Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 272009 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 409 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLD CVR BREAKING OVR THE N THIRD OF THE FA AS OF MID AFTN...ELSEWHERE CLD CVR HAS REMAINED BKN-OVC. CLD CVR WILL BE MOST UNCERTAIN OVR THE NE THIRD OF THE FA OVRNGT...WHICH WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY DYNAMICS FROM A UPPER TROF W OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...A MDTLY STRONG UPPER TROF OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AND OH/TN RVR VLYS WILL BE MOVG SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE NEAR TERM. SOME OF THE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS FROM THIS UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST LATE TNGT INTO SAT. ONE OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SN SHWRS LATER TNGT MSLY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...PARTICULARLY OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS. AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST... SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE TNGT THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH LCLY ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE THRU THE REGION SAT NGT. WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS ON SAT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY, BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY- FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT... SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES SAT NGT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS

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