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250
FXUS61 KCAR 091838
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
238 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will slowly approach from the west
through the end of the week, followed by high pressure for the
weekend. Another front is expected to approach the area early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure remains over the forecast area this evening into
the night tonight, keeping most of the forecast area dry into
the night tonight. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms
may develop late this afternoon through this evening into the
Central Highlands, before lack of diurnal heating causes them to
dissipate into the overnight hours. Lows tonight will fall to
around 60 across the forecast area as high level clouds begin to
move in ahead of the next system.

The chance for showers will begin to increase from west to east
through the day on Thursday, but with the downstream synoptic
pattern remaining more stagnant, the incoming trough from the
west will be slow to push into the forecast area, and likely
will not fully emerge from Canada until later in the day into
Thursday evening. Isolated shower development is possible ahead
of the main trough, and a few showers may develop with diurnal
heating Thursday afternoon. The trough will finally move into
the forecast area Thursday night, with more numerous showers
spreading across the forecast area, particularly across the
north.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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By early Friday, the trough will be positioned just west of
northern Maine. Large scale ascent associated with the feature
should produce showers in the morning and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm or two. By the afternoon, some breaks in the
clouds should allow enough heating for 500-1000 J/kg of surface
based instability to develop leading to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage will be greater in the north where the
better forcing will be. Any storms should eventually taper off
in the evening as the atmosphere stabilizes.

The shortwave is expected to pass through the area overnight
while ridging moves in behind leading to mostly dry conditions.
Some patchy fog is possible Friday night, especially in areas
that remain clear and have received rainfall during the previous
afternoon. A few showers, primarily over northeast Aroostook,
are possible Saturday in association with some weak instability.
Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures
around 80.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Upper level ridging remains in place early Sunday before sliding
east as a cold front approaches from the west. Models are still
expressing uncertainty in the timing of the front with the Euro
and now Canadian being the slower solutions. Front timing will
impact when and where thunderstorms develop. A slower solution
will result in storms staying over the North Woods while a
faster solution may result in more storms over central and
eastern Maine. Kept what the NBM had in for PoPs and thunder as
it seemed to be a decent blend of the possible solutions.

Upper level ridging should build in behind the cold front but
models vary in how strong it is so there is still a potential
for some lingering showers and thunderstorms early next week if
ridging is weak and some shortwaves pass through the area. A
signal for a trough approaching the area late next week exists
in the current guidance but it is unclear how the surface low
will evolve.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue across all terminals into
this evening under mostly clear skies. Some fog development is
possible tonight, which could limit conditions towards IFR for
BHB/BGR overnight, but terminals will otherwise remain VFR
through the night. Low confidence in fog development at northern
terminals, but HUL may see a brief decrease in vis through
early Thursday morning as well. Winds light and variable.

Mostly VFR at all terminals on Thurs with a gradual decrease
towards MVFR late and into Thurs night as showers approach from
the west. SE winds 5 to 10 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions due to rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms, especially for northern terminals. Winds from the
S/SE around 5 kts.

Friday night: VFR/MVFR conditions in light rain showers, that will
taper off overnight. Some patchy fog also possible. Light winds
from the S/SE.

Saturday - Saturday night: VFR conditions at southern terminals,
MVFR conditions possible in northern terminals in rain showers.
VFR conditions overnight. Light winds from the S/SE.

Sunday - Sunday night: VFR conditions becoming MVFR in rain
showers overnight at northern terminals. Winds from the S at
5 to 10 kts.

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions in rain showers and thunderstorms
during the day, particularly for northern terminals. Winds S/SW
at 5 to 10 kts.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below small craft
levels tonight through Thursday night. Visibilities may be
reduced in patchy to areas of fog through Thursday night.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory
levels through Monday. Visibility may be reduced in patchy fog
Friday night and early Saturday morning.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...AStrauser/Melanson
Marine...AStrauser/Melanson