Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 060809 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 409 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WARMER AND BECOMING MORE HUMID. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLANTIC BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THAT CIRRUS SHIELD SLIDING SE OF THE REGION W/PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AS WELL TODAY LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN THE DEWPOINTS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON SUNDAY. WE ARE TAKING 80S FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES COOLING. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD MAKES IT WAY INLAND TO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST(BANGOR AREA) COOLING THINGS OFF AFTER TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MILDER W/A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SETTING UP LATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGION. DECIDED TO GO W/AREAS OF FOG FOR THESE AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COME AN INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC LATER TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT INCHES ITS WAY CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN REACH THE DOWN EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWN EAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER WEATHER. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN ONES FOR SHALLOW FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE W/VFR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. BGR AND BHB COULD SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING W/A S WIND DEVELOPING ALLOWING FOR MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VSBYS. SHORT TERM: VFR TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LIFR POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CALM CONDITIONS W/LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. CONTINUED W/A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR THE WAVE HEIGHTS. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN AREAS OF FOG AND SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

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