Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290204 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1004 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move into the area tonight and then stall through Monday. An occluded front from the west will cross the region later Monday night with unsettled conditions continuing behind this front through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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945pm Update... Main changes were to tweak T/Td and also POPs for current situation as well as most recent model trends. Temps are staying up a bit more than originally forecast up north, likely a result of the cloud cover, so the temp decrease was slowed up north. Td was also a bit low compared to recent obs north of Katahdin, thanks to the numerous showers in northern Maine. So Td was also bumped up some through 06z or so. Max POPs were dropped some over the Crown of Maine as the 00z NAM and recent HRRR runs have backed off on precip coverage up north. However, didn`t go as far as some of the models in dropping POPs, as some shower activity could continue around the weak front as it lingers and then lifts north overnight. Original Discussion... Expect showers and isolated thunder over northern areas tonight as a cold front stalls. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy tonight into Monday across southern areas. The front will move northward into Canada Monday Morning. An occluded front will approach from the southwest later in the day Monday with more showers breaking out ahead of this front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The first round of shwrs will traverse across the FA ahead of a weak occluded front Mon ngt, with fcst rnfl amts durg this pd a quarter inch or less and max PoPs about 80 percent attm. After a relative break in shwrs erly Tue morn, another round of shwrs with isolated Tstms looks like a good bet for Tue aftn into erly eve with max PoPs in the high likely range as spokes of upper lvl energy rotate arnd a broad upper low ovr Ont prov. These shwrs will move E/dissipate by ovrngt Tue, leaving late ngt patchy fog. Otherwise, the same process will begin on Wed with another s/wv movg WSW to ENE from the Great lks as the upper low remains ovr Ont prov. Shwrs will increase again in the aftn with the addition of day tm htg to destabilize the lower to mid atmosphere. This time, there appears to be a little more of MUCAPE upwards to arnd 500J/KG for a better chc of tstms in the aftn into erly eve with max PoPs in the likely range. Shwrs and any tstms will weaken and lessen in cvrg again ovrngt Wed. Temps in the short term will be below avg for hi temps on Tue but then recovering closer to normal hi temps on Wed with a little more in the way of morn sunshine xpctd this day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The overall LW pattern will feature weakly positive PNA and NAO teleconnection forcing ovr NA, which will keep upper lvl troffing ovr the Ern U.S. alg with contd unsettled conditions for the late weekend for our Rgn with perhaps a break in shwrs for the Rgn by Sun. Until then, there will be a chc of shwrs every aftn and erly eve from Thu thru Sat, with isold thunder possible Thu aftn/erly eve. Despite day tm cld cvr and shwrs spcly aftn, most of the really cool llvl air will remain in Cntrl Can, so temps will be close to seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions tonight and Monday, with some isolated showers also to be dodged north of KHUL through tonight, and. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly VFR all TAF sites, with intervals of MVFR clgs and vsbys in heavier shwrs and patchy late ngt IFR clgs Mon ngt, Tue ngt and perhaps Wed ngt. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained winds. For waves: Currently a southerly swell is the primary wave system (2-3 feet/8-9 seconds). With light winds expected this wave group will continue to be the primary wave group through tonight. During the day Monday expect easterly winds to increase in speed producing a secondary wave system. Will use the Nearshore prediction system for wave grids. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated attm, with winds and wv hts msly below SCA criteria. Went with about 85% of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts this update, with wv pds msly between 5 to 7 secs. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Kredensor/Mignone Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Kredensor/Mignone/VJN Marine...Kredensor/Mignone/VJN

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