Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210115 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 915 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push east of the region tonight as a weather disturbance lifts north across the area. Low pressure will lift north through Quebec tonight and Wednesday. High pressure will build south of the region on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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9:15 PM Update...The line of showers and thunderstorms have now pushed off into New Brunswick. There are a few showers and isolated storms in Quebec approaching northwest Aroostook County. This activity lines up very well with the latest reflectivity depictions from the HRRR. Expect these showers to mainly clip northern Aroostook County over the next 2 to 3 hours. Have updated the PoP/Weather/QPF grids to account for these showers. Expect they will weaken some, so will hold back on mentioning any thunder, especially with the loss of daytime heating, but this will need to be watched closely over the next few hours. Otherwise, only minor tweaks based on the latest observations. Previous discussion... Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon. Showers are producing very heavy downpours. For example, NWS Caribou got 0.55 inches in just 15 minutes. Thankfully, training has been limited and no storms have been severe. Showers will die off quickly after dark. Could be some fog persisting mainly near the coast, but with some drier air working in, don`t think it will be as foggy as previous nights/days. Shortwave moving through Wednesday will spark scattered showers again, but airmass will be cooler and a bit drier on Wednesday, so think that thunder will be limited to the slightly juicier airmass from about Millinocket south, with just showers in the north. Somewhat breezy out of the southwest as the cooler, drier air moves in.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Next in a series of short waves associated with the upper low across eastern Quebec province will pull east of the region Wednesday evening followed by partial clearing and cooler weather Wednesday night. Lows by Thursday morning will drop back to around 50 across the far north and the low to mid 50s down east. We finally get a break from all the rain on Thursday as a drier westerly flow aloft is expected to bring a mainly sunny and seasonably warm day to the region. Highs will range from the lower 70s north and mid to upper 70s down east but it will be cooler along the coast. Clouds begin to increase Thursday night in advance of an approaching warm front with lows from the mid to upper 50s. Friday is shaping up as another wet day with periods of heavy rain possible at times. Airmass is expected to moisten back up with dew points rising back into the lower 60s in advance of low pressure approaching from the west. Looks as if the best instabilty will be just to our west and have included chance thunder into portions of Piscataquis county Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will range from the low to mid 70s north and mid to upper 70s downeast bit of course cooler along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The wet weather will potentially linger into Saturday before we briefly dry out again Saturday night into Sunday. Another disturbance will bring the chance for more showers by early next week. Temperatures will be near normal Saturday and Sunday and then trend a bit below normal by early next week. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Generally VFR as of 9 PM. Away from the immediate coast, tonight generally will be VFR, although late in the night or early Wednesday morning there may be a period of MVFR ceilings at some sites. The coast is tricky as low clouds and fog eroded along coastal Hancock and parts of coastal Washington county this evening, but think that the coast will have patchy IFR through tonight with the greater probability of VFR toward coastal Hancock. The coast should improve to VFR Wednesday afternoon. VFR during the afternoon Wednesday outside of scattered showers and isolated storms. SHORT TERM: VFR weather expected Wednesday night through Thursday night. MVFR/IFR is possible Friday and Saturday in rain. VFR returns for Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Small craft for hazardous seas into Wednesday morning. Seas away from immediate coast remain in the vicinity of 6 feet, but winds are generally a bit below small craft levels. Some fog persisting over the waters, with visibility of less than 1/4 NM at eastern Maine shelf the past several hours. SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory may be needed for seas Wednesday night and then again Friday and saturday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Foisy Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Foisy/Duda Marine...CB/Foisy/Duda

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