Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260916 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 516 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move across northern Maine this afternoon then stall. The front will move back north in the form of a warm front later tonight and Wednesday. A strong cold front will cross the region Wednesday night through early Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weak cold front will move across northern Maine today then stall across central portions of the forecast area. The front will begin to lift back north in the form of a warm front later tonight. An isolated shower is possible across northern areas with the weak cold front this afternoon. Otherwise, partly sunny skies are expected across the region today along with record setting warmth. Areas of fog are also expected across Downeast areas early this morning which could be locally dense along the coast, with patchy fog across the remainder of the region. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected across the region tonight along with isolated/scattered showers. Low clouds and fog from the Gulf of Maine could again move inland across Downeast areas tonight, with patchy fog across the remainder of the region. High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s north, to the upper 80s to around 90 interior Downeast with upper 70s to lower 80s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid 50s to around 60 across the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure is expected to pass to the north of New England Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cold front will move across the region behind the low early Thursday resulting in showers. Scattered thunderstorms are possible ahead of the approaching front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Hurricane Maria is expected to pass out to sea well to the south of New England late Thursday. Showers are expected to end during the day Thursday as the cold front moves offshore. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A colder air mass will move across the region Friday into Saturday as strong high pressure builds in from the west. The high will approach from the west Sunday then crest over the region Monday then slowly move to the east on Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected from Saturday into Wednesday under the strong high. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR to VLIFR conditions are expected along the Downeast coast with low clouds and fog early this morning. Variable conditions will occur with any fog across the remainder of the region early this morning. VFR conditions are expected across the region later this morning into the afternoon. Conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR levels across much of the forecast area tonight, with LIFR/VLIFR conditions again possible along the Downeast coast. SHORT TERM: Expect MVFR/VFR conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night. VFR conditions are expected Thursday into Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas remains in effect for the waters today through tonight due to a long period south swell. Visibilities will be significantly reduced in fog today through tonight. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids. With sea surface temperature running in the mid 50s will lower wind speed by 20 percent to account for high model bias. For Waves: long period Swell from Hurricane Maria (6-7 feet/14 seconds) will continue to arrive on Wednesday and Thursday and is expected to be the primary wave system across the Gulf of Maine.. The Eastern Maine Coast will be partially protected from the storm on Wednesday but as Maria moves to the East Thursday some larger swell is possible. Longer period waves will shoal and break in much deeper water than shorter period waves and it is recommended that mariners exercise extra caution in shoaling areas. A secondary southerly wind wave is expected Wednesday which will become off-shore Thursday. Long period swell is expected to slowly subside over the weekend. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to initialize the wave grids. Will adjust wave heights lower by 1 foot to correct expected high bias. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Currently long period swell from Maria which is running at 14-15 seconds/5-6 feet is entering the Gulf of Maine. The long period swell is expected to persist through Wednesday as Hurricane Marine moves out to sea well to the south of New England Thursday. Long period waves have a high impact in the surf zone, and can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected. A high surf advisory will therefore be issued. Coastal flooding or beach erosion is not expected at this time. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Norcross/Mignone Marine...Norcross/Mignone Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

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