Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 192041 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 341 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will lift north of the area tonight as a cold front pushes off to the east. High pressure will build south of the region on Monday then slide southeast of area on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Strong gusty westerly winds will prevail across the area tonight as a cold front continues to our east across the Maritimes and low pressure lifts north through Quebec. Rainshowers across the north and over the higher elevations to the west may briefly change over to snow flurries before ending tonight. Otherwise, the north will remain mostly cloudy and Downeast will have partial clearing. High pressure will build south of the area on Monday as a weak upper trough slides across the north. The trough to the north will bring a mostly cloudy sky over northern areas and partial cloudiness Downeast. Otherwise, Monday will be a dry and cold day with a moderate westerly breeze continuing.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A ridge of high pressure moving across the state will bring drier weather Mon night into Tue evening. Clear skies Mon night may yield to an area of mid-level clouds Tue AM into afternoon, before further clearing Tue evening. However, gradually increasing clouds are anticipated Tue night as the next period of disturbed weather approaches. This system appears to be a somewhat complex event, with an upper-level trough and surface front coming in from the west, while a low moves in from the mid-Atlantic. Snow showers associated with the front currently look likely to reach the western border by early Wed AM, and spread eastward across central and northern areas thru the morning. Meanwhile, rain from the south should reach the coast around or just after daybreak Wed and spread across Downeast and the Penobscot Valley, and up into eastern Aroostook by the afternoon. As the cold front pushes across the state, the bulk of the rain and snow shower activity looks likely to clear out late, though isolated activity may linger Wed evening in the north.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Any lingering snow showers will depart Wed night as drier and colder air moves in on moderate NW winds. Highs for Thanksgiving will be about 10F lower than Wed and about 5F below normal, though weak high pressure and upper ridging will allow for some partly to mostly sunny skies. An upper-level shortwave and associated reinforcing cold front will cross the area Thu night into Fri AM, bringing clouds back to the CWA and keeping high temps similar to Thu. Scattered snow showers are possible with this reinforcing front, mainly across northern Maine and the western highlands. There is good agreement on a broad and deep upper trough moving over/south of Hudson Bay and then stalling over Quebec for Sat into early next week. Currently, the most confident time for precip (snow north, rain/mix south) appears to be Sat PM into Sat night, with much of the CWA in likely POPs during that time. Chances for precip will continue into Sun and perhaps beyond, but will depend highly on the evolution and progression of shortwave troughs and surface features around the broad upper- level trough.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions across the north will improve to VFR tonight and remain VFR on Monday. VFR conditions are expected Downeast tonight and Monday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected to persist into Tue evening. Then by 03z Wed, patchy fog may form from KBHB thru KHUL as onshore winds push moisture inland. Widespread reductions to MVFR and IFR CIGs and vsbys are expected Wed AM into Wed evening as rain and snow showers spread across the state. Improvement to VFR conditions expected Wed night, though any lingering snow showers could create locally IFR conditions. VFR expected for all sites Thu into early Thu night, but from 12am Friday into early Fri afternoon, some scattered snow showers may caused reduced conditions for KPQI to KFVE.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A gale warning will remain up through midnight for strong westerly winds following the cold frontal passage. Winds may diminish to SCA late tonight into Monday morning, but may increase to a gale again Monday afternoon with strong wind gusts due to cold advection and deep mixing. SHORT TERM: SCA to possibly Gale W-NW`ly winds winds are expected Mon night, shifting SW`ly and decreasing some Tue AM. Patchy fog is possible on moist southerly flow. Seas may also briefly drop below SCA levels Tue AM, but a quick return to SCA SW`ly winds and seas is expected for Tue PM into Tue night. Seas may build into the 7 to 10 ft range Tue night. A shift to fresh NW`ly winds is expected by Wed afternoon as a front pushes off the coast, and seas will gradually drop.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Bloomer/Kredensor Marine...Bloomer/Kredensor

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