Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 291801 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 201 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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150 PM UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD THINNING FOR NOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHILE CENTRAL AREAS WERE SEEING A THICKER CIRRUS SHIELD MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS HAS CUT BACK TEMPS A BIT. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO COVER FOR THE THICKER CIRRUS SHIELD. CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES FAR NORTHERN MAINE/SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF A PRESQUE ISLE TO CLAYTON LAKE LINE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. THE FIRST...WEAKER OF THESE S/WVS AND COLD FRONTS FINISHES CROSSING THE FA ON SUN WITH A CHC OF SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA AND BARELY IF ANY SFC COOLING. A SECOND... STRONGER S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MON WITH MORE SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE N...WITH ENOUGH BUILD UP OF SBCAPE MON AFTN TO NEAR 500J/KG FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE NE BEFORE THE FRONT FINISHES CROSSING THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO EVE. RNFL AMTS FROM SHWRS AHEAD OF SUN`S OR MON`S COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE RN FROM SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK...SINCE NEITHER OF THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE ANY DEEP TROP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MON NGT AND TUE WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LIKELY MUCH DRIER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF LLVL COOL ADVCN ACCOMPANYING POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS THE COOLEST...BUT EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SIG COOLER TEMPS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE MORN...BUT WITH SOME RECOVERY TUE AFTN UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMP ADVCN THAT BECOMES NEUTRAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFT A FAIR AND LESS BREEZY/COOL TUE NGT...WED LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WARMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS FLEXES TOWARD NEW ENG. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING THE NEXT WEAK S/WV AND COLD FRONT...HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WED AFT OR ERLY WED EVE...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER. OBVIOUSLY...A LATER FRONTAL ARRIVAL ON WED WOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TO WARM THE MOST... AND THE ECMWF IMPLIES HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EVE ACROSS THE LOWER TRRN OF THE N. MORE DYTM CLDNSS IMPLIED BY THE GFS WOULD KEEP HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N NEAR 80 WHILE CNTRL/DOWNEAST AREAS RISE WELL INTO THE 80S. WE SHOW A CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS TO MSLY N AND W PTNS OF THE FA WED AFT INTO ERLY EVE. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA ON THU...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU SPCLY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. IF THE GFS IS MORE ACCURATE...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO FAR S OF THE FA FOR ANY SHWRS IN OUR AREA. ATTM WE INDICATE COOLER HI TEMPS ON THU AND FRI WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS ON FRI FOR NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT AIR MASS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THESE DAYS GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND PSN OF THE GREAT LKS UPPER RIDGE RELATIVE TO OUR FA. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCAL MVFR IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBGR 08Z- 12Z THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBHB THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS DOWN TO IFR. SHORT TERM: VFR ALL SITES...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHWRS OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN...MON AND WED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED. WV HTS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FT OVR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WITH 1 TO 2 FT COMMON ALONG THE NEAR SHORE AND INNER BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WENT WITH 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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