Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290428 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1228 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1228 AM UPDATE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN MAINE BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES. A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE...MAINLY EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CLEARING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE NOW IN MUCH OF NW MAINE AND THE AREA OF CLEARING WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS TO BE CLEAR OR AT LEAST P/CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE WEATHER TONIGHT. CHILLY, RAW EVENING OVER NORTHERN MAINE WITH DRIZZLE, LIGHT SHOWERS, A DECENT NORTH BREEZE, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND FIXING TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR THIS. ALSO TWEAKED SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS, WHICH IS CLOUDY NORTH OF MILLINOCKET AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF MILLINOCKET AS OF 920 PM. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE MAIN PUSH BEING OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE EAST OF BANGOR AND LINCOLN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS OF 630 PM, SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MAINE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. RIMOUSKI HAD A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN EARLIER, AND PER WEBCAMS, THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE REACHED ST QUENTIN IN NORTHWEST NEW BRUNSWICK. EXPECT THE LIGHT SHOWERS TO REACH NORTHEAST MAINE BY MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DROPPING IN A HURRY EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE GET A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. FRENCHVILLE IS DOWN TO 55 DEGREES AS 6 PM. LATER TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE, THUS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COOL AS THEY COULD BE OTHERWISE. HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM FRENCHVILLE TO HOULTON. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR WEST OF BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR. THE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST MAINE WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR FOR FRI. SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS. SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS

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