Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260211 CCA AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1011 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WILL BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1010 PM UPDATE... HV RMVD THUNDER FM RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT HRS AS LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY MUCH NON-EXISTENT. K-INDICES PROGGED TO INCREASE TO ARND 35 AFT 08Z ACRS THE NORTHWEST BUT NEVER GET ANY HIGHER THAN THAT. THINK CHCS OF THUNDER OVRNGT ARE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. INTERMITTENT RAIN...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW GENERAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80F...EXCEPT AROUND 70F ON THE COAST. CONTINUED POP/WX/QPF GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS FCST...LOADED BLEND GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM FOR WNDS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 30 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED WNAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT AMPLIFIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN AN EARLY TASTE OF SUMMER. H925 TEMPS WILL EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH SEVERAL EFFECTS. FIRST...COASTAL FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS. SECOND...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIRD...THIS MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE AMPLE FUEL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH A THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IN QUEBEC WILL APPROACH THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOWER 60S...MARKING THE WARMEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR SO FAR AND POTENTIALLY A RECORD WARM LOW. THESE ELEVATED LOWS WILL PROVIDE A SPRINGBOARD TO HIGHS THAT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO REDUCE HIGHS ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AND GENERATE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DOWN EAST WILL LIKELY NOT BE AFFECTED. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH 40K FT TOPS...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGH PWATS AND DEEP WARM LAYERS...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S AND SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE COAST WILL SEE LOWS DROP TO THE LOWER 50S WITH FOG. THE STALLED COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT CREEPS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE THE DAY OF CONCERN FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL DIE DOWN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTION FOR FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF THE FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINLY WHERE IT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MARK THE RETURN TO A CANADIAN AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF WITH BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR AFTER 05Z ACROSS SRN TERMINALS OF BGR AND BHB AND AFTER 06Z OVER THE NORTH. EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHORTLY AFTER ONSET OF -SHRA. RESTRICTIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARD 18Z TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA. SHORT TERM: VFR TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TOWARDS HUL. FOG AND STRATUS WILL CREATE IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BHB AND THE COAST WHERE LIFR IS PROBABLE. THIS WILL BURN OFF THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE THREAT AGAIN. THESE STORMS MAY REACH FL400 BOTH DAYS. VFR RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FT MAINLY IN A SOUTHERLY SWELL. SHORT TERM: FOG IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN...STARTING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP WINDS DOWN...BUT LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY HIT 5 FT AT TIMES. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORTON SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...FARRAR/NORTON/MCW MARINE...FARRAR/NORTON/MCW

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