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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 101028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TWO UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEAR TERM. THE FIRST IS CROSSING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING, FIRING
UP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SNOW MAKING INTO FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, JUST EXPECT
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CROWN TO THE MID 30S DOWNEAST.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY TREKKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PROVINCES, WILL HAVE A BIT MORE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WITH IT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE
COAST LATE TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO BRING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE. THEREFORE, EXPECT WE`LL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE SNOW WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN AREAS MID- TO LATE-EVENING
AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF LGT SNFL WILL MOVE E OUT OF THE FA TUE MORN...LEAVING
IN ITS WAKE MSLY CLDY SKIES WITH SCT SN SHWRS SPCLY ACROSS THE N
HLF OF THE FA. HI TEMPS TUE AFTN SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 30S
N AND EVEN LOWER 40S S BEHIND A WEAK WARM OCCLUSION. AFT A RELATIVELY
MILD NGT TUE NGT...MOST MODELS BRING A SHARP COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN
INTO NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY WED MORN...TO ALG THE
DOWNEAST COAST WED AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A SIG WV OF LOW PRES IS XPCTD TO FORM ALG THIS FRONT
OVR THE MID ATLC STATES AS A MDTLY STRONG S/WV ALF FROM THE
MIDWEST MOVES EWRD. OF ALL THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST AND FURTHEST N WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM TAKING THE
SFC LOW FROM THE SE NEW COAST INTO WRN NOVA SCOTIA WED NGT INTO
THU AS THE UPPER TROF TAKES A NEG TILT AND A 700 MB LOW FORMS
CROSSING OUR FA...WHICH WOULD BRING HVY SNFL AS FAR N AS NRN
ME...WITH THE HEAVIEST CORRIDOR OVR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE OPNL
GFS...CANGEM AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSM AND LATEST AVAILABLE SREF IS
WEAKER WITH THE S/WV ALF AS WELL AS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER S
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BEING S O NOVA SCOTIA BY THU MORN.
ALL OF THESE OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE CANGEM...A MODEL KNOWN
TO BE BULLISH WITH LLVL WARM ADVCN AND A MORE NRN AND WRN STORM
TRACK THAN EVEN THE ECMWF IN MOST SIMILAR SCENARIOS...CONT THE
MARCH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LLVL COLD ADVCN SLOWLY SWRD
WED NGT... KEEPING THE MOST ACTIVE OVRRNG ZONE MSLY ACROSS THE S
HLF OF THE FA.

OUR SOLUTION TO THIS DILEMMA WAS TO BLEND ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH 60 PERCENT OF ALL THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE QPF
BLENDED...WHICH RESULTED IN MORE OF A GRADIENT TOWARD LESSER LIQ
EQUIV QPF ACROSS THE N...BUT NOT AS SHARP OF A CUT-OFF AS ADVERTISED
BY THE NON-ECMWF MODELS. THIS ALLOWED US TO INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AND TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE N...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL DEFER WATCH DECISIONS
TO LATER TDY AFT REVIEWING A COUPLE OF MORE MODEL RUNS...SPCLY
CONSIDERING MOST OF THIS EVENT FOR OUR FA IS LATE PERIOD 5 INTO
PD 7 OF THE FCST. IF THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS WERE
CONSISTENT THRU MON...IT WOULD APPEAR LIKELY THAT WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED FOR DOWNEAST NWRD THRU E AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA FOR
LATE WED AFTN INTO THU BY MID MON AFTN. IF 00Z ECMWF BECOMES THE
MODEL CHOICE WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FA...WHILE THE REST OF THE OPNL GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS ONLY
DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA REQUIRING A WATCH.

IN ANY EVENT...SN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS ACROSS THE FA TUE
AFTN AND END LATER THU NGT. HI TEMPS MAY OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY
WED BEFORE TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AFTN THRU WED NGT. THU SHOULD
BE A COLD BLUSTERY DAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW...MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK ON FRI...WHICH WILL BEGIN BRISK AND COLD.
THEN MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF CLIPPER S/WVS AFFECTING OUR FA
FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH...WHAT APPEARS AT THIS POINT WILL BE MSL
SN SHWRS. ONLY THE ECMWF ADVERTISES THE POSSIBILITY OF SIG SNFL
FOR NRN PTNS OF THE FA SAT WITH A MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION. TO ERLY TO TELL WHAT SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT
ATTM...SO WE KEPT POPS IN THE HI CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW. MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE NEXT ARCTIC LIKE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM CNTRL CAN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH
BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PREVAILING MVFR
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MSLY ACROSS NRN
TAF SITES THU MORN IN FALLING SN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES BEGIN MVFR...
THEN NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR TUE AFTN AND DOWNEAST SITES TO
VFR. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR TUE NGT INTO WED MORN...WITH IFR IN SNFL
SPREADING SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BEGINNING ERLY WED AFTN
ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES...REACHING KFVE BY MID EVE. ALL SITES THEN
CONT IFR OVRNGT WED INTO THU...IMPROVING TO MVFR NRN SITES AND VFR
DOWNEAST SITES THU NGT. MSLY VFR SHOULD CONT ALL SITES ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TODAY, BUT THEY
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
MAINE COAST. HOWEVER, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, SO NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS...WITH NE TO NW WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO GALE POTENTIAL WED NGT THRU THU WITH THE APCH AND
PASSAGE OF LOW PRES TO THE S OF THE WATERS. WENT WITH MODEL BLENDED
WINDS AND KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN