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000
FXUS61 KCAR 241047
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
647 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will enter the region this afternoon and stall
over the region tonight. The front will then lift back north
in the form of a warm front Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645am update...No changes.

Previous discussion...
A powerful upper level dome of high pressure centered over the
Great Lakes region is the primary weather maker today and
tonight. The strong subsidence with this high will bring another
day of record highs with H850 temperatures a bit higher than
yesterday. Humidity will continue to creep upward with dew point
readings creeping towards the mid to upper 60s...levels seldom
seen last summer. The cold front will enter northern Aroostook
County this afternoon and likely stall out in a line from
northern Washington County northwestward towards northern
Somerset County this evening. There won`t be any significantly
cooler air behind the front nor any organized precipitation.
Will go with isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms if any
storms can overcome the CIN. Since the front is crossing in the
middle of a strong upper ridge, there`s not a lot of cooling
aloft, mid- level lapse rates are unimpressive and there`s not a
lot of moisture. The best bet for convection may actually be
for an elevated storm after sunset on Sunday as the front
stalls. With the front stalling, Sunday night looks warm and
sticky with lows in the lower 60s with the exception of the
coast and Saint John Valley where mid to upper 50s are forecast.
The humid air mass will probably support some shallow fog south
of the stalled front by later Sunday night.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure tracking north of Maine will draw a warm front
north of the region Monday. Across northern areas expect a
mostly cloudy morning, then a partly sunny afternoon with a
slight chance of showers or possibly a thunderstorm. Across
Downeast areas, expect partly sunny skies with also the slight
chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. The front will
remain just north of Maine Monday night, with high pressure
across the region. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across
the region Monday night. The front should sink back south across
the region Tuesday, though uncertainty still exists regarding
exactly how far south. Generally expect partly sunny skies
across the region Tuesday, along with the slight chance of an
afternoon shower or thunderstorms across mostly northern areas.
The front will stall and should begin to lift back north in the
form of a warm front Tuesday night. Cloud cover will increase
Tuesday night along with the chance of showers, with the better
chances across northern areas. Temperatures will be at much
above normal levels Monday/Tuesday. However, temperatures
Tuesday will be dependent on the timing and location of the
front moving south across the region.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The warm front will lift across the region early Wednesday, with
a cold front crossing Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday, with showers persisting in advance of the cold front
Wednesday night. The front will exit across the maritimes early
Thursday. Mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers are
expected early Thursday, with improving conditions during the
afternoon in the wake of the front. High pressure builds across
the region Friday with generally partly cloudy skies north and
partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast. An upper level trof
should cross the region Friday night into Saturday. Generally
expect partly cloudy skies across northern areas Friday night
through Saturday, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies
Downeast. Could also have a slight chance of showers across the
north and mountains Friday night into Saturday. Cold temperatures
aloft with the upper trof could allow snow to mix with the rain
showers at times across the highest elevations Friday night
into Saturday. Temperatures will be at above normal levels
Wednesday/Thursday, with near normal level temperatures
Friday/Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Predominately VFR conditions are forecast. There is
a chance of shallow fog at BHB this morning and possibly again
late Sunday night towards BHB and BGR. There is a slight chance
of MVFR cigs north of HUL late Sunday night. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible over the area late this afternoon
into the evening.

SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across
northern areas Monday, with generally VFR conditions across the
remainder of the region. Generally VFR conditions are expected
across the region Tuesday. However, an isolated shower or
thunderstorm is possible across mostly northern areas both
Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Variable conditions could also
occur with any patchy fog across the region both Monday and
Tuesday nights. VFR/MVFR conditions are expected Wednesday with
a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, with MVFR to
LIFR conditions Wednesday night. MVFR conditions are possible
early Thursday, then improving during the afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Light winds and long period south swell are expected
through the period. Areas of fog...or at least hazy
conditions...are expected today. Fog will tend to become more
widespread late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level seas are expected across
the waters Monday through Tuesday night. Visibilities will be
reduced at times in fog Monday through Tuesday night. Could also
have a slight chance of showers Tuesday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...MCW/Norcross
Marine...MCW/Norcross