Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 011338
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
938 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0930 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE WHICH IS RISING A
LITTLER SLOWER THAN FORECAST DUE TO COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. WILL
ALSO ADJUST DEW POINT AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ARE THE MAJOR
WEATHER FEATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY MID DAY THE LOW
WILL BE WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WRN
MAINE. THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/AND POP. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND 35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED HPC QPF GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW AND THEN A WARM UP HEADED OUR WAY, BUT SHORT LIVED.

A WARM OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS MIDDAY THURSDAY AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE
REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE REGION W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE
COAST AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST W/MID-UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. AT THE ONSET,
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE HOLD W/TEMPS FALLING BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. THE BEST FORCING AND CONVERGENCE
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS W/THE
OCCLUSION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BUT AS LATE AFTERNOON ACPHS, THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO STICK
W/TEMPS COOLING OFF AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO EVENT HEAVY
SNOWFALL FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/A 40 KT
LLVL JET. ATTM, DECIDED TO GO AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW W/UP TO
2 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AROOSTOOK AND PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN RISING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT W/WARM LAYER SHOWING UP ON THE SOUNDINGS FROM 900-800MBS
INDICATING SNOW GOING TO A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE BLYR IS FORECAST TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING(32F) W/RAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST SHOT FOR
ANY LIGHT ICING(<0.10 OF AN INCH) WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A MILD DAY AS THE REGION GETS UNDER A WSW FLOW AND
WARMER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. DECISION WAS TO RAISE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
W/READINGS AOA 50F JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONSIDERABLE MELTING OF THE SNOW AND ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT COULD BE AN INTERESTING WEEKEND.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT W/COLD AIR FOR APRIL SET TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION. THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE COAST AND STALL AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP ALONG THIS FRONT FROM THE MID ATLC
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING A GOOD DOSE OF PRECIP TO THE
REGION AND DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU PREFER, IT COULD BE SNOW
OR SNOW AND RAIN W/WIND.

THERE STILL EXISTS DISCREPANCIES IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE THE ARCTIC
FRONT OFF THE COAST W/LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR A COLDER
SCENARIO W/SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
00Z ECMWF AND SOME ITS ENSEMBLES POINT TO A TRACK CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO INTERIOR
DOWNEAST(BANGOR) AND POSSIBLE UP INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS. THIS
WOULD MEAN RAIN AND THEN AS THE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF
FUNDY, COLDER AIR POURS IN ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS, IT COULD BE ALL SNOW. THE
00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION
W/SNOW. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW AND WINDS TO PICK UP LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY.
ATTM, DECIDED TO CONTINUE W/A CONSENSUS APCH AND LEAN W/SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/SNOW-RAIN FOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LEAN W/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK ATTM. THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH HOWEVER TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES TO 80%. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
HIGH THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO EARLY EASTER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A
FAST MOVER W/ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOW PULLING AWAY FROM
THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY W/HIGH PRES RIDGING IN FROM THE S. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SNOW AS LOW PRES IS
SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AND THEN
DETERIORATING TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WX ELEMENT WILL BE SNOW AT THE START GOING TO
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN CLEARING W/CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN VFR.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK AGAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
RIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT W/MVFR DOWN TO IFR AND LIFR. THE WX
ELEMENTS WILL BE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AND WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNW DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS BY LATE IN THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 40+ KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WAVES WILL BUILD AS
WELL APCHG HEIGHTS OF 10-13 FT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE A FAST MOVER AND IS EXPECTED TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE
MARITIMES ON EASTER SUNDAY W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE


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