Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 212001 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 401 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE. THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA. THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT, THOUGH. SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE. && .HYDROLOGY...
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WE OPTD TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE HEAVIER...DEFORMATION RNFL BAND PTN OF THE EVENT SPANNING THU INTO FRI MORN OF OUR FCST. FCST STORM TOTAL QPF...WHICH SUMMED THE 6 HRLY QPFS FROM 18Z WED THRU 00Z SAT INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF 3 INCH OR GREATER RNFL OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION...WHERE WE USED TO DELINEATE THE N CUT-OFF THE WATCH ATTM. ALSO...ALL MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP CUT-OFF OF TOTAL RNFL ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA (TO AS LOW AS ARND 1 INCH IN THE ST JOHN VLY)...WHERE LITTLE OF THE OVRRNG RNFL WED WILL REACH...AND THE HEAVIEST DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL TAKE TO LONGEST TO ARRIVE AND RESIDES RELATIVELY THE SHORTEST TM FRAME COMPARED TO LCTNS IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS SHARP CUT-OFF OF RNFL OVR THE N WAS ALSO IMPLIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG TOOL FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS MO...WHICH TAKES THE AVG OF 10 TO 15 SIMILAR ANAOLGS THAT OCCURRED WITHIN A MONTH OF THE DAT OF THIS CURRENT EVENT OVR THE PAST 30 TO 40 YRS OR SO. .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...FOISY/VJN MARINE...FOISY/VJN

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