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000
FXUS61 KCAR 071403
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS THE VERY SHALLOW
RADIATION INVERSION DISSIPATES THIS MORNING. INCREASED WIND GUSTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SW FLOW. DECREASED LOWS FOR TONIGHT AS
RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASED POPS
WITH THE COLD FRONT IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AM. INCREASED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY TO INCLUDE READINGS OVER 40F FOR
ALL OF DOWN EAST ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. A SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REACH TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...SOMETHING THAT HASN`T HAPPENED IN
QUITE SOME TIME AROUND HERE. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. OUTSIDE
OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUT
AN END TO THE WIDESPREAD SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...AS OF THIS MORNING CARIBOU HAS SEEN
ELEVEN STRAIGHT DAYS OF SUB ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
DOWNEAST. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WX PTRN CONTS SAT THRU SUN... ONLY WX FEATURE OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE DURING THIS PD WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
NW-SE ACROSS THE FA ON SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT TO TRIGGER A FEW
-SW MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND W WITH TEMPS REMAINING A LITTLE ABV
SEASONAL NORMS. CAA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT
SAT NGT THRU SUN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS EWRD AND CRESTS
OUR AREA LATER SUN W/ TEMPS FALLING BACK TO BTWN 5-10 DEGREES BLO
SEASONAL NORMS.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA SUN NGT AS A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED BY BOTH THE LONGER RANGE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
TRACKS SEWRD AND PASSES JUST SW OF THE AREA ON MON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SOME -SN OR -SW ACROSS OUR SRN AREAS FROM ERLY
MON AM INTO ERLY MON AFTN W/ THIS SYSTEM PUSHING WELL SE OF THE
AREA BY LATE MON. A WEAK SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THEN REBUILDS
BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT BEFORE A STRONGER TROF OF LOW
PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH ON TUE AND CROSS
THE FA BY TUE EVE. BRISK N TO NWRLY WNDS WILL KICK IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT TUE NGT THRU WED W/ ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG CAA AND TEMPS WELL
BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WED INTO
WED NGT W/ THE 00Z GFS ADVERTISING LOW PRES FASTER AND FURTHER SE
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF - BRUSHING JUST OUR FAR SRN AREAS W/ SOME
PRECIP LATE WED NGT/THU WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS FURTHER NW AND
SLOWER W/ ITS TRACK - IN TURN BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA
W./ POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.
STILL MUCH TOO ERLY AND SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFS FOR ANY CERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT SO WILL ADVERTISE JUST CHC POPS FOR LATE IN THE PD...
&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KFVE VCNTY AFT 08Z WITH VSBY POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR. MVFR MAY ALSO DEVELOP KBHB VCNTY IN PATCHY FOG
AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDS ARE A SLGT POSSIBILITY SAT ACROSS THE NRN
TAF SITES AS A SFC COLD FRONTS SLIPS SEWRD ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER PD OF MVFR IS PSBL ON MON MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES
AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST S AND W OF THE REGION AND
AGAIN ON TUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS A TROF OF LOW PRES AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA...
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SFC LOW PRES WILL PASS WELL S AND SE OF THE WATERS SAT
WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATER SAT... THE SFC PRES
GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENUF BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS SAT NGT FOR CONDS
TO APPROACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. OTHERWISE...WND/SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU THE PD...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW