Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 010136 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 836 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE CANCELED WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NEW JERSEY MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WINDS AND DEW POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN AREAS MUCH OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THIS TERM. THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THINGS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS SET. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRES TO SLIDE OFF THE DELMARVA ON MONDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTER AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OPEN. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/70-90% AND DROPPED POPS BACK TO CHANCE AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER WEST. STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN THIS BANDING COULD SHIFT NE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL ATTM IS EXPECTED ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/RATIOS AT LEAST 20:1 AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE EXPECTED TREND CONTINUES. THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST 10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER 24 HRS BUT SINCE WE HAVE DOUBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE ATTM AND THIS EVENT IS IN THE 4TH PERIOD, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF NNW WINDS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL HEADLINES AFTER THIS NEXT EVENT. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS NEXT COLD SHOT W/MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR-CALAIS REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS. A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE...THERE`S SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAST THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO LOWS WITH MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 NORTH AND STAY IN THE ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INVOLVES A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE ARISES BETWEEN WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES MAINE...OR IF AN OPEN WAVE SIMPLY MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AND ADD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON THURSDAY NIGHT IF WINDS DECREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT THE DEEP SUBZERO HOLE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS AS HIGHS. THE SECOND CLIPPER APPEARS TO BE SET FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN...ECMWF IS INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ON SOME OF THE AIR FIELDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB AND THEN THEY WILL SEE IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR W/SNOW AND WIND. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING OFF TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING W/SNOW AND WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUESDAY BUT NNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME TURBULENCE. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS HIGHER. A GALE WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE W/THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS NNW INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS. THOSE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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