Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271420 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 920 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE 0915 EST: LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HEAVIEST BANDING HAS NOW MOVED INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STILL SOME LIGHT BANDING OVER EASTERN AREAS BUT EXPECT THIS TO MOVE OUT OVER NEXT HOUR WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH OR LESS. SO WILL REMOVE ALL WINTER HEADLINES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE LOW IS TRACKING TO A POSITION JUSTSOUTH OF YARMOUTH NS...AND WILL RAPIDLY SHOOT ACROSS THE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE MORNING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED AFTER 7AM. COLDER TOP CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES AT THIS TIME IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE BANGOR AREA AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS EASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. IN THIS CORRIDOR...ACCUMULATIONS REACHING 14 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH MANY 10 INCH REPORTS ALREADY. AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. SLEET AND FROZEN PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE SE CORNER OF WASHINGTON COUNTY AND WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. WINDS WILL CAUSE LOCAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING AND DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. NORTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY LATER THIS MORNING AND FURTHER DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND AROUND FREEZING FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. SINCE THE WINDS DROP OFF TOWARDS CALM THIS EVENING...IT SETS THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD PRODUCE SOME OF THE FIRST SUBZERO READINGS OF THE YEAR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH SINGLE DIGIT READINGS AND MAY NEED TO GO LOWER AS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE SITUATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ALOFT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRI MORNING QUICKLY SCOOTS EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. SFC...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST FRI MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SAT MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUN. SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SAT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE DECEMBER. HIGH TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MAINE FRI AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A FAST FLOW REGIME DOMINATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT LIFTS NE AND WILL SET UP AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUN ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MON MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOW SQUALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE WITH DRY/COLD WEATHER. THE HIGH QUICKLY RETREATS TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING EVENT TUE NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW REGIME THE MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR TO IFR IN SNOW WILL BECOME MVFR ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND BECOME VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE A FACTOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR...BUT DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRI. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUN. MOSTLY MVFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE GALE TO 11AM WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY JUST UNDER STORM FORCE AT JONESPORT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE GALE WILL TRANSITION TO AN SCA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED FRI AND SAT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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