Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 131419 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 919 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will reach the coast this morning. Low pressure running along the front will exit into the Maritimes today. High pressure will build in from the west tonight and Sunday and crest over the area Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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920 am update... 994mb sfc low just now entering into extreme sw Maine with arctic front along the coast. Temp at Bangor currently 33F while Bar harbor is 54F. Wide range of ptypes occurring acrs the area with CAR still sleeting, snow acrs nw Aroostook and heavy rain at times along the coast with areal flooding reported across Washington county this morning. 12z raob from CAR shows a warm layer of +5C at 750mb with conditions of sleet at the time of launch. Extensive cold layer blo frzg letting raindrops refreeze into sleet pellets bfr hitting the ground and 12z NAM had a good handle on 750mb temps and hv used this as somewhat of a guide on changeover of precip from rain- sleet-snow for remainder of the day. Bulk of pcpn along the coast expected to be all rain and all snow acrs the north with a mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain in between. Wl lkly need to adjust snow and sleet accums down as pcpn becoming more scattered in nature acrs cntrl areas with far nw zone still looking for around 4-8 inches of snow bfr pcpn winds down late this aftn. Prev discussion blo... A strong Arctic cold front continues to cut across the area this morning as a wave of low pressure lifts northeast along the front. Precipitation produced by the low will transition to snow across the far northwest and to freezing rain then sleet over central areas as the colder Arctic air cuts under the warm moist airmass currently across the area. Any water and slush will quickly begin to freeze as temperatures rapidly fall below freezing following the frontal passage. By midday the front will be along the coast. Precipitation will turn to mainly snow over the north and freezing rain across interior Downeast locations. Precipitation will taper off early this afternoon as the low exits into the Maritimes and dry air surges in aloft, but some light snow will likely linger across the north. Cold high pressure building in tonight will then bring clearing as temperatures drop to below zero over the north and the single digits over interior Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Drier and much colder for this term. High pres will settle in from Canada w/that colder air moving into the region. After a warm day on Friday, it will definitely feel like winter again. Daytime temps will below normal for mid January. The will be a breeze on Sunday as the center of the high remains w of the area keeping a gradient over the area. Wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph are expected. The high is forecast to lift n of the state Sunday night into Monday. Winds will drop off Sunday and will clear skies, overnight temps will drop into the 10 to 15 below range across the northern 1/2 of the CWA. Further s, temps are expected to be zero to 5 below w/the exception of the coast as readings there are expected to be in the single numbers. Monday is expected to be similar to Sunday although a tad warmer by a few degrees. There is a low that is shown by the model guidance to move across the southern portion of the Gulf of Maine. This system looks like it could deliver a glancing blow to the outer islands w/some light snow but not expecting any accumulation. Therefore attm, decided to go w/20% pops as the GFS and ECMWF show similar solutions w/trace amounts in the precip fields hitting the immediate coast. Monday night will not be as cold as high clouds will start to move into the region ahead of a low pres system apchg from the Great Lake. Overnight lows are forecast to be about 5 degrees warmer than Sunday night`s lows. There is some caution to this however due the high to the n and cold air wedged in at the surface, it looks like an inversion could set up leading to much colder readings. Something to keep an eye on. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Things could be interesting by mid week as the model guidance is showing the potential for a low pres system to affect the region. Low pres is forecast to move across from the Great Lakes region on Tuesday w/a second low forecast to develop somewhere in New England on Wednesday into Thursday. There is some differences in the long range guidance as far as timing and placement of the second low. The ECMWF has been erratic w/its placement as the 12z run had a "bomb" near the southern Maine coast while the 00z brought the low up across the Gulf of Maine through the Bay of Fundy and not as deep. The ECMWF is also warmer as it brings warmer all the way into the Bangor and Calais region w/up to an inch or so of rain while all snow further n. It is slower in its timing as well compared to the Canadian Global and GFS starting things out on Wednesday and carries it out through Thursday night. The Canadian Global is similar to the track of the ECMWF but colder and quicker bringing the coastal low up across the Bay of Fundy on Wednesday. The operational GFS is similar in timing and temperatures and runs the low up along the Maine coast. The GFS ensemble mean matches quite well w/its operational run. Confidence in timing is low attm. Would like to see another set of model runs before pushing pops up a category. After collaboration w/GYX and the shifting in the ECMWF, decided to carry high chance pops(40-50%) Wednesday into Thursday and leaned colder showing snow all the way to the coast. Using a blended apch for temps yield daytime temps hitting the 20s across the north to around 30 for the Downeast for this timeframe. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR and LIFR conditions in low clouds and mixed precipitation today will improve to MVFR early tonight then VFR late tonight as high pressure builds in. Some wind shear will still be likely early today, especially Downeast, as strong southwesterly winds continue aloft. SHORT TERM: Looking for VFR all terminals right into Tuesday w/high pres anchored n of the state. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Have extended gale warning for outer waters through 18z this afternoon in strong southwesterly winds ahead of surface low. Intracoastal has been dropped to SCA and extended thru 18z as well. Prev discussion... A gale warning remains up for southwesterly winds gusting up to 40 kt this morning. Winds will become northerly following a frontal passage around midday. A SCA will likely be needed this afternoon through tonight. SHORT TERM: It does look like there will be gradient Sunday possibly lasting into Monday w/high pres to the n. NNE winds of around 20 kts w/gusts to 25 kts are expected. Seas will remain above SCA thresholds into Sunday night w/6-8 ft. Winds and seas are forecast to drop off by Tuesday as the gradient relaxes.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... The flood watch remains in effect for south central and Downeast locations. Temperatures will fall this morning but continued runoff from the combination of rainfall and snow melt will result in continued concerns for rivers and streams in the flood area. There is also the potential for ice movement on rivers in the Flood Watch area. This includes the Kenduskeag in Bangor and the Penobscot. Ice movement was noted on some of the gages this morning such as the Kingsbury Stream at Abbot and Eddington on the Penobscot. Ice movement was also noted on the Piscataquis near Blanchard, which is headwaters of the Piscataquis River. We will continue to monitor the situation today. Ice jams may result in flooding in short notice. Urban flooding and ponding due to snowmelt and clogged drains/culverts remains a secondary concern. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ001- 002. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ003>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MEZ011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Farrar Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Bloomer/Farrar/Hewitt Marine...Bloomer/Farrar/Hewitt Hydrology...

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