Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260952 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 552 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will remain to our west this week. Occasional disturbances tracking out of this trough and across our area will bring periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 5:50 AM: Have adjusted pop grids over western Aroostook higher and also added isolated thunder based on radar. Have also adjusted temperature and dew points based on latest observations. A trough of low pressure currently over the region will weaken during the day today. A few isolated showers are possible this morning. Skies are expected to be partly sunny this afternoon. Surface and upper level low pressure will approach the region from the west tonight with clouds increasing later tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... S/wv dropping thru the MN Arrowhead at this time wl deepen as it digs into the Great Lakes by the start of the short term. This wl keep shower chances in thru the middle of the week, mainly in diurnal htg of the day. Best focus for Tue looks to be acrs the north where wk sfc bndry wl reside. As temps climb to nr 70 with dewpts in the 50s, along with steepening mid-lvl lapse rates, wl mention chc thunder aft 18z mainly north of coastal Downeast. Thunder wl diminish Tue evng as airmass stabilizes at sunset. Expect isold showers wl be hit and miss drg the ovrngt hrs with upr trof hanging back to the west. Airmass once again destabilizes in the aftn leading to chc for thunder, hwvr upr lvl trof and assoc wk sfc bndry mvs thru by aftn. Thus not expecting any more than just sctd pops with isold thunder. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wed night wl feature a vry brief break in shower chcs as s/wv ridge builds in aloft. Latest guidance differs quite a bit for Thur regarding pcpn chcs with GFS/EC mvg system into the central Great Lks by 00z Fri with warm advection pcpn affecting wrn zones and eventually all zones Thur night. 00z CMC is a tad slower with steadier pcpn not mvg in until 12z Fri. Wl hedge twd GFS and EC soln with lkly pops expected Thur ngt along with chc for thunder. Unsettled wx conts thru next weekend as upr lvl trof hangs back to our west. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today and tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR expected Tue morning across the north with possible IFR at BHB in low clouds/fog. Potential for MVFR on Tue afternoon north of BGR in -tsra. MVFR/IFR late Tue night into Wed morning once again in low clouds/fog. VFR expected Thur before restrictions move in again Fri morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have initialized the wind grids with the NAM. Will lower wind speed by 10 percent due to the relatively cold sea surface temperatures across local waters. For Waves: Long period swell (around 3 feet/8 seconds) will be the primary wave system through tonight. A secondary wind wave group out of the southwest is expected to remain less than 1 foot. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) for wave heights. Have adjusted wave heights in the Surf Zone Forecast using the 5 meter isobath contour output from NWPS. SHORT TERM: Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA until late Thur night. Visibilities over the waters will be reduced, possibly Tue morning but likely Wed morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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