Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 300201 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1001 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 955 PM UPDATE... QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. THE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS FOG. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN AREAWIDE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE, BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DENSER FOG IS NEAR THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS LAST NIGHT, BUT TIMING ITS ONSET RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND HOW FAR INLAND IT SPREADS WILL BE TOUGH. VISIBILITY BEGINNING TO GO DOWN PER OFFSHORE BUOY, EASTPORT IS DOWN TO 5SM VISIBILITY, AND OTHER COASTAL SITES ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY, SO IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GETTING STARTED. EXPECT THE COAST TO BECOME SOCKED IN, WITH FOG POSSIBLY MAKING IT UP TO BANGOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. READ ON FOR DETAILS... TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE BANGOR AREA WILL KEEP MUGGY AIR DOWNEAST TONIGHT, WHILE CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE 50S. FOR THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM WEST TO EAST, CROSSING THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN MAINE AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE`S DIFFERING OPINIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SURFACE CAPE WILL BE AROUND (500-1200 J/KG ON GFS VS 800-2000 J/KG ON NAM), AT LEAST THEY AGREE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN MAINE, ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE, RUNNING AT 6-7 C/KM. SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE 30-35 KT BY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO 12+ KFT, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO ROTATE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL; PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE TRAINING CELLS AND/OR SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE FLOOD THREAT. THE SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCTD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING QUICKLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGINGFROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AFFECTING LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CANADA. UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS APART WILL TRANSIT THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF SUN AND MON ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE MRNG HRS. BY TUES THE TIMING BEGINS TO DIFFER WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOCAL IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RH, SO FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULDN`T BE TOO FAR AWAY. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER BANGOR WILL FOG IN. IF THEY DO, THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NOT BE TOO DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR. SHORT TERM: THERE IS SMALL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL MAINE ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE WITH WAVES/CIGS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...BERDES LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES

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