDICATES SOME MINOR OVERWASH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON(AROUND 1 PM). HIGHER WAVES(8-10 FT) AND A SE SWELL COMPONENT COULD LEAD TO SOME SPILLOVER. THE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE NW WIND THAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD OFFSET THE RUNUP OF THE WAVES. ATTM, DECIDED NOT TO GO W/ANY COASTAL ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTATION OF THE OVERWASH APPEARS TO BE MINOR. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY THE DAYCREW. SHORT TERM: A STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 KT. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 NM IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

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