Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 300151
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
951 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure returns tonight into Tuesday. Another frontal
system will affect the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
950 pm update...
High clouds are mvg into far nw tonight. This may put a damper on
rvr vly fog for ovrngt hrs and hv opted to lv mention out at this
time. Quick update to hrly t/td values with no chgs needed with
this update.

Prev discussion blo...
The cold front has pretty much moved off-shore at this hour and
drier Canadian high pressure is following in the front`s wake. Skies
will clear and winds will subside this evening in response to the
building high, so it should be a good radiational cooling night. We
didn`t see any significant rain through the day today, so don`t
expect widespread fog development, though wouldn`t be surprised if
some of the more sheltered river valleys see some patchy fog toward
daybreak. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across
Aroostook County and the North Woods, while Downeast areas will
remain in the lower to mid 50s.

The high will slowly slide over the region Tuesday morning and then
to our east Tuesday afternoon. As such, expect plenty of sunshine in
the morning, but clouds will increase during the afternoon. A warm
front will approach late in the day, so a few showers may pop up
across the far north mid- to late-afternoon. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 70s north and along the immediate coast,  while central
and interior Downeast will top out in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Most models agree that an initial surge of moisture will move E
into msly Nrn ptns of the FA from QB Tue ngt with shwrs as a lead
s/wv alf moves E toward the FA from Cntrl Can. Rnfl amts look
relatively lgt Tue ngt for now, with not enough elevated CAPE attm
to mention thunder for this pd attm.

There appears to be a break Wed morn before diffluent flow alf
ahead of a stronger s/wv from Cntrl Can sets up ovr the FA for
Wed aftn and erly eve. Fcst max SBCAPEs vary by model from less
than 500 J/kg to upwards to 1000 J/kg, with mid lvl dry air
possibly encroaching to far into the llvl moist mixed layer. If
strong enough updrafts were to initiate, enough sfc-6km bulk shear
exists for lclzd tstms capable of sig hail and strong to damaging
gusty winds, but not certain attm to go with any enhanced tstm
wording.

Following any diurnally driven tstms erly Wed eve, Models indicate
a baroclinic leaf of shwrs affecting msly Downeast ptns of the FA,
where we went with low likely PoPs late Wed ngt into Thu morn, as
most of the energy of the second stronger s/wv moves N of the FA.
Meanwhile, mid lvl dry slotting will move into the Nrn hlf of the
FA from QB by Thu. The crossing of the upper trof axis across Nrn
ptns of the FA later Thu into Thu eve will bring sct low top shwrs
to this ptn of the FA, with drying ovr Downeast areas. Temps will
be near normal by day and a little abv normal at ngt due to cld
cvr.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The models are in good agreement at the start of the period. A
frontal system south of the area over the southern Gulf of Maine.
An upper level trough extending across northern Maine, will be the
major weather features at the start of the period. By Friday
morning upper level trough will move through the state into the
Gulf of Maine and higher pressure will build into the area. At
this time high pressure is forecasted to dominate to the end of
the period. A cold front will push into northwest Maine at the end
of the period. A tropical low is forecasted to move across
northern Florida Friday morning. The GFS is forecasting at this
time to track north along the gulf stream being off the coast of
the NC early Sunday morning, then it is expected to continue
moving slowly north to a position east of Cape Cod and South of
Bar Harbor by Tuesday morning. At this time it is forecasted to
stay south of the Gulf of Maine waters. The ECMWF however
maintains the high pressure ridge over the eastern seaboard and
move the low to the east of northern Florida. It is early and and
there are obviously different solutions for how this tropical low
will track and it will need to be watch for changes in track and
intensity.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal
waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. Winds light from the NW tonight will
back fm wsw after daybreak.

SHORT TERM: VFR all TAF sites thru Fri...xcpt briefly MVFR vsbys
with any tstm or heavier shwrs Tue ngt into Thu eve.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines are anticipated over the next 24 hours. Swells
from Hurricane Gaston have remained below 4 ft today and will remain
so as the system slowly pulls away. Winds will also subside
overnight as high pressure settles over the waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas apch...but should remain below SCA
criteria ovr the outer waters Tue ngt into Wed, and remain well
below SCA criteria Wed ngt into Thu and thru all of the short term
alg the immediate coast. Primary wv pds abv 10 sec will result in
potential mdt rip current risk alg local beaches tonight into Tue.
Otherwise, there is a 6 sec wind wv pd component. Went with about
90 percent of WW3 guidance for wv hts this update.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/Hastings
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Farrar/Hastings/VJN
Marine...Farrar/Hastings/VJN


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