Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240322 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1122 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the region until Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest later Thursday and track across the Gulf of Maine on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1125 pm update...Skies are mostly clear over all but the far north and Downeast so lowered cloud cover to go mostly clear across much of the area. Otherwise, no major changes this hour. Prev discussion blo... Ridging dominates tonight and radiational cooling will produce shallow inversions and lows dropping to the upper 30s in the Allagash. Elsewhere, expect lows in the 40s. Some patchy shallow fog is possible later tonight towards the coast. The inversion will quickly break early Wednesday morning and temperatures will warm faster than today. Early in the day, there will be some thicker areas of cirrus streaming northeastward from an area of low pressure along the New Jersey coast. The low will track south of the Gulf of Maine later Wednesday. Fair weather cumulus will develop for the afternoon...especially in the northern half of the forecast area. It`s possible a few of these cumulus could generate a very brief, light rainshower...but will not include any pops. The chances would be highest along a trough extending from the eastern Great Lakes towards the Moosehead Lake region. With more sunshine and a slightly warmer air mass, expect most areas to reach the lower 70s except the coast where the weak flow will promote onshore breezes. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The models are in good agreement through the period. At the start of the period, the local area will be under a weak high pressure ridge separating two areas of low pressure. The first is in the north Atlantic, south of Nova Scotia. The second is over the southern Midwest. By Thursday morning the low over the midwest will deepen and move north to Michigan, its associated occluded front extending east into the Atlantic east of Long Island. Secondary development along the triple point can be expected, though the GFS doesn`t indicate it at this time. Thursday evening the occluded front moves north to the Gulf of Maine. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this solution. The GEM shows the front over south central Maine running about 6 hrs ahead of the other two models. Both the GFS and ECMWF show weakness and winds supporting a low near Cape Cod. By Friday morning all 3 models move the front to central Maine. The low deepens over Cape Cod, with the upper level energy transferring to the low over Cape Cod. The low will track east along the Maine coast through the day Friday, with good agreement that the low will end up in or near the Bay of Fundy by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A low with a co-located upper low height center, located over the Bay of Fundy will be the primary weather maker at the start of the period. By Saturday morning, the low will track east into the Canadian Maritimes and higher pressure will build across the area. The extended models disagree on the next system...a cold front over central Quebec. The GFS moves it south into northern Maine. The EC keeps it stationary over central Quebec. A low over central IL will deepen and move northeast over Lake Huron, its associated warm front extending east across NJ into the North Atlantic, and by Sunday evening the warm front will be pushing into SW Maine. Both extended models indicate a secondary low but differ on its position. The GFS develops the low near Cape Cod. The EC is east of Cape Cod and south of Nova Scotia. Both models keep the occluded front across Maine through Wednesday afternoon when the cold front finally pushes through. The upper low will track across the area from Tuesday evening through the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. BHB may see patchy fog in onshore flow btwn 06-10z thus have included tempo group. Cu expected to develop in the afternoon. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions at all sites Wednesday evening through late Thursday morning. Ceiling will begin to decrease as an occluded front moves north into the Gulf of Maine Thursday morning. Ceiling will decrease to MVFR by noon Thursday for BHB and BGR, falling to LMFR to IFR Thursday evening. HUL, PQI, CAR will fall to MVFR Late Thursday afternoon, then to LMVFR to IFR around midnight. IFR conditions in rain will persist through the day Friday as the low pressure move east along the downeast coast. Conditions will break early Saturday morning as the low moves east into eastern Canada. All sites will improve to VFR. VFR conditions will hold until another front moves south out of Canada into northern Maine at the end of the period bring FVE, CAR and PQI back to LMVFR, with periods of IFR in showers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: South to southeast swell around 3 feet will continue through the period with light winds. Fog will diminish this afternoon and evening, but patchy fog will briefly return late tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA through early Friday morning. Winds will build to low end SCA conditions by around 3am Friday and will remain above SCA through midday Friday. Seas will remain 5 ft or greater from Friday morning through midday Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/MCW Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...Farrar/MCW/Norton Marine...Farrar/MCW/Norton

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