Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 250654
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
254 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through the weekend and
then move east Monday. A weak trough of low pressure north of the
region will dissipate this evening. A cold front will approach the
region Tuesday and move across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A high height 500H trough across New England will lift out and be
replaced by an upper level ridge over the next 24 hours. At the
surface, a ridge across the region will slowly move offshore. A
weak surface trough just north of the State that will dissipate by
this evening. The weak surface trough may provide the focus for
an afternoon or early evening shower or thunderstorm across far
northern Maine, mainly in the Saint John Valley, but perhaps as
far south as the Caribou/Presque Isle areas, and across the
central Highlands. To the south, expect a sunny day. Temperatures
this afternoon will be warmer than yesterday by 5 to 10 degrees
for inland areas which will top out in the low to mid 80s, but it
will be cooler along and near the coast where a sea breeze
develops by around midday. Any clouds and isolated showers in the
far north early in the evening will give way to a clear to
p/cloudy sky tonight. It will be clear across the Downeast
region.  Temperatures will not be as cool as recent nights with
lows mostly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region on Sunday, leading to
a dry and very warm day. 925mb temps of 20-22C point to highs in
the mid 80s across much of the region. Areas closer to the coast
will be cooler given south flow, generally in the upper 70s to
lower 80s inland, and in the 60s to around 70 along the immediate
coast. Sunday night will be on the muggy side with lows ranging
from the mid 50s to around 60. A decaying frontal boundary will
cross the state from northwest to southeast on Monday. There will
be some elevated instability, but increasing south flow ahead of
the boundary will cause maritime air to progress inland. This
maritime air combined with increasing cloud cover will limit
surface instability, as well as keep temperatures several degrees
cooler than Sunday`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather will be the rule for much of next week. A slow
moving frontal system will gradually slide southward out of Canada
Tuesday and Wednesday. The long range guidance is having a hard
time agreeing on exactly when and where the boundaries will lie
during any one period, so have stayed close to the Superblend
guidance for PoPs. A steady stream of moisture ahead of the
frontal system will result in rounds of showers and possible
thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday, and perhaps even into
Thursday (according to the ECMWF). With PWATs 1.5 inches or more,
heavy rain will be possible in any stronger activity. The moisture
will also make for a humid couple of days; while daytime temps
will be close to normal, overnight lows will be uncomfortable for
many as dewpoints will hover around 60F. The GFS finally brings a
cold front through late Wednesday, ushering in cooler and drier
air. High pressure builds in post-front, resulting in fair weather
Thursday and Friday, perhaps some afternoon pop-up showers Friday
afternoon. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is slower with the front, keeping
precipitation around right through Thursday. Have gone with slight
chance/low chance PoPs each of these days to account for the model
differences.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of
brief MVFR conditions near any showers or thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening, mainly at KFVE, but perhaps as far
south as KPQI.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday
night, though KFVE, KCAR, and KPQI could see localized IFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. MVFR
conditions will become more likely Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold
front/upper trough bring widespread showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through tonight.

SHORT TERM:No headlines are anticipated through early next week. High
pressure will lie across the waters Sunday through Monday morning,
but an approaching frontal boundary will lead to increasing south
winds and building seas Monday afternoon. However, seas and winds
are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through
Monday night. Seas may approach 5 feet by Tuesday morning, so this
will need to be monitored.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...CB/Hastings
Marine...CB/Hastings



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