Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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072 FXUS61 KCAR 110821 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 321 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A SECOND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED LIKELY BY THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SEASON SO FAR ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WHATS LEFT OF THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SN SHWRS IS CROSSING INTO NB PROV AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SCT SN SHWRS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. WITH ONLY MDT 925-700MB INSTABILITY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SN SQLS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER SEGMENTS OF HEAVIER SN SHWRS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HALF TO FULL INCH OF ADDITIONAL LGT FLUFFY SNFL FOR SOME LCTNS. HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE A LITTLE ERLY TDY GIVEN THE TMG OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...RANGING FROM LATE MORNG OVR HE FAR NW ALG THE QB BORDER TO MIDDAY TO ERLY AFTN FURTHER E. TEMPS WILL THEN FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY REMAINING NARROW BAND ST LAWRENCE SEA WAY EFFECT SN SHWRS WILL TAPER TO SCT FLURRIES BY LATE TNGT AS THE LLVL AIR BECOMES TO COLD TO HOLD ANY MOISTURE...WITH FLURRIES ENDING LAST OVR THE FAR NE BY DAYBREAK FRI. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW LATE TNGT INTO FRI MORN...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A WIND CHILL ADV. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLG CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES TDY INTO THIS EVE...WITH INTERVALS OF VFR CLGS AND BRIEF PDS OF IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVIER SN SHWRS. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BECOME PREDOMINATE VFR LATE TNGT. SHORT TERM: && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR TDY WITH LONG PD SWELL RUNNING AOB 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS AND AOB 3 FT FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SCA GUSTS OVR ALL WATERS BEGINNING BY ERLY THIS EVE...CONTG THRU MIDDAY FRI. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THE NEAR TERM. AIR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH LATE TNGT INTO FRI MORN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MDT FZG SPY... REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS DURG THIS TM. SHORT TERM: && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

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