Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 310337 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1137 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 11:30 PM UPDATE...ONE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY. UPDATE FORECAST TO GO 70% CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING THEN 60% IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE NAM12... GFS40 AND THE ECMWF. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF. OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA. IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM. CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL DURING THE SHORT RANGE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING VERY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9 SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET. TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS/MIGNONE/MCB SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN

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