Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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209 FXUS61 KCAR 191501 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1101 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area today while Hurricane Jose approaches southeastern New England. Jose will turn eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... High pressure will remain ridged across the region today. With abundant low level moisture, generally expect skies to remain cloudy/mostly cloudy across central and Downeast portions of the forecast area this afternoon where scattered showers are also possible. Areas of fog and patchy drizzle will also persist near the Downeast coast. Expect clouds will thin and lift across northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon, where partly/mostly cloudy skies are expected. Isolated showers are also possible across the north this afternoon. The warmest temperatures this afternoon, in the mid 70s, are expected across northwest areas with the most sun. Temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 are expected across much of the rest of the forecast area, with mid to upper 60s along the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with afternoon temperatures, cloud cover and shower chances. Previous Discussion... Hurricane Jose is still expected to track north, then turn northeast and east passing a few hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod. A band of rain well north of the storm is expected to move onto the Downeast coast late today or this evening and continue overnight. Otherwise, the main impact from Jose will be high and potentially dangerous surf along the Downeast coast through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Jose, which is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm by Wednesday morning, will reach as far north as 40N on Wednesday, well south of the Gulf of Maine, before getting ready to turn back to the southeast. Rain along the downeast coast should taper off early Wednesday as high pressure begins pushing down from the north. However, dangerous surf is expected to continue through Wednesday and likely into Thursday as the slow moving storm slides east then begins to turn back to the southeast. Skies should partially clear over the north Wednesday but remain mostly cloudy Downeast. High pressure building down from the north will then bring clearing from north to south Wednesday night. This will give way to a sunny and mild day on Thursday as high pressure and strong upper level ridging builds over the area. Temperatures will be near, or just a few degrees above normal on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry wx through this term expected w/above normal temperatures. Jose to begin to drop southward Thursday night into Friday as shown by the latest forecast from the NHC. The biggest effects will be along the coast but more so over the coastal waters and this is addressed in the marine and tidal sections below. High pres is set to build across the region Friday into the weekend. The long range guidance diverges a bit for Saturday w/a disturbance/frontal boundary forecast to slide down from Canada which appears to be remnants of a MCC/MCS. The GFS is robust w/bringing a decent dose of QPF across the northern tier while the ECMWF is much drier and keeps much of the activity well north of the state. The Canadian Global model does hint at some light rainfall, but much weaker. Thinking here is that the GFS could be having convective feedback issues and therefore leaned toward a much drier forecast. As stated above, daytime temps will be averaging well above normal. Interestingly enough, the 00z run of the ECMWF showed Jose getting caught up in the path of Hurricane Maria and gets pushed on out further the ene later Sunday into Monday. The 00Z GFS is somewhat similar to this solution. We will need to wait and see what transpires over the next several days. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally IFR/LIFR conditions are expected with low clouds and fog Downeast this afternoon through tonight. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected across northern areas into early this afternoon, with generally VFR/MVFR conditions later this afternoon. Conditions should lower to IFR/LIFR levels across northern areas again tonight. Conditions should improve to VFR across the north on Wednesday and improve to MVFR Downeast. VFR conditions are then expected Wednesday night through Thursday with the possible exception of some patchy fog across the north early Thursday morning. SHORT TERM: VFR right through the period for all terminals as winds in the blyr become nne allowing for clearing and no visibility restrictions. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas remains in effect this afternoon into Wednesday morning. Visibilities will be reduced in fog this afternoon through tonight. Showers are also possible this afternoon, with rain tonight. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions to continue Thursday into Friday w/sustained winds of 20 to 25 kts. There is a chance that gusts could reach up to 35 kts especially on the outer zones on Thursday. Seas will be 7-10 ft w/a ese swell slowly subsiding to 5 to 7 ft by late Friday. Winds will drop back to 15 to 20 kt by Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A high surf advisory remains in effect and was extended into Wednesday. Concern is very long period southeasterly swell from Jose, currently running as high as 16 seconds. High period swell will have a much greater impact in the surf zone. Long period waves can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected. The astronomical tide will be at the highest levels of the month as well over the next few days. Northeasterly winds are expected to increase Wednesday resulting in an additional 1 foot storm surge. The additional increase in water level due to the winds coupled with high period southeasterly swell could result in splash over around the time of high tide Tonight (11:00 PM) and Wednesday Morning (11:30 AM) in areas exposed to large ocean waves. Since the expected storm surge is going to be less than 2 feet, the total water levels inland from the coast are not expected to be high enough for flooding resulting from storm surge. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer Marine...Norcross/Bloomer Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone/Bloomer

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