Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 020253 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1053 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPDATE... THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH HELPED SUPPORT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW EXITING ACROSS THE MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TREK ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S NORTH, TO AROUND 80 ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CWA WL BE IN TRANSITION FM HIPRES TO APPCHG LOPRES ON SUN NGT. LOPRES WL MV INTO ERN QUEBEC WITH TRAILING CDFNT BACK TO THE WEST BY 12Z MON. 12Z MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT BY THIS TIME WITH GFS FURTHER WEST THAN NAM/CMC. H5 FLOW BCMS ZONAL AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM WITH BRIEF RIDGING THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT. RIDGE WL DEFLECT S/WVS OFF TO THE NW WITH ONLY ISOLD SHRA OR THUNDER EXPECTED ACRS THE FAR NORTH TWD DAYBREAK AS UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONT APPCHS. MIN TEMPS SUN NGT WL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACRS CWA IN THE U50S. SRLY FLOW ACRS DOWNEAST WL KEEP TEMPS WARM AND CLDY SKIES ACRS THE NW WL KEEP TEMPS FM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH DRG THE NIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THRU 04Z ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE. AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE AHD OF NEXT APPCHG FRONT ON MONDAY. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L/M 80S AS TEMPS SOAR ABV 20C. BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS FOR MON AFTN WHILE NAM IS ABOUT 2X AS HIGH. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPH ALONG WITH STRONG BULK SHEAR VALUES AND STRONG MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WL LKLY SPELL THE NEXT SVR THREAT LATE AFTN INTO THE EVNG. FROPA OCCURS SOMETIME TUE MRNG WITH CONTD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS AHD OF UPR LVL TROF. MAXES ON TUE WL BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL AS SHOWERS AND CLOUDS PREVENT MUCH RISE IN TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT ARE PROGGED TO PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS MAINE. EACH WAVE COULD PRODUCE ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...SO WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY, THEN LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FRONT BRINGS MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO TERMINALS LATE MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THEN VFR AFTER.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ON TUESDAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...BERDES AVIATION...NORCROSS/FARRAR MARINE...NORCROSS/FARRAR

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