Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 142317 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 717 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain cross the region tonight. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and cross the area Tuesday night accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Canadian high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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630 PM Update... Adjusted the pops to fit the latest radar loop showing some showers stretching across northern areas. This activity was setting up on a vorticity axis seen on the latest satl wv loop. Decided to carry 20% pops for isolated showers for another few hrs. The activity should wind down later in the evening w/the loss of heating and the forcing will weaken. Temps/dewpoints were adjusted to fit the current conditions. Readings are running a bit warmer than previously expected. Previous Discussion... Mainly dry tonight than a few strong to possibly severe storms possible Tuesday Cold front just north of the state will push back to the north as a warm front this evening. Latest radar imagery showing isolated showers on the leading edge of a weak warm front aloft. There is a bit of elevated instability through early this evening which could keep a few showers around across the north through early tonight. Will keep the mention of isolated thunder as well but not seeing much in the way of any lightning activity thus far. Otherwise expect partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies overnight. Soundings do show the potential for some stratus toward down east late tonight, especially the coast. Lows tonight will not be quite as cool as last night, with generally mid to upper 50s north to near 60s down east. Tuesday will see the potential for a few strong to possibly severe storms in association with pre-frontal trof in advance of a strong cold front from the west. Looks like the best potential will be across northern and western portions of the forecast area on Tuesday, and SPC continues the marginal risk for severe in this area. 0-6 km shear is forecast around 25 kt with forecast surface based capes 500-1000J. Fairly steep lapse rates are forecast as well. Think main threat will be potential for gusty winds and with freezing levels around 10k think some hail is possible as well. Across down east areas, atmosphere should be more stable with southerly winds and potential for early morning marine layer keeping atmosphere more stable there, thus no enhanced wording there at time. Highs on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid to upper 70s, but it will only be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening. Expect that the potential for strong wind gusts and hail will decrease, but anticipate some heavier thunderstorms during the evening...mostly in the northern half of the forecast area. May need enhanced wording for this threat in the next forecast package. The remainder of the night will be humid and cloudy lows only dropping into the lower 60s for most of the area. The actual cold front will cross Wednesday morning with a few light showers and significantly less humidity. Dew points will drop from the lower 60s early in the morning to 40s late in the day. The timing of the front and the strength of the cold air advection means temperatures will only rise some 10 degrees from morning lows in northern Aroostook. The later arrival of the front will allow highs to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in the southern half of the area. By afternoon, a deep mixing layer and strong winds aloft will generate NW wind gusts up to 25 mph. On Wednesday night, the winds continue and will not drop temps too much. A post-frontal trough will cross northern zones will some stratocu. Low humidity and gusty NW winds will continue to be the story for Thursday. There will be little cloud cover in the very dry air mass. Highs will be in the 70s with the warmest temperatures towards Bangor and the coast due to the offshore winds. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Thursday night looks cool and comfortable with lows in the 40s and low 50s. On Friday, the high moves east and pops increase due to a warm front. The warm front won`t make too much progress and the area will be affected by an onshore marine flow and frontal inversion much of Saturday into Sunday morning. Elevated instability will be a concern towards the coast. Although there`s discrepancies between various models, have gone with cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Did not add mention of thunderstorms at this point due to the uncertainly on the cold front timing and the high probability of the frontal inversion continuing ahead of the cold front. High pressure and dry weather is anticipated behind the front for early next week. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected overnight at northern terminals. Across the down east terminals i.e. KBGR/KBHB, potential for some low stratus moving in late tonight, mainly after 06z with IFR conditions expected. Tuesday will see mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing in advance of an approaching cold front. Sub VFR conditions area expected at times in any showers and storms on Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Expect IFR to LIFR conditions due to cigs and fog on Tuesday night until a cold front crosses early Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms will also affect the area Tuesday night. VFR conditions will emerge for all terminals Wednesday morning and continue until later Friday night. Gusty NW winds will be a potential issue Wednesday and Thursday afternoons as some gusts over 30 mph are possible. By early Saturday morning, lowering cigs and rain will begin. Some IFR cigs are possible...most likely towards the coast. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below small craft advisory levels through Tuesday. Expect the potential for patchy fog development across the waters late tonight through Tuesday as southerly winds transport warmer and more moist low level air across the open waters. SHORT TERM: Fog over the waters is likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Winds will pick up later Wednesday into Wednesday night with some gusts reaching 15 to 20 kts. Long period south swell from TS Gert will start reaching the waters later Wednesday with potential for up to 8 foot swell. Seas will diminish Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Hewitt Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Duda/Hewitt/MCW Marine...Duda/Hewitt/MCW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.