Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250635 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 135 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CROSS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND STATES ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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130 AM UPDATE: POPS WERE ADJUSTED EASTWARD BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR LOOP AND ITS TRENDS OVER THE LAST 3 HR SHOWING PRECIP SHIELD EXITING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY CLOUDS HANGING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS CLEARING WAS MOVING EAST AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST AND COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. IN FACT, MANY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH WILL SEE EARLY MORNING HIGHS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS (-15F TO -25F) BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE SHORT TERM OPENS WITH CONTD MDT LLVL ADVCN OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FA SUN EVE...WITH WIND SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE SUN NGT INTO ERLY MON MORN. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND CHILL HDLN SUN NGT...SPCLY OVR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. WE DID GO BLO GUIDANCE FOR OVRNGT LOWS SUN NGT OVR NW VLYS...WHERE SHALLOW DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC INVSN TO FORM LATE AT NGT. MON SHOULD CONT FAIR AND VERY COLD WITH LGT WINDS AS THE SFC HI MOVES OVR NRN ME BY LATE AFTN. HI CLDNSS FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE SE STATES WILL BE ADVCN NWRD ACROSS DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY ADVC S TO N ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT MON...WITH SN REACHING THE THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA VERY LATE MON NGT. OVRNGT LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ERLY...ARND OR JUST BEFORE MDNGT OVR THE S HLF OF THE FA DUE TO THE THICKENING CLD CVR THERE. WITH ALL MODELS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST ERLY TUE MORN...THEN TRACKING IT NNE OFF THE SE NEW COAST LATER TUE...WE NEEDED TO BEEF POPS UP WELL INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. TUE INTO TUE NGT FOR MOST OF THE FA. THIS RECENT MODEL TREND WAS HINTED A FEW DAYS AGO WITH CPC`S 6 TO 100 DAY OUTLOOK...BUT WAS LOST IN MODEL SOLUTIONS YSTDY AND THE DAY BEFORE...LIKELY BECAUSE MOST OF THE ENERGY IS DIGGING SE FROM NW CAN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW MUCH UPPER LVL JET ENERGY FROM NW CAN THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL HAVE ONCE IT REACHES THE SRN APLCHNS...MODELS VARY ON THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT FILLING OF THE SFC LOW. THIS VARIES FROM RAPID ERLY INTENSIFICATION AS SHOWN BY THE 12Z OPNL ECMWF WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE MID ATLC AND ERN NEW ENG STATES WITH HVY SN THE MOST...TO MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z GFS AND CANGEM...WHICH IMPACTS MSLY ERN NEW ENG AND THE SW HLF OF ME WITH THE HEAVIEST SNFL. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BLEND THESE TWO MODEL CAMPS. USING THE BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SNFL OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVR NW ME...THE ONLY PTN OF THE FA THIS UPDATE WHERE POPS DO NOT GET ABV LIKELY. EVEN BLENDING THE MODELS AND GOING WITH CONSERVATIVE 6 HRLY QPF AND ASSOCIATED 6 HRLY SN GRIDS WITH ABOUT 12 TO 13 TO ONE SLR`S... IF MODELS HOLD ON THIS TRACK OR CONT TOWARD A STRONGER...AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER N TRACK TOWARD THE BAY OF FUNDY...NE WNTR STM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE FA. GIVEN THAT WE CURRENTLY STILL HAVE WNTR WX HDLNS WITH CURRENT STM IMPACTING THE FA THRU EVE AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEW EVOLUTION THRU TUE...NO WNTR STM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS STM ATTM THIS UPDATE. HI TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COLD TUE....BUT INCREASING NE WINDS WILL NOT MAKE IT FEEL ANY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN MON`S HI TEMPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE AND ONTO WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD WIND AND SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHTS STORM SHOWS THE LOW CENTER TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THEN WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SMALL LOW APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS. CLEARING AND VERY COLD WEATHER SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KBGR AND KBHB THROUGH ABOUT 06Z, WITH MVFR AT THE NORTHERN SITES, AS A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING SNOW TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS, BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AROUND UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON NGT. CLGS AND VSBYS WILL POTENTIALLY QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR/LIFR IN SN FROM S TO N ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON TUE AND CONT SO INTO TUE NGT BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR ON WED IN RESIDUAL SN SHWRS AND THEN VFR WED NGT INTO THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BUILD TO GUST TO 40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT THE GALE WARNING WILL NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT TERM: MOST MODELS INDICATE STRONG SCA COLD ADVCN NW WINDS CONTG OVR THE THE WATERS INTO SUN EVE...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...THEN WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. MDT FZGSPY IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF SUN NGT DUE TO FALLING TEMPS AND WINDS. A SHORT BREAK BLO SCA IS XPCTD OVR OUR WATERS LATE MON THRU MON NGT...BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO POTENTIAL GALE FORCE BY TUE AFTN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLC STATES. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z OPNL NAM AND GFS EVEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF STM FORCE WINDS OVR OUR WATERS TUE AFTN...BUT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW UNTIL WE ARE CERTAIN ON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS NEXT STM SYSTEM. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WV HTS...XCPT ON TUE WHERE WE WENT A LITTLE LOWER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE STM EVOLUTION AND EXACT TRACK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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