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000
FXUS61 KCAR 210855
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
455 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. High
pressure will cross the region Thursday. A warm front then
lifts across the region Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This second cold front will be accompanied by an upper trough
and will bring a significantly cooler and drier air mass for
tonight into Thursday. The front will start affecting
northwestern portions of the forecast area by late this morning
and will sweep across most of the area in the early to mid
afternoon with the last of the storms exiting Washington County
late this afternoon. The amount of CAPE, lapse rates and shear
suggests thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail, but
severe storms do not look widespread at this point. The front
will cross the area before peak afternoon heating. There is a
lot of dry air in the lower levels and somewhat of an inverted V
this afternoon. This structure and the winds aloft compelled
mention of the gusty winds. The lower freezing level today and a
decent amount of hail CAPE prompted mention of small hail. A
few instances of quarter-sized hail or more can`t be ruled out.
Downpours with the front could bring a quick half- inch, but
this is a much different environment than this past Monday with
much less PW and a low trop. Flooding issues are not
anticipated. In addition to a well-defined surface trough and a
vigorous shortwave, the LFQ of an upper jet looks like it`ll
coincide with the front this afternoon towards southern
Aroostook County to enhance the storms. Highs today will be
cooler with lower humidity. The warmest temperatures in the
forecast area will be found towards the coast with the offshore
flow.

The front will be out of the area this evening with cooler and
drier air advecting into the area tonight. Lows will drop to
upper 40s to lower 50s north and lower to mid 50s for Bangor and
the Down East region.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will cross the region Thursday with partly/mostly
sunny skies across the forecast area. High pressure then moves
east Thursday night with a warm front approaching late. Cloud
cover will increase Thursday night. Could also have a slight
chance of rain late mostly across northwestern portions of the
forecast area. The warm front will cross the region Friday with
rain developing. Generally expect the steadier rains and greater
rain totals across northern areas. Could also have the chance
of an afternoon thunderstorm Friday. A cold front begins to
cross the region Friday night with rain and the chance of an
evening thunderstorm. Temperatures will be at near normal
levels Thursday/Friday.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front will exit the region early Saturday with mostly
cloudy skies along with a chance of showers in advance of the
front, with decreasing clouds in the wake of the front.
Unsettled conditions with a chance of showers are then expected
across the region Sunday through Tuesday with a series of cold
fronts/trofs and upper level disturbances. Near normal, to
slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected
Saturday/Sunday. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level
temperatures are expected Monday/Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Thunderstorms will build towards midday into this afternoon.
Small hail is possible along with gusts well over 30 kts. Tops
may reach FL300. Storms will quickly diminish this evening.

SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Thursday through
much of Thursday night, though MVFR conditions could begin to
develop late. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Friday through
early Saturday. Generally expect VFR conditions later Saturday
into Sunday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Longer period south to southwest swell looks like it will
continue into tonight and have extended the Small Craft Advisory
for Hazardous Seas until late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels Thursday through Thursday night. Small craft
advisory level seas are then expected Friday into Friday night.
Visibilities will be reduced in rain Friday afternoon into
Friday night, along with areas of fog Friday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...MCW/Norcross
Marine...MCW/Norcross