Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 202255 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 555 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THEY WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BETWEEN 7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS WHICH MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE AND CAUSE ROADS TO QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY AS THEY COME THROUGH. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH 700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A 10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN

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