Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 300723 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 323 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI. FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE... HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY MORN PATCHY FOG.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.