Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281255 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 855 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will intensify along the New England coast early this morning, then cross the Gulf of Maine this afternoon. High pressure will briefly build later tonight into Saturday morning. Weak low pressure will move across the state later Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure builds Sunday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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8:55 am update...The secondary low is now taking shape in the vicinity of Cape Cod. The low will move across the Gulf of Maine today and exit to the east of Nova Scotia tonight. An all rain event across the Down East Region, and some of the rain may come down at a decent clip at times as some heavier returns are developing south of the area. To the north, the snow is highly elevation dependent. Based on calls to weather spotters and web cams it is all rain at elevations below 800 feet and a mix of rain/snow from about 800-1200 feet, with mostly snow above 1200 feet. As heavier returns move into the area the snow levels may lower for a time. Expect that any accums at the lower elevations will be minor, but several inches of snow will likely accumulate at elevations above 1000-1200 feet. Will make adjustments to the winter weather advisory statements to include elevation. We have also issued a coastal flood statement for minor splash over around the time of high tide this morning as the wave action looks quite impressive on the web cams and seas are building rapidly ahead of the approaching high tide. Previous discussion... A vertically stacked upper low in northern New York features a decaying surface low. Cyclogenesis is currently underway along the southern New England coast. This will become the primary low in the next several hours and quickly deepen. The deepening low will generate very strong east winds along the coast this morning with gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range. The wind advisory remains in place. These winds may down a few trees and cause some power outages. Heavy rain will go along with these winds. As much as an inch to an inch and a half of rain could fall today. Further inland, the concern will be snow starting as far south as the Dexter and Milo around and eastward to southern Aroostook. Have left the advisory in place but extended it to 8pm this evening when the snow should be exited into New Brunswick. The heaviest accumulations appear to be in remote areas from Greenville to the Katahdin region where some 7 inches of heavy wet snow is possible. There`s still some concern about adding zone 31 in southern Piscataquis County to the advisory as several inches of snow seems reasonable towards Sebec and Brownville. With temperatures in the low to mid 30s, the keys to accumulation will be elevation and snowfall intensity to overcome warmth in the boundary layer. Further north, ridging in the Canadian Maritimes will likely keep precip out of the Crown of Maine for this event. Have leaned towards NAM12 surface temps for today`s grids. For tonight, the low will quickly move east and cloudy skies will remain over the area with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Storm system wl be exiting into the Maritimes Sat mrng with vry brief ridge axis nosing into CWA drg the day. Srly flow wl draw in wrmr temps in the aftn with maxes in the lwr 40s acrs nrn zones and nr 50 for Downeast. Next system wl appch fm the west aft 12z with temps low enuf to possibly start off as a rain/snow mix acrs the Allagash as H5 s/wv appchs. Fropa wl occur Sat night with just a few showers drg the ovrngt. Nw flow expected on Sun with stratocu expected bulk of the day bfr hipres builds in Sun night. Maxes on Sun wl be just slightly cooler than Sat. Mins Mon morning wl be colder than Sun as skies begin to clear. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Hipres and dry wx can be expected into Tue mrng bfr high builds into the Maritimes. Next system wl once again mv in fm Canada Tue aftn with front crossing CWA on Wed with showers ending fm west to east by the afternoon. Some discrepancies in med range guidance past mid- week as GFS is more progressive aloft and keeps unsettled wx in thru the end of the pd whereas EC is dry. For now hv just kept 20- 30 pops in thru Thur ngt with temps right arnd normal. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR conditions will develop this morning towards BGR and BHB with heavy rain and IFR cigs. LLWS is expected with 50 kt easterly winds at FL020 near the coast. Further inland, sites such as GNR, MLT and HUL will have LIFR to VLIFR vis due to snow...which could be heavy at times...especially around GNR. Northern terminals such as PQI, CAR and FVE will be VFR this morning and trend towards MVFR cigs later this afternoon and evening. SHORT TERM: MVFR possible across northern terminals Sat morning in stratocu in NW flow in wake of departing system. MVFR/IFR expected on Sat/Sat night as next system moves in. VFR will return Sunday afternoon through the end of the period under high pressure. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Gale warning until midnight. Winds are increasing and the the seas are building rapidly this morning with gale conditions now underway. After the gale, an SCA will be required into Saturday morning. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions may be met briefly on Sat morning with winds gusting to near 25kts in wake of fropa. Seas and winds may be marginal for SCA criteria Sat night with remainder of the period remaining below small craft levels.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ003>006-010. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCW Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...CB/MCW/Farrar Marine...CB/MCW/Farrar is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.