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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 122025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
325 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SMALL CLIPPER LOW AHEAD OF A NEW ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH
TONIGHT AND GIVE A FRESH DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND AWAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRESH SURGE OF BITTER COLD
ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR DOWNEAST AND
BECOME PARTIALLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. SOME FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
ANYTIME THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL THEN
BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DOWNEAST
LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE BIG STORY FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A COASTAL
STORM FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TWO PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRY TO
MERGE. THE LATEST TREND IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO JOG
THIS SYSTEM BACK A BIT TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH THIS TREND MOST
PRONOUNCED WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. AT THIS POINT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE LOW TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM NEAR
CAPE COD NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
KEEPS THE REGION ON THE COLD, SNOWY SIDE OF THE STORM WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER DOWNEAST LOCALS. THINKING IS FOR SNOW TO
BREAK OUT FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY FALLING MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP. WHILE
THE STORM IS STILL 3 DAYS OUT AND YET TO FORM EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE FOR 6+ INCHES TO FALL BY LATE SUNDAY DOWNEAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH.  THE COLD AIRMASS WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THIS BEING A FLUFFY,
LOW WATER CONTENT SNOW. THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT STORM
TRACK AND EVOLUTION GROWS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SNOW LOOKS TO WIND DOWN TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SUNDAY
EVENING AS THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THESE FLURRIES
MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
THROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE
SNOW BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY REDEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH, IF THIS
OCCURS, WOULD KEEP SNOW IN THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERHAPS IFR LATE TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LASTING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR NORTH ON
FRIDAY.


SHORT TERM:
VFR LOWERS TO MVFR THEN QUICKLY TO IFR AS SNOW MOVES IN FROM SW TO
NE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY.
PERIODS OF LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. LOOK FOR CEILINGS AND VIS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 30 KT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS VERY COLD
AIR MOVES IN.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL STORM
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NE JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY. WHILE IT
IS STILL EARLY, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NE WINDS TO REACH GALE
FORCE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS