Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 131908 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 308 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SOME WET WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT AND THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVER LAKE ONTARIO MOVING NE W/ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES SE OF NJ W/THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS NYS AND VT. HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOWED SOME HIGHER RETURNS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS W/MUCH OF THIS BEING VIRGA(PRECIP ALOFT) AS THE LLVLS ARE STILL DRY. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE COLUMN BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP FROM 600MBS AND ABOVE. LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE OCCLUSION LIFTS N. THE 12Z UA SHOWED A GOOD JETLET OF 35-40KTS AT 700MBS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE COMBINED W/THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PINE TREE STATE WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN 2 AREAS OF HIGHER RAINFALL(0.25-0.50") W/ONE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ANOTHER AREA OFF THE MAINE COAST. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A RANGE OF 0.10 TO 0.25" OF RAINFALL BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVER AND THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE N AND E OF THE MAINE BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF AFTER 2 AM BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM W/READINGS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE N AND W AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST BY 12Z. PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE MORNING W/SUNSHINE RETURNING BUT COOLER. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO HIGH THE LOWER 60S WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL HANG ON TO SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER NORTHERN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE FLOW ALOFT IS FAST AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY SLIDE AWAY TO THE EAST ENDING ANY SHOWERS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY ALLOWING PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN A FRESH AIRMASS OF COLDER AIR. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTH. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THURSDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY DOWNEAST AND QUITE COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND COOL CONDITIONS FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND A BIT OF MODERATION ON SATURDAY AS A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR WILL GO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT AND A PERIOD OF IFR FROM ABOUT 06Z THROUGH 09Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BURST OF WIND(15-20 KT) EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT AND CAA HITTING THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER 2 PM AS HIGH PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THIS WEEK. EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER

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