Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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415 FXUS61 KCAR 282247 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 647 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this afternoon into the early evening. High pressure will build into the area tonight, followed by a stronger cold front later Saturday afternoon. High pressure will build for Saturday night and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 645 PM Update.... Tstms did develop over portions of Washington County but have since moved e. 18Z NAM soundings show airmass stabilizing by 00Z(8PM). Satl imagery showed low clouds hanging on across the north an coastal areas while central areas including Bangor have seen some breaks. Followed this trend w/some partial clearing and showers ending. Fog formation expected this evening especially in the areas that have some breaks in the clouds. Adjusted the hrly temps to fit the latest obs and conditions. See marine section below. Previous Discussion... There is a weak shortwave accompanying the cold front as it moves through the Bangor and Down East regions this afternoon. This feature will have ample elevated CAPE for isolated thunderstorms in these regions this afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise, the weakening cold front will gradually push out the low level moisture through the evening. The exception will be towards the coast and Down East region where fog will linger until later tonight until the winds shift to offshore. Two more upper level shortwaves affect the area on Saturday. The first will arrive ahead of tomorrow`s cold front and affect the Down East region with some shower activity during the morning into midday. Have gone with mostly chance pops as confidence in this feature is not high. Have specified a max of about a tenth of an inch of rain with this feature. The second minor shortwave is lined up with the cold frontal boundary that will be crossing during the afternoon. The front won`t cross in time to prevent highs from reaching the 60s across the majority of the area. A few readings near 70F may occur in southern Penobscot County. Onshore winds will limit highs along the coast to the 50s. Unlike recent days, winds will be the big concern for Saturday with deep mixing and westerly gusts potentially hitting nearly 40 mph in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Cdfnt expected to be just exiting the CWA at the beginning of the pd with NW flow and caa occurring drg the ovrngt. Cyclonic flow conts thru the day Sunday as hipres builds ovr the region. Low clds under subsidence inversion wl finally break Sat night with mins dropping down twd normal with m30s expected CWA-wide by Sun mrng. Winds wl lkly stay up Sat night bfr starting to drop Sun aftn with building ridge. Wmfnt wl be approaching the area early in the weekend. All med range guidance showing good area of rain drg the day as overrunning occurs ahd of sfc low advecting in fm the Great Lks. Exact placement of steady pcpn rmns in question with GFS furthest to the north with rmndr of guidance slightly further south. Either way Monday looks to be a cool and damp day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upr low wl be sitting and spinning acrs the Upr Midwest at the beginning of the long term with rain likely contg thru mid-week. H5 trof wl exit the area Wed aftn with scattered showers expected Tue ngt and Wed. Brief ridging is expected on Thur bfr next l/wv trof sets up along the MS Rvr and vry slowly drifts to the east into early next weekend. Latest guidance indicates significant discrepancies twd the end of the week with EC and CMC showing fairly steady pcpn thru the end of the pd as moisture streams in fm the Atlantic. GFS, on the other hand, indicates coastal low ejecting south of the Gulf of Maine twd the end of the week which wl essentially cut-off moisture into the CWA. Still plenty of time to fine-tune fcst but all in all it appears to be unsettled wx into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: A wide variety of conditions exist currently from fog in higher terrain locations and towards the coast to VFR at CAR where downsloping exists. While CAR and PQI may return to IFR this evening, the general trend will be improvement as the night progresses...such that all terminals will be VFR by late tonight. The last terminal remaining in the fog will be BHB. Saturday will be VFR, but strong gusty west to northwest winds will be an issue. Gusts may reach up to 40 mph in the afternoon. SHORT TERM: VFR to start out with Sat afternoon becoming MVFR/IFR Mon morning as rain moves in. Improvement occasionally on Tue but MVFR restrictions will be predominant through Tue night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 645 pm Update...Decided to drop the SCA for seas as waves have dropped below 6 ft and should continue the trend through tonight. The fog will erode later tonight as drier air arrives behind the cold front. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions will be possible Sat night with wind gusts aoa 25kts behind cold front and seas around 5ft. Conditions will remain below SCA through Monday before possibly increasing ahead of next system for Tue morning onward. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/MCW Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Farrar Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Farrar

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