Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 220901
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
401 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon and evening as
an area of low pressure passes to the east of the area tonight.
High pressure will cross the region Thursday. A cold front will
cross the area Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper trough across the Great Lakes early this morning will push
east into western New England late this afternoon, and will
sweep off into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Low pressure off
the SC coast early this morning races northeast and deepens
today and will be near Halifax late this evening, and into the
northern Gulf of Saint Lawrence by 12Z Thursday. A cold front
will push into western Maine early this afternoon, and will
sweep across the remainder of the CWA this evening. A moderately
colder air mass will spread back into the region tonight.

Rain associated with the the low to our south will overspread the
Downeast Region by late morning to midday with the heaviest rain
across Washington County where rainfall totals of around 1.5"
are expected. A few showers of rain or snow are possible this
morning in northwest Maine ahead of the cold front. Rain with
the southern low will work north across most of the CWA this
afternoon. Much lighter QPF is expected across northern and
western portions of the CWA on the order of around a quarter of
an inch north of the Katahdin Region. Colder air sweeps in as
the precipitation ends this evening, and will likely produce a
short period of mixed rain and snow followed by a period of snow
for a couple of hours across northern areas. a quick in or so
of snow many accumulate, and as temps fall it could turn icy
later in the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thxgvg day will be fair and seasonably cold with a brisk NW
wind. Late in the day, clds will increase from the W ahead of a
clipper s/wv movg ESE from Cntrl Can. Thu ngt into Fri morn will
then be msly cldy with lmtd chcs of sn shwrs across the NW as
the s/wv crosses the Rgn. Following the passage of this system,
slightly colder modified arctic air will move into the Rgn Fri
with below avg hi temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another s/wv complex from Cntrl Can will bring increasing cldnss
to the Rgn Fri ngt with a chc of rn/sn shwrs on Sat as temps
moderate. Blended long range models show higher PoPs just to our
E later Sat into Sat ngt as a s/wv from the SE states swings NE
toward the Ern Maritimes. Will have to watch whether any s/wv
energy from Cntrl Can merges with this system ovr the next day
or two, but for now the majority of the guidance including the
latest 00z ECMWF keeps these systems separate. Colder air with
the passage of the upper trof axis will mean more in the way of
sn shwrs for Sun with ptly to msly cldy skies and seasonably
cold conditions for erly next week with msly ocnl Nrn sn
shwrs/flurries.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR and LIFR today from
south to north as rain overspreads the region. The rain may end
as a period of wet snow at the northern terminals this evening.
Conditions will improve to VFR tonight at the Downeast
terminals and to MVFR at the northern terminals late in the
evening and to VFR overnight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly MVFR clgs with bkn-ovc SC for Nrn
TAF sites and VFR conditions Downeast sites with brief MVFR
vsbys in rn/sn shwrs mainly across the N Fri and again Sat and
Sat ngt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect for the
coastal waters through tonight. There will be a bit of a lull in
the wind today and the seas will subside, but the wind will
increase again tonight. On the intra-coastal waters a small
craft advisory was issued for tonight as the wind will increase
as low pressure begins to pull away from the waters.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and wvs will be at or below marginal
SCA conditions across our waters. Kept close to a WW3/NWPS
model blend for fcst wv hts throughout these ptns of the fcst.

&&

.CLIMATE...
...Arctic Air Mass Potential...

Latest long range models indicate the N. Amer. Arctic
transition index (NAT - a non-teleconnection arctic variability
index formed by combining EP- NP and TNH teleconnection
indices) will slowly moderate from values just abv zero to
negative values just below zero ovr the next week. This
potentially will reduce the magnitude of arctic air masses
breaking loose from a deep arctic air mass over NW N.Amer that
have been sliding ESE thru Cntrl Can grazing Nrn Nrn New Eng.
Even ovr NW N. Amer., max arctic air mass indices will moderate
from the mid 60s to mid 40s by next Wed as deep arctic air
moderates and contracts ENE toward the Can Inuit territory.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...CB/VJN
Marine...CB/VJN
Climate...VJN


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