Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171434 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1034 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will crest over the area today. A weak warm front will cross the area from the west by evening...followed by a weak cold front late tonight. A ridge of high pressure from the Ohio valley will cross the region Wednesday...then settle south of the region for the late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1015 AM Update: Minor adjustments were made to the tmg of the cld cvr into Nrn ptns of the Rgn from QB xpctd later tdy. Fcst hrly temps/dwpts were also adjusted to msly unchgd fcst hi temps this aftn based on trends seen from mid morn sfc obs. Lastly, prelim work was done with fcst cld cvr and Nrn shwr PoPs tngt. Orgnl Disc: The ridge of high pressure will move through the area this morning with winds shifting from northerly to southwesterly very quickly. This means warmer temperatures for today with highs in the low to mid 50s under sunny skies. The SW winds will increase this afternoon as the high slides to the south and gusts over 20 mph are expected in northern zones. Clouds will increase from the northwest as the warm front approaches. The parent low for this frontal system will be with a low moving from James Bay towards Labrador. The accompanying upper level shortwave with this system will be weakening today and tonight as a strong upper level ridge builds behind it. For these reasons and the fact that the system will be moisture- starved in a dry NW upper flow, will only go with slight chance pops in northern Aroostook County this evening...and none elsewhere. What this system will do is generate enough cloud cover to keep Tuesday night`s lows in the upper 30s and set the stage for much warmer temperatures on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build across the region Wednesday, then exit to the east Wednesday night. Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected across northern areas Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the region. Clear skies are expected across the forecast area Wednesday night. A warm front will cross the region early Thursday, with a cold front crossing Thursday night. Generally expect mostly sunny skies across the region Thursday, though cloud cover will begin to increase across northern areas during the afternoon. Partly cloudy skies are expected across the forecast area Thursday night, with a chance of showers mostly across northern areas. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Wednesday/Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build across the region Friday through Saturday, then begin to exit across the maritimes Sunday. Mostly clear skies are expected Friday/Saturday, with mostly/partly sunny skies Sunday. A slow moving cold front will approach from the west Monday, with cloud cover increasing in advance of the front. Could also have a slight chance of showers Monday, with increasing shower chances Monday night. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Friday through Monday. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions through the period with the slight chance of MVFR cigs near 3000ft later tonight for sites north of Presque Isle. There will be no cigs and excellent vis after sunrise until late this afternoon and evening when cigs above 5000 ft arrive north of HUL. SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Wednesday through Saturday. However, occasional MVFR conditions are possible across mostly the north and mountains Thursday night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will pick up tonight and seas will move towards 5 ft. SW gusts to 30 kt will be possible. In spite of the SW winds, it looks like decent mixing rather than a stable situation and have opted for an SCA in the outer waters. Will not issue for the intracoastal waters around MDI. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are possible early Wednesday across much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters. Conditions are then expected to be below small craft advisory levels later Wednesday through early Thursday. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected to develop again later Thursday and persist Thursday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross

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