Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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595 FXUS61 KCAR 031245 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 845 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach this morning and cross the area this afternoon. An upper low will move across the region on Friday followed by high pressure on Saturday. A cold front will push into the area Sunday and stall over the area Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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845 AM Update: Some thunderstorms have already developed near our CWA, passing just north of the Saint John Valley. The 12z KCAR sounding measured around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE this morning, with 37 kts bulk shear and 1.16 inch PWATs. Lapse rates are also already increasing early this morning, reaching over 6 C/km already for 700-500 mb. With these ingredients in place, have increased the forecast for this afternoon to include damaging winds and a chance for small hail. Previous Discussion: ...The primary concern in the near term is the threat of severe thunderstorms today.... Upper level trough to our west will move east and cross the region this afternoon. The atmosphere is expected to destabilize in advance of the approaching upper trough and associated surface cold front. This will result in scattered thunderstorms developing, mainly after noon time. The primary threat with any storms today appears to be the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of northern and downeast Maine in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms today. Today has the potential to be the first widespread severe weather event of the season, so please monitor the latest forecasts on the potential severe weather threat later today. The severe weather threat should quickly wind down early this evening as the cold front moves east. A few showers may linger into early tonight, otherwise expect partial clearing late tonight. Patchy late night fog will be possible. Lows tonight will generally range from around 50 across the north and mid to upper 50s for the Bangor region and Downeast areas. A 500 MB low center will cross the region during Friday. Instabilty associated with the cold pool aloft and diurnal heating will result in the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly across northern and central areas. Freezing levels will be lowering, so will have to watch for the potential of some small hail with any isolated thunderstorms. Friday will feature somewhat cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs will range from around 70 across the north and the mid to upper 70s for the Bangor region and Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The upper low which crosses the area Friday will be sliding southeast of the region Friday night as high pressure builds to our southwest. This will bring a mostly clear and seasonably cool night Friday night. High pressure to our south on Saturday will bring a mostly sunny and warm day as highs reach just above 80 inland. A cold front will approach from the northwest Saturday night as surface high pressure to our south slides east into the open Atlantic. The gradient between the departing high and the approaching cold front will bring an increasing southwesterly breeze. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will press into the area Sunday with showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly over the north. The front will weaken and stall over the area Sunday night as it tries to press south into high pressure to our southeast, as this high merges with the subtropical high. A chance of showers will continue Sunday night with the front stalled across the area. Some of the forecast models are showing a weather disturbance tracking along the front on Monday. This may continue the chance of showers across the area with thunderstorms possible during the midday and afternoon. The front will weaken and dissipate on Tuesday although some isolated showers will continue to be possible, mostly over southern areas. By Wednesday, very weak high pressure will build over the region. This high will likely not be strong enough to clear all the moisture over the region so some clouds and isolated spotty showers may still be possible with variable cloudiness and a chance of isolated showers continuing into Thursday. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR all terminals. Conditions may briefly lower to MVFR/IFR in TSRA this afternoon. S to SW wind around 10 kt today. Wind will be gusty in any afternoon thunderstorms today. VFR conditions are expected tonight, except patchy fog is possible late tonight with MVFR or lower possible all terminals. W to NW less that 10 kt tonight. VFR on Friday, except MVFR is possible at times in any scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. NW wind 10 to 15 kt with G20 KT. SHORT TERM: Friday night...VFR. Light NW wind. Saturday...VFR. Light W to SW wind. Saturday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR over the north late. SW wind. Chance for some SW wind shear, especially over the north. Sunday...MVFR north, possibly lowering to IFR at times. VFR south. SW wind, becoming light and variable over the north. Sunday night...MVFR north. VFR possibly becoming MVFR south. light and variable wind. Monday...MVFR. Light and variable wind.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Wind/seas will below below SCA levels through tonight. patchy fog may reduce visibility to 1 to 3 NM tonight. SHORT TERM: SW winds may approach 25 kt in a few gusts late Sunday into Sunday night. Otherwise, wind and seas should remain below SCA through early next week. Humid air over the colder water will likely result in some mist and fog Sunday into early next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/TWD Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...AStrauser/TWD/Bloomer Marine...AStrauser/TWD/Bloomer