Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191934 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 234 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM THIS CLIPPER AND ITS PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO THE COASTAL REGION TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND UP THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST SOME 5 OR 6 HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS A HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION AS WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD RESULT IN A SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD LAY DOWN A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR. FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER

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