Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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152 FXUS61 KCAR 281257 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 857 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. High pressure will briefly build into the area, followed by a stronger cold front on Saturday afternoon. High pressure will build for Saturday night and Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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850 am Update... Light rain, drizzle and fog will continue under the subsidence inversion this morning. The weakening cold front will cross this afternoon and gradually push out the low level moisture later this afternoon into the evening. The exception will be towards the coast and Down East region where fog will linger through the evening. Winds will be the big concern for Saturday with deep mixing and gusts over 30 mph...a big change from recent days. previous discussion Widespread low clouds with areas of fog and drizzle was once again occurring across all of northern and down east Maine this morning. This is in association with light southerly flow and low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion. The inversion begins to break by late this afternoon with the passage of a weak cold front from the west. Until then, expect plenty of low clouds to linger into the afternoon. Latest MRMS reflectivity data was showing a weakening band of showers extending from Ontario through New York State. Latest HRRR shows the band weakening as it moves east into northwest Maine later this morning. Some weak surface based cape will be present this afternoon toward Piscataquis county and the central highlands. There is an outside chance of an isolated thunderstorm toward this area late this afternoon but feel that the chance is too minimal to mention attm. Highs today will range from the low to mid 60s north and central areas, but it will be much cooler along the downeast coast, where low clouds and areas of fog will hold temperatures in the 50s. Tonight should see partial clearing with the passage of the front, but low level moisture will keep low clouds and areas of fog along the coastal plain until the front crosses later this evening. It will be cooler tonight with lows falling into the 40s across much of the area by morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Models agree that fast movg s/wv from the Great Lks associated with an upper lvl jet streak will rapidly cross the region durg the day Sat. What models do not agree is how wide spread rn shwrs will be with this system or how much QPF will occur. In producing PoPs for this system, we first blended fcst QPF, which resulted in less QPF than the most aggressive model, the opnl 00z GFS, but a little more than the 00z ECMWF and sig more than the 00Z CanGem with the max QPF axis across Cntrl ptns of the FA, where max PoPs reach categorical lvls. This fast movg system will then rapidly move E of our Rgn by late Sat aftn, resulting in clrg by eve. Subsequently, hi temps will be tricky, with hrly temps rising quickly in the morn before shwrs, then again aft shwrs end, before a mdtly strong secondary cold front sweeps the Rgn by Sat eve. In addition, stronger winds alf will be allowed to mix to the sfc with steeper low to mid lvl lapse rates Say aftn into Sat eve. Ovrngt lows will be cooler with much drier conditions following the secondary cold front later Sat ngt as breezy NW winds cont. Followed by msly sunny, somewhat breezy and cooler Sun. Aft the sfc ridge axis crosses the region erly Sun eve, winds will become calm as hi/mid cldnss advc into the Rgn from the W ovrngt Sun. The leading edge of rnfl from low pres advcg from the Great Lks will reach far Wrn ptns of our Rgn by erly Mon morn. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled and cooler conditions will prevail thru the long term. Rnfl will spread across the rest of the Rgn Mon and then cont Mn ngt into Tues as the main Great Lks sfc low tracks into Cntrl QB and a secondary low forms alg the occlusion point ovr Downeast ME. This set-up will allow llvl cold air damming to msly hold across th region Mon into Tue with hi temps in the 40s across the Rgn on Sun and 40s N to lower 50s Downeast on Tue. Total event rnfl amts thru Tue vary greatly across the models, with the 00z GFS indicating as much as 1.5+ inches to as little as a half inch from the 00Z CanGem...so even if we assume total rnfl somewhere between these two scenarios, there will lkly be some rvr rises following the event. Rn will taper to sct shwrs Tue ngt, with unsettled cool shwry conditions contg Wed into at least Thu morn spcly across then N hlf of the FA as whats left of an upper trof crosses the region. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread LIFR conditions will continue this morning in low ceilings and fog. IFR ceilings will persist through early this afternoon before gradually improving to MVFR by late afternoon and then to VFR. The exception will be Bar Harbor KBHB where IFR conditions will persist into this evening in low clouds and areas of fog. Conditions will improve to VFR tonight across the northern terminals, but patchy fog could still result in IFR conditions toward KBGR/KBHB through early tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR conditions will prevail across our TAF sites Sat thru Sun ngt, xcpt briefly MVFR clgs/vsbys with rn shwrs late Sat morn into erly aftn. Aftwrds, clgs/vsbys will lower to MVFR in steady rn on Mon then IFR in rn Mon ngt and Tues. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Long period swell around 11 seconds continues with seas running between 5 and 7 feet across the outer waters. Expect long period swell to continue into this afternoon before diminishing by early this evening. Have extended the small craft advisory for seas through this afternoon. Visibility will be reduced to 1 nm or less in areas of fog into this evening before improving tonight with the passage of a weak cold front. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Near SCA wind/sea conditions are xpctd late Sat into Sat ngt, then no hdlns xpctd Sun thru Mon midday. SCA conditions are again possible late Mon aftn thru Tue ngt. We went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru these ptns of the fcst. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Duda/MCW Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/MCW/VJN Marine...Duda/MCW/VJN

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