Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 090156 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 956 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 945 PM. UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP CHANCES BACK TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATED SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN VT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. 00Z UA SHOWED A VIGOROUS S/WV IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS SWINGING ACROSS NYS. THIS S/WV IS SHOWN BY THE HRRR AND THE NAM TO LIFT ACROSS QUEBEC AND WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS DID INDICATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE W/ELEVATED CAPE HITTING 500-600 J/KG. PWATS RUNNING 1.25-1.50 INCHES W/0-6KM SHEAR OF 25 KTS. DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION OF TSTMS OVERNIGHT W/THE BEST THREAT ACROSS THE WNW. LESS OF A CHANCE FURTHER E DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE BLYR. KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION COULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A LEFT OVER SHOWER AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT SKIES BE BEGIN CLEARING AS WE GET INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND MID 70S TO EVE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOL LOW TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SHELTER VALLEYS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATER IN THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND AND AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY, BUT ON SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY, LOOK FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO INCH CLOSER WITH INCREASED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW, MORE HUMID AIR, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING/COOLING THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: SITES EXPECTED TO STAY VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: UPDATE: SEAS STRUGGLING TO HIT 5 FT THIS EVENING. THEREFORE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE INITIALLY FOR THE SEAS TO BRING THEM DOWN A FOOT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS GOING BUT BACKED UP THE TIMING OF THE SWELL BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FT. SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FOR SEAS. HOWEVER SEAS LOOK TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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