Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241652 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1252 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will cross the region today with a cold front crossing tonight. High pressure will build across the region Saturday into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1245 PM Update... Latest Visible Satl imagery showed some thinning of the clouds across northern Maine w/some sun appearing. This has allowed for temps to shoot up into the low/mid 20s. Further s, plenty of clouds w/the radar showing returns across central and downeast areas. Obs and webcams support some light snow occurring under the heavier returns(15-20z). Adjusted the pops initially further s to cover for this activity w/60-80% as analysis showed decent convergence w/the warm front. Decided to drop back the pops further n w/the partial clearing initially. The latest RAP and NAM12 coming in line w/radar activity filling in across the region this afternoon w/the heaviest action across central and downeast areas. Low pres will help to aid in a decent areas of activity in these areas as it rides across southern Maine. Not expecting much as far as accumulation through afternoon w/an inch or less. Where snow was falling, temps had dropped back, but will warm up as this initial push of precip. Previous Discussion... A warm front will cross the region today with a cold front crossing tonight. High pressure will begin to build across the region later tonight. Light snow will develop across the region through the morning into the afternoon. Generally expect precipitation to remain in the form of snow today, though rain could mix the snow at times Downeast particularly closer to the coast. Snow accumulations across the forecast area today will be generally around an inch or less. Light snow will diminish early tonight with a chance of snow showers along the cold front. Any additional snow accumulation tonight is expected to be less than an inch. Cloud cover will then decrease later tonight with building high pressure. High temperatures today will range from the lower 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 20 to the lower 20s north, to the upper 20s to around 30 Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong high pressure is expected to build in from the north Saturday morning and crest over the region mid day Sunday. The high will then move to the east late in the day Sunday. Expect mostly clear conditions under the influence of this system. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Clouds are expected to increase over the region Sunday night as low pressure moves northeast towards the Great Lakes Sunday night. This will result in overrunning precipitation developing across the region late Sunday night and continuing into Monday. Precipitation type is expected to be mostly snow in the north and central areas and a mixture of snow and rain in the south. A second low pressure system is then expected to approach from the southwest Tuesday and move across the region Wednesday. Precipitation with this low is expected to be mostly rain and snow mixed south and driven by diurnal temperature change across the north. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions will develop across the region today, with occasional IFR conditions also possible. Precipitation will be mostly in the form of snow today through tonight, though rain could mix with snow at times this afternoon into tonight Downeast particularly near the coast. Similar conditions will persist early tonight. Conditions will then improve later tonight. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Saturday and Sunday. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will increase today along with building seas. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters from later this morning through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in rain/snow later this morning into tonight. SHORT TERM: Have blended the GFS, ECMWF, and the NAM for sustained winds for Saturday and Sunday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For Waves: A longer period wave system (5 feet/7-8 seconds) will be the primary wave group Saturday Morning. This wave group was generated the day before in a fetch which was confined to the Gulf of Maine, so should subside rapidly during the day Saturday as a new northeast wind wave system develops. Combined seas will continue to subside Sunday under light wind conditions. A new southeasterly fetch will develop Monday. Will use the Near Shore Prediction System for wave heights. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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