Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 250156
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
956 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region tonight then move east
Monday. A warm front will lift across the area Monday night
followed by a cold front on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
930 PM Update...
High pressure will bring fairly calm winds to the area tonight,
and lows are expected to range from the mid-50s to around 60.
IR sat shows that high cirrus and cirrostratus has moved in a bit
faster than previously expected, so partly cloudy skies were
introduced to central and northern areas, though Downeast was kept
mostly clear. Fcst low temps were also bumped up a degree or two
in some spots in response. Otherwise, no changes were made to
POPs, and only minor tweaks to lower winds a bit in the valleys
overnight as the sfc high slides across the state. Winds and seas
offshore looked good.

Previous Discussion...
An approaching trough of low pressure will bring increasing
clouds on Monday. Some showers may stray into western areas late
in the day as a warm front approaches. Atmospheric sounding
forecasts show generally stable air at the low levels on Monday so
the chances for thunderstorms will likely be low. The best chance
for a thunderstorm late Monday will be in far western areas where
warm air west of the mountains is lifting over the terrain and the
more stable air mass over our region. Will have scattered
thunderstorms in far western areas late in the day with isolated
thunderstorms elsewhere along with the scattered to numerous
showers moving eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fairly unsettled pattern through midweek with temperatures a little
above average.

Showers likely Monday night most areas with perhaps a few embedded
storms. Moist airmass could lead to some locally heavy rain, but
it won`t rain everywhere. Models still having some timing issues
with the system Monday night plus or minus about six hours.

For Tuesday, moist airmass remains and with a bit of cooling aloft
and an upper level shortwave trough passing through, could see
some storms with small hail. However, shortwave timing is a bit
faster than ideal, as trough axis is to the New Brunswick border
by early afternoon. So don`t think our storm coverage and strength
Tuesday will be as much as it could be if the shortwave was moving
a bit slower.

Slight drier airmass moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday, but
with fairly unstable westerly flow Wednesday, still not convinced
Wednesday will be dry. Put in a chance of storms for the north,
closer to the upper level low to our NW in Quebec.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lower than average confidence in the forecast Wednesday night and
beyond. Not looking for anything exceptionally hot or cool, or
anything exceptionally wet or dry. But precipitation chances day
to day are quite uncertain from Wednesday night through the
weekend.

Generally, looking for a slow moving weak cold front to work its way
southeast through the area Wednesday night through Friday. But the
front`s progress is very much in question. It could clear the
coast Thursday with drying, or hang on until Friday night with
storm chances persisting.

Tentatively expect Saturday to early Sunday to be dry with near
average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region
tonight through early Monday. Occasional MVFR conditions could
begin to develop Monday afternoon with any showers or
thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM: Widespread IFR expected Monday night Downeast in
precip and/or low clouds, with MVFR likely further inland.
Becoming mostly VFR for Tuesday through Thursday, although a
chance of storms will exist and any storms could of course lower
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels tonight through Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds generally 15 knots or less and seas generally 3
feet or less through Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/Kredensor
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Bloomer/Kredensor/Foisy
Marine...Bloomer/Kredensor/Foisy


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