Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 231400
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
900 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Maine early this morning will move east of
Nova Scotia this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure will
pass north of the region tonight. High pressure will build back
into the region Saturday and Saturday night. Low pressure will
track across the Gulf of Maine Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update 9:00 AM: Have adjusted temperature and dew point. No
other changes.

Previous discussion...
Strong high pressure will crest over Maine early this morning and
will move into the open Atlantic east of Nova Scotia this afternoon.
A weak area of low pressure will move into the western Great Lakes
this morning and race quickly off to the northeast into Western
Quebec this evening.  The low will pass near the Gaspe Bay Peninsula
tonight before exiting into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence by 12Z
Saturday morning.  Overrunning snow will develop from west to east
across the CWA this evening.  The models differ on the amount of QPF
with most of the models advertising 0.1-0.2" of liquid
precipitation.  There are some models such as the NAM that have
disjointed areas of QPF with some locations only picking up a few
hundredths of an inch.  In any case, it looks like a light event
with most areas to pick up 1-2" of snow tonight, and if there are a
few pockets of slightly heavier QPF a few spots could pick up 2-3",
mainly north of the Katahdin Region.  As warmer air moves into the
region the snow may change to a little light rain before ending
Downeast with a brief period sleet or freezing rain possible from
the central highlands east into southeast Aroostook County.
 High temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper
20s in the Saint John Valley to the mid to upper 30s along the
coast.  Temperatures tonight will not drop much with lows in the mid
to upper 20s far north to the low 30s in the Bangor Region.  No
advisories are anticipated with this event, but will need to keep an
eye on any possible freezing rain across mainly the central portion
of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After a mainly cloudy start to the day, Saturday will feature
decreasing clouds as high pressure builds east through Quebec
province. High temperatures Saturday afternoon will rise into
the upper 30s to near 40 degrees north and low to mid 40s
downeast. Saturday night will be fair and quite cold as there
will be the opportunity for radiational cooling across the far
north, as increasing high clouds will hold off till around
daybreak. Sunday will feature increasing and thickening clouds
in advance of an approaching occluded front from the west. Snow
will begin to overspread western areas by midday Sunday and then
expand east across the remainder of the area by late afternoon
Sunday. Precipitation may transition to a wintry mix across down
east by later Sunday afternoon and even all rain along the
coast. At time, looks like we may need winter weather
advisories for later Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Precipitation will diminish across the area Sunday night as the
occlusion pushes east. Monday and Tuesday feature mainly dry
weather but a couple of weak short waves could bring isolated
rain/snow showers to the north. Mainly fair and unseasonably
weather conditions expected through mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR today with conditions to lower to IFR tonight in
snow with a rain/snow mix likely at KBHB and possibly at KBGR.

SHORT TERM: High pressure will build across the area Saturday.
Low pressure will cross the region later Sunday Sunday night.
Higher pressure builds back in Monday and Tuesday.

.Outlook for Saturday through Tuesday...
.Sat...VFR.
.Sun...IFR in snow, possible mixed precip KBGR/KBHB.
.Mon...VFR.
.Tue...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: As high pressure moves east of the waters this afternoon
the wind will veer into the south and begin to increase.  Small
craft advisory conditions are expected to develop this evening, first
due to wind, and then a combo of wind and seas as the seas
gradually build. Will issue a sca starting at 00z this evening.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory levels conditions possible Saturday
through Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone


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