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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 171312
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
912 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will slide by just to our north this
morning as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure
will crest over the area tonight. A warm front will approach on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
9 AM Update...Skies remain clear across most of the region. A
plume of smoke extending across the central part of our region
from northwest to southeast is resulting in some hazy skies in
those areas. Some patchy clouds are limiting sunshine across the
far northeast. Raised temps a couple degrees over northeastern
areas. Otherwise, no major changes this hour.

Previous discussion...A dry and breezy day on tap across the
region. Surface high pressure will build across southern New
England through the day. Meanwhile, an upper low currently
positioned south of James Bay will slide eastward. Clouds
associated with the latter feature will spread into far northern
areas this morning and gradually sink south through the
afternoon, thinning out as they do so. As such, expect partly to
mostly cloudy skies north and east, while southeastern/coastal
areas see lots of sunshine. Clouds will dissipate this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Colder air aloft along with a
decent jet will result in gusty northwest winds today; gusts
around 30 mph are expected. Highs will range from around 70 in
the North Woods and much of Aroostook County to the upper 70s
for interior Downeast.

For tonight...both the surface high and upper low will move east of
the region while low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. This
will result in increasing high clouds. Overnight lows will mainly be
in the lower to mid 50s, though some 40s are possible in the more
sheltered northern valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Friday begins with a ridge of high pressure overhead.  The ridge
moves off to the east during the day as low pressure across the
Great lakes lifts to James Bay by 12Z Sat. Fri will start dry
with sunshine and just some high clouds. Clouds will increase
during the day with the chance of a late day shower across
mainly the central highlands in advance of a warm front.
Unsettled weather is then expected Fri night and Sat with
onshore flow increasing the stratus and also likely some fog
too. Fri night will feature low clouds, fog, and some showers. A
warm front will slowly work across the region Sat making for a
cloudy day with a few more showers. The clouds may try to break
a bit in the afternoon, mainly across the western zones ahead of
an approaching cold front. Depending on how much clearing takes
place scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop
later in the day across the western zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will cross the area Sat night with scattered showers
and the chance of an evening thunderstorm. Somewhat drier/less
humid air begins to filter into the region Sun, but with an
upper trough to swing through during the day it will likely lead
to varying amounts of cloud cover in the north and across the
western mountains with a stray shower. It will likely be at
least partly sunny across the Downeast Region. High pressure
builds to the south of the area Sun night and Mon with dry
weather along with seasonable temperatures. Return flow sets up
Tue bringing warmer and more humid air back into the area.
There will be the chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm
across northwest Maine in association with a pre-frontal trough
ahead of a cold front. Mild and muggy conditions are likely Tue
night ahead of the cold front with patchy fog and a few showers.
A better chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms Wed as the
cold front pushes into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Scattered to broken low clouds are expected to spread over the
northern sites through the morning hours, with ceilings hovering
3000-4000 ft. As such, occasional MVFR will be possible 14z-23z
Thursday, especially at FVE and CAR.

SHORT TERM: VFR Fri with conditions to lower to IFR Fri night in
areas of low stratus and fog along with showers.  IFR likely to
persist into Sat morning with predominately MVFR by Sat afternoon at
the northern terminals, but low IFR may persist all day at the
Downeast terminals.  Variable conditions expected Sat night, but
mostly IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected.  Conditons should improve
to predominately VFR Sun, although some MVFR ceilings are still
possible at the northern terminals. VFR expected on Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas remains in
effect through much of today due to long-period south swell from
Hurricane Gert. Seas have finally come up early this morning and are
expected to remain at 4-6 ft into this evening. NW winds will
increase through the morning hours as well, with a few gusts in
excess of 20 kt possible. Conditions will improve this evening and
overnight as Gert`s influence weakens and high pressure builds over
the waters.

SHORT TERM: The seas will build late Fri night and Sat ahead of an
approaching cold front and a small craft advisory for hazardous seas
might be required, especially Sat and Sat night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period swell of around 13 seconds will affect the Downeast
coast of Maine from this evening through much of the day today.
The seas will remain 4 to 6 ft through this afternoon with the
largest component of the seas being long period swell from Gert.
High surf will affect the beaches producing rip currents and
localized beach erosion.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hastings
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Hastings/CB
Marine...Hastings/CB
Tides/Coastal Flooding...