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000
FXUS61 KCAR 192342
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
742 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS TO BACK UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN
USING A BLEND OF THE SREF AND NAM DOWNSCALED POPS. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ARE MOVING THE REGION PER THE LATEST SATL
IMAGERY. STRATUS STARTING TO ADVECT ITS WAY ON THE SOUTHERN MAINE COAST.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR POPS AND
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12...CEMREG...SREF...GFS40 AND ECMWF.
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS. FOR WIND HAVE
USED GMOS FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED AND 150 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED FOR GUSTS. TEMPERATURE GRIDS INITIALIZED WITH BLEND OF
THE NAM12 AND GMOS THEN HAVE REDUCE RANGE OF MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASING HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST
GFS AND NAM NOW SHOW A WETTER SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A DRY SOLUTION WITH A
WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE. TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRIER SOLUTION BUT WILL
REINTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 60S. THE LATEST
TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR A WET SOLUTION FOR LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER IMPULSE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. MODELS DISAGREE ON DETAILS SO UTILIZED A
MODEL BLEND FOR QPF. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE AT
LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE THE LONG TERM AS MSLY AN
UNSETTLED PD. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY BISECT OUR FA
WED NGT THRU THU EVE...BEFORE BECOMING A COLD FRONT AND CROSSING
THE FA LATE THU NGT INTO FRI. WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP OVR OUR FA
IS A QUESTION NOT IN AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS
AND CANGEM FURTHER S OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA AND THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY BRING THE FRONT SLOWLY NWRD AS A
WARM FRONT INTO NRN ME BY ERLY THU EVE. OBVIOUSLY...THE ACTUAL PSN
OF THIS FRONT BY THU WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON HI TEMPS THU AFTN
AND WHETHER WE INTRODUCE MORE IN THE CNVCTV RNFL LATE THU THRU THU
NGT. WITH THESE FACTORS UNSETTLED ATTM...BEST FOR NOW TO INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELY FOR RN WED NGT AND SHWRS THU...AND KEEP CLOSE TO
ENS GFS/ECMWF MEAN HI TEMPS THIS PD...UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO A
MORE AGREED UPON SOLUTION. SIG RNFL IS POSSIBLE FOR PTNS OF THE
FA WITH SUCCESSIVE ROUNDS OF RN/SHWRS...BUT TO ERLY TO SAY WHERE
AND EXACTLY WHEN ATTM.

OTHERWISE...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVG SE OF THE FA BY FRI AFTN...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS XPCTD THIS PD...CONTG INTO FRI NGT. MOST MODELS
ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A SECOND S/WV MOVG SE FROM HUDSON BAY
CAN BRINGING A RE-ENFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO THE FA LATER
SAT INTO SAT EVE...WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS WITH THIS S/WV NOT
XPCTD TO CROSS THE FA FULLY UNTIL SUN AFTN. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
ANY MORN SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO CLDNSS QUICKLY BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTNS...WITH SCT SHWRS FORMING IN THE AFTN AND CONTG INTO THE
EVE SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA. DUE TO THIS PATTERN....
WHATEVER WRMG THE FA RECEIVES THU AND THU EVE WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED BY A SETBACK IN TEMPS FOR FRI AND THE WEEKEND...BUT
WITH MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLDNSS AND A SIG NW PRES GRAD OVR THE
FA...AT LEAST WE CAN SAY THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE NO MODEL
CONSENSUS BEST CANDIDATE FOR OVRNGT FZG TEMPS FOR ANY PTN OF THE
FA FOR FRI...SAT AND SUN NGT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRATUS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUESDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RAIN MOVES IN. MSLY IFR IN LOW
CLDNSS AND REDUCED VSBYS WITH OCNL RN/SHWRS WILL CONT WED NGT
THRU THU FOR ALL TAF SITES BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR OCCURS FROM NW TO SE THU NGT THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR WIND HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED THEN USED 125 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED FOR GUSTS. WILL REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 10 PERCENT WITH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN MID 40S AND WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED.
FOR WAVES: CURRENTLY COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SE WIND
WAVE AND LONG PERIOD SWELL. EXPECT SOUTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO EAST AND
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FETCH WILL BE OF SHORE DURATION SINCE IT
WILL BE BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MID DAY MONDAY. WILL EXTEND SCA
UNTIL 2100Z. WILL NOT GO ANY LONGER THAN THAT A CURRENT TIME DUE
TO SHORT DURATION OF SOUTHEAST FETCH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY RETURNING
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. MSLY SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD
WED NGT INTO FRI...MSLY WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZS...THEN NO
HDLNS XPCTD FRI AFTN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/FITZSIMMONS