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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 092238
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
638 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
637 PM UPDATE...A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING BEFORE MOVING EAST. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT. AT FIRST THE CLOUDS WILL BE HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WITH ANY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ONGOING
FORECAST HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON THINGS WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE TEMPS AND WIND BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF TOWARDS
ZERO NORTH OF HOULTON AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR
DOWN EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A SHORTWAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE MOSTLY TO BRING HIGHER LEVEL OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO H850 IS LIKELY
BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS IS SET TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY W/AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THERE STILL
DOES EXIST SOME DIFFERENCES QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WHETHER OR
NOT A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ON THE BOUNDARY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
BAGGINESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL. THE
12Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN GEM IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. ATTM, LEANED
W/A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING ON THE OCCLUSION TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING
S OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND THEREFORE,
INCREASED THE CHANCES TO 60-70% AND ADDED MORE QPF. DECENT LLVL
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL HELP IN ENHANCING THE QPF.
925MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING W/TEMPS GOING
ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST WHILE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS STAY WELL BELOW 0C. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO SNOW
MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO RAIN FOR THE BANGOR AND CALAIS REGION TO
THE COAST WHILE NORTHERN AREAS STAY ALL SNOW. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE
A TOUGH CALL ESPECIALLY IN THE TRANSITION ZONES. SNOW RATIOS WILL
START OFF QUITE HIGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CLOSE TO 20:1 AND THEN
FALL BACK DURING THE DAY W/THE WARMING. DECIDED TO GO FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND CALAIS REGION W/LESS CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHILE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW. COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION W/READINGS GOING WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS A MATTER
OF FACT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS.

FOR WEDNESDAY, LOW PRES IS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND NOW THE
CANADIAN GLOBAL TO MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. MORE ON
THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE GENERATED W/IT.

THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE CANADIAN GLOBAL/GFS AND
ECWMF STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF AGREEMENT W/A SIGNIFICANT STORM
INTO THURSDAY W/MAINLY SNOW. THE DISCREPANCIES OF TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW STILL REMAIN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST 80% PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DETAILS ON THIS EVENT STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT IN REGARDS TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND QPF. WIND WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS NNE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE STORM WINDS UP MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD. KEPT THE MENTION OF A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
FAST MOVER AND OUT OF THE REGION BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT W/COLDER
AIR RETURNING FOR FRIDAY W/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO AFFECT THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND W/YET MORE SNOW WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK. STAYED W/30% PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS LOOK TO DROP FROM MVFR TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR BY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TUESDAY EVENING
THEN VFR FOR A TIME ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH CONDITIONS
WILL DROP BACK TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN DOWN TO IFR
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
SEAS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT SHOT FOR HEADLINES LOOKS TO BE SCA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS TOWARD THE
WATERS FORM THE SW. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALES FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BROUGHT WINDS UP TO 25-30 BY THURSDAY W/GUSTS
CLOSE TO 35 TS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL TO 10 FT OR
HIGHER BY THURSDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL START OUT FROM THE SSE
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BACK TO THE NNE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW/CB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/CB
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/CB