Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181104 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 604 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today and Friday. Low pressure will track north of the region Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6am update...Added patchy freezing fog for portions of southern Penobscot County as well as much of Hancock and Washington counties early this morning. A sharp and shallow inversion has formed and will take a few hours for surface heating to eliminate it. Previous discussion... The ridging will build from the southwest today with a good deal of sunshine in southern zones. North of the Katahdin region, there`s enough H925-H850 moisture for some cu/sc fields. Without much cold air advection behind the departing low, highs will reach the mid to upper 20s for most of the area. The coast will see some readings in the lower 30s. A weakening cold front will approach from Quebec later today. No measurable precipitation is expected, but a few flurries cannot be ruled out. The cold front will end up in saddle point structure in northern zones tonight between ridging in the SE US and Quebec. The front will gradually creep southward later tonight as a weak H500 trough arrives from the Great Lakes region. There`s won`t be any markedly colder air behind the front. The primary impact of the frontal crossing tonight will be clouds that prevent deep radiational inversions forming with light winds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will cross the region Friday, with a developing warm front to the west. Expect mostly cloudy skies across northern areas Friday, with partly cloudy skies Downeast. Low pressure will track north of Maine Friday night through Saturday. The low will bring light snow to northern portions of the forecast area Friday night through early Saturday with light snow accumulations expected. Across Downeast areas, clouds will increase Friday night through early Saturday then decrease later Saturday. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Friday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will cross the region early Sunday, with high pressure building across the region late. Snow showers could accompany the cold front across mostly the north and mountains early Sunday. Otherwise, generally expect partly cloudy skies across the region Sunday. High pressure exits across the maritimes Monday while low pressure crossing the Great Lakes draws a cold/occluded front toward New England. Cloud cover will increase Monday, with increasing snow chances Monday night. However, uncertainty still exists regarding how rapidly precipitation is able to expand against retreating high pressure. The primary Great Lakes low will track northwest of the region Tuesday drawing a cold/occluded front across the region. Uncertainty also exists regarding the timing of the cold/occluded front Tuesday into Tuesday night along with whether a secondary low develops along the front. Expect snow across the region early Tuesday. Warmer air being drawn north should then allow the snow to transition to a wintry mix, from south to north, across much of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon through early Tuesday night. Precipitation could possibly transition to all rain across Downeast areas later Tuesday, particularly closer to the coast. If a secondary low were to develop along the front and limit the northern extent of warm air, precipitation across northern areas could remain mostly snow. Exact precipitation types/amounts Tuesday remain uncertain at this time. The initial cold/occluded front will exit across the maritimes Wednesday, with a secondary cold front crossing the region later Wednesday. Expect a chance of snow showers Wednesday, with the better chances across the north and mountains. Otherwise, generally expect mostly cloudy skies across the north and mountains with partly cloudy skies Downeast. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Sunday then again Tuesday/Wednesday. Near normal level temperatures are expected Monday. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected outside of some MVFR cigs that will affect terminals from PQI northward. SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Friday. MVFR/IFR, with occasional LIFR, conditions are expected across northern areas later Friday night through early Saturday, with occasional MVFR conditions possible Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Saturday night into Sunday, with generally VFR conditions Downeast. VFR conditions are expected across the region Monday, with MVFR/IFR conditions developing Monday night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No significant weather is expected. Northerly winds will increase this evening with some gusts up to 20 kts. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Friday through early Friday night. Small craft advisory conditions will develop later Friday night then persist through Saturday night. Wind gusts could approach gale levels Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross

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