Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240237 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 937 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure moves east this evening. A weakening cold front approaches northern Maine later tonight and then stalls. The front will return northward as a warm front later Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Update 6:30 PM: Have adjusted temperature and dew point. No other changes. The high pressure ridge will crest over the area this evening. As winds back to the southwest, stubborn stratocumulus and flurries entrenched over Aroostook County will slowly erode. Meanwhile, high and mid clouds will thicken from the west ahead of a cold front that will arrive in the northwest corner of the forecast area by late tonight. These clouds will likely preclude a lot of radiational cooling as lows drop into the low to mid 20s for most of the region. There will be more clearing towards the coast and have adjusted lows a bit further downward in the Down East region. The cold front will get into Aroostook County Friday morning, but make very little additional progress southward. Snow squalls with the front are expected to fall apart before crossing the Saint John River. By afternoon, the front will transform into a warm front as low pressure in Ontario approaches. This warm front will bring the chance of a few snow showers to Aroostook County and a warmer south wind. This means milder high temperatures for the entire area on Friday. Expect lower 40s and mostly sunny skies for Bangor and Ellsworth.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wmfnt lifts thru Fri night with sctd snow showers possible in the evng acrs the St. John Vly bfr diminishing to isold snow showers by mrng as main bndry lifts north of CWA. Warm advection and upglide wl be enuf to generate light pcpn twd daybreak acrs the north with a dusting possible but little more than that expected. Temps wl be nearly steady or slowly rise drg the ovrngt as srly winds draw in warm air. Cold front wl be appchg Sat aftn and mvg thru CWA Sat night. Temps wl warm enuf ahd of the front to be rain acrs the north and west Sat before mixing with and changing to snow drg the nighttime hrs. Maxes on Sat wl warm into the 40s acrs the North Woods and into the l50s in coastal Downeast. Front wl be offshore by 12z Sun with snow showers pretty much everywhere with the exception of the coast where blyr wl likely be warm enuf. Upr lvl trof wl be mvg thru CWA on Sun with light snow showers expected off and on throughout the day. Under caa temps on Sun wl be blo normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cyclonic flow conts into early next week with stratocu and isold snow showers and/or flurries on Monday. Temps on Mon will average about 8-10 degrees blo normal. 12z EC and CMC are much cldr than GFS for Mon night/Tue mrng. Wmfnt lifts thru on Tue with warming temps and chc pcpn acrs far north followed by cdfnt Tue night. Yet another upr lvl trof mvs thru drg the mid-week with blo normal temps, stratocu and chcs for snow showers/flurries thru the end of the long term. No significant systems expected thru Thursday. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs north of HUL will slowly erode by this evening. These cigs may produce flurries, but no significant vis reduction. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast. SHORT TERM: VFR through end of the period though MVFR will be possible at northern terminals in low stratocu in nw flow. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Longer period swell is expected through tonight and will continue with a Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas through 7am Friday. Winds will increase again late Friday afternoon from the southwest...approaching SCA conditions. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions expected Fri night and Sat with wind gusts aoa 25kts and seas > 5ft. Levels drop blo SCA criteria Sat night before increasing again Sun morning in wake of fropa. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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