Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190901 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 501 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today and tonight. The high will move east on Thursday. Low pressure approaching from the west will bring the chance of rain Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update...A few showers have developed across downeast areas thus adjusted forecast downeast to go scattered showers early this morning. previous discussion Cold front currently crossing the fa early this morning will push east of the coast by daybreak. Low clouds and patchy fog early this morning will give way to increasing sunshine and unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures for this time of year. Highs will range from around 60 degrees across the St. John Valley to around 70 degrees across downeast. High pressure will build east tonight with mainly clear skies and light winds. Low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s across the north and lower 40s downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper low just west of James Bay Thursday is expected to have a trough extending south into the central U.S. The upper trough will move east and into the Great lakes and Ohio Valley Friday. At the surface, a ridge across Maine Thursday morning moves east during the day and into the Canadian Maritimes as broad low pressure develops from central NY State southwest into West Virginia. The low will deepen and track northeast Thu night into western New England. A secondary low is expected to develop off the Mid Atlantic Coast Fri morning, and this secondary low is expected to track toward the Gulf of Maine Friday. Clouds will increase Thursday with rain to likely develop later in the day across the northern half of the CWA. Periods of rain and drizzle are expected across the region Thu night and Fri. Precipitable H20 values are expected to increase to around 1.5", and some heavier downpours of rain are possible, especially later Friday afternoon as some tropical moisture may get entrained into the region from a potential tropical or sub-tropical system off the southeast U.S. coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure in the Gulf of Maine Fri evening is expected to deepen and lift north of the state Fri night. This will cause a strong cold front to move across the area later fri night into Sat morning. Again, there maybe some tropical moisture ahead of the front that could lead to some heavier pockets of rain. The models do differ on the placement of the heavier rain Fri night. A much colder air mass follows for the weekend and into the first half of next week as an amplified pattern develops with an upper trough in New England and an upstream ridge across the central U.S. Temperatures will be colder than average Sun through Tue with the chance for a few showers. It will likely be cold enough for a few snow showers across northern Maine. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Sub vfr conditions early this morning will give way to VFR at all terminals after 12z. VFR conditions will then persist through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR to start the day Thu will likely give way to MVFR at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE as rain overspreads the region. IFR expected to develop at the terminals Thu night into Fri in rain and fog. Conditions will likely improve to MVFR by Sat morning, and possibly to VFR at the Down East terminals. Predominately MVFR over the weekend at the northern terminals and VFR with pockets of MVFR at the Down East terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect thru 8 am, winds/seas will then decrease below small craft advisory levels and remain so through tonight. SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory will likely be needed by Fri night ahead of a strong cold front. Seas will likely build to 6 to 9 feet on the coastal waters. Small craft advisory conditions will likely persist through the weekend in the cold air advection behind low pressure that will lift north of the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Duda/CB Marine...Duda/CB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.