Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 031801 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 101 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will cross the region today. High pressure will build across the region later Sunday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... Have slightly increased snow shower chances across mostly northern and eastern portions of the forecast area with this update. A surface trof will remain across the forecast area today while an upper level disturbance crosses the the region. Skies will remain cloudy to mostly cloudy across the forecast area today. Also expect scattered snow showers across the north and mountains, with isolated to scattered snow showers across the rest of the forecast area. Could also have isolated rain showers Downeast. Any snow accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. High temperatures will range from around 30 to the lower 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures, cloud cover and snow shower chances. Previous discussion... A couple of weak shortwaves will cross the region today. The second wave will come through this evening, resulting in more showers. This second wave is fairly weak so overall shower coverage will be isolated to scattered at best. The showers will wane after midnight, lingering longest over the higher terrain of the North Woods. Snow accumulations tonight will be an inch or less. Colder air will spread behind the aforementioned second shortwave, so overnight temperatures are expected to dip into the teens in the north and the lower and mid 20s south. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Overall a fairly quiet weather pattern. A weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft is expected to move across the area Sunday morning with perhaps some flurries or an isolated snow shower in the Saint John Valley. A ridge at the surface and aloft will build into the area Sunday night. The ridge aloft breaks down quickly Monday, but other than perhaps a bit more cloud cover Monday no precipitation is expected. The air mass will be near to just a bit colder than average for early December. Highs Sunday and Monday will remain below freezing acoss central and northern portions of the CWA with highs near freezing across the Down East region. Lows Sun night will be the coldest so far this season with single digits and low teens north to the mid teens to low 20s Down East. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... No high impact weather through Wednesday as another surface high builds into the region Mon night through Tue night. Dry weather with temperatures near to a bit below average through the middle of the week. A lead shortwave is expected to pass south of the region late Wednesday and Wed night. A deep upper trough digs toward the east coast late in the week. A low or series of surface lows are expected to affect the area Thursday into Friday, but there remain differences in the timing and location of the surface lows that would impact amounts and precipitation types. The model ensembles have a large spread with solutions that range from a strong secondary low that tracks into the Bay of Fundy or over Nova Scotia to solutions that keep most of the energy west of the area. High confidence that Thu into Fri will feature some precipitation, but the precipitation types remain uncertain. At this time would favor snow or mostly frozen precipitation across far northern Maine, with much more uncertainty across the southern half of the CWA. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally expect MVFR, with occasional IFR, conditions across the north and mountains this afternoon, with VFR/MVFR conditions Downeast. Expect MVFR conditions across the north and mountains tonight, with conditions improving to VFR levels Downeast. SHORT TERM: No significant storms are expected through the middle of next week. MVFR ceilings are possible Sun morning, mainly at the northern Taf sites as a weak disturbance moves through. Otherwise, predominately VFR through mid week. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, through late tonight. Visibilities could be locally reduced in any isolated showers through early afternoon. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below Small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday. There is the chance that a small craft advisory could be needed Monday night into Tuesday as another surface high builds toward the waters and the pressure gradient increases. && .CLIMATE... A total of 32.3 inches of snow has been observed so far this season at Caribou. It ranks as the 3rd most snow so early in the season behind only 1949 (33.2"), and 1974 (36.3"). The fall season (Sep 1-Nov 30) ranked as the 2nd warmest on record at Caribou with an average temperature of 47.3 degrees. The all- time record of 47.8 degrees from 2011 still stands. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Hastings Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Norcross/CB Marine...Norcross/CB Climate...CB

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