Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 300040 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 840 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT BASED ON 6/7PM OBS, BUT LOWS WERE NOT ADJUSTED AS OF YET. EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMP DROPS OVERNIGHT. DIDN`T TOUCH POPS, AS AREA OF SHOWERS PASSING OTTAWA THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY ON TRACK WITH THE TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APCHG FROM QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SITTING BACK IN QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED PROFILE MOISTENING UP THROUGH 700MBS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND 1.40 INCHES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. BEST CAPES APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND LESS THAN 200 JOULES. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER BASED ON THIS THINKING. STAYED W/30-40% POPS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS JUST SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS AS CLOUD BASE WILL BE 10K FT AND HIGHER. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S THINKING OF OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTH AND WEST W/UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR SUNDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME CAPE OF 300-500 JOULES BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED BELOW 700MBS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST(6.0C/KM). ATTM, DECISION WAS TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH AS SUNSHINE WILL RETURN AND W/A WEST WIND, AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. QPF THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. ADDED PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/A SSW WIND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW WITH A CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MON. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/DP/WND/POP. LOADED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF FIRST 3 PERIOD...A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LAST 3 PERIOD. ADD 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CRESTED OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. BY EARLY THURS MRNG THE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SAT MRNG ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NRN ME FROM THE NE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BACK NE ACROSS ERN MAINE... THE ECMWF MOVES IT INTO SW MAINE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: 7PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO INITIAL PERIOD OF SOME TERMINALS BASED ON CURRENT OBS, BUT OVERALL VFR PREVAIL TO START, WITH EXPECTED DROP TO MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN SITES AS PRECIP APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DROPPING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE IFR NORTH OF KHUL. S OF KHUL, VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT W/FOG AND STRATUS AS SSW FLOW SETS UP. SHORT TERM: A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH WED MRNG ALL SITES...MVFR WED MRNG ACROSS FVE AND CAR...WED AFTERNOON PQI AND HUL...AND BGR AND BHB WED EVNG...AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A S SWELL IN PLACE ATTM W/10-11 SECOND PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT W/SW WIND PICKING UP TO 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO 3 FT. OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES, 1-2 FT HOLDING W/10 KT WINDS. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KREDENSOR SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON MARINE...HEWITT/KREDENSOR/NORTON

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