Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231624 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1124 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND TRACK TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 1120 EST: HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ADJUST WEATHER GRIDS TO INCREASE AREAS WITH SNOW. ALSO INCREASED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. A STRATUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE MARITIMES. SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SRPEAD INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TODAY AND SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BUT RISE ABOVE FREEZING DOWNEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLAIN RAIN DOWNEAST AND SOME FREEZING RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL AREAS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, BUT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE FAR NORTH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN MAINE, AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. ALL AREAS SHOULD TOP THE FREEZING MARK BY THE END OF THE DAY AS EXTREMELY MILD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CONTINUING. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, EXPECT RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH EXTREMELY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS AT RECORD LEVELS, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ON CHRISTMAS DAY FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DAMAGE FROM THE WINDS, THOUGH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE WIND MAINLY DOWNEAST. FOR MORE ON POSSIBLE RECORD TEMPS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HYDROLOGY ISSUES, SEE OTHER SECTIONS OF DISCUSSION BELOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TEMPERATURES FALL THURSDAY NIGHT AT LAST AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. THE SNOWPACK WILL HAVE TAKEN A SERIOUS BEATING. EVEN NORTHERN MAINE WILL ONLY BE LEFT WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW, IF THAT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS ISN`T EVEN REMOTELY A COLD HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MINOR SYSTEM...ONLY WENT WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE AT MOST TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AT NORTHERN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH ALL SITES BECOMING RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS WILL BUILD TO AN SCA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO GALE LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. && .HYDROLOGY... AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AND COUPLED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT, THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW SIGNIFICANT THE ISSUES WILL BE. THERE IS GENERALLY TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOWPACK OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS, MUCH OF WHICH COULD MELT DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES, ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS, AND SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SOME REMAINING ICE JAMS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THAW, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE. ONE JAM IS JUST DOWNRIVER OF FORT FAIRFIELD. ANY JAMS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED ISSUES DURING THE UPCOMING EVENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING FROM THE UPCOMING STORM, THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR OVERTOPPING ISSUES. THE TWO HIGH TIDES OF CONCERN ARE THE MIDDAY THURSDAY HIGH TIDE AND THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE. && .CLIMATE... FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR CARIBOU, WE ARE FORECASTING 49, AND THE RECORD IS 48. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR BANGOR, WE ARE FORECASTING 55, AND THE RECORD HIGH IS 51. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001-002. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050>052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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