Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241047 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 647 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will enter the region this afternoon and stall over the region tonight. The front will then lift back north in the form of a warm front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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645am update...No changes. Previous discussion... A powerful upper level dome of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region is the primary weather maker today and tonight. The strong subsidence with this high will bring another day of record highs with H850 temperatures a bit higher than yesterday. Humidity will continue to creep upward with dew point readings creeping towards the mid to upper 60s...levels seldom seen last summer. The cold front will enter northern Aroostook County this afternoon and likely stall out in a line from northern Washington County northwestward towards northern Somerset County this evening. There won`t be any significantly cooler air behind the front nor any organized precipitation. Will go with isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms if any storms can overcome the CIN. Since the front is crossing in the middle of a strong upper ridge, there`s not a lot of cooling aloft, mid- level lapse rates are unimpressive and there`s not a lot of moisture. The best bet for convection may actually be for an elevated storm after sunset on Sunday as the front stalls. With the front stalling, Sunday night looks warm and sticky with lows in the lower 60s with the exception of the coast and Saint John Valley where mid to upper 50s are forecast. The humid air mass will probably support some shallow fog south of the stalled front by later Sunday night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure tracking north of Maine will draw a warm front north of the region Monday. Across northern areas expect a mostly cloudy morning, then a partly sunny afternoon with a slight chance of showers or possibly a thunderstorm. Across Downeast areas, expect partly sunny skies with also the slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. The front will remain just north of Maine Monday night, with high pressure across the region. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across the region Monday night. The front should sink back south across the region Tuesday, though uncertainty still exists regarding exactly how far south. Generally expect partly sunny skies across the region Tuesday, along with the slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorms across mostly northern areas. The front will stall and should begin to lift back north in the form of a warm front Tuesday night. Cloud cover will increase Tuesday night along with the chance of showers, with the better chances across northern areas. Temperatures will be at much above normal levels Monday/Tuesday. However, temperatures Tuesday will be dependent on the timing and location of the front moving south across the region. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The warm front will lift across the region early Wednesday, with a cold front crossing Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, with showers persisting in advance of the cold front Wednesday night. The front will exit across the maritimes early Thursday. Mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers are expected early Thursday, with improving conditions during the afternoon in the wake of the front. High pressure builds across the region Friday with generally partly cloudy skies north and partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast. An upper level trof should cross the region Friday night into Saturday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across northern areas Friday night through Saturday, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast. Could also have a slight chance of showers across the north and mountains Friday night into Saturday. Cold temperatures aloft with the upper trof could allow snow to mix with the rain showers at times across the highest elevations Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Wednesday/Thursday, with near normal level temperatures Friday/Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Predominately VFR conditions are forecast. There is a chance of shallow fog at BHB this morning and possibly again late Sunday night towards BHB and BGR. There is a slight chance of MVFR cigs north of HUL late Sunday night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the area late this afternoon into the evening. SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across northern areas Monday, with generally VFR conditions across the remainder of the region. Generally VFR conditions are expected across the region Tuesday. However, an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible across mostly northern areas both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Variable conditions could also occur with any patchy fog across the region both Monday and Tuesday nights. VFR/MVFR conditions are expected Wednesday with a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, with MVFR to LIFR conditions Wednesday night. MVFR conditions are possible early Thursday, then improving during the afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Light winds and long period south swell are expected through the period. Areas of fog...or at least hazy conditions...are expected today. Fog will tend to become more widespread late tonight. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level seas are expected across the waters Monday through Tuesday night. Visibilities will be reduced at times in fog Monday through Tuesday night. Could also have a slight chance of showers Tuesday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross

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