Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 162335
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
735 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE: COLD AND DRY HIGH PRES CNTRD OVR THE ERN GRT LAKES ATTM
WILL BUILD E OVR THE STATE THRU TNGT AND CREST THE AREA THU AM
BEFORE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN. VRY COLD AND DRY AIR
WILL SETTLE IN TNGT AND THIS SHOULD HELP SLOW DOWN SNOW MELT AND
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY RELAX SOME OF THE HYDRO CONCERNS. STILL
NUMEROUS RPTS OF SOME ROADS CLOSED BUT THIS NUMBER HAS
BEEN DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY W/ THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AND
DRIER AIR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT AND WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE
AREAL FLOOD WRNGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TIL LATE EVE.  FOR NOW...NO CHANGES WARRANTED...

PREV DISC: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD INTO MAINE
TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH MOST AREAS TO DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY AND COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL MAKE FOR A
MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S
DOWNEAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE NW
VALLEYS. THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY AND THE THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE. THERE
MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A M/SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE NW ATLANTIC WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH FRI NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER IN THE NIGHT
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
30S FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREAS
SUNDAY WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW
50S...ALTHOUGH SOME MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AGAIN. A SW FLOW WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN QUEBEC WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY WITH
COOLER AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY.  A GUSTY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH SAT...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS SAT. MOSTLY VFR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CHANGED THE SCA TO AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS AS SEAS
RUNNING ABV FCST VALS FOR THIS TIME AND WILL RUN THE SCA TIL MID
AM THU...

PREV DISC:  THE WIND WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THE SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WAS
TRANSITIONED TO A SCA. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE MOSTLY BELOW SCA
LEVELS INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS HELPED SLOW SNOW
MELT AND RUNOFF... IN ADDITION...OUTSIDE OF THE HEADWATERS OF THE
AROOSTOOK WHERE AND ICE JAM IS STILL RPTD IN THE OXBOW-MASARDIS
AREA...THE AROOSTOOK HAS FLUSHED OUT SO THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EASED. HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS ARE
VERY HIGH AND NUMEROUS ROADS REMAINED WATER COVERED AND CLOSED -
THO THIS NUMBER HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ICE
JAM FLOODING ALSO STILL REMAINS A CONCERN ON THE ST JOHN...
CURRENT AREAL FLOOD WRNGS ARE SET TO EXPIRE LATE THIS EVE AND WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE THE NEED TO EXTEND OR ALLOW THESE THESE WRNGS TO EXPIRE...

PREV DISC:  RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. RIVER GAGES THAT ARE EITHER CURRENTLY IN FLOOD OR
FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD INCLUDE:

AROOSTOOK RIVER AT MASARDIS
PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER-FOXCROFT
PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT MEDFORD
MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER AT MATTAWAMKEAG
PENOBSCOT RIVER AT WEST ENFIELD
PENOBSCOT RIVER AT EDDINGTON

THE SAINT JOHN CONTINUES TO BE ICE AFFECTED, ESPECIALLY FROM
ALLAGASH DOWN TO FORT KENT. THERE IS ALSO LIKELY SOLID ICE STILL IN
PLACE FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. THE AROOSTOOK IS MAINLY ICE FREE
THOUGH THE MASARDIS RIVER GAGE REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE DUE TO AN
ICE JAM. THE ICE IS CURRENTLY FLUSHING OUT OF THE PISCATAQUIS AND
PENOBSCOT RIVERS, WITH AN ICE JAM IN PLACE ON THE EAST BRANCH OF THE
PENOBSCOT RIVER JUST UPSTREAM OF MEDWAY. THERE IS ALSO STILL A LOT
OF ICE COVER ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER. PERSONS ALONG AREA WATERWAYS
WILL NEED TO STAY ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS UNTIL THE
ICE IS COMPLETELY FLUSHED OUT.

IN SPITE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
RESIDUAL RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND YESTERDAY`S RAIN. THIS RUNOFF
CONTINUES TO AFFECT ROADS AND CULVERTS WITH MANY ROADS STILL CLOSED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT MANY RIVERS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH PEAK STAGE UNTIL SOMETIME TOMORROW AND THERE IS
STILL ICE ON SOME RIVERS,  WE HAVE EXTENDED THE AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
AND THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MANY RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/CB
HYDROLOGY...KHW/MBH







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