Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 141055 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 555 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region tonight through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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5:55 am update: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew points based on latest observations. No other changes. Intense low pressure is currently located to the northeast of the region. This system continues to move away to the northeast. Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will crest over the area today then move to the east. Weak low pressure will pass to the north of the state tonight. A cold front trailing the low will move across the region late tonight. This may bring a few snow showers but not much precipitation is expected with this system. High pressure will then build in from the west Sunday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 trof mvg twd Hudson Bay tonight wl cross the state Sun mrng with vry minimal snow showers expected as it does so. May see isold snow showers in orographic lift arnd daybreak Sunday but quickly diminishing as the mrng wears on. 1030mb sfc high wl be building twd the area drg the day resulting in clrg skies. Expect maxes on Sun to be some 5-10 degrees blo normal with highs in the single digits acrs the Crown to l/m 20s for Downeast. Ridge axis wl be bisecting the CWA Sun night with excellent radn`l cooling conds in place early, tho mid clds wl be mvg in fm the west arnd midnight. SW flow brings temps up for Mon highs close to normal. Wk system skirting acrs nrn Quebec may bring isold snow showers to the far north drg the day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Med range guidance is in two different camps at the start of the long term. 00z GFS keeps 1025mb hipres confined to Newfoundland at 12Z while NAM and EC are stronger with hipres and further south, keeping colder air in at the surface longer. This may set up a cold- air damming scenario for next system mvg in fm the west on Tue ngt. System due in for Tue night into Wed is currently spinning off the Baja. All med range guidance brings system up thru the OK/TX panhandles early in the week and begin to differ on details as it appchs the Great Lks on Tue. GFS brings H5 low acrs Downeast on Wed with GEM and EC taking a weaker system south of Cape Cod. For Thu night EC is fcstg another upr lvl trof swinging thru while GFS indicates a s/wv ridge building in. Given disparity in all models late in the pd hv gone with Superblend with lkly pops expected Wed then chc pops thru Thur. Main question centers on ptype for Wed but hv gone with a general rain/snow mix, as there is plenty of time to work out the details. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR Conditions are expected through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR Sun morning until Mon. MVFR possible across northern terminals Mon morning, mainly at FVE and CAR. MVFR/IFR expected to move in late Tue afternoon into all terminals with snow starting off at night, then mixing with rain Wed afternoon at BHB and BGR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: 5:55 am update: Have removed freezing spray advisory. Have used the GFS20 to populate sustained winds through tonight. Expect off shore winds to fall below sca later this morning. For waves: Currently off-shore wind wave is the primary wave system with a secondary longer period system consisting of southerly swell (1 foot/8 seconds). Expect the combined seas to fall below 5 feet later this morning as winds diminish. Will use the Near Shore Wave Model to populate waves. Freezing spray advisory will be discontinued as winds diminish. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions possible on Sun in cold advection with NW winds gusting to aoa 25kts into Sun evening. Seas will be from 2-5 feet in offshore flow.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ001>006-010. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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