Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 161012
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
612 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will be over the area today. Low pressure will
track into Quebec tonight and pull a warm front through the area
Sunday. Low pressure will remain to our north through Monday then
continue east into the Maritimes Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:10 AM Update...The sky is mostly clear across the area except
for some patchy freezing fog Downeast and patchy stratus across
the north. Freezing fog was added earlier, and temps were
adjusted to reflect the valleys being a bit cooler than higher
elevations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
We will be under weak high pressure today between one small low
south of the Maritimes and a new low tracking east through Ontario.
A weak upper disturbance running east, out ahead of the Ontario low,
will bring a mostly cloudy day today with some isolated rain or snow
showers, mostly across the north. The Ontario low will track east
into Western Quebec tonight as it draws an occlusion out ahead of it
across the St. Lawrence valley and into Western Maine. Moisture will
advect north ahead of the occlusion into our area and be lifted in a
divergent upper level flow ahead of the approaching trough. This
will bring wet snow north and rain south, moving in overnight.
Thicknesses across the north are very marginal for snow and seem to
favor wet snow over the higher elevations of north central Aroostook
County with rain and fog further south. By early Sunday morning
there may be a slushy inch of snow across the far north and
northwest with little or no snow over the northeast and just rain to
the south.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure is expected to track across southern Quebec Sunday with
a secondary low likely to develop in Maine. This will bring
overrunning precipitation to the area that will fall in the form of
rain Downeast and a mix of rain and snow for areas from around
Greenville and Houlton north. The low lifts out to the north by
Sunday evening with the precipitation in the north to taper off to
scattered snow showers. It should be mainly dry with a downslope
flow to the south of the Katahdin Region by Sunday evening.
The best chance of a few inches of wet snow will be across the
western Saint John Valley and the higher terrain in northwest
Aroostook County and northern Somerset County. Temperatures by
Sunday afternoon should be above freezing in all areas, and
given the higher mid-March sun angle and fact that heavy
precipitation is not likely most of the snow will likely melt on
paved surfaces.
On Monday, the area is in cyclonic flow aloft with low pressure both
surface and aloft centered across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, but
with a broad trough extending into Maine. This will produce clouds
and a few rain and snow showers. The best chance of showers will be
across the north and mountains with lesser chances toward the coast.
Highs Monday will be a few degrees above seasonable norms ranging
from the upper 30s to around 40F north and mid 40s in Bangor and
along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weather pattern during the long term looks unsettled. The
area remains under the influence of an upper trough with low 500
millibar heights, and a shot of modified arctic air late in the
week. The trough in eastern Canada pulls out by mid-week, but
another upper low starts to dig into Quebec from northern canada
late in the week.
Monday night through Tuesday weak disturbances will rotate into
the region around the upper low and produce scattered showers
across the north and mountains. These showers will be mostly
snow at night and a rain/snow mix during the day. Wednesday
looks drier, although an isolated rain/snow shower is still
possible in the north.
Colder air filters into the region Thursday into Friday with
temperatures likely to be a bit below normal with scattered snow
showers, mainly across the northern half of the FA.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR conditions are expected Today. Light NW wind becoming W then
S. Conditions will lower to MVFR this evening then IFR late
tonight. Winds increasing from the S to SE.
SHORT TERM:
Sun...IFR expected in rain at KBGR and KBHB with rain/snow mix at
the Aroostook terminals. South wind 10 to 15 knots, with a few
higher gusts at KBHB. LLWS possible in the morning at KBGR and KBHB.
Sun night & Mon: Predominately MVFR at the northern terminals with
local IFR in snow showers. MVFR to VFR at the Downeast terminals.
Wind becoming west 10 to 15 knots.
Mon night & Tue: MVFR most of the time north and predominately VFR
at the Downeast terminals. West wind 5 to 10 knots Mon night,
becoming NW 10 to 15 knots with a few higher gusts Tue.
Tue night and Wed: VFR Downeast and MVFR to VFR at the Aroostook
terminals. West wind 5 to 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will be light today, then increasing from the south
tonight reaching SCA late tonight. Wind gusts up to 25 kt over
the intracoastal waters and 30 kt across the offshore waters
will build seas up to 5 ft late tonight.
SHORT TERM:
A small craft advisory is in effect on Sunday as south to
southwest flow increases ahead of low pressure. Wind gusts of 25 to
30 knots are expected along with seas building to 6 to 8 feet on the
coastal waters. The wind will diminish to below SCA levels by late
in the day and into Sunday night, but seas will likely remain above
5 feet into Sunday night on the coastal waters. The wind and seas
are expected to mostly be below SCA levels Monday into Tuesday with
a few gusts to 25 knots possible on the outer waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Bloomer/CB
Marine...Bloomer/CB