Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 301016 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 616 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the area through Saturday. The high will slowly lift northeast of the region Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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615 AM update...High clouds have thinned over the northern half of our forecast area. This has allowed temperatures to drop and patches of dense fog to form. The fog should dissipate over the next hour or two. The forecast is in good shape, so no changes were needed with this update. Previous discussion...High pressure will remain draped across the region today and tonight while a large upper low spins over the Ohio Valley. This latter feature is already spreading high clouds over New England this morning, so expect partly to mostly sunny skies to prevail today. Northern areas will see the most sunshine. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 60s areawide, though the immediate coast will be a little cooler. For tonight...clouds will increase in thickness and coverage from south to north as moisture lifts into the area. A weak upper wave will push off the New England coast and move across the Gulf of Maine overnight. This wave and the influx of moisture will result in an area of rain, which may just brush the Hancock County coast late tonight. Otherwise, the dry weather will continue. Low temperatures are a challenge, especially across the north where cloud cover will be thinner and therefore may allow temperatures to drop early in the night. The usual cold northern valleys will likely drop into the lower to mid 30s, particularly in the North Woods, but expect most spots will bottom out on either side of 40. Patchy fog will once again develop in northern areas as well, though this too is dependent on any cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models late tngt have become a little less certain regarding how strong blocking ovr QB and Maritime provs will hold ovr our FA this weekend. The ovrall result is that we had to bump up PoPs for potential ovrrng rnfl for Downeast ptns of the FA late Sat aftn into erly Sun morn. Models ranged from the completely dry 00z dtmnstc CanGem which keeps rnfl S of the region to the much wetter 21z SREF which actually brings sig rnfl to the Srn hlf of the FA and measurable rnfl even into Nrn ptns of the FA. The 00z dtmnstc GFS and ECMWF were between these to goal post solutions, with our fcst grids similar. Subsequently, we go with max likely PoPs for Downeast ptns of the FA Sat ngt before any ovrrng rnfl exits E into the srn Maritimes. Aft a break Sun morn, most models bring shwrs ahead and under a weakening upper low movg S of our FA from the great lks from Sun eve through at least Mon. Again, the CanGem model keeps our region dry with shwrs remaining S of the FA. Kept max PoPs in the chc range durg these pds given the uncertainties with the range of model solutions. Aft mild fcst hi temps Sat, Sun and and Mon should be a few deg cooler each with more in the way of cldnss and potential rnfl xpctd both days. Ovrngt lows Sat ngt and Sun ngt will also not be as cool as recent past ngts. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Longer range models differ in how quickly the remnants of the great lakes upper low move ESE of our FA, so we do hold on to lingering low chc PoPs Mon ngt into tue morn msly for Downeast areas with msly the ECMWF model solution factoring into this decision. So its quite possible Downeast areas may also be dry by Mon ngt as well. Otherwise, fair and dry conditions will be slowly building NW to SE across the FA Tues thru Wed with fair conditions lasting thru Thu as upper level hi pres builds ovr the region. Aft cooler hi temps and low temps Tue and Tue ngt, temps Wed thru Thu should become milder with lgt winds. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Any local IFR/LIFR conditions in patchy fog will lift to VFR by 13z today, with VFR to prevail through 06z or so tonight. IFR will once again be possible at FVE, CAR, and PQI thereafter due to patchy fog. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR xpctd all TAF sites thru Sun, xcpt MVFR clgs possible with lgt rn ovr Downeast sites Sat ngt and Sun morn. another round of shwrs could produce brief pds of mvfr clgs all TAF sites Sun ngt into Mon eve, with all sites steady VFR late Mon ngt and Tues. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: High pressure will keep winds and waves below small craft levels today and tonight. No headlines are anticipated. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No well defined pds of SCA xpctd this ptn of the fcst, although winds and wvs may apch criteria ovr the outer MZs attms, spcly Sat ngt and Sun and again Mon ngt into Tue morn. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Hastings/VJN Marine...Hastings/VJN

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