Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 152352 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 752 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will exit east of the Maritimes tonight through Saturday. A warm front crosses the region Sunday. A cold front crosses the region Monday. High pressure builds toward the region Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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752 PM Update: Current satellite imagery shows that the shield of stratocu across the Central Highlands and interior Downeast regions continues to gradually shift southward through this evening. Radar mosaic returns indicate that isolated showers continue to slide of the Washington county coast. Gradually clearing skies will continue through the evening, but with another shortwave approaching the area from west, more clouds may move in through the second half of the night. Patchy fog may also develop, especially along the coast, should low level moisture hang on through the night. Only minor changes made with this update including the addition of patchy fog Downeast. Previous Discussion: Surface low pressure exits east of Nova Scotia tonight, while an upper level disturbance crosses the region. The upper disturbance exits across the Maritimes early Saturday. At the surface, a narrow ridge of high pressure builds across the region. Could still have isolated rain showers Downeast this evening with the exiting low. Otherwise, expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across northern portions of the forecast area tonight with mostly cloudy skies across the remainder of the region. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with isolated snow/rain showers across northern areas Saturday. Across Downeast areas, expect a partly sunny morning then a mostly cloudy afternoon with isolated rain showers also possible. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s north, to the upper 20s to around 30 Downeast. High temperatures Saturday will range from around 40 to the lower 40s north, to the mid to upper 40s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak shortwave energy is expected to move into the area by Saturday evening ahead of the low pressure system. This shortwave is expected to bring light showers to the region with snow in the north and rain in the south. However, mild temps throughout Saturday night could change to a rain/snow mix from the Central Highlands through central Aroostook. After midnight and into Sunday morning, the initial precip will enter the region from the west. The rain/snow mix should continue to push north as the S winds increase pushing the warm air north. Once temps reach into the upper 30s in the north, precip is expected to switch to all rain. The cold front is expected to move through the area by Sunday afternoon, which will gradually cool temps. These cooling temps will switch the rain back to snow in the north before exiting the area. By Sunday night, the low is expected to intensify and pick up speed, which will push precip out of the region early. Winds should shift to the W, causing temps to drop just slightly below freezing as cloud cover will help. By Monday, the low will become slightly stationary, wrapping moisture back around into the region. The chance for precip should increase in the north and spread south by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The stationary low is expected to continue to wrap moisture around in the north through Tuesday, but should be fairly light. By Tuesday night, the upper level trof should start to push out of the area, moving the low out to sea with some shortwave energy to follow. This could create brief snow showers across the north until the end of the week. By Friday, models lose consistency with either a possible low pressure system or high pressure moving in over the weekend. Expect temps in the 30s for the week. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Generally VFR over northern terminals tonight. There is a slight chance (10%) of MVFR cigs developing through the early morning hours on Saturday. VFR will continue into the day on Saturday, with occasional MVFR conditions possible in isolated snow and rain showers across the north. For Downeast terminals, MVFR/IFR early tonight with isolated rain showers possible, though showers will continue to quickly exit off the coast. VFR conditions persist through the night. VFR Downeast Saturday with isolated afternoon rain showers possible. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots tonight through Saturday for all terminals. SHORT TERM: Saturday night...MVFR/IFR in rain/snow. SSE wind 5-10 kts. Sunday...IFR, possibly becoming MVFR south late. S wind becoming W late 5-10 kts. Sunday night...VFR south. MVFR north. W wind 5-10 kts. Monday...VFR south, MVFR north. W wind around 10 kts. Monday night...MVFR to IFR north. VFR south. W wind around 10 kts. Tuesday...MVFR north. VFR south. NW wind 5-10 kts. Tue night-Wed...VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Saturday. Isolated rain showers this evening. SHORT TERM: Winds will increase to SCA levels by Saturday night and remain through Sunday evening when winds decrease by seas remain SCA. Winds and seas return to SCA by Monday, then decrease below SCA by Monday night. By Tuesday night, winds return to SCA conditions. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash

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