Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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919 FXUS61 KCAR 241537 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1137 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build into the region today and will move east by Monday morning. A warm front will lift toward the region later Monday and will be followed by a cold front Monday night. An upper level disturbance will cross the area Tuesday. Weak high pressure will build back into the region for the middle of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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11:40 AM Update...adjusted cloud cover to account for develop cumulus field over western highland. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy western areas and partly cloudy east to mostly clear downeast this afternoon. Temps remain on track. Orgnl Disc: We dropped the rest of the mention of patchy fog for the srn ptn of the FA for erly this morn, with NW sfc winds bringing drier air even to the coast. Otherwise, we xpct ptly to msly sunny skies tdy with abv normal hi temps contg. In fact, we raised hi temps a couple of deg F based on current temps a few deg warmer erly this morn than prev fcst and the warm bias of obsvd hi temps compared to fcst hi temps ovr the last couple of days. Skies will be clear this eve into the ovrngt hrs with lgt winds, with increasing hi cldnss late tngt as warm advcn moisture hi alf crosses E ovr the top of the 500mb ridge. Ovrngt low temps will be a little cooler, but still slightly abv avg.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure in the vicinity of James Bay at 12Z Mon morning will move into western Quebec Monday afternoon with a warm front to lift into western Maine by 00z Tue. A cold front will follow Monday night with the front to push off the coast Tue morning. A mid to upper level trough will follow and will cross northern Maine. Expect the chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm Monday with a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday night. Right now it looks like the most unstable air Monday afternoon remains to the west of the area across southern Quebec and NH and VT. The precipitable H20 values climb to over 1.5 inches, so any thunderstorms may contain some heavy downpours. Any instability Mon night appears to be aloft and fairly modest so at this time not expecting any severe weather. will add the mention of heavy rain with the storms Monday afternoon into Monday evening. On Tuesday, the freezing levels lower, and with the upper trough passage there is some instability and expect scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly across the northern zones with the potential that any storms may contain small hail and have added the small hail into the forecast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak high pressure follows Tue night into Wed, and it looks mainly dry. The next cold front approaches Thu and will slowly move across the area Fri and may stall out across the region into the start of the weekend, but the models remain uncertain, and forecaster confidence late in the week into the start of the weekend is low. There will likely be some weak and ill defined impulses that track along the frontal boundary that are impossible to discern with any clarity at this time range. For now will stick very close to the inherited forecast and a multi model ensemble blend. Temperatures mid to late week will average a little above average, but no extreme heat or humidity is expected. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd all TAF sites tdy thru tngt. SHORT TERM: VFR to start the day Mon. MVFR at times later Mon into Mon night in scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief IFR possible in any heavier rain. VFR should return to the Downeast terminals Tue, but with variable conditions persisting at the northern terminals. Predominately VFR for Tue night into Thu morning with MVFR possible again in scattered showers and thunderstorms Thu afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd tdy thru tngt. Any marine ST/fog erly this morn should lift and dissipate by mid to late morn. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through the end of the week. There will be times when there is some fog on the waters late in the week along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN/MCB Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...VJN/CB Marine...VJN/CB

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