Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271252 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 852 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weakening low pressure off the New Jersey coast will slowly drift east...northeast into the open north Atlantic today. A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon...followed by a secondary cold front on Saturday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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850 am update...Low clouds and fog under the subsidence inversion will affect the entire forecast area through Friday afternoon. The moisture will squeeze out some light rain and drizzle at times. Temperatures will remain mild with high humidity and not too much diurnal variation. The coast will be the cool spot with the onshore flow. Reviewed the instability aloft with the cold front tomorrow and am not inclined to include mention of showers or isolated thunder as dynamics weaken significantly from the current situation in Ontario. The dominant condition will remain the low level moisture/stability. previous discussion An upper level ridge will build across the region today while an upper low moves moves east of Cape Cod into the open Atlantic. A moist low level air mass will remain in place across the region today as a light south to southeast flow persists around high pressure to our east and low pressure well to our west. Expect cloudy skies today along with patchy fog and scattered showers. High temperatures today should climb to near the 60 degree mark in most places. Expect continued cloudy skies tonight as moist southerly flow continues in advance of a weak cold front approaching from the west. Areas of fog and drizzle will once again be possible tonight, especially across downeast areas. Lows tonight will not fall all that much with abundant low level moisture in place. Lows will generally range be in the lower 50s across the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models cont to be in good agreement in showing a weakening cold front apchg the region from QB prov Fri morn as a lead s/wv alf tops the mean upper ridge ovr New Eng. Shwrs will cross the region W to E from midday Fri into Fri aftn just ahead of the front with just enough SB/MU CAPE to mention a chc of thunder with likely PoPs as hi temps reach the lower to mid 60s at low trrn lctns N of the immediate coast. Skies should at least partially clr behind this system by late Fri eve as sfc winds become more downslope wrly component. Aft slightly cooler ovrngt lows, another s/wv from the Great Lks will bring more cldnss to the region Sat morn and another chc of shwrs by Sat aftn as a secondary cold front from Cntrl Can apchs the region. This front will cross the region Sat eve bringing sig cooler and drier air aft one last day of 60 deg+ and even near 70 deg hi temps ovr interior Downeast areas. Fair, breezy, cool, and drier conditions late Sat ngt will cont thru Sun morn with winds becoming lgt and vrbl Sun aftn as the sfc pres ridge crosses the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Longer range models cont to be in good agreement regarding increasing cldnss Sun ngt ahead of the next sfc low pres system and s/wv alf apchg from the Great Lks. Pds of rnfl will then advc into the region on Mon and cont thru Tue in a low lvl cool air damming scenario as a warm occluded front apchs then crosses the region late Tue. Following the passage of the front, rn will taper to sct shwrs Tue ngt and cont spcly across the N hlf of the region on Wed. Temps will overall be cooler during this pd then this weekend. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions will persist through tonight with low ceilings and areas of fog/drizzle expected. There is the potential for ceilings to lift to lower end MVFR for a bit this afternoon before then falling to LIFR/IFR once again tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Low IFR/IFR clg/vsbys with fog and patchy dz Fri morn will improve to MVFR clgs/ocnl vsbys with shwrs Fri aftn...then improving to VFR by Fri ngt. VFR conditions will cont Sat thru Sun ngt with brief MVFR clgs/vsbys with any shwrs on Sat. The next chc of of MVFR/IFR clgs/vsbys with rn will be on Mon with another round of general rnfl. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory for seas remains in place through tonight. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 nm in fog through tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA seas will be the main concern for spcly the outer MZs thru most of these ptns of the fcst. Went with about 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts, with the guidance beginning to show it`s high warm seasonal bias. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Duda/MCW Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/MCW/VJN Marine...Duda/MCW/VJN

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