Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171453 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 953 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west and crest over the region today. Low pressure will track well south of the region late tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure will cross the region Sunday night then exit to the east Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 950 am update... High pressure will continue to move off the coast today. Abundant sunshine today will be followed by increasing high clouds late this afternoon. Only made minor tweaks to hourly temps based on latest observations. Prev discussion blo... 1027mb high sitting ovr NY/PA wl build east thru the day and wl be cntrd just off of Cape Cod by 18z this aftn. Winds expected to diminish aft 09z as pressure gradient loosens. Srly flow wl kick in as ridge axis shifts into New Brunswick by 21z. High thin cirrus wl begin to overspread CWA in the aftn ahd of next system rapidly appchg as moisture mvs in fm the Pacific. Temps wl be blo normal for tda as warm air does not begin to mv into area until aft 21z. Sfc low currently sitting to the lee of the Rockies at 08z this mrng wl track east this aftn and off of the mid-Atlantic coast this evng. At the same time a vort max located ovr the intermountain west wl head east twd the Great Lks and help to enhance deepening of system. At this time it appears they wl be disjointed enuf so as just to produce a brief shot of snow along the Downeast coast btwn about 09z-15z Sun. Norlun troughs are notoriously hard to pinpoint exact snow amnt and locations. Guidance has come into fair amnt of agreement with around 0.3 inch qpf btwn 06z and 18z Sun for Downeast. Wild card is Bangor area as greatest omega looks to be maximized around 12z at or just below dendrite layer. Hv btwn 2-4 inches of snow late tonight into Sun morning for Downeast into the Upper Penobscot Vly and possibly as far north as Houlton. Concern is that band may temporarily go stationary which wl boost snow amnts up by svrl inches and possibly into warning criteria. Unstable low-lvl lapse rates being shown late tonight twd daybreak Sun across Downeast which would enhance enhance snowfall rates. Hv opted not to go with any headlines in collab with GYX but later shifts will need to re-evaluate the need. As low pulls east and south of Nova Scotia in the aftn downglide wl end pcpn thru the end of the pd. May be some lingering upslope snow showers acrs the north and west in the aftn. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will cross the region Sunday night, then begin to move east late with a developing warm front across Quebec province. Cloud cover will increase across northern areas Sunday night with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast. The warm front lifts north of the region Monday with partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies north, with partly sunny skies Downeast. The front should begin to sink back south Monday night. However, whether the front remains north of the Saint John Valley or settles across northern Maine remains uncertain. Cloud cover will increase across the forecast area early Monday night. Moisture will then increase overnight between high pressure to the east and the front with increasing precipitation chances. Generally expect precipitation in the form of rain Downeast, with snow or a wintry mix across northern areas. Patchy fog will also develop Monday night. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Monday. Low temperatures Monday night will occur early, then begin to slowly warm overnight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The front will begin to lift back north Tuesday, with low pressure tracking along the front later Tuesday through Tuesday night. A wintry mix is possible across northern areas early Tuesday. Otherwise, expect precipitation in the form of rain across the forecast area Tuesday through Tuesday night along with patchy fog. The low will exit across the Maritimes Wednesday, drawing a cold front across the forecast area. However, the timing of the cold front is still uncertain. High temperatures Wednesday will be dependent on the eventual timing of the cold front. Precipitation will be in the form of rain showers in advance of the cold front, then transition to snow showers in the wake of the front. High pressure will build across the region later Thursday through early Friday. Could still have the slight chance of a snow shower early Thursday. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies Thursday with mostly clear skies Thursday night into Friday. Cloud cover will then increase later Friday. Temperatures will be at much above normal levels Tuesday. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Wednesday, though temperatures will be dependent on the timing of a cold front. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for southern terminals through 06z tonight before lowering to IFR. May see LIFR at times btwn 09z and 12z but confidence too low to include in forecasts. Northern terminals can expect VFR conditions thru 08/09z before dropping to IFR in -sn. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected early Sunday night. MVFR/IFR conditions should then develop later Sunday night, with occasional MVFR/IFR conditions persisting Monday. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected Monday night into Tuesday night. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected in advance of a cold front Wednesday, with VFR/MVFR conditions in the wake of the cold front. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below sca levels this afternoon. Winds/seas may approach sca levels late tonight. SHORT TERM: Generally expect small craft advisory conditions across the waters much of the time from Sunday night into Monday night. However, conditions could briefly fall below small craft advisory levels later Sunday night through early Monday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and fog Monday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Farrar Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Duda/Farrar/Norcross Marine...Duda/Farrar/Norcross

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