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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 260916
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
516 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across northern Maine this
afternoon then stall. The front will move back north in the
form of a warm front later tonight and Wednesday. A strong
cold front will cross the region Wednesday night through
early Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak cold front will move across northern Maine today then
stall across central portions of the forecast area. The front
will begin to lift back north in the form of a warm front later
tonight. An isolated shower is possible across northern areas
with the weak cold front this afternoon. Otherwise, partly sunny
skies are expected across the region today along with record
setting warmth. Areas of fog are also expected across Downeast
areas early this morning which could be locally dense along the
coast, with patchy fog across the remainder of the region.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected across the region
tonight along with isolated/scattered showers. Low clouds and
fog from the Gulf of Maine could again move inland across
Downeast areas tonight, with patchy fog across the remainder of
the region. High temperatures today will range from the upper
70s to mid 80s north, to the upper 80s to around 90 interior
Downeast with upper 70s to lower 80s along the Downeast coast.
Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid 50s
to around 60 across the forecast area.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure is expected to pass to the north of New England
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cold front will move across
the region behind the low early Thursday resulting in showers.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible ahead of the approaching
front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Hurricane Maria is
expected to pass out to sea well to the south of New England
late Thursday. Showers are expected to end during the day
Thursday as the cold front moves offshore.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A colder air mass will move across the region Friday into
Saturday as strong high pressure builds in from the west. The
high will approach from the west Sunday then crest over the
region Monday then slowly move to the east on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected from Saturday into
Wednesday under the strong high.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to VLIFR conditions are expected along the
Downeast coast with low clouds and fog early this morning.
Variable conditions will occur with any fog across the remainder
of the region early this morning. VFR conditions are expected
across the region later this morning into the afternoon.
Conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR levels across much of the
forecast area tonight, with LIFR/VLIFR conditions again possible
along the Downeast coast.

SHORT TERM: Expect MVFR/VFR conditions Wednesday into Wednesday
night. VFR conditions are expected Thursday into Saturday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas remains in
effect for the waters today through tonight due to a long
period south swell. Visibilities will be significantly reduced
in fog today through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids.
With sea surface temperature running in the mid 50s will lower
wind speed by 20 percent to account for high model bias. For
Waves: long period Swell from Hurricane Maria (6-7 feet/14
seconds) will continue to arrive on Wednesday and Thursday and
is expected to be the primary wave system across the Gulf of
Maine.. The Eastern Maine Coast will be partially protected from
the storm on Wednesday but as Maria moves to the East Thursday
some larger swell is possible. Longer period waves will shoal
and break in much deeper water than shorter period waves and it
is recommended that mariners exercise extra caution in shoaling
areas. A secondary southerly wind wave is expected Wednesday
which will become off-shore Thursday. Long period swell is
expected to slowly subside over the weekend. Will use the
Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to initialize the wave
grids. Will adjust wave heights lower by 1 foot to correct
expected high bias.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Currently long period swell from Maria which is running at
14-15 seconds/5-6 feet is entering the Gulf of Maine. The long
period swell is expected to persist through Wednesday as
Hurricane Marine moves out to sea well to the south of New
England Thursday.

Long period waves have a high impact in the surf zone, and can
run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves
resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into the
ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected. A high surf
advisory will therefore be issued.

Coastal flooding or beach erosion is not expected at this time.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Norcross/Mignone
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone