Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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856 FXUS61 KCAR 151403 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1003 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will result in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across northern and western zones. The cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will build in from Canada Wednesday night and remain over the area through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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10 am update... The main change with this update was to add gusty winds/small hail wording to include the Penobscot region as latest SPC day one outlook has shifted the marginal risk area a bit further south on their 12z update. Wind looks to be the primary threat, with the potential for hail as well in any stronger storms with freezing levels around 10.5 ft. Have updated the Hazardous Weather Outlook to mention gusty winds and small hail to include the greater Penobscot region, otherwise no other significant changes to going forecast. Prev discussion blo... The cdfnt due in this evng is currently south of James Bay with showers ahd of it. High clds are streaming into the CWA in sw flow aloft ahd of upr lvl trof. Low stratus has crept onshore along the coast with ocnl patchy fog inland, mainly nr rvr vlys. Expect that patchy fog wl be less prevalent as clds thicken this mrng. Compact s/wv currently rotating thru srn Ontario and wl lkly appch the state fm Quebec around 15z this mrng. This wl result in isold showers dvlpng by late mrng acrs the northwest and increasing thru the aftn as instability increases. Latest NAM looks overblown on CAPE this aftn with high bias on dwpts, thus hv sided more twd RAP with regard to instability. Best 0-6km shear this aftn looks to be to the south of where best instability is expected. Hwvr, shear still appears to be strong enuf to continue mention of gusty winds in fcst acrs the north and west this aftn. Convection wl drop south late this aftn into more stable marine lyr thus expect just isold thunder mainly south of Bangor region down twd the coast. Expect that patchy fog dvlps tonight bfr drier dwpts mv in fm the north in wake of fropa. Highs tda wl be similar to yda with cooler temps along the immediate coast in onshore flow and low stratus expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The cold front will be making its final eastward push across the state Wednesday. As such, expect a few lingering showers across far eastern areas during the morning hours, with perhaps a thunderstorm or two toward afternoon. Drier air will spread into the state behind the front, so precipitation will come to an end by the mid-afternoon hours. There will be a fairly good spread in high temperatures for the day given the frontal passage; the Saint John Valley will be in the upper 60s to around 70 while interior Downeast will top out around 80. Wednesday night and Thursday...The upper low will cross just to our north, bringing clouds to northern areas. Given the dry air behind the front, don`t expect any rain from this system. Wednesday night`s lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s north, and in the mid 50s Downeast. Thursday will see temperatures mainly in the 70s, with the warmest readings for interior Downeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure across New England will shift eastward as low pressure lifts across the Great Lakes. This system will bring the threat of showers to the area Friday into Sunday, particularly Friday night and Saturday when the cold front crosses the region. As is usual for the extended period, models can`t agree on the exact details, especially frontal timing and the associated precip placement. Sunday`s showers will be the result of the passing upper trough and so should fall mainly northern areas. the trough axis will move to our east Monday morning, allowing dry weather to return. Clouds will decrease from west to east through the day Monday; right now, it`s looking like we should luck out for viewing the eclipse. However, if the cold front/upper trough passage is delayed by even just 6-12 hours, the eclipse could be hidden by clouds, especially for people in eastern sections of the CWA. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for northern terminals this morning, though very localized patchy fog may drop restrictions to MVFR for less than 30 minutes specifically PQI. Expect VCTS after 18z this afternoon with VFR conds. After 02z tonight for terminals north of PQI restrictions drop to MVFR in low clouds and br. HUL will dip to IFR after 06z. BGR and BHB will start off with IFR restrictions before becoming MVFR at BGR after 1330z. VFR this morning and afternoon before dropping to IFR overnight. BHB will likely be IFR into the afternoon before becoming MVFR for several hours and then dropping back to IFR tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday through Thursday night, though brief MVFR is possible in an isolated shower or two, mainly at HUL. Showers will spread from west to east Friday, with MVFR likely at all sites by 00z Sat. IFR will be possible in any heavier showers, but expect MVFR to prevail through a good part of the weekend. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed through tonight. Areas of fog will affect the waters this morning and once again tonight. SHORT TERM: Headlines are possible later Wednesday into Thursday as long period south swell from Hurricane Gert affects the waters. Seas of 5 to 7 feet are possible. Winds will remain under 20 kt through Thursday, so any headlines would be for seas only. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Farrar Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Duda/Farrar/Hastings Marine...Duda/Farrar/Hastings

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