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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 281414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM...ANOTHER BRIGHT AND SUNNY LATE WINTER DAY. STRONG HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER NY STATE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER TODAY. A SHALLOW INVERSION SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE 12Z
KCAR SOUNDING THAT WILL BE MIXED OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE AIR MASS
IS WARMER ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING (2-4C ABOVE THE
INVERSION) AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB