Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 120148 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MAINE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND WARMER W/READINGS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A WSW BREEZE KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. A SSW WIND ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THIS AREA BY THE AFTERNOON CAPPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR POPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. THE SKY GRIDS FROM THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND CMCREG. FOR WIND USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT THREE HOURLY FROM THE SUPERBLEND. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL AND THE MINIMUM FROM THE SUPERBLEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT COULD POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY RESULTING IN SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR ALL GRIDS...AND WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS...BUT WILL REDUCE SPEED BY 20 PERCENT DUE TO EXPECTED BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND INCREASES IN DISTANCE TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN CONTINUES UNTIL BROKEN UP BY A WIND SHIFT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO BE FACTOR WITH THIS FETCH ACROSS GULF OF MAINE...HOWEVER WITH HE FETCH EXTENDING ACROSS WARMER WATER TO SOUTH THINK IT IS POSSIBLE FOR WAVES 7+ FEET/8-9 SECONDS BY LATER TUESDAY. HAVE USED THE WNA/4.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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