Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 242233 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 633 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 630 PM: ONLY VERY MINOR CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY CLD CVR AND TEMPS GOING INTO THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND OBSVD 5 AND 6 PM TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO SIG DEPARTURES FROM THE LAST FCST UPDATE. ORGNL DISC: SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BELCHER ISLANDS IN HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN VERY WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW THAT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY. SENSIBLE WX...CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FOR THE CWA. A DRY AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 40S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS UP NORTH COULD DROP CLOSE TO 40F. DID LOWER TEMPS A FAIR AMOUNT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. FRIDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL SO ALTHOUGH A VERY ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE M/U 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 80S INTERIOR DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STEADIER RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EAST WILL BRING A SERIES OF SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS ONE WEAK LOW MOVES AWAY AND ANOTHER APPROACHES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR MAY THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SPOTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD THEN BE PARTLY SUNNY, WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST PUSHES WARMER AIR INTO THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AT KPQI...KHUL...OR KBHB. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS

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