Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181022 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 622 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift northeast toward the area today followed by a cold front tonight. High pressure will build in for Wednesday and into Thursday. A widespread rainfall is likely by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update...Minor tweaks to hrly temps and dew points otherwise no other changes. previous discussion Low pressure was centered across the great lakes region early this morning with a warm front extending eastward across New York State and then across southern New England. The low will continue to track northeast into Quebec Province today drawing the warm front northeast toward the area this afternoon. Expect a mainly cloudy day today with a period of rain expected later this morning and into this afternoon, mainly across northern areas, with lesser chances across downeast. A low level jet of 40 to 45 kt at 925 mb is expected to develop in advance of the great lakes low. Much of these winds are expected to remain above the inversion today limiting mixing. Highs today will range from the low to mid 50s north and mid to upper 50s downeast. Low pressure will track well to our north tonight with a weak cold front crossing the area overnight. A few showers will accompany the frontal passage, with the best chances once again across northern and central areas. Lows by morning will range from the mid to upper 40s north and lower 50s downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cdfnt expected to be thru most of CWA by the start of the short term and beginning to head offshore. Expect skies to begin clrng in wake of fropa by late mrng. Vry little caa expected with fropa and with H9 temps warmer than Tue, especially acrs northeast zones, plus full sun locales should rise to nr 60F acrs the north for maxes and nr 70F for Downeast zones. Sfc hipres wl dominate the wx Wed night and Thur mrng bfr building east into the Maritimes. Return flow sets up drg the aftn and wl only result in increasing clds. Airmass wl initially be too dry to result in any pcpn until late aftn and evng. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Latest GFS and EC are in good agreement with upr lvl trof digging into the Great Lks at the start of the long term. Sfc low wl develop in the vicinity of NY state by Fri mrng with moisture streaming north on srly flow off of the Atlantic. PW values wl be rising thru the end of the week with GFS bringing in 1.5+ inches on Fri, appchg 3-4 standard deviations abv normal. Med range guidance is hinting that tropical moisture fm potential tropical system wl lkly bcm entrained in system crossing thru New England Fri night. GFS/EC are in very good agreement with mvmnt as lopres lifts north into Quebec on Sat. Expect a prolonged pd of rain as upr lvl trof goes negative on Friday. Unsettled wx wl continue thru the end of the pd as H5 trof/low lurks in vicinity of the NE. Colder air wl be drawn in bhnd departing low with temps blo normal Sun and Mon. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions can be expected through mid morning before conditions deteriorate this afternoon in lowering clouds and showers. Conditions will lower further tonight in low MVFR and even IFR in low clouds and showers. Low level wind shear will be an issue by this evening toward KBGR and KBHB. SHORT TERM: Low clouds and vsby restrictions may impact BGR and BHB Wed morning, improving to VFR after 15z. VFR continues through Thur under high pressure before next system brings MVFR after 00z Fri, lowering to IFR at times through the end of the period in rain. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect from this afternoon through tonight. Expect winds to increase to 20 to 25 kt by tonight with gusts 25 to 30 kt. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft by tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain blo SCA levels into Fri morning. Fri night will likely see seas increasing to 5-10 feet through the weekend in southerly swell. SCA likely to be needed late week and into the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Duda/Farrar Marine...Duda/Farrar is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.