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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 161952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD INTO MAINE TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOST AREAS TO
DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
CLEAR SKY AND COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COLDER NIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S DOWNEAST. SOME OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HAVE
TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE NW VALLEYS. THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND THE THE AIR MASS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE. THERE MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE MORE IN THE WAY
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A
M/SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE NW ATLANTIC WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH FRI NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER IN THE NIGHT
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
30S FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREAS
SUNDAY WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW
50S...ALTHOUGH SOME MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AGAIN. A SW FLOW WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN QUEBEC WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY WITH
COOLER AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY.  A GUSTY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH SAT...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS SAT. MOSTLY VFR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  THE SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE SCA LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WAS
TRANSITIONED TO A SCA. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE MOSTLY BELOW SCA
LEVELS INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
RIVER GAUGES THAT ARE EITHER CURRENTLY IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO GO
ABOVE FLOOD INCLUDE:

AROOSTOOK RIVER AT MASARDIS
PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER-FOXCROFT
PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT MEDFORD
MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER AT MATTAWAMKEAG
PENOBSCOT RIVER AT WEST ENFIELD
PENOBSCOT RIVER AT EDDINGTON

THE SAINT JOHN CONTINUES TO BE ICE AFFECTED, ESPECIALLY FROM
ALLAGASH DOWN TO FORT KENT. THERE IS ALSO LIKELY SOLID ICE STILL IN
PLACE FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. THE AROOSTOOK IS MAINLY ICE FREE
THOUGH THE MASARDIS RIVER GAGE REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE DUE TO AN
ICE JAM. THE ICE IS CURRENTLY FLUSHING OUT OF THE PISCATAQUIS AND
PENOBSCOT RIVERS, WITH AN ICE JAM IN PLACE ON THE EAST BRANCH OF THE
PENOBSCOT RIVER JUST UPSTREAM OF MEDWAY. THERE IS ALSO STILL A LOT
OF ICE COVER ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER. PERSONS ALONG AREA WATERWAYS
WILL NEED TO STAY ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS UNTIL THE
ICE IS COMPLETELY FLUSHED OUT.

IN SPITE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
RESIDUAL RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND YESTERDAY`S RAIN. THIS RUNOFF
CONTINUES TO AFFECT ROADS AND CULVERTS WITH MANY ROADS STILL CLOSED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT MANY RIVERS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH PEAK STAGE UNTIL SOMETIME TOMORROW AND THERE IS
STILL ICE ON SOME RIVERS,  WE HAVE EXTENDED THE AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
AND THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MANY RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/CB
MARINE...CB/CB
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS