Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCAR 290038
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
838 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
A weak cold front will continue south to the Downeast coast
tonight. The front will push offshore Friday into Friday night as
low pressure along the front tracks south of the area.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --830 PM Update:
The latest HRRR and Hi Res Activity across the Downeast region
weakening per the latest trend. A few cells across central
Washington County were holding on due a nice instability axis in
place. This shows up well on the latest meso analysis. A broken
line of showers and isolated storms were dropping s across
northern Maine. This line could hold on for a while as it drops s
but should weaken due the environment being worked over from the
earlier convection. Kept the mention of thunder in through 10 PM
and then lean w/just showers. Also kept the mention of fog for
the overnight period. Hrly temps/dewpoints were adjusted to fit
the current obs.
Orgnl Disc: Most of the current shwrs and tstms ovr our FA should
move E and or dissipate from the region this eve as an s/wv slides
E across Nrn ptns of the FA and a weakening cold front slowly
moves S toward the Downeast coast. Sct shwrs may hold ovr Downeast
areas late tngt as the front slowly moves off the coast by Fri
morn, then additional shwrs are xpctd later Fri ovr Downeast areas
as a weak sfc wv of coastal low pres moves ENE thru the Gulf of
ME. Most of the hvy rn with this system will remain off the coast.
Meanwhile, Nrn ptns of the FA will have ptly to mcldy skies on
Fri. Temps will cont abv normal, xcpt for hi temps ovr Downeast
Fri, which will likely be held down by cld cvr and shwrs.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure is expected to move out of the Gulf of Maine Friday
night. This system should produce some showers early then the
precipitation will move off to the northeast. High pressure is
then expected to build in from the northeast during the day
Saturday with dry conditions expected. Low pressure is the
expected to develop along the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday Night
then move to the northeast. This system is expected to bring
showers into the area Sunday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another area of low pressure is expected to pass to the south of
New England Sunday Night into Monday. This system could possibly
bring some rain to the southern portion of the area Sunday Night
into Monday while high pressure dominate to the north. A
stationary font north of the State may bring some showers to the
North Tuesday into Thursday.
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR all TAF sites...xcpt lcly and briefly MVFR
vsbys in TSTMs and heavier SHWRs this eve and perhaps in patchy
fog late tngt.
SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Friday. MVFR conditions are
expected Saturday and Sunday. MVFR/IFR Conditions are expected
Monday at KBGR and KBHB with VFR Conditions in the North. MVFR
conditions are expected in the North Tuesday with VFR conditions
at KBGR and KBHB.
NEAR TERM: No headlines xpctd tngt and Fri. Wv hts will be arnd a
foot alg the nearshore and 2 to 3ft ovr the outer MZs with wv pds
generally short, typical of wind wvs, in the 3 to 6 second range.
Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru the near term.
SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 for sustained winds through
Sunday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For waves: Have
used the Near Shore Wave Model to initialize grids through Sunday
then transition to the Wave Watch III. Wave Watch III continues to
demonstrate high bias with boundary conditions for the Near Shore
Wave Model, so have lower model wave heights by one foot through
the entire period.