Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 240145
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
945 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016
High pressure will build across the region through tonight. Low
pressure will lift north toward Maine Tuesday and will be
followed by a cold front Wednesday. High pressure builds back into
the area Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --930 PM Update: Appears shwrs have msly ended ovr Downeast ptns of
the FA, with oceanic bkn-ovc ST alg the coast making slow
movement nwrd. Fcstg the nwrd xtnt of the ST clgs will be the
remaining fcst challenge ovrngt. Right now, we are leaning with
the SREF scenario with the max advc of MVFR and IFR clgs into
cntrl ptns of the FA by 09-12z, but this is uncertain given
relatively weak BL-850mb SE winds alf. Otherwise...obsvd hrly
temps have been placed into the 6-9PM tm frame of the fcst grids
with hrly temps aftwrds interpolated to fcst lows posted at 5am
Orgnl Disc: High pressure will build across the region tonight.
Expect mainly clear skies across northern and central areas and
partly cloudy skies downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range
from the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
Low pressure both at the surface and aloft will start to lift
north from the mid atlantic region during Tuesday. Expect
increasing clouds during Tuesday with a chance of showers by
afternoon across downeast areas. Highs on Tuesday will range from
the mid to upper 70s northern and central areas, mid to upper 60s
interior downeast, and mid 50s to around 60 along the immediate
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A closed upper low in the vicinity of Cape Cod Tuesday evening
will slowly weaken to an open trough and lift into New Brunswick
Wednesday. A pre-frontal trough will move into northern Maine
Wednesday morning and will be followed by a cold front that will
cross the region late in the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
Depending on the amount of cloud cover and sfc heating there will
be the chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening,
but no severe weather is expected. the showers will end across the
region Wednesday night. Brief ridging surface and aloft builds
across the region Thursday making for a dry day with a partly to
mostly sunny sky and temperatures a little above average for late
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
All of the extended models are in good agreement. A weak high
pressure ridge will be retreating from our area as an upper level
low over central Canada north of lake Superior, with a trough
extending into the eastern Great Lakes region. Early Saturday
morning the trough moves into western Maine, then to central Maine
by Saturday morning. The trough will move east of Maine Saturday
evening. Two new lows, the first over western lake Superior, with
a front extending to southern IL. The second low over coastal SC,
the ECMWF second low is over southern FL. Sunday morning the GFS
and ECMWF diverge on there solutions. The GFS bring the warm front
to central Maine, moves the low over Superior into southern
Canada. The low along the SC coast remains stationary, but
deepens. The ECMWF keeps the warm front south of Maine, keeps the
associated low over southern Superior. Sunday evening the models
are in better agreement. With the GFS moving the front back to the
south over southwest Maine. The ECMWF moving its front to MA.
Monday the frontal boundary remains stationary over southwest
Maine. Through the day as its associated low moves into Hudson
Bay, the front will extend into western Maine. By the end of the
period the low will move into northeast Quebec, the associated
cold front moves into central Maine.
Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models.
The blend more closely follows the solution of the GFS. Loaded
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected across the northern sites
tonight. At KBGR/KBHB, guidance is suggesting MVFR and possibly
IFR conditions after 06z in lowering clgs. Expect VFR conditions
Tuesday morning across the north to give way to developing MVFR
in sct showers and MVFR conditions KBGR/KBHB in sct showers and
SHORT TERM: Predominately vfr Tue night with times of mvfr in
showers Wednesday into Wed evening. Conditions will improve to vfr
by Thursday morning and continue during the day Thursday. conditions
will lower to mvfr at times in showers Friday into Saturday.
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should remain below SCA levels through
Tuesday. Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 3 nm at in showers.
SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels for the most part during the short term, but may
approach 5 ft at times Wednesday afternoon or evening across the
outer portions of the coastal zones.