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000
FXUS61 KCAR 300925
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
525 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will slowly move east
today while a weakening occluded front approaches from the west
tonight. A cold front will cross the region on Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
530am update...Increased highs today slightly with less cloud
cover for eastern zones. Sharpened sea breeze timing in
temperature forecast. Also removed mention of isolated
thunderstorms tonight and increased coverage of fog later
tonight.

Previous discussion...
The high over the Canadian Maritimes is strengthening today and
will serve to slow and weaken an occluded front moving out of
the eastern Great Lakes region. With the dominance of this high,
have reduced cloud cover today and increased highs into the mid
to upper 60s this afternoon. An onshore flow will mean lower
temperatures along the coast with highs occurring by early
afternoon. The sea breeze will reach as far northward as Bangor
later this afternoon. What`s left of the occlusion will enter
the area tonight with shower activity and the threat of an
isolated thunderstorm due to a modest amount of elevated
instability. The combination of shower activity and a moist
south to southeasterly flow will restore widespread low
cloudiness overnight under an inversion. This will produce lows
in the upper 40s for most locations except the Down East region
where mid 40s are forecast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cool, cloudy day Wednesday with moist onshore flow and marine
air for most of the area, along with a chance of showers. Out in
the North Woods there is a chance of afternoon storms due to an
approaching system from the west and the typical less marine
influence that the North Woods receives. Any storms should die
off after sunset.

Wednesday night will feature abundant low clouds and some fog
with a strong marine influence for the whole forecast area.

Cold front crosses the area during the day Thursday. With decent
upper level support ahead of a potent upper level low just to
our northwest, potential for some stronger storms exist. The
timing of the front is a bit uncertain, but believe at this
time that the best shot at storms late Thursday is interior
Downeast.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have to keep an eye out on Friday for storms due to the
continued proximity of a fairly potent upper level low. Forecast
confidence plummets beyond Friday due to run to run and model to
model inconsistencies. Went with blend of models which gives
chance of showers pretty much every day and temperatures close
to average.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected for the most part today.
FVE has IFR cigs which will dissipate early this morning.
Otherwise, brief periods of MVFR cigs are possible at terminals
such as FVE, CAR and BGR this morning. Tonight, IFR cigs will
move ashore to BHB and BGR in the evening and most terminals
will have IFR cigs later in the night with showers and isolated
embedded thunderstorms after midnight.

SHORT TERM: Areas of IFR to start the day Wednesday from low
clouds and some fog due to marine layer. Don`t expect much
improving during the day Wednesday...perhaps some areas will
improve to MVFR. Nearly everywhere goes down to IFR or lower
ceilings Wednesday night with the strong marine layer.
Improvement to VFR likely most areas Thursday afternoon with the
passage of a cold front. Mostly VFR Thursday night into Saturday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Patchy fog is possible early this morning and will
likely return later tonight and could be widespread by late
tonight. Otherwise, winds will increase tonight with some gusts
over 15 kts and seas building towards 3 to 4 feet.

SHORT TERM: Conditions generally below small craft through
Saturday, although winds and seas may get close to small craft
levels Thursday and Friday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...MCW/Foisy
Marine...MCW/Foisy