Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211010 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 610 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build south of the area today. Low pressure will approach from the west on Tuesday. The low will track to our north Tuesday night into Wednesday as it brings a cold front across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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605 am update... Mild early morning across the forecast area with current temperatures running around 60 degrees. Just minor tweaks made to hourly temps/dew points. Only significant change was to add patchy fog the northern areas tonight, specifically where we are expecting the possibility of isolated evening showers and thunderstorms. previous discussion A southwest flow around high pressure to our south will transport unseasonably warm air across northern and down east Maine today. Expect mainly sunny skies across the region. H925 temperatures are forecast to reach around +22C yielding high temperatures in the low to mid 80s across much of the area away from the immediate coast. A warm and humid night can be expected across the region tonight as high pressure remains to our south. A cold front will approach far northern Maine from Quebec this evening. The front will stall just north of the region overnight. Expect partly cloudy skies across northern areas along with an isolated thunderstorm this evening and mainly clear skies down east. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tue will be ptly to msly sunny, very warm, and humid. Aftwrds cumuliform cldnss will increase in the aftn across the N with late day shwrs and tstms spcly across the NW as a cold front from QB supported by a sig s/wv alf apchs. Best support of shwrs and tstms will be Tue ngt for most of the Rgn as the front begins to cross and the s/wv alf pivots ENE just N of the Rgn. Will mention hvy rn and gusty winds as linear tstm segments appear likely Tue ngt with good frontal forcing and elevated CAPE, with very hi fzg lvls making hail unlikely. Many, but not all lctns could experience an inch or more of rnfl before shwrs exit the FA Wed morn. In the wake of the cold front Wed aftn and ngt, cooler and drier air from cntrl Can will ovrsprd the Rgn. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cannot rule out isold day tm shwrs with weak s/wvs periodically crossing spcly Nrn ptns of the Rgn, otherwise, ptly cldy skies by day and msly clr skies by ngt is xpctd this late week into next weekend with both cooler hi and low temps compared to the near and erly short term pds. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR conditions xpctd all TAF sites Tue...then clgs/vsbys lowering to MVFR and then IFR Tue ngt into Wed morn in shwrs, tstms, and fog. All TAF sites should then improve back to VFR behind a cold front Wed aftn and cont so thru the late week. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns initially, but SW winds and wvs could apch and possibly exceed SCA thresholds Tue ngt into Wed morn just ahead of a cold front. In addition, marine fog could become an issue Tue ngt into Wed morn as moist tropical air streams Nwrd across cold Gulf of ME waters. Aftwrds, winds, seas and fog should diminish Wed aftn and ngt as winds become offshore. Went sig blo WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts Tue ngt into Wed morn given hi sfc wind bias input into this guidance in this flow regime this tm of season. Otherwise, we kept within 80 to 90 percent of the guidance for the rest of the fcst. Primary wv pds will msly in the 5 to 7 sec range. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN

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