Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 120125 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 825 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS OUR AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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UPDATE... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EARLY TONIGHT...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED EVENING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH LOCALIZED GREATER ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND ZERO ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AROUND 5 ABOVE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MAINE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SLIDING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A NEW, AND MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LIKELY SIGNIFICANT NORLUN INVERTED TROUGH SNOW EVENT FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE COAST. QUESTION IS...WHERE ALONG THE COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NEAR THE EAST SIDE OF PENOBSCOT BAY FROM MOUNT DESERT ISLAND UP THROUGH BANGOR. HOWEVER, DIFFERENT MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES STILL SAY THIS BAND COULD SET UP ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OR WEST OF EAST SHORE PENOBSCOT BAY. MODELS HOWEVER ARE CONVERGING ENOUGH TO A SOLUTION THAT FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO PUT UP A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT INTO HANCOCK COUNTY. IT CAN`T BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THE LOCATION OF THIS NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS UNCERTAIN, AND THIS IS THE TYPE OF EVENT WHERE THERE WILL BE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW TOTALS OVER SHORT DISTANCES. SNOW RATIOS WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH WITH A FLUFFY LOW WATER CONTENT SNOW...THE TYPE OF SNOW THAT YOU CAN BRUSH OFF YOUR CAR WITH A BROOM. THIS, COUPLED WITH THE NORTH BREEZE, WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL WHERE THE SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS. OTHER STORY IS THE VERY COLD AIR. WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING FACTOR ON SUNDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS TO 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. COLDEST AIRMASS AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS OF THE SEASON.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANY PRECIP FROM THE WKND SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE DEPARTED BY SUN NIGHT, AND UPR RIDGING MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON AM AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE CWA. THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE INTO WED. WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE EXISTENCE OF THIS LOW, THEY HAVE DIFFERED GREATLY ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF UPR AND SFC FEATURES. HOWEVER, WITH THE 12Z MODELS, ALL 3 LONG- RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEAR TO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT. EDITS WERE NEEDED TO THE SUPERBLEND FIRST GUESS, AND WERE MADE GENERALLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 12Z GFS AND CMC RUNS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONCURRED WHEN IT CAME IN. WITH THE GOOD AGREEMENT, LKLY AND DEFINITE POPS WERE INTRODUCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUE AM THRU TUE NIGHT. WITH MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING ON A FURTHER WEST TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST, TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP TUE INTO WED. NOW EXPECTING A CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA BY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND S-SE WINDS DRAW WARMER AIR WELL INLAND. AS OF NOW, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES, AND COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ON WED, AND THURS LOOKS DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE BAR HARBOR TO BANGOR AREA...PERHAPS STRETCHING NORTHWEST TO GREENVILLE. IN THIS AREA, SNOW COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR IN THE NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE THE SNOW DOES OCCUR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY. AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAY EVEN BE SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY, BUT DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO GO WITH A WATCH.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ001- 003-004. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ015-016-029. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BLOOMER SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY

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