Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 181713
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1213 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017
Weak low pressure will approach from central Canada today and track
north of the area tonight. A weak cold front will cross the
region later Sunday. High pressure will build in from the
northwest late Sunday night into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12PM Update: Raised lows for tonight as warm front crosses and
increased clouds due to low level moisture for the entire area.
Will raise highs for Sunday as Bangor and Ellsworth will hit at
least 43F...the warmest readings of the month. There are three
separate precip episodes with this system. First, is the band of
snow showers crossing northern zones this morning into the
afternoon. Have raised pops in Aroostook County for this
afternoon as it appears the band will strengthen in the next few
hours. Second, there will be light snow or even freezing
drizzle tonight in northern zones with the warm front. Have
added freezing drizzle in the forecasts for the northern half of
the forecast tonight. No accumulation is expected and no
advisory will be issued. Finally, rain and snow showers will
occur with the cold front Sunday as low level instability
develops. Again, these showers will mostly be in the northern
half of the forecast area. None of these episodes presents any
substantive amounts of precipitation as all of the energy with
this low pressure system will be far north of the state.
Orgnl Disc: Models cont to advertise a weak band
of ovrrng lgt sn ahead of a warm front for Nrn ptns of the
region msly from late morn into aftn. Most locations across the
N that do experience lgt sn will only receive a dusting but a
few lctns alg the St John vly could receive up to an inch of
Behind the warm front tngt, any sn across the N will be in the
cvrg of sct sn shwrs msly ovr far Nrn areas with little in the
way of accumulation.
Temps will be slow to rise tdy with cld cvr across the region,
but will make steady progress by aftn to reach late day hi temps
in the lower to mid 30s across most lctns. Aftwrds...temps will
be steady or even slowly rising into the ovrngt, until the erly
morn hrs when a weak cold front will reverse the trend of temps
back to falling by daybreak.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak wave of low pressure sliding by to our north will pull a weak
cold front into the north on Sunday. This may bring some rain or
snow showers across the north on Sunday. Otherwise, northern and
central areas will be mostly cloudy with partial sunshine Downeast.
Temperatures will be above freezing across most areas ranging from
the mid 30s north to low 40s Downeast. Any showers should dissipate
Sunday night as the front pushes across the area and high pressure
begins to build in from the west. A large area of high pressure will
begin building down from central Canada on Monday. This will bring a
breezy day with increasing sunshine and seasonable temperatures.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure cresting over the area on Tuesday will bring bright
sunshine and tranquil air with highs close to freezing. The high
will slide east of the area Tuesday night. A weak warm front
crossing the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will
bring clouds and possibly a few showers of rain or snow. Generally
mild weather with longwave ridging is expected to continue to
persist through mid to late next week. The next significant storm
may come next weekend as a large low tracks to our northwest pulling
warm air north and bringing a chance for rain across the area
Saturday into Saturday night.
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Msly VFR xpctd across the TAF sites with MVFR clgs/vsbys
with any very lgt sn tdy and sn shwrs tngt across Nrn TAF sites.
SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions across the north and VFR conditions
Downeast are likely Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure
building in from the northwest should then bring VFR conditions
across the area Monday into Tuesday.
9am update...bumped up start time of the SCA to 4PM.
NEAR TERM: Initially no headlines for our waters tdy, but winds
and seas are xpctd to increase by this eve for an SCA for our
outer MZs, which will cont thru the rest of the ovrngt. Kept
close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts for this ptn of the
SHORT TERM: An SCA will likely be needed for westerly winds
gusting up to 25 kt over the offshore waters Sunday into Monday.
High pressure cresting over the area on Tuesday should then
bring tranquil conditions.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Sunday for ANZ050-051.