Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160220 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 920 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will crest north of the area tonight. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Tuesday into Tuesday night and track near Nova Scotia on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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9:22 pm update: Low stratus covers most of the CWA as of 9 pm, although there are some spots in far northern Maine with breaks in the clouds. Most notable in far northwest Maine where the temperature has dropped to 20 below at Estcourt Station, where most areas in far northern Maine are closer to zero. There continues to be some areas of very light snow/flurries, but any accumulation is not expected to amount to a dusting in a few spots, especially so from Houlton south. Made some tweaks to the temperatures and kept flurries in the forecast for the remainder of the night. Previous discussion... Currently high pressure is centered to the north of the State and ridges southward across the region. At the same time low pressure is developing to the east of the Gulf of Maine and is producing some very light snow in some coastal sections and off- shore. This low will move to the northeast and away from the region Tonight while high pressure remains over the State. Low temperature tonight is not expected to be as cold as last night due to high and middle clouds present due to the low passing well to the east. More high clouds are also expected late tonight from a weak system approaching from the west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Should be just starting to see vry lgt snow spread into the area by the start of the short term. Coastal front looks to set up Tue evng and expect lgt snow wl begin to break out in convergence area along frontal bndry and continue thru Wed aftn. Latest med range guidance is in two different camps with the NAM/GFS slower and further south than EC/CMC. As expected this result in significant discrepancies in QPF amnts for Wed aftn. NAM/GFS indicates around 0.15" liquid falls acrs Downeast btwn 18-00z, whereas 0.30-0.40" falls fm EC/CMC. For the time being hv gone more twd a compromise btwn 12z and 00z with somewhere btwn 0.30-0.50 inches falling over interior Downeast and the coast drg the day. This translates to roughly a 3-6 inches of snow falling thru the day into the evening hrs. Question wl be whether mixing can occur along the immediate coast with srly flow drawing in warmer temps at the coastal front. This can be ironed out in more detail as the event draws nearer, tho it does appear some rain may occur Wed aftn along the coast. Fortunately this looks to be a progressive system with sfc low only expected to drop to around 1005mb in the Gulf. As the low pulls east into the Maritimes Wed night H5 trof wl swing thru Thur morning with vry little cold advection occurring bhnd it. This may be enuf to squeeze out vry lgt snow showers Thur morning and aftn but wl allow temps to rebound to nr normal values for maxes. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly zonal flow with weak disturbances rippling thru wl mark the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Isolated snow showers wl be possible acrs the north Fri. Better chc for snow exists Sat north of Katahdin with temps moderating to nr freezing for highs. After that zonal flow wl return to the CWA until early in the week. By the end of the pd a strong upr lvl wv wl dive into the upr Midwest and likely induce cyclogenesis heading twd the northeast. What bearing this wl have on the fa rmns to be seen as temps wl be moderating under building ridge. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Predominately MVFR tonight at the terminals with ceilings around 2k ft agl. The clouds will thin out in spots, but confidence on where and when is very low. A better chance that conditions will improve to VFR during Tuesday morning. SHORT TERM: VFR on Tuesday. MVFR/IFR set in at southern terminals Tue evening then across the north toward Wed morning. Restrictions in IFR and possibly LIFR during the day Wed, especially at BGR and BHB, in snow. Expect conditions will improve in the south early Thur morning with low cigs expected across the north in low stratus into Thur afternoon. Ocnl MVFR cigs expected north of HUL through the end of the short term with light snow showers expected on Sat.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained wind speed. For waves: The primary wave system is currently northeasterly wind wave (around 4 feet/5-6 seconds). The is also a secondary long period southeasterly swell system present (2-3 feet/10 seconds) and showing up in spectral at 44027. This wave group continues to subside. Combined seas are currently running around 5-6 feet and expected to subside to below 5 feet by late tonight. Have used the current NWPS Model to initialize the wave grids. Will keep current timing for SCA. SHORT TERM: Expect levels will remain blo SCA levels thru the day on Wed. Serly swell will move in Wed evening ahead of low pressure. NW winds Wed night may produce wind gusts aoa 25kts for the outer waters on Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...CB/Mignone/Farrar Marine...CB/Mignone/Farrar

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