Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210446 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1246 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1245 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAWN ALONG SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. SKIES WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ON THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AND WEAKLY UPSLOPING WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME OF THE CUMULUS TO FORM ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK CAPE ALTHOUGH A BIT OF CAPPING AROUND 12K FT MAY LIMIT CONVECTION IN MOST AREA. OTHERWISE, THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING HOWEVER EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S. FOR FRIDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS UNDER VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SATURDAY LOOKING TO FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LONG RANGE RESULTING IN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND. HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WARM HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON QUICKLY THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND THE RESULTING SW FLOW KICKS IN. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN DOESN`T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG VERY LATE TONIGHT OR AROUND DAWN THURSDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/FITZSIMMONS

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