Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 152352
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
752 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit east of the Maritimes tonight through
Saturday. A warm front crosses the region Sunday. A cold front
crosses the region Monday. High pressure builds toward the
region Tuesday into Wednesday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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752 PM Update: Current satellite imagery shows that the shield
of stratocu across the Central Highlands and interior Downeast
regions continues to gradually shift southward through this
evening. Radar mosaic returns indicate that isolated showers
continue to slide of the Washington county coast. Gradually
clearing skies will continue through the evening, but with
another shortwave approaching the area from west, more clouds
may move in through the second half of the night. Patchy fog may
also develop, especially along the coast, should low level
moisture hang on through the night. Only minor changes made with
this update including the addition of patchy fog Downeast.
Previous Discussion:
Surface low pressure exits east of Nova Scotia tonight, while
an upper level disturbance crosses the region. The upper
disturbance exits across the Maritimes early Saturday. At the
surface, a narrow ridge of high pressure builds across the
region. Could still have isolated rain showers Downeast this
evening with the exiting low. Otherwise, expect partly/mostly
cloudy skies across northern portions of the forecast area
tonight with mostly cloudy skies across the remainder of the
region. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with isolated
snow/rain showers across northern areas Saturday. Across
Downeast areas, expect a partly sunny morning then a mostly
cloudy afternoon with isolated rain showers also possible. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s north, to the
upper 20s to around 30 Downeast. High temperatures Saturday
will range from around 40 to the lower 40s north, to the mid
to upper 40s Downeast.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak shortwave energy is expected to move into the area by
Saturday evening ahead of the low pressure system. This
shortwave is expected to bring light showers to the region with
snow in the north and rain in the south. However, mild temps
throughout Saturday night could change to a rain/snow mix from
the Central Highlands through central Aroostook. After midnight
and into Sunday morning, the initial precip will enter the
region from the west. The rain/snow mix should continue to push
north as the S winds increase pushing the warm air north. Once
temps reach into the upper 30s in the north, precip is expected
to switch to all rain. The cold front is expected to move
through the area by Sunday afternoon, which will gradually cool
temps. These cooling temps will switch the rain back to snow in
the north before exiting the area.
By Sunday night, the low is expected to intensify and pick up
speed, which will push precip out of the region early. Winds
should shift to the W, causing temps to drop just slightly below
freezing as cloud cover will help. By Monday, the low will
become slightly stationary, wrapping moisture back around into
the region. The chance for precip should increase in the north
and spread south by the afternoon.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The stationary low is expected to continue to wrap moisture
around in the north through Tuesday, but should be fairly light.
By Tuesday night, the upper level trof should start to push out
of the area, moving the low out to sea with some shortwave
energy to follow. This could create brief snow showers across
the north until the end of the week. By Friday, models lose
consistency with either a possible low pressure system or high
pressure moving in over the weekend. Expect temps in the 30s for
the week.
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.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Generally VFR over northern terminals tonight.
There is a slight chance (10%) of MVFR cigs developing through
the early morning hours on Saturday. VFR will continue into the
day on Saturday, with occasional MVFR conditions possible in
isolated snow and rain showers across the north. For Downeast
terminals, MVFR/IFR early tonight with isolated rain showers
possible, though showers will continue to quickly exit off the
coast. VFR conditions persist through the night. VFR Downeast
Saturday with isolated afternoon rain showers possible. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots tonight through Saturday for all terminals.
SHORT TERM: Saturday night...MVFR/IFR in rain/snow. SSE wind
5-10 kts.
Sunday...IFR, possibly becoming MVFR south late. S wind becoming
W late 5-10 kts.
Sunday night...VFR south. MVFR north. W wind 5-10 kts.
Monday...VFR south, MVFR north. W wind around 10 kts.
Monday night...MVFR to IFR north. VFR south. W wind around 10
kts.
Tuesday...MVFR north. VFR south. NW wind 5-10 kts.
Tue night-Wed...VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Saturday. Isolated rain showers this evening.
SHORT TERM: Winds will increase to SCA levels by Saturday night
and remain through Sunday evening when winds decrease by seas
remain SCA. Winds and seas return to SCA by Monday, then
decrease below SCA by Monday night. By Tuesday night, winds
return to SCA conditions.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash
Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash