Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191110 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 710 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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710 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN AND MOVED THINGS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE DOWNEAST W/A CHANCE FOR RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. KEPT THE FOG IN FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND TEMPERATURES. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE W/SOME OF THIS FALLING AS RAIN/SNOW. THE SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS PER THE FVE METAR. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, BASICALLY CLOUDS SKIES W/SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES W/ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SET OFF SOME MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES OF UP TO 1/2 INCH. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10". ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE AIRMASS COULD DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RH GREATER THAN 80% FROM 925-750MBS. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 J/KG TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE 2 SOUNDINGS BY 18Z(2PM). THEREFORE, SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD OCCUR W/THE FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET OR EVEN GRAUPEL IN THOSE HEAVIER BANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIT EARLY TODAY AS STRONG CA IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND RIC INTO TODAY SHOWING THAT COOL DOWN. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP W/A SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED TO BOOST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z(2AM) AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. A RATHER COLD NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT EXITS THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY LATER NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: FR/MFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG. ELSEWHERE, VFR W/A BRIEF MFR THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF FR IN HEAVIER SQUALLS. ACROSS KB GR AND KABOB, EXPECTING FR W/THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MFR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT TO FR FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THERE COULD BE A SURGE TO SAC ESPECIALLY IN WIND GUSTS BY THE EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ZONES. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS TO 25+KITS TONIGHT W/CA HITTING THE WATERS AND A GRADIENT HOLDING ON AT LEAST THROUGH 2 AM. AT TM, HELD OFF ON THE SAC HEADLINE AND WILL ASSESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING. COORDINATED THIS W/GYX THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY...
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ICE STILL REMAINS IN ON THE ST. JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO VAN BUREN W/OPEN WATER ON EITHER END OF THE JAM PER THE LAW ENFORCMENT PER PHONE CALL THIS MORNING AT 620 AM. NO ISSUES REPORTED ATTM FROM THE LAW ENFORCEMENT OR EMA AUTHORITIES. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PENOBSCOT AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS, LEVELS ARE LEVELING OFF AND NOW FALLING BACK MAINLY ON THE PENOBSCOT. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER IS FLUCTUATING RIGHT AT 16.2 FT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA HYDROLOGY...HEWITT

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