Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 072207 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 507 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure north of the Great Lakes region will move northeast through tonight. A cold front will approach from the west Thursday and cross the region Thursday night and Friday. A much colder air mass will follow for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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510 AM Update...Adjusted the wx element this evening for some patchy freezing drizzle. Latest NAM and RAP soundings showed the potential for freezing drizzle this evening. Will issue a Special Weather statement to address this through 8 pm. Temps were adjusted as well as the pops to account for some light precip on the radar. Previous Discussion... A low pressure southeast of the area will continue to track to the east away from the area. A second low over James Bay will remain stationary co- located with the upper level low. A high pressure ridge will build north along the Atlantic seaboard through Maine into eastern Canada. Friday morning the ridge will build east and the low over James Bay will move east over central Quebec with a cold front extending back across the Great Lakes. Scattered snow showers will develop ahead of the cold front. By the end of the period, the low over Quebec will shift east, the associated trough moves into western Maine.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... For Thursday night, an upper level trough will cross the area with colder air aloft. Surface temperatures will remain relatively mild with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. The resulting instability will likely produce some snow showers...mostly towards northern Aroostook and Piscataquis counties. The snow showers will continue into Friday morning. The first Arctic air mass of the season will arrive Friday afternoon with increasing winds, falling temperatures and the threat of snow squalls in northern zones. Highs on Friday will generally be in the morning. Strong cold air advection will continue Friday night. This will create steep low level lapse rates and very windy conditions through the night with gusts over 30 mph...especially in northern zones. Snow showers will likely continue in the north through the night and into Saturday. Although guidance reduces pops after Friday evening, have kept flurries in the forecast through Saturday. Wind chills will drop below zero in northern zones later Friday night and stay below zero on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid-teens north to mid 20s along the coast with gusty northwest winds continuing. On Saturday night, there is potential for subzero temperatures north if the wind dies off, but will go with low single digits for now and low teens for Bangor and the Down East region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Sunday, high pressure will cross the area in the morning and high overrunning clouds will increase through the afternoon. Guidance is indicating that a low will move out of the Great Lakes region with warm frontal precipitation in the form of snow on Sunday night. Have used a composite of the guidance to generate a secondary low along the Down East coast on Monday. This means a changeover to rain along the coast. There`s still a lot of question on the exact path of the storm and other important details such as the strength of the warm air advection. The warm advection depends on whether the storm rides quickly east or a negatively- tilted trough develops as suggested by the 07/12Z ECMWF. The thermal profile suggested by a blend of guidance keeps Monday`s highs below freezing north of a line from Bangor to Calais. Areas north of this line stand a reasonable shot at plowable snow from this storm as the secondary low deepens. After this storm exits late Monday night, there will be a brief respite on Tuesday before a bitterly cold round of Arctic air arrives Tuesday night. This air mass is reminiscent of a few events during the very cold 2008/2009 winter season. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly IFR early in the period with scattered snow showers. SKYCON will scatter out this evening becoming VFR. Fog will form near any bodies of water early tomorrow morning bringing VSBY and SKYCON BACK to IFR through mid morning. MVFR through mid day, then IFR as the trough moves into western Maine bringing a fresh round of snow showers to the area. SHORT TERM: Expect mostly MVFR cigs with tempo IFR vis in snow showers north of HUL. This will occur Thursday night into Saturday. BGR and BHB will be mostly VFR during this time. All sites will likely be VFR Saturday night into Sunday. IFR to LIFR in snow will develop Sunday night into Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will begin to build tomorrow afternoon reaching SCA criteria around the end of the period. SHORT TERM: Expect small craft advisory criteria to be met Thursday night and continue into Saturday evening. However, wind gusts will likely exceed gale criteria later Friday afternoon into Saturday morning and have opted for the gale watch to cover this concern. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/Norton Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Hewitt/Norton/MCW Marine...Hewitt/Norton/MCW

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