302
FXUS61 KCAR 171430
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1030 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will gradually shift offshore today. A disturbance
will cross the region Saturday. High pressure will move south
across the region Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM Update: Partly cloudy skies continue this morning behind
the recent frontal passage. This afternoon, a weak disturbance
will move into the area that will bring scattered rain showers
across the north. These showers can already be picked up heading
east towards the area on the lowest KCBW radar tilt. Aside from
raising temperatures slightly along the coast due to offshore
flow this morning, the previous forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
The frontal boundary that has produced showers and
thunderstorms in recent days will continue to move offshore.
This will result in a less pronounced seabreeze today versus
yesterday. However, the next longwave trough will be approaching
from the west. This will be enough to bring back the threat of
afternoon showers.

The greatest threat of showers will be west of Route 11 into the
North Woods. However, a few showers cannot be ruled out anywhere
from the Bangor region northward. With little instability,
thunder is not expected today. Most of these showers will end
this evening with the loss of daytime heating. The exception
may be near the Quebec border where there could still be a few
showers tonight. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s
inland, with 60s at the coast. Lows tonight will be in the lower
to mid 50s, except 40s along the water.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador will ridge
across the region Saturday while low pressure tracks south of
the Gulf of Maine. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will begin
to move east across the region Saturday. Uncertainty still
exists regarding the interaction between the disturbance and the
northern edge of the moisture field from the low tracking south
of the Gulf of Maine. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a
chance of showers across the region Saturday. However, if more
significant interaction occurs between the disturbance and
moisture field then more extensive showers and possibly a
steadier rain could occur across mostly Downeast areas. The
disturbance will exit across the Maritimes Saturday night, while
surface ridging persists. Will still have a chance of showers
early Saturday night, with shower chances then decreasing
overnight. Surface ridging persists Sunday, with upper level
ridging also building toward the region. Could still have the
slight chance of a shower early Sunday across southeast portions
of the forecast area with the exiting system. Otherwise, expect
a mostly cloudy/partly sunny morning with clouds then
decreasing during the afternoon. Surface/upper level ridging
cross the region Sunday night with partly cloudy/mostly clear
skies. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures
are expected Saturday/Sunday. The coolest temperatures are
expected along the Downeast coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The surface ridge begins to move south Monday, while an
approaching disturbance begins to flatten the upper ridge.
Expect partly sunny skies along with a slight chance of showers
across northern areas Monday, with partly/mostly sunny skies
Downeast. The disturbance will move north of the region Monday
night, keeping partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance
of showers across northern areas and partly cloudy/mostly clear
skies Downeast. Uncertainty then develops Tuesday into
Wednesday regarding the strength and persistence of the upper
ridge. A stronger ridge would help limit shower chances
Tuesday/Wednesday. A weaker ridge could allow disturbances to
more easily cross the region with better shower chances. Due to
the uncertainty, have kept only a slight chance/chance of showers
Tuesday into Wednesday with partly cloudy skies. A frontal
system could then cross the region Thursday with a chance of
showers. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Monday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Any leftover MVFR trends to VFR by 12z. Brief MVFR
possible with VCSH this afternoon BGR northward. Mainly VFR
tonight. Possible MVFR/IFR late with BR and BCFG. Light E-NE
winds this morning, becoming E-SE 5-10 kts this afternoon and
tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers north. VFR/MVFR,
occasional IFR, Downeast with more extensive showers.
Southeast/east winds 5 to 10 knots northern areas.
Northeast/east winds around 10 knots Downeast.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. Decreasing shower chances.
Northeast/east winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...Occasional MVFR with a slight chance of showers early.
Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday through Monday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of
showers north. VFR Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday...Uncertainty dependent on potential low pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wave heights around 4 feet today and tonight on the
outer waters. However, seas are not expected to build above
Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Winds remain well
below SCA levels today and tonight. Patchy fog could reduce
visibility on the waters this morning and again tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Saturday through Sunday night. Showers Saturday into Saturday
night. Patchy fog Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Clark
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross
Marine...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross