Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 010329 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1029 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN SHELTERED LOW LYING LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON. MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS. ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN. GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT TUES MRNG. && .CLIMATE... THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON CLIMATE...CB

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