Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270215 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1015 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift across the state on Friday. A cold front crosses the area on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms expected across southern areas during the afternoon. Unsettled weather continues into Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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10:00pm update...High and mid-level clouds continue to stream over the region at this hour with some weak radar returns beginning to show up over the Saint Lawrence valley. Forecast looks good to hold off on any precip until after midnight, with newest 00z guidance still showing the bulk of the precip coming in tomorrow morning and being focused across Northern Maine as the jet streak combines with isentropic lift forcing greatest in this region. 7:00 pm udate...Forecast is in good shape overall with just some minor tweaks to the cloud cover grids. High clouds are quicky invading the area from the west as the return flow warm front begins to push into the region. Low level stratus hung strong all day across Central and Southern Aroostook. Stratus is contg to hang on ovr ern Aroostook this aftn. Sfc hipres is building into Canadian Maritimes and as it conts to slide east this evng, low-lvl winds shud veer arnd to the east allowing moisture to head back into CWA. Moisture wl also be heading up fm the southwest ahd of wmfnt with entire CWA clouding up bfr daybreak. As it does, upglide wl increase on 305K lyr btwn 09z and 12z. Latest RAP is showing vry marginal instability acrs areas tonight so wl not include isold thunder attm. Convection is currently firing in the Adirondacks but expect this wl weaken ovrngt as diurnal htg wanes. Expect the bulk of the rain to occur acrs the north drg the mrng hrs as s/wv crosses the area. QPF amnts wl likely range btwn 0.10 and 0.25 inches acrs the far north drg the mrng hrs. Showers wl gradually wind down drg the aftn but enuf moisture wl linger to warrant 30 pops into the evng. Max temps for tomorrow wl be cooler than tda especially in srn zones. Locations along the coast wl see onshore flow and temps wl lkly struggle to reach 60F with nrn sites similar to tda`s temps. Cntrl sxns wl be cooler and wl hv a hard time pushing 70F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... We`re looking at an unsettled start to the long Memorial Day weekend as a frontal boundary waffles around the forecast area. A warm front will lift across the region Friday evening, allowing any lingering showers or thunderstorms to come to an end by midnight or so. A warm front will quickly return back south as a cold front late Friday night/early Saturday morning. This front will become nearly stationary across Downeast/coastal Maine by Saturday afternoon. A very warm and humid airmass will exist along and south of the front, so expect we`ll see showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. Much of the 12z guidance places this front a bit further south than previous runs, though the Canadian and SREF both keep it further north. Did tone back on the pops a bit but didn`t want to go too hog-wild at this point given the continued model differences. At this time the best chances for precipitation still looks to be south of a Millinocket to Greenville line. We`ll have plenty of shear (0-6 km 30-40 kt), but the best instability will be mainly to the south and west of our forecast area. Have left the mention of thunder in the forecast for now, but trends will need to be watched by subsequent shifts. Saturday`s highs will range from the lower/mid 70s in the north to the lower 80s south. For Saturday night into Sunday...The front lifts back north overnight, perhaps as far as the County. The 12z NAM, 09z SREF, and the 12z ECMWF all show a wave and its associated precip sliding down along this front sometime Sunday. Meanwhile, the 12z GFS keeps the area completely dry until late Sunday evening. Have increased pops across much of the forecast area to match the bulk of the guidance since the GFS seems to be an outlier. The differences in the frontal and precip placement make Sunday`s temp forecast a bit tricky, so have gone with a blend, giving highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s areawide. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... We remain on the periphery of the upper ridge into Tuesday. Shortwaves rotating around the high will keep the threat of precipitation around through then, along with mild conditions. Surface ridging finally clears the precip out on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be a little cooler for the middle of the week, but still a bit warmer than normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR restrictions for a time late this afternoon before lifting to VFR at FVE, CAR, PQI and HUL. VFR briefly through 04Z before stratus and MVFR restrictions return to northern terminals. Further south at BGR and BHB expect MVFR after 08z with all terminals at IFR restrictions in -shra through end of TAF valid time. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions are possible along the coast Friday night due to fog, stratus and possible rain showers. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through Saturday evening, with occasional MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms at KBGR and KBHB Saturday afternoon. More widespread activity will move in Sunday, along with prevailing MVFR. Occasional IFR can`t be ruled out in any heavier showers. This will continue through Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA through Saturday. Will see areas of fog across the waters Friday morning. SHORT TERM: The main concern through the Memorial Day weekend will be rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms. The best chance for any thunder will be Saturday afternoon into the early evening across the inner waters. Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels, so no headlines are anticipated at this time. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Dumont Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Farrar/Dumont/Hastings Marine...Farrar/Dumont/Hastings

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