Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201657 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE 1255 PM EDT: RAISED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING NORTH AND EAST IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS AREA HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE / SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST. ALSO MADE SOME FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTH INTO HIGH. GFS SHOWING SOME POPS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEED BACK. WILL USE BLEND OF NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS. FOR SKY HAVE USED THE NAM...GFS... MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS FROM THE MOSG25 BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY POPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS TERM INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED W/THIS FEATURE. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 700-500MB LEVEL AND SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. SOUNDING DATA INDICATED SB CAPES OF 300-600 J/KG W/LIS OF -1 TO -3. PWATS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SWEAT INDEX LESS THAN 200 AND THE TOTAL TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR JUST ISOLD TSTMS. GFS LOOKED OVERDONE W/THE LLVL MOISTURE WHILE THE NAM APPEARED TO BE OK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP 20-30% FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE, A TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARMING ALOFT W/500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CAP. MOISTURE AROUND THE 800MB LEVEL BUT DRY ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ATTM, LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP AND PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AS WINDS GO SSW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST RUN OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL POINT TO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS NOW MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS AND ECMWF OF BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR TSTMS W/THE FRONT BUT HOW STRONG REMAINS TO BE IN QUESTION DUE TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SUN AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY. SOME INDICATION IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST COULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY(50%) AS CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DECIDED TO GO A TAD WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST W/MID 80S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST AS A SSW WIND COULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER. MUCH ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY W/DAYTIME READINGS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/A SSW FLOW DEVELOPING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH IN THIS CASE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IN LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE GROUP GENERATE IN SOUTH AND EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS GROUP TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET/8-9 SECONDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TERM. A SOUTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THE PERIOD OF 9 T0 10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT AT BEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MIGNONE/HEWITT

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