Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 151450 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1050 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the area later tonight. High pressure will build across the region from the west Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1020 AM Update: The biggest chg this update was to xtnd the wind adv from the coast to all of the fcst area for this eve thru the ovrngt hrs. Models have increased winds alf by 5kt or so for this tm frame from ystdy`s guidance, so would rather be safe. With lmtd mixing potential, the best areas to obsv wind gusts at or greater than 40 mph will be ovr open...high trrn. Also, strong wind gusts will be intermittent, most likely occurring with stronger rn bands ahead of the front this eve across the N hlf of the Rgn and with the frontal passage ovrngt. Also, higher trrn alg the immediate coast is subject to 40+ mph gusts anytime this eve into the ovrngt. Otherwise, fcst PoPs tdy and eve were re-done based on fcst 6 hrly QPFs with updates to fcst hrly temps, dwpts, and cld cvr thru the aftn based on latest sfc obs and sat imagery, with no chgs to fcst hi temps attm. Orgnl Disc: Strong wind gusts expected this afternoon into tonight. A warm front is lifting n attm per the latest analysis. Temps have cooled down n of the boundary, but temps behind the front have started warming. Fog was prevalent across portions of the region, mainly across the coast and northern locations. Radar showed rain pushing ne into w and nw areas. This will overspread ne areas later this morning. Winds will turn to the sse and increase this morning after sunrise. This will help to lift the fog. Majority of the rain will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA today w/southern areas staying mostly dry. The region looks like it gets into a warm sector as the warm front lifts to the border. Stayed close to the daycrew`s assessment of temps shooting well into the 60s and possibly lower 70s especially w/any sun. The NAM and RAP guidance showed 925 mbs temps hitting 18-20c by late afternoon. Sounding data showed llvl destabilizing some especially across the far n and nw this afternoon into the evening. PWATs forecast to hit 1/5" w/strong shear of 50 kts at 0-6km. MUCAPE of 200 joules could be enough to allow for some isolated convection. 925mb jet of 50 kt noted on the soundings and any convection could allow for some of this wind to get translated down the surface. Decided to include isolated tstms in the forecast for the afternoon & evening. Further s, 925mbs jet of 50 kt noted for the Downeast coast w/a decent alignment of the wind field through 700 mbs. Therefore, strong wind gusts to 50 mph expected for Hancock and Washington County coast. Decided to issue a Wind Advisory for these coastal counties through midnight. Tonight, the cold front is forecast move across the region w/the strong wind threat continuing into the evening. It will be quite warm in the evening and a heavy band of rain possible given the high PWATS mainly across the north. Temps will be falling back well after midnight w/the cold fropa and winds veering to the wnw. Temps by sunrise Monday morning are expected to be in the low to mid 40s n and w while further s, temps are expected to be in the low to mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Strong NW winds behind the cold front and cold air advection will be primary issues for Monday. Gusts will likely reach over 30 mph in the morning, but decrease in the afternoon. Highs will probably occur first thing in the morning with temperatures remaining steady through the rest of the day. NW winds continue Monday night as high pressure builds. Lows will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s...except some lower 20s in the Allagash by early Tuesday morning. High pressure will crest over the area Tuesday with sunny skies, but highs will remain in the upper 40s north to lower 50s for Bangor and the Down East region. An occluded front will cross Tuesday night with some scattered showers towards Aroostook County, but no appreciable rainfall amounts. Lows will be nearly 10 degrees warmer than Monday night due to frontal clouds and warm advection. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will dominate through the period. Wednesday and Thursday will feature a warming trend with a SW surface flow ahead of an occluded front that will move through the area late Thursday. This front will bring little or no precip and minimal change in temperatures after its passage. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most of the region Thursday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR conditions across KCAR and KPQI this morning while the rest of the terminals are VFR. Expecting conditions to deteriorate to MVFR later this morning. Conditions across the area expected to improve to VFR by late afternoon, and then conditions will drop to MVFR w/passage of the cold front. LLWS expected this afternoon into tonight. SHORT TERM: Predominately VFR conditions are expected with excellent vis. Strong NW winds gusting as high as 30 mph on Monday will be the biggest hazard during the period Monday into Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA remains in place as s winds increase to 25 kt by later this afternoon into tonight. Gusts to 35 kt are expected especially over the outer waters. Winds are expected to veer to the wnw later tonight w/speeds holding 20-25 kts. Seas will build to 7 to 11 ft by tonight. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions will wind down Monday night. A marginal SCA is possible Tuesday night. Another SCA is possible Thursday into Thursday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Monday for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...VJN/MCW Marine...VJN/MCW

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