Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250458 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1258 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain southeast of the region through Thursday. A cold front will cross the region Friday. High pressure builds Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update... Surface high pressure will remain southeast of the region overnight, while an upper level disturbance tracks northwest of Maine. Generally expect partly cloudy skies north, with mostly clear skies across central/Downeast portions of the forecast area overnight. Could also have patchy fog overnight, with the better chances along the Downeast coast. Overnight low temperatures will range from around 60 to the lower 60s across the forecast area. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures and cloud cover. Previous Discussion... A weak disturbance in the form of a very shallow 500mb trof moving thru the ridge will cross the CWA Thurs afternoon. This will bring the risk for some shwrs and perhaps a stray t-storm to the northern areas, mainly north of a Greenville-Houlton line. Kept POPs limited to Chance and kept QPF fairly low due to the likely isolated nature of the precip and the continuing wide spread in model solutions for QPF Thurs PM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday night will be warm with a thermal ridge along and a southwest surface flow. Have gone above guidance for lows in the mid to upper 60s and high humidity. With an approaching frontal system and the potential instability on Thursday night, have gone with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms for much of the forecast area. Patchy fog and low clouds will tend to develop later in the night with an onshore flow and continue into early morning. The fog and low clouds will persist longer on Friday along the coast. Will continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday with the approaching cold front. The chances of any stronger thunderstorms remains in question due to the timing of the surface front and the upper level shortwave ejecting from the Great Lakes region. Shear is impressive, but CAPE is not. The best combination of CAPE and shear currently appears to be in northeast Aroostook County in the afternoon with the cold frontal passage, but confidence is not high enough to add enhanced wording at this time. Once the front is through, high pressure builds Friday night and Saturday with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure centered over the area will produce a relatively chilly Saturday night. Can`t rule out readings near 40F in the Allagash. Most the forecast area will have lows in the 40s except Bangor and the Down East region where low 50s are anticipated. Pleasant highs in the 70s with low humidity continues Sunday. A frontal system crosses Sunday night into Monday with timing still uncertain. Due to the timing uncertainties, did not specify thunderstorms for Monday afternoon. Regardless of the model, high pressure is expected to return Monday night into Tuesday night. Another front is possible towards Wednesday with a chance of showers towards the Crown of Maine. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Variable conditions could occur with any patchy fog overnight, then with any showers/thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected overnight through Thursday. Have also included low level wind shear overnight. SHORT TERM: Most of the period will be VFR. The exceptions will be later Thursday night into Friday morning when IFR ceilings are possible. These IFR ceilings may persist much of the day towards BHB. Thunderstorms are another concern Thursday night and Friday. Patchy valley fog is possible towards sunrise on Sunday morning.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through early Thursday, though conditions could begin to approach small craft advisory levels later Thursday afternoon and evening. Visibilities could be reduced in patchy fog overnight through Thursday. SHORT TERM: Fog will develop Thursday night and continue Friday. Winds will be near 20kts on Thursday night with seas in the 4 to 5 ft range...but decrease Friday into Saturday. A thunderstorm or two is possible Friday afternoon.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Kredensor Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Norcross/MCW Marine...Norcross/MCW

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