Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 011625
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UDPATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS ZONES
1...3 THROUGH 5...10...AND 31. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
SEEN AS WELL ACROSS SW ZONE 5. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS





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