Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 261418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL PASS NEAR
CAPE COD TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. NO CHANGES IN THINKING FOR THE STORM SINCE THE EARLIER
UPDATE.

6AM UPDATE...
ADDED HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE ZONES EXPECTED TO BE MOST
IMPACTED...GENERALLY FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES TOWARDS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK. THIS
BELT SHOULD SEE 10 TO 12 INCHES...BEING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID
SLEET AND RECEIVE BETTER SNOW RATIOS...BUT NOT TOO FAR NORTH TO
MISS THE BEST QPF. ALSO REFINED THE ICE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON WHERE A WORST CASE OF 1/4 INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE...BUT EFFECTS SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY AT LEAST SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FALLING FIRST AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AROUND 32F.
MORE WORRISOME IS THE WIND ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
HAVE INCREASED GUSTS IN THIS UPDATE. GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
BANGOR...GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
A HEAVY WET SNOW AND THESE WINDS...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
MAY SET OFF A FEW FLURRIES IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH FROM READINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS SOUTHWARD AND CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF
THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH
OVERNIGHT...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONTINUED DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL QUICKLY ERASE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW PERIOD IS STILL PROGGED TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES
OVER AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES AND WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 35 MPH
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS START TURNING NW. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS
HEAVY.

THE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE RESULTED IN A SLIGHT
NORTHERN TURN TO THE STORM TRACK TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH IN NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS HAD TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WHERE BETTER SNOW RATIOS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SECOND...THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK MEANS MORE WARM AIR ALONG IN
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. IN
THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE TRADED FOR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM ELLSWORTH TO
CALAIS. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...A HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE AND MAYBE MORE TOWARDS CALAIS. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
IN AT TIMES TOO IN THIS REGION BUT THE WARM LAYER LOOKS TO BE MORE
A SLEET PRODUCER THAN FREEZING RAIN. NONETHELESS...WIND GUSTS OF
NEARLY 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL MAKE POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW STORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT 12Z THU
LIFTS UP TO NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON THU AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
EVENING SO NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. MAINLY DRY AND COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA FRI AND IT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE KATAHDIN
REGION NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND COLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT. A CLIPPER FROM THE MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM
RUN TO RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WHAT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS LOW
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MON WITH A SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE AIR MASS BY TUE MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS WINTER. AS THE HIGH WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA
MON NIGHT THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SOME WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS THE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS THEN
EXPECTED WED AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND A MILDER RETURN
FLOW SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE FROM PQI NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...IFR
BREAKS OUT FOR BGR AND BHB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADS
STEADILY NORTH TO FVE BY EVENING. 1/4SM VIS IS EXPECTED FOR BGR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL
SITES TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING AT BHB. WINDS AT FL020 WILL APPROACH 50 TO 60 KTS THIS
EVENING AT BHB AND BGR WITH LLWS A STRONG THREAT.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN SNOW EARLY THU WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THU
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS AND CLEARING FOLLOWS. VFR EXPECTED THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR VFR OR IFR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SO
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE GALE FROM 7PM TO 7AM. VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE COVERED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS...BUT
AN UPGRADE TO STORM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES...BUT INCREASE FROM THE NW LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALES EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED
TO A SCA BY MIDDAY THU AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE
WIND SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/CB
MARINE...FOISY/MCW/CB


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