Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 222208
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
608 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold arctic air will continue to be brought in on north winds
tonight. High pressure builds across the region later Thursday
with another cold front moving through Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6:08 PM Update...Low pressure over Nova Scotia early this
evening will pull away to the east tonight. Strong high pressure
across the central Great Lakes will build into Pennsylvania
tonight. A strong and gusty wind will persist tonight, although
it may slacken just a bit overnight. Dropped the winter weather
advisories with this update for the western zones, and will
consider a wind chill advisory later this evening for the
northern zones, but will wait to clear the remaining winter
weather advisories across the eastern zones. Although most of
the falling snow has ended, with the exception of Washington
County, the strong wind will produce blowing and drifting snow
and locally poor visibility in open areas this evening. Only
minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based on the latest
observations, and the radar and near term model trends.

Previous discussion...
1002mb sfc low sitting ovr the Bay of Fundy as of 19z with arctic
front well south of the waters. Cold air and strong winds continue
to pour into CWA this aftn with numerous reports of whiteout conds,
tho minimal snow accumulation as expected. Wl retain winter weather
advisory into this afternoon/evng and emphasize blowing snow and
whiteouts in open areas.

Skies wl clr tonight and with caa occurring wl see nrn zones drop to
nr zero for mins.  Only caveat to dropping further wl be well-mixed
blyr as nw winds rmn gusty btwn 20-30kts thru mrng. This wl result
in wind chill values dropping to nr -20F across nw Aroostook and may
need to issue wind chill advisory after existing headlines expire.
Will highlight wind chill temps in winter wx advisory as a heads-up
for the North Woods.

Expect a fairly sunny day tomorrow but nw winds wl rmn gusty as
pressure gradient rmns tight until aftn with ridge axis building in
twd the end of the near term pd. Maxes wl rmn much blo normal on
Thur as arctic air filters in on nrly flow, tho H9 temps wl warm a
few degrees ovr tda.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will drift across New England Thursday night and
to the east of the region on Friday. Low pressure will move
eastward well to our north, dragging its attendant cold front
across the Northeast CONUS in its wake. MOisture lifting
northward out ahead of the front will bring a quick shot of
precipitation to the region Friday afternoon and evening.
Northern and central areas will remain cold enough for mostly
snow, while Downeast should go over to a rain/snow mix or just
plain rain by late afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation will
fall during the late afternoon and evening hours, then the
front will move through around midnight, quickly shunting the
precipitation to the east. Any rain will change back over to
snow before the precipitation comes to an end. Noted that some
of the model guidance is hinting at some light freezing rain
mixing in across portions of the Central Highlands and interior
Downeast. Current indications are that if this were to occur, it
would be very brief and happen as precipitation is coming to an
end, so have opted to leave out of the forecast at this time.
Snow amounts will be minimal with most locations seeing an inch
or less. Saturday will be dry under decreasing clouds. In spite
of the frontal passage, Saturday`s temperatures will be at or
above Friday`s highs owing to increasing sun and downsloping
winds. Highs will range from the lower 30s north to the mid 40s
Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A large high pressure system building down from Canada will
bring a cold, clear and starlit night Saturday night. Sunday
will begin sunny before moisture ahead of a large storm system
begins lifting into the area. Clouds may increase in the
Downeast region by late Sunday while the north remains mostly
sunny. Our attention then turns to a couple storm systems early
next week pushing out ahead of a large trough approaching from
the Midwest. The first low trekking across the area on Monday
will bring a chance of some snow with the best chance Downeast
where the snow may mix with some rain. A break is possible
Monday night before another large storm approaches late Tuesday
into Wednesday. If the GFS is right, the mid-week storm may
involve a northern branch shortwave phasing in with a southern
branch shortwave to develop a potentially strong coastal low by
Wednesday morning. The ECMWF currently has the mid-week storm
developing a bit later, to our southeast, which would favor
lighter snow but still a potentially windy day as the storm
winds up and tracks south of the Maritimes.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Brief MVFR and localized IFR expected early this eve
in BLSN. VFR expected after 00z tonight and thru the end of TAF
valid time. NW winds continue 20G30kts through Thur morning.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Friday.
Then ceilings will lower to MVFR and eventually IFR by 21z as
rain and snow spread across the region. IFR conditions are
expected 21z Friday through 06z Saturday, then precipitation
will come to an end after a cold frontal passage. Clouds will
lift to VFR by 12-15z Saturday, with skies clearing by late
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale force winds expected into the morning hours in
the wake of an arctic front that crossed the waters this
afternoon. Expect SCA conditions through the day tomorrow.
Moderate freezing spray expected through late Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM: Northwest winds will be gusting 25-30 kt early
Thursday night but they will subside overnight as high pressure
builds across the waters. However, winds and seas will both
increase during the day Friday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Small Craft conditions are expected by early Friday
afternoon, and these will persist through much of Friday night.
Winds will decrease early Saturday morning with the return of
high pressure, but seas will hang above 5 ft through the day
Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ002-005-006-011-017-032.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ015-016-029>031.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ050>052.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Farrar
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...CB/Farrar/Hastings
Marine...CB/Farrar/Hastings


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