Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180859 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 459 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO TAPPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ZONE 10 AND 31. UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND ECWMF THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR HRLY TEMPS/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/AND POP. USED THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...20 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NEAR LABRADOR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR LABRADOR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALTHOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MAINE EARLY IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. VSBY AND CIGS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER AFTER SUNRISE...BECOMING MVFR BY MID MRNG...VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB WITH PATCHY FOG. VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MRNG. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006- 010-011-031-032. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA

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