Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 291940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT W/WINDS 10-15 KTS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT W/THE
EXPECTATION OF SEAS DROPPING BELOW 6 FT AS THE WINDS DROP OFF. FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS
DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS
FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY









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