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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 301016
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
616 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the area through Saturday. The
high will slowly lift northeast of the region Saturday night into
Sunday as low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
615 AM update...High clouds have thinned over the northern half of
our forecast area. This has allowed temperatures to drop and
patches of dense fog to form. The fog should dissipate over the
next hour or two. The forecast is in good shape, so no changes
were needed with this update.

Previous discussion...High pressure will remain draped across the
region today and tonight while a large upper low spins over the
Ohio Valley. This latter feature is already spreading high clouds
over New England this morning, so expect partly to mostly sunny
skies to prevail today. Northern areas will see the most sunshine.
Highs today will be in the lower to mid 60s areawide, though the
immediate coast will be a little cooler.

For tonight...clouds will increase in thickness and coverage from
south to north as moisture lifts into the area. A weak upper wave
will push off the New England coast and move across the Gulf of
Maine overnight. This wave and the influx of moisture will result in
an area of rain, which may just brush the Hancock County coast late
tonight. Otherwise, the dry weather will continue. Low temperatures
are a challenge, especially across the north where cloud cover will
be thinner and therefore may allow temperatures to drop early in the
night. The usual cold northern valleys will likely drop into the
lower to mid 30s, particularly in the North Woods, but expect most
spots will bottom out on either side of 40. Patchy fog will once
again develop in northern areas as well, though this too is
dependent on any cloud cover.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models late tngt have become a little less certain regarding how
strong blocking ovr QB and Maritime provs will hold ovr our FA
this weekend. The ovrall result is that we had to bump up PoPs for
potential ovrrng rnfl for Downeast ptns of the FA late Sat aftn
into erly Sun morn. Models ranged from the completely dry 00z
dtmnstc CanGem which keeps rnfl S of the region to the much wetter
21z SREF which actually brings sig rnfl to the Srn hlf of the FA
and measurable rnfl even into Nrn ptns of the FA. The 00z dtmnstc
GFS and ECMWF were between these to goal post solutions, with our
fcst grids similar. Subsequently, we go with max likely PoPs for
Downeast ptns of the FA Sat ngt before any ovrrng rnfl exits E
into the srn Maritimes.

Aft a break Sun morn, most models bring shwrs ahead and under a
weakening upper low movg S of our FA from the great lks from Sun
eve through at least Mon. Again, the CanGem model keeps our region
dry with shwrs remaining S of the FA. Kept max PoPs in the chc
range durg these pds given the uncertainties with the range of
model solutions.

Aft mild fcst hi temps Sat, Sun and and Mon should be a few deg
cooler each with more in the way of cldnss and potential rnfl
xpctd both days. Ovrngt lows Sat ngt and Sun ngt will also not be
as cool as recent past ngts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Longer range models differ in how quickly the remnants of the
great lakes upper low move ESE of our FA, so we do hold on to
lingering low chc PoPs Mon ngt into tue morn msly for Downeast
areas with msly the ECMWF model solution factoring into this
decision. So its quite possible Downeast areas may also be dry by
Mon ngt as well.

Otherwise, fair and dry conditions will be slowly building NW to
SE across the FA Tues thru Wed with fair conditions lasting thru
Thu as upper level hi pres builds ovr the region. Aft cooler hi
temps and low temps Tue and Tue ngt, temps Wed thru Thu should
become milder with lgt winds.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Any local IFR/LIFR conditions in patchy fog will lift
to VFR by 13z today, with VFR to prevail through 06z or so
tonight. IFR will once again be possible at FVE, CAR, and PQI
thereafter due to patchy fog.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR xpctd all TAF sites thru Sun, xcpt MVFR
clgs possible with lgt rn ovr Downeast sites Sat ngt and Sun morn.
another round of shwrs could produce brief pds of mvfr clgs all
TAF sites Sun ngt into Mon eve, with all sites steady VFR late
Mon ngt and Tues.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: High pressure will keep winds and waves below small craft
levels today and tonight. No headlines are anticipated.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No well defined pds of SCA xpctd this ptn of
the fcst, although winds and wvs may apch criteria ovr the outer
MZs attms, spcly Sat ngt and Sun and again Mon ngt into Tue morn.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hastings
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Hastings/VJN
Marine...Hastings/VJN