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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 170357
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1157 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region from the west
today through Tuesday...the settle south of the region mid to
late week. A upper level disturbance will bring some cloudiness
to mostly northern Maine Tuesday afternoon and evening.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Update 1155 PM: Adjusted cloud cover overnight. Due to
widespread cloud cover and persistent north winds, have raised
lows for tonight. Also raised highs for Tuesday by a couple of
degrees with SW surface flow emerging in the morning.

Previous discussion...
Model guidance indicates that low SC cld cvr across Nrn ptns of
the FA and hi cldnss across Cntrl and Downeast areas should
gradually dissipate/ move E of the Rgn respectfully, as the
ridge axis from Hi pres from the great lakes settles ovr the Rgn
late tngt. In addition to clearing skies, winds will become
light and variable later tonight spcly ovr broad vlys of Nrn ME
allowing for a window of radiational cooling. With fcst late ngt
925mb temps in the minus single digits, it would not take much
of a sfc bas invsn for temps to drop in the low to mid 20s ovr
these Nrn vly areas with even a few upper teens possible ovr the
coldest vly lctns such as Escourt Stn or Big Black River.

Skies will begin sunny on Tue, then an upper lvl s/wv movg
rapidly E from Cntrl Can will bring increasing cldnss to mainly
Nrn ptns of the Rgn midday into aftn, with isold rn shwrs
possible late in the aftn in the Saint John vly as temps rise
rapidly abv fzg durg the morn into erly aftn hrs. Despite the
increasing cld cvr, hi temps Tue should actually recover to be
a few deg warmer than current aftn temps across the N, and
similar to current aftn temps across Cntrl and Downeast areas.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly quiet weather is expected for the middle of the week. A
weak warm front, quickly followed by an equally weak cold front,
will cross the region Tuesday night, perhaps sparking a few
showers across the Saint John Valley. Otherwise, expect dry
weather through Wednesday, with highs in the mid 50s north and
lower to mid 60s south. Another warm front will lift across the
state Wednesday night, ushering in milder air for Thursday;
highs will be 5-10 degrees warmer than on Wednesday. Another
cold front will approach from the west late in the day, but
don`t expect any impacts from this boundary during the daylight
hours.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The quiet pattern continues right into early next week as high
pressure will remain the dominant weather maker. A few showers
are possible Thursday night as a weak cold front crosses the
area, but other than that, don`t see any rain threat until
Monday. While a very gradual warming trend is expected, overall
temperatures aren`t expected to vary too much from day to day;
highs in the north will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s
while Downeast will see daytime temperatures in the lower to
mid 60s. Overnights will start out cool, mainly in the mid 30s
to around 40, but expect everyone will see slightly warmer
overnight lows by next week.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR all TAF sites with periods of MVFR sc
cldnss into erly eve across Nrn most sites, spcly KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Some local MVFR is possible 00z-09z Wed and Fri at the northern
terminals as upper disturbances will bring the threat for
showers.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: We were able to drop the SCA for inner bay/harbor
MZ052 withe SCA contg til about 8 pm for outer MZs050-051 as
seas cont to subside. Winds will cont from the NW tngt at 10 to
20 kt, backing to the SW by Tue aftn as wind speeds drop to
about 10 kt. Fcst wv hts thru Tue are close to blended WW3/NWPS
guidance with primary wv pds in the 7 to 10 sec range.

SHORT TERM: Headlines may be needed Tuesday night and then again on
Thursday and Thursday night as winds increase in response to a
couple of frontal passages. Winds will gust to around 25 kt and seas
will build to 4 to 7 feet.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...Mignone/MCW
Short Term...
Long Term...
Aviation...Mignone/MCW/
Marine...Mignone/MCW/