Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 172322
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
622 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017
High pressure will build across the region this afternoon and tonight.
A weak low pressure system will approach from the northwest on
Saturday and cross northern Maine Saturday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6:22 PM Update...A weak surface ridge will build toward the
region tonight. The wind will diminish this evening and will
become light in most areas by late evening. A clear sky is
expected most of the night, with some increase in high cloud
toward morning well in advance of low pressure that will move
into western Ontario by 12Z sat with a warm front to extend from
the low into western NY State. Only minor tweaks to the
forecast based on the 6 PM observations, and the latest
satellite and near term model trends.
Winds will gradually die off this evening as the high pressure
builds. This presents a challenge in terms of tonight`s lows as
a narrow window of radiational cooling develops between the time
winds decrease and upper level clouds increase ahead of an
approaching warm front late tonight. With that in mind, have
gone with a range of 5-10F in the usually colder spots and lower
teens elsewhere. A band of thicker upper level clouds well ahead
of the surface warm front will cross the forecast area Saturday
morning and may even include a brief burst of snow showers for
northern zones by late morning. A quick dusting is possible. In
the afternoon, skies will start clearing towards Bangor, Milo
and Ellsworth. In a warming air mass, this sunshine will
generate some highs in the mid to upper 30s. Towards Aroostook
County where clouds will hold all day, highs will reach the
upper 20s to lower 30s. With the warm air advection, expect
highs will be later in the afternoon rather than directly
aligned with peak daytime insolation.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure is expected to approach the region from the
northwest Saturday Evening then move across the area late at
night. This system is expected to bring light snow across
northern areas Saturday night into Sunday. Colder air will then
build in behind the system Sunday evening. Strong high pressure
will then build in from the west Monday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong high pressure will then crest over the state early
Tuesday Morning then move to the east Tuesday Night. A cold
front will approach from the west and move across New England
during the day Wednesday and produce snow showers. Weak high
pressure will build across the state Thursday and crest over the
region Friday Morning. Intense low pressure will move through
he Great Lakes and into Canada late Friday into Saturday.
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Predominately VFR conditions are forecast. A period
of -sn may produce MVFR ceilings and visibilities from KHUL
north to KFVE Sat PM.
SHORT TERM: Expect VFR/MVFR conditions Sunday and Monday. VFR
Conditions are expected Tuesday. MVFR conditions are expected
NEAR TERM: The end time for the SCA looks reasonable. The wind
is still gusting to 25-30 knots early this evening. Late this
evening and overnight the wind and seas will slowly decrease
with the high building in Saturday morning. Towards later in
the afternoon, winds and seas will increase towards another
potential SCA event.
SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained winds. For waves:
Southerly wind wave is expected to dominate Sunday into Sunday
Night. Winds are then expected to go off-shore Monday
So far this month the average temperature at Caribou of 7.3
degrees (F) is 4.9 degrees below average. At Bangor, the
average temperature of 16 degrees (F) is 3.1 degrees below
A total of 37.4 inches of snow has been observed at Bangor so
far this month. It ranks as the 5th snowiest February on record
at Bangor. The all-time snowiest February was in 1969 when 58
inches of snow was observed.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for