Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181016 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 616 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the region early this morning. High pressure will build this afternoon and move east tonight. Another cold front will cross the region Thursday night. High pressure will build across the region Friday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630am update...The cold front is entering the NW portion of the state, will quickly stall out in central zones this morning and then retreat northward this afternoon as a warm front. No changes were made to the forecast with this update. There are a few sprinkles in northern Washington County with an upper trough passage, but these will be out of the state in the next hour. Previous discussion... The area is currently in the warm sector of a weak frontal system. The cold front will move into northern zones this morning, stall and move back north as a warm front. No precipitation is expected and there will be little cloud cover after early this morning. An upper level ridge and surface ridge will build this afternoon. Warm advection and subsidence with this ridge will overcome the very brief cold advection behind this morning`s cold front and the net effect will be that today`s highs will be warmer than the highs recorded on Tuesday. Expect mid 50s in northern Aroostook and low to mid 60s in the southern half of the forecast area. There are relatively strong northwest winds aloft that will mix down today such that gusts to 25 mph are possible. For tonight, warm advection continues with a persistent SW breeze. This will keep lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s in spite of clear skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A warm front will cross the region Thursday with mostly sunny skies. A cold front then crosses the region Thursday night with partly cloudy skies, with also a chance of showers across northern areas. High pressure then builds across the region Friday through Friday night with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Thursday. Temperatures will cool behind the cold front Friday though remain at slightly above normal levels. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will cross the region Saturday with mostly clear skies, then exit to the east Sunday with partly cloudy skies. Uncertainty then exists Monday into Tuesday regarding the timing of a slow moving cold front approaching from the west. Cloud cover will increase across the region Monday along with a chance of showers. Moisture will be drawn north in advance of the cold front Tuesday with increasing shower chances or a steadier rain developing. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Saturday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR. No cigs are expected after early this morning with the cold front. Vis should be excellent. Northwest winds will gust over 20 kts by midday into the afternoon. SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across northern areas Thursday night. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected across the region Thursday through Sunday. South to southwest winds could gust up to around 25 mph Thursday through early Thursday night in advance of a cold front. Northwest winds could gust up to around 25 mph Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be diminishing by later this morning and the end time for the SCA looks reasonable. Winds will pick up again late tonight, but remain below SCA criteria. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Thursday into Friday. Conditions will fall below small craft advisory levels later Friday into Friday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross

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