Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 130813 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 313 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move to the Gulf of Saint Lawrence today. A ridge of higher pressure will build into the area this afternoon, and will remain over the area until the next system moves into Maine on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A deep area of low pressure along the Washington County coast early this morning will continue to deepen and lift north today. The low is expected to be in western Labrador late tonight. As the low lifts north today a strong cold front will sweep across the area with the cold air filtering in rapidly from the southwest. There will still be a mild air mass aloft across far eastern Maine at 12Z with 925H temps well above freezing along and near the Maine/New Brunswick border all the way north to the Saint John Valley. As of 3 am, it is raining at Caribou and the temperature is up to 35F. Very little in the way of precipitation falling across the Bangor Region and across Downeast area early this morning. Temperatures range from around 50F along the Washington County coast to the low 30s in the Bangor area. Plan to cancel the winter weather advisories and warnings with the exception of zones 1, 3, 4, and 10. This is not to say that there will not be slick spots where there was already freezing rain and snow, but with little in the way of additional new snow or ice this morning it does not warrant keeping the headlines going. Across the northeast zones, mostly rain early this morning that will transition to snow showers by late morning. The deformation zone associated with the low sets up mainly to the west of the area in Quebec, so not sure that there will even be much in the way of steady snowfall falling this afternoon across the western zones, but some snow showers and gusty wind along with patchy blowing snow is likely across the north and mountains this afternoon. It is possible that the warnings in the west will be able to be cancelled early, but will let the day shift get a look at just where the deformation zone sets up during the day. A quick inch or two of snow may accumulate in some spots in the north and mountains this afternoon into this evening. As the low lifts north tonight it will remain cloudy across the north and mountains with a few snow showers and some blowing snow. Partly cloudy Downeast. Any standing water on untreated surfaces will freeze. Temperatures by morning will be in the single digits north to the teens along the coast, with wind chills below zero. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The model guidance is in good agreement through the short term period of the forecast. An upper level low over eastern Quebec will influence the weather for the area through much of the period. The low over eastern Quebec will slowly move NE towards the Maritimes Thursday. Another low pressure system will move into the north Atlantic near the NJ coast and will remain south of the Gulf of Maine waters exiting the region Thursday afternoon. Higher pressure will build into Southern Maine. By early Friday morning the low over Quebec will move into the Maritimes, and higher pressure will build into northern Maine. Another low and frontal system will move through the Great Lakes region, reaching western Maine by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended models are in good general agreement at the start of the period. The extended models continue to indicate that they weather through the period will be influenced by an upper level low over Northern Quebec. It will spin up clipper system on a 12 to 18hr interval. No significant storms through the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR and at times LIFR at the northern terminals will improve to MVFR this evening, but occasional IFR or LIFR will remain possible at times tonight in passing snow showers. LIFR to IFR at KBGR and KBHB will improve to MVFR this morning and to VFR by late in the day. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions across northern Maine with scattered snowshowers. VFR conditions for Southeastern Maine. VFR condition will extend into northern Maine Thursday afternoon as higher pressure ridges in. VFR conditions will remain into Friday evening, a frontal system moving into western Maine Friday will displace the high pressure ridge. Ceilings will begin falling in the afternoon Friday. MVFR conditions BHB and BGR early evening, spreading to other sites by midnight. IFR conditions at BHB and BGR early AM Saturday. Everywhere by morning in snow and snowshowers. The frontal system and associated low will clear the area Saturday evening, clearing VFR conditions return to all sites by late Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions will continue thru the day Sunday, MVFR in snowshowers Sunday evening as the next system moves in. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A gale warning is in effect from late this afternoon through tonight as a strong area of low pressure lifts well to the north of the waters and a strong pressure gradient continues across the area. SHORT TERM: A SCA for winds and seas transitioning to an SCA for seas on Friday may be required. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ001- 003-004-010. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...CB/Norton Marine...CB/Norton

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