Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261455 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 955 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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930 AM UPDATE: WILL KEEP THE WIND ADV UP OVR THE CURRENT ADV AREA THRU 21Z...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BY AFTN SOMEWHAT NEGATING A 10 KT DROP OFF OF 0.5 TO 1.0 KM AGL WINDS FROM 50KT THIS MORN TO 40 KT THIS AFTN. ONLY NRN PTNS OF ZONES 5 AND 6 ARE AFFECTED BY THIS POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN SOME POWER OUTAGES THAT OCCURRED LAST NGT OVR PTNS OF THE N...RATHER BE SAFE THAN SORRY ATTM. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON TRENDS NOTED FROM LATEST SFC OBS AT 9 AM FROM THE PREV FCST OF HRLY TEMPS AT 9 AM. SKY CVR FCST FOR TDY LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY. ORGNL DISC: MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT MILLINOCKET NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A COUPLE EVEN TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN NORTHEAST QUEBEC. EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY. STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH, MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS

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