Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230434 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1234 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will lift north of the area overnight. The low will remain to our north Sunday into Monday as cold gusty winds circulate into our region behind the low. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1230 AM update...Deepening low pressure is currently spinning over the upper St John Valley and will push into Canada over the next several hours. We continue to see gusty winds at this hour, including gusts of 30-35 kt here at KCAR. A look at wind profiles show this should abate a bit as we head toward daybreak, with gusts of 20-30 kt common. Have made some adjustments to the wind forecast to match these trends. Shower activity has waned a bit over the past couple of hours with the bulk of the showers now over the North Woods, north and west of Route 11. Have backed off on pops to go with scattered showers over all but the aforementioned areas. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape and no other significant changes were needed. Previous discussion...Strong wind gusts and much colder. The latest sfc analysis showed low pres lifting n across the coast w/an area of rain moving into the downeast area. Satl WV imagery showed area of enhancement pulling through Nova Scotia and another smaller area associated w/a vorticity max off the southern New England coast. This vorticity max will lift across the region this evening into tonight w/an area of stronger winds as picked up by the mesoscale guidance including the NAM12, HRRR and RAP. Bufkit showed gust potential UP TO 40+ MPH across mainly across the downeast and eastern side of the CWA early tonight w/the disturbance. Sounding profiles also hinted at convective potential w/elevated CAPE of 200-400 joules and swi down below 0. PWATS of 1.30" this evening coupled w/0-6km shear will aid to the potential. Best window for any convection will be this evening and as it looks right now across the central and easter portions of the CWA. One thing to note is that the trend for convection was down from the 06 & 12z runs. Decided to keep the mention of tstms in there this evening and will issue a Special Weather Statement to address the winds and heavy rainfall. Temps will start out warm but drop back by early Sunday morning. Winds are forecast to crank back up Sunday morning and continue into early Sunday evening as low pres intensifies as it moves into Quebec. CAA on the way w/momentum transfer showing gust potential to 50 mph especially across the higher terrain terrain and open areas. The only thing holding back full gust potential is the cloud expected for Sunday. Any substantial breaks in the clouds would allow for winds allow to mix down. 12Z run of the guidance was a bit weaker than the previous guidance in regards to the wind field. After coordination w/GYX, decided to hold off on any wind headline. Later shifts can assess this situation further. Will beef up wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Rain showers will move back across the area on Sunday. Temps will be dropping back into the mid and upper 30s n and west where some snow could mix in w/the rain showers. Further e and s, early high temps of low to mid 40s w/temps dropping off by the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A large area of low pressure will be located in eastern Quebec Sunday night as strong winds continue to wrap around the low pulling cold air across the area. The cold advection will continue to result in deep mixing making for gusty winds. Skies will remain mostly cloudy across the far north with partial clearing likely Downeast as some drier air circulates in beneath the low. The storm will remain in Eastern Quebec on Monday as some moisture pivoting around the upper trough begins to back south into our area. This will bring some rain and snow showers to northern areas while Downeast remains partly cloudy. Moisture will continue circulating back into the region, mainly across the north, Monday night as boundary layer temperatures become cold enough for snow across much of the region. Some light accumulation of wet snow is possible, especially over the higher elevations to the west. Snow and rain showers will continue into Tuesday across the north and west while Downeast becomes mostly cloudy as the surface low weakens and backs down to the south a bit. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Moisture pooled in the upper trough will bring a mostly cloudy and chilly day on Wednesday as low pressure both surface and aloft weakens and moves off to the east. Upper level ridging and Canadian high pressure will build across the region on Thursday bringing a return of sunshine and tranquil weather. However, the dry weather may be brief as another shortwave trough approaches Thursday night into Friday with a chance of rain. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR expected at all terminals this evening. Expect restrictions to rise to MVFR at BGR and BHB after 09z then progressing north during the afternoon hours. Big story will be the winds with gusts to between 30-35kts in the afternoon from the SW. A very brief period of LLWS also expected for a time tonight. SHORT TERM: Strong gusty west southwesterly winds will affect all sites Sunday night into Monday. Some stratocumulus will limit conditions to MVFR over the north Sunday night and Monday with VFR conditions expected Downeast. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected north Monday night and Tuesday in continued low clouds with VFR to MVFR conditions Downeast. MVFR conditions downeast and MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds over the north can be expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. Conditions should return to VFR across the area later Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Decided to put the intra coastal area in a Gale Warning as gusts to 35 kts are expected tonight and another round expected for Sunday. Increased sustained winds on Sunday to 30 kts w/gusts closing in on 40 kts especially over the outer zones. Southerly swell out there attm w/11 period seconds and heights of 6-7 ft. Expected seas to build later tonight and especially on Sunday w/the increasing winds. Since, wind field will be offshore, not expected any coastal flood or erosion problems. SHORT TERM: A gale warning will likely be needed Sunday night into Monday. Winds may diminish to SCA over the intracoastal waters later Monday. An SCA will likely be needed Tuesday. Winds will gradually diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday night then be light on Thursday as high pressure builds over. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ052. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050-051.
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