Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251122 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 722 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure across southern new england will move northeast of the region this morning. A cold front will approach from Quebec this afternoon and cross the area tonight bringing the potential for thunderstorms. High pressure is expected to move across the region on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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707 AM Update: Needed to keep fog around for the downeast region this morning as well as the low clouds across the CWA. Cloud deck is not all that thick but light southerly wind keeping deep llvl moisture in longer. Hrly temps were adjusted to fit the current conditions. Still expecting clouds/fog to lift by mid-morning w/some sun returning. Previous Discussion... Main focus today will be the potential for some organized convection, mainly this afternoon into early evening. Low pres spinning off the Maine coast will lift ne today. Latest obs and satellite imagery showed llvl clouds w/some fog across the downeast and coastal areas. Patchy drizzle or a light rain shower is possible this morning across the eastern areas northward into Aroostook County. The low clouds/fog will lift and burn off by mid morning w/some sunshine to return. This will help to warm things up rather quickly by late afternoon before clouds move in ahead of a cold front coming out of Quebec. The atmosphere will destabilize w/an inverted V type sounding as depicted by the NAM and GFS. SB/MU CAPES forecast to hit 1000+ joules across portions of northern and central areas by the afternoon. 850-500mb lapse rates of 6.5-7.0c/km are forecast to be in place w/pwats of 1.00+ inches. Other parameters worth noting are the K index around 35 w/total totals of 50+. Showalter index is forecast to be around -2. A nice mid level jet streak of 35 kt is shown to move across northern and western areas. Dewpoints rising into the upper 50s look possible in a narrow corridor across Aroostook County down into north-central Piscataquis County by late afternoon w/moisture loading from 850-700mbs. All this would point to the potential for an active afternoon/early evening. The NAM/GFS and HRRR 3KM show a broken line of tstms developing in nw Maine and then move ese. There is potential for some storms to show supercell characteristics. Therefore, after coordinating w/GYX, decided to add enhanced wording in the forecast for hail and strong wind gusts for this afternoon across northern and western areas including the Millinocket and Greenville area. This setup looks similar to a setup back in May 24th,2014 where severe storms and some rotating cells affected the northern 1/2 of the CWA. The Downeast region will see a south wind throughout the day keeping the llvls stable and inhibiting tstms. For tonight, the cold front is forecast to slide quickly se this evening and the airmass cooling down and tstms diminishing. Followed a consensus apch and began clearing things out from w to e after midnight. Temps will be quite cool across portions of northern and western areas by morning w/some low lying areas seeing low 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure is expected to build across the region during the day Thursday into Thursday Evening then slowly move to the east. A warm front is then expected to move across the region during the day Friday resulting in showers. Will use the Bias corrected consensus raw for temperatures Thursday and Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A frontal system is expected to move southward across the region Friday Night. This system may produce some thunderstorms during the evening Friday as it becomes stationary across the State. The showers will likely continue into the day Saturday. High pressure is then expected to build to the northeast Sunday. Low pressure will then move to the north of the region Monday and Tuesday resulting in more showers. High pressure will then build across the Northeast Wednesday. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR Conditions this morning w/fog for KBGR and KBHB. Conditions will improve to VFR by mid morning. Some TSRAS are possible in the vicinity of the northern terminals later this afternoon into early evening w/strong wind gusts possibe. For tonight, MVFR later in the evening through Thursday morning. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR Thursday. MVFR conditions Friday and Saturday. VFR conditions are expected Sunday. MVFR conditions are expected Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines expected. 2-3 foot waves attm will build to 3-4 by the afternoon. Using a blend of the NAM12 and GFS20 brought sustained winds to 15 kts tonight the passage of the cold front. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS20 for sustained winds Thursday and Friday then transition to the Super Blend winds late Friday. For Waves: Local wind wave (1-2 feet/5-6 seconds) is expected to be primary wave system through the Weekend with a secondary longer period swell from the southeast averaging around 1 foot/7-8 seconds). && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Hewitt/Mignone Marine...Hewitt/Mignone

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