Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 261024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



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