Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 031853 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 253 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR. SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...BERDES LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...DUDA/BERDES MARINE...DUDA/BERDES

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