Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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450 FXUS61 KCAR 100555 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1255 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will track south of Nova Scotia overnight. A cold front will approach late Sunday and cross the region Sunday evening as weak low pres crosses south of the region on Monday. After weak high pres ridges across the region Monday night...another low pressure from the great lakes will approach Tue.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1255 am update... Snow conts to fall acrs CWA tonight. Highest snowfall totals appear to be along the coast in heavier banding from this afternoon and evening. Snow is winding down along the coast as banding lifts north with an addn`l 0.1 to 0.2 inches still to fall acrs cntrl and ern zones. Snow ratios earlier in the evng were around 12-13:1 and with progged liquid qpf of 0.15 expected thru 12z, fcst snow accums btwn 06-12z appear to be right in line with arnd 2 inches in the far east and lesser back to the south and west. Update will ingest latest obs into grids but minimal chgs needed at this time. Previous Discussion... Greatest snfl totals by Sun morn will likely occur from E Cntrl/NE Washington county into adjacent SE Aroostook county areas where local amts arnd 7 inches is possible. Total amts will likely be lower ovr SE coastal Washington County where milder maritime BL temps will result in mixed sn/rn, lowering SLRs in this area, but there is some uncertainty in how long any rn will last into the ovrngt ovr this area, so we will need to monitor for the possibility of xtndg the wntr wx adv here as well. Otherwise...steady snow will taper to sct sn shwrs first ovr SW ptns of the FA very late tngt working NE to far NE ptns late Sun morn. Ovrngt lows will be mild across the Rgn due to ovrrng snfl, with little recovery in fcst hi temps on Sun with an initially continental Canadian polar air air mass prior to any arctic air after this tm frame.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A 500MB trof will remain to our north through Monday. Short wave energy will rotate through the trof and cross the region later Sunday night and Monday. This results in a slight to low chance for snow showers late Sunday night through Monday, mainly across the north and mountains. It does turn colder on Monday behind this system with highs on Monday only in the mid to upper teens across the St. John Valley and lower 20s across the remainder of far northern Maine. Across down east areas, highs on Monday will be in the lower 30s. High pressure will builds across the top of the state Monday night with light winds. Depending on how quickly high and mid cloud moves in advance of the next system we could see a few sub zero readings by morning across the north. The high quickly retreats across the Canadian maritimes early Tuesday On Tuesday, short wave energy will slide out of central Canada on the backside of an upper trof, helping to amplify the trof across the eastern half of the nation. Surface low is expected to move east from the great lakes region in response to the energy rounding the upper trof, then re-develop across the gulf of Maine during Tuesday. There still is quite a bit of forecast uncertainty regarding the exact track and evolution of this system. Across the far north it appears precipitation would be all snow, with snow or rain down east, depending on the exact track of the low. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The surface low will slowly track north of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with an upper low crossing the region, with lingering snow showers expected. Thursday should be a mainly dry day before another low bring another chance for some snow by Friday. This will be followed by high pressure and dry weather Saturday. Temperatures through the extended period will average below seasonal normals for this time of year. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR expected at all terminals in -sn before improving to MVFR by 15z at northern terminals and around 11z at BHB and BGR. MVFR continues in the north into the afternoon before becoming VFR. Southern terminals will be VFR by mid-morning. SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR expected Sunday night. We could see briefly lower conditions in a few snow showers late Sunday night through early Monday. This would be mainly across the northern TAF sites. Tuesday looks like we will see IFR regionwide in developing snow north and snow/rain down east. Expect these conditions to persist into Tuesday night. MVFR in sct snow showers Wednesday, mainly north. VFR looks likely on Thursday as high pressure build in.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will cont with the SCA for all of our waters as NE/N winds cont to increase ovrngt as an open Atlc sfc low tracks S and E of the waters ovrngt. Max wv hts will occur Sun morn, then slowly diminish Sun aftn as winds become NW Sun aftn. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions are likely most of the extended period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ002-004>006-010-011-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MEZ015>017-029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term... Long Term... Aviation...Farrar/ Marine...Farrar/

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