Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191939 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 339 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will track well south of the region overnight. High pressure will build across the region Monday. An Arctic cold front will cross the region Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Latest model trends supported by latest radar ref trends keeps snfl mainly SE of Downeast Maine tonight. Subsequently, we lowered PoPs to low chc category for lgt sn on the immediate Downeast coast this eve, with with lower or no PoPs Nwrd working into Cntrl ptns of the region. Fcst QPF and snfl was also lowered, with a mention of little or no sn accumulation thinking that perhaps the outer islands may experience a dusting. The back edge of lgt sn ovr coastal Downeast areas, if any, will move E into Srn NB and Nova Scotia late tngt. Otherwise, the NW ptn of the region will cont with clr-mclr skies ovrngt. Fcst lows tngt will be cold, but not as cold as last ngt with a combo of llvl air mass modification and/or a bit more NNE grad wind keeping ovrngt lows about 4 to 8 deg warmer than last ngt. Mon will be ptly to msly sunny N and W and partly to msly cldy S and E as low pres alf remains anchored S and E of Nova Scotia. high temps will not be much different than tdys. More in the way of general cldnss from the W across all of the region Mon ngt should keep ngt tm temps sig milder.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front will approach from the northwest and cross the region Tuesday Night. This will result in a period of light snow late Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning.High pressure will then build in from the west bringing clearing conditions later in the day Wednesday. Have used a blend of the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF for this forecast period. Snow amounts based on Snow Ratio.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Strong high pressure will continue to build in from the west Wednesday Night and crest over the region Thursday Night. The high will then move east into the Atlantic. Another cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest Friday Night. It is possible that this front will stall producing a period of precipitation Friday into Saturday. Precipitation type is expected to be snow in the north and mostly rain south.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: All TAF sites will remain msly unlmtd VFR thru Mon ngt, with KBHB perhaps a brief pd of low VFR this eve. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Tuesday. MVFR/IFR conditions Tuesday Night. VFR conditions Wednesday into Friday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Will cont with SCA for the inner bay/harbor MZ and the gale wrng for our outer MZs, although the gale will be marginal given that the low pres responsible is tracking a little further S than what models indicated ystdy. Later shifts can opt to downgrade to an SCA ovr the outer MZs later tngt if 35kt gusts do not materialize. In any event, SCA conditions will likely cont well into Mon ovr the outer waters aftr the current gale currently slated to end at 12z Mon ends. Winds will likely fall below SCA thresholds ovr the inner bay/harbor MZ by Mon aftn. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained winds then transition to the Super Blend Winds after 0000Z Thursday. For Waves: Expect off-shore wind wave Tuesday into Thursday. Southwest wind wave will dominate Thursday Night.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...VJN/Mignone Marine...VJN/Mignone

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