Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281414 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 914 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 915 AM...ANOTHER BRIGHT AND SUNNY LATE WINTER DAY. STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NY STATE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY. A SHALLOW INVERSION SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE 12Z KCAR SOUNDING THAT WILL BE MIXED OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS WARMER ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING (2-4C ABOVE THE INVERSION) AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS- CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY LATE SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. && .CLIMATE... THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MCW SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE CLIMATE...CB

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