Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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585 FXUS61 KCAR 271838 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 238 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure in Labrador will build south into the region tonight through Saturday. Low pressure will gradually approach from the south on Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The remnants of the occluded front and associated precip has moved out of the area. The front will then return southward in the form of a back door cold front...moving across the forecast area tonight into Wednesday AM as the Labrador high builds and low pressure in the western Great Lakes slides south towards the Ohio Valley. There won`t be much, if any, precip with the front as it moves south, but there will be persistent low clouds in a moist east flow. Have reduced pops tonight and tomorrow and took out mention of drizzle and fog for most areas. The exception is the western mountains where upslope will be a factor. Also maintained slight chance pops along the coast tomorrow with low pressure moving south of the area and a very modest amount of instability in the low clouds persisting along the coast all day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Closed upr low wl be drifting acrs the Cornbelt at the start of the short term pd. This places CWA under upr lvl ridge axis along with nerly flow at the sfc as sfc hipres sits acrs Quebec. Low clds look to get trapped under low-lvl inversion but with vry little frcg expected not anticipating drizzle attm. CWA is in the same pattern thru the end of the week. 565dm H5 low drifting arnd the Oh Vly for 48 hours with ridge axis contg it`s hold acrs the state. Temps thru the end of the week wl be right arnd normal values.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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On Saturday, a cutoff upper level low pressure should be positioned over the Ohio Valley, and inch northeast to far SW Ontario on Sunday and perhaps toward us on Monday as it weakens. As this occurs, look for increasing rain chances, although the north edge of rain is very much in question especially Saturday and Sunday. It may or may not make it to our forecast area. For now, went with a chance of rain for Downeast Saturday, with a chance of rain over all of Eastern Maine for Sunday, and then a chance of showers for all of Eastern Maine on Monday. Temperatures will run pretty close to average Saturday through Monday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs will be the predominant condition...except some marginal IFR cigs are possible south of HUL this evening. These cigs may continue into Wednesday morning towards BGR and BHB. SHORT TERM: MVFR restrictions possible Thu morning with low cigs. Then slowly rising to become VFR by mid-late morning. VFR expected into the early part of the weekend high pressure dominates but may see MVFR late in the period, mainly for southern terminals.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Have issued an SCA for the outer waters as it looks like both winds and seas will meet criteria...even after trimming wind gusts due to stability. Will end the advisory at 00Z for now...but it may need to be extended into Wednesday evening. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will increase through Thur evening as low pressure crosses south of the waters. Seas will remain above 5 feet across the outer waters through the early part of Friday with wind gusts remaining marginal.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Foisy Aviation...MCW/Farrar Marine...MCW/Farrar

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