714
FXUS61 KCAR 130534
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
134 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to move away to the east today. A weak
frontal boundary will approach tonight and cross the area Monday.
High pressure will build across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A
cold front will approach on Thursday and cross the area Thursday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A low level southerly flow behind high pressure moving off to the
east has advected lots of moisture north across our area. This has
resulted in low clouds spreading well inland from the coast bringing
a low overcast across the area early this morning. The sky will
begin cloudy this morning. Sunshine will mix out some of the low
overcast by late morning and midday giving way to a partly cloudy
sky well inland during the midday and afternoon. Some showers and
thunderstorms may begin to stray into far western areas ahead of an
occluded front late this afternoon.

A southerly flow will continue tonight carrying low clouds and some
fog north again. Meanwhile, a large low pressure system centered
over Hudson Bay will continue to pull an occluded front toward the
area tonight bringing a continued chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to western and far northern areas overnight. Low
clouds and fog can be expected further east and south.

The occluded front will continue to press into the area on Monday
bring a band of showers and embedded thunder with it. Most of the
convection is expected over western and and northern areas where
most of the instability will be. Showers and thunderstorms will push
east during the day but will likely weaken a bit. A shallow layer of
cooler marine air will remain on the surface over southern and
eastern areas suppressing surface based instability. Convective
showers pushing east and south will depend on elevated
convection. The convection will likely become completely
suppressed by the time it reaches Downeast resulting in little
or no rain Downeast.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned front will weaken as it moves out of the area
Monday night. This will end the thunder threat, and showers will
mostly dissipate by midnight. Low temperatures Monday night will
generally be in the lower to mid 60s. Ridging builds in for
Tuesday, resulting in mostly sunny skies. Humidity values will
drop somewhat, but 850mb temperatures will still be 14-17C. This
supports highs well into the 80s outside of the immediate
coast. Warmer spots south of Katahdin could see highs reach 90
degrees. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
drop off Tuesday night. Expect lows in the 50s to near 60
degrees north of Katahdin, and lower to mid 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A hot day is on tap for most areas away from the immediate
coast Wednesday. This is due to high pressure overhead and 850mb
temperatures of 16-18C. Interior locations south of Katahdin are
expected to see highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Expect mid
80s north of Katahdin, and lower 80s for Coastal Downeast
(cooler at the immediate coast). An isolated shower or
thunderstorm is possible late in the day in the Crown of Maine
with an approaching cold front. Wednesday night will be a mild
night, with lows remaining well into the 60s for most places.

The front will begin to cross the area from northwest to
southeast on Thursday. This will increase the threat of showers
and thunderstorms, especially from Katahdin north and west.
Shower threat continues Thursday night. More showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday as the front slowly works its way
through. At this time, drier weather looks to return next
weekend behind the front. Temperatures and dew points return to
more seasonable values by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
IFR to LIFR conditions in low clouds and some fog early this
morning will improve to VFR north and MVFR south around midday.
Conditions will once again lower to IFR from south to north in
lowing clouds tonight. Low clouds will keep conditions IFR most
of the day Downeast on Monday with an improvement to MVFR then
VFR over the north except in any thundershowers during the
afternoon. Winds light southerly today through Monday.


SHORT TERM:
Monday Night...Variable conditions with any SHRA or TS, also
with any low clouds or BCFG. Otherwise, mainly VFR. SW-W winds 5
to 10 knots.

Tuesday & Tuesday Night...Mainly VFR. W-SW winds 5-10 kts
Tuesday. Winds light and variable Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible late PM at
northern terminals with VCSH and isolated TS. SW winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday Night...Mainly MVFR/IFR north with VCSH. VFR early BGR
& Downeast, then IFR or lower possible late with BCFG. S winds
5-10 kts.

Thursday...Mainly MVFR/IFR north with -SHRA and scattered TS.
IFR/LIFR possible early BGR and Downeast with BCFG, becoming
VFR/MVFR with VCSH and isolated TS in the PM. S winds 5-10 kts,
gusting 15-20 kts in the PM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will be light southerly today through Monday and seas
around 2 to 3 ft. Fog and mist will limit visibilities through
Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria from Monday night through late week. Wave
heights will mainly be 2 to 4 feet on the outer waters, and 1 to
2 feet on the intra coastal waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Bloomer/Clark
Marine...Bloomer/Clark