Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 161012 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 612 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will be over the area today. Low pressure will track into Quebec tonight and pull a warm front through the area Sunday. Low pressure will remain to our north through Monday then continue east into the Maritimes Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:10 AM Update...The sky is mostly clear across the area except for some patchy freezing fog Downeast and patchy stratus across the north. Freezing fog was added earlier, and temps were adjusted to reflect the valleys being a bit cooler than higher elevations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. We will be under weak high pressure today between one small low south of the Maritimes and a new low tracking east through Ontario. A weak upper disturbance running east, out ahead of the Ontario low, will bring a mostly cloudy day today with some isolated rain or snow showers, mostly across the north. The Ontario low will track east into Western Quebec tonight as it draws an occlusion out ahead of it across the St. Lawrence valley and into Western Maine. Moisture will advect north ahead of the occlusion into our area and be lifted in a divergent upper level flow ahead of the approaching trough. This will bring wet snow north and rain south, moving in overnight. Thicknesses across the north are very marginal for snow and seem to favor wet snow over the higher elevations of north central Aroostook County with rain and fog further south. By early Sunday morning there may be a slushy inch of snow across the far north and northwest with little or no snow over the northeast and just rain to the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure is expected to track across southern Quebec Sunday with a secondary low likely to develop in Maine. This will bring overrunning precipitation to the area that will fall in the form of rain Downeast and a mix of rain and snow for areas from around Greenville and Houlton north. The low lifts out to the north by Sunday evening with the precipitation in the north to taper off to scattered snow showers. It should be mainly dry with a downslope flow to the south of the Katahdin Region by Sunday evening. The best chance of a few inches of wet snow will be across the western Saint John Valley and the higher terrain in northwest Aroostook County and northern Somerset County. Temperatures by Sunday afternoon should be above freezing in all areas, and given the higher mid-March sun angle and fact that heavy precipitation is not likely most of the snow will likely melt on paved surfaces. On Monday, the area is in cyclonic flow aloft with low pressure both surface and aloft centered across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, but with a broad trough extending into Maine. This will produce clouds and a few rain and snow showers. The best chance of showers will be across the north and mountains with lesser chances toward the coast. Highs Monday will be a few degrees above seasonable norms ranging from the upper 30s to around 40F north and mid 40s in Bangor and along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The weather pattern during the long term looks unsettled. The area remains under the influence of an upper trough with low 500 millibar heights, and a shot of modified arctic air late in the week. The trough in eastern Canada pulls out by mid-week, but another upper low starts to dig into Quebec from northern canada late in the week. Monday night through Tuesday weak disturbances will rotate into the region around the upper low and produce scattered showers across the north and mountains. These showers will be mostly snow at night and a rain/snow mix during the day. Wednesday looks drier, although an isolated rain/snow shower is still possible in the north. Colder air filters into the region Thursday into Friday with temperatures likely to be a bit below normal with scattered snow showers, mainly across the northern half of the FA. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected Today. Light NW wind becoming W then S. Conditions will lower to MVFR this evening then IFR late tonight. Winds increasing from the S to SE. SHORT TERM: Sun...IFR expected in rain at KBGR and KBHB with rain/snow mix at the Aroostook terminals. South wind 10 to 15 knots, with a few higher gusts at KBHB. LLWS possible in the morning at KBGR and KBHB. Sun night & Mon: Predominately MVFR at the northern terminals with local IFR in snow showers. MVFR to VFR at the Downeast terminals. Wind becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Mon night & Tue: MVFR most of the time north and predominately VFR at the Downeast terminals. West wind 5 to 10 knots Mon night, becoming NW 10 to 15 knots with a few higher gusts Tue. Tue night and Wed: VFR Downeast and MVFR to VFR at the Aroostook terminals. West wind 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will be light today, then increasing from the south tonight reaching SCA late tonight. Wind gusts up to 25 kt over the intracoastal waters and 30 kt across the offshore waters will build seas up to 5 ft late tonight. SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect on Sunday as south to southwest flow increases ahead of low pressure. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected along with seas building to 6 to 8 feet on the coastal waters. The wind will diminish to below SCA levels by late in the day and into Sunday night, but seas will likely remain above 5 feet into Sunday night on the coastal waters. The wind and seas are expected to mostly be below SCA levels Monday into Tuesday with a few gusts to 25 knots possible on the outer waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Bloomer/CB Marine...Bloomer/CB

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