Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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733 FXUS61 KCAR 201607 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1107 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area today. A weak cold front will cross the region Saturday. High pressure will build north of the region Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will intensify along the mid Atlantic coast Monday, and will move north toward the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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11 AM Update...Forecast remains on track. Cloud cover was increased just a bit Downeast where clear areas have been filling in with some mid level overcast. Otherwise, no major changes this hour. Previous discussion... A weak surface high will build over the area today making for a pleasant day with dry weather and light wind. Clouds will likely hang in across northern areas, although a few breaks are possible this afternoon. Across the Down East region the sky will become p/sunny. Temperatures will be more typical of early-mid March than January with highs ranging from near the freezing mark across the Crown to the upper 30s in the Bangor Region and along the coast. A weak surface trough approaches from the nw this evening and moves into northern Maine late tonight. It will be accompanied by clouds and perhaps some late night flurries, mainly from the Katahdin Region north to the Saint John Valley. Lows will be unseasonably mild for this time of year ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fairly tranquil weather will prevail over the weekend as we remain between significant weather systems. High pressure will shift to our east on Saturday, followed by a weak cold frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday. A few snow showers are possible across northern areas Sunday afternoon behind the front as winds turn to the northwest. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected. Temperatures will be above normal through the weekend, though Sunday will be a few degrees cooler than Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The focus this period continues to be a mid-week storm that will bring a round of mixed precipitation to the region. Though they differ on the details, the longer range models continue to be in relatively decent agreement on the overall setup. High pressure will be well established across eastern New England Sunday night and Monday. Meanwhile, surface low pressure will push eastward across the Carolinas. This low will move off the coast Monday night and then lift northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night. Warm air will spread northward into New England ahead of this system and lift over the colder airmass at the surface. The result will be snow changing over to a messy mix of sleet and freezing rain. Snow looks to move into our coastal areas late Monday afternoon and reach the Saint John Valley by early Tuesday morning. The mixed precipitation is a bit harder to pin down as when, where, and how much depends highly on where the low tracks, which the models still disagree on. For now, have gone with a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS, the latter of which has trended a bit colder than previous runs. The mixing will begin in earnest late Monday night and continue to spread northward Tuesday, though the far northern areas appear to remain all snow until Tuesday night. Meanwhile, expect Downeast and the Bangor region to warm up enough to transition to all rain by Tuesday afternoon. Surface temperatures will fall only slightly Tuesday night with warming continuing aloft. The real push of colder air arrives sometime on Wednesday once the low moves well to our east. Expect lingering precipitation will taper to showers by afternoon. Regardless, this has the potential to bring fairly significant impacts to our area. Please stay tuned to later forecasts as certainty will increase as the event draws nearer and the models converge on a solution. Beyond Wednesday...snow showers will continue to threaten as the upper low slowly pivots across eastern Canada. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR this morning at the northern terminals should improve to VFR by midday. VFR expected today at the Downeast terminals. Forecast confidence is lower tonight with occasional MVFR possible at times, especially after midnight. SHORT TERM: MVFR/VFR conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week with ceilings likely to waver between 1500 and 3500 ft. Brief IFR conditions are possible late Saturday night through Sunday as a weak cold front moves through, followed by a few snow showers across the north. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The seas continue to run around 5 feet at the Eastern Maine Shelf and Jonesport early this morning. The seas will slowly subside this morning, and both the wind and seas are expected to be below small craft advisory levels through 12Z sat. SHORT TERM: No headlines will be needed through the weekend as high pressure lingers over the waters. However, winds will increase Sunday night after a cold front crosses the Gulf of Maine. This trend will continue through Monday as low pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic Coast. At the least a high-end Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed by Monday evening. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCB Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...CB/Hastings Marine...CB/Hastings

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