Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221031 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 631 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST TOWARD WESTERN MAINE BY LATE TODAY PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES BACK NORTH. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN BY LATE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU. A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU... && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS... && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TO START ALL TERMINALS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL) AND THEN EVENTUALLY IFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS (KBGR/KBHB) THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT... && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS COULD INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT BY TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THUS MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS MARGINAL HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN SCA FOR SEAS AT THIS TIME AND LET THE NEXT CREW RE-EVALUATE THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE SCA FOR SEAS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/ A VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS. STRONG SCA CONDS WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG LOW PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS... && .HYDROLOGY... A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. LEVELS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BTWN 1-2 INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR E AND NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE AMOUNTS... SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR LARGER RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN... ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...KHW LONG TERM...KHW AVIATION...DUDA/KHW MARINE...DUDA/KHW HYDROLOGY...

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