Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220526 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 126 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Decaying low pressure in Quebec will slowly drift towards northern Maine while a new area of low pressure organizes south of Cape Cod tonight and intensifies south of the state on Saturday. The low will move south of Nova Scotia Saturday night and high pressure will build on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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125 am update... Steady snow has exited advisory area at this time with dangerous roads and numerous accidents reported. A slushy and wet 3-5 inches of snow has fallen across northern Aroostook with hrly snowfall rates of 1+ inches per hour earlier tonight. Another s/wv is rotating thru southwest Quebec at this time with another area of lighter snow poised to enter CWA shortly. Expect northern Aroostook to see an addn/l inch of accumulation thru daybreak with this area of snow, lkly leading to totals of btwn 4-6 inches by the time the snow winds down in the aftn. Hv dropped pops thru the bulk of the ovrngt in the northwest as snow looks to be hit or miss thru daybreak. Only other chg was to lower qpf amnts btwn 06z and 12z. Orgnl Disc: The big concern for this evening is a vigorous shortwave trough rotating around the closed upper low in Quebec. It will affect areas north of the Katahdin region and Houlton this evening into the overnight hours. There`s a lot of lift with this feature as evidenced by omega fields. There is some upper level instability and the LFQ of a strong upper jet will enter northern Maine later this evening. Although temperatures are currently in the upper 30s to lower 40s in northern zones, evaporative and dynamic cooling of the column will generate a fairly quick changeover from rain to snow as the warm boundary layer is eliminated. There is good omega in a rather high dendritic layer later this evening and snowfall rates over an inch an hour are possible as the shortwave crosses. The fact that the heavier snow will be falling at night with these snowfall rates means roads may become slippery at times overnight. Overall snowfall of 3-5 inches in northern Aroostook County and the potential for slick roads led to the decision to issue a winter weather advisory for zones one and two. Snow will linger in northern zones Saturday morning as the remnants of the Quebec low become an inverted trough connected to the offshore low. Further accumulation after daybreak Saturday is not likely with lower snowfall rates and snow will gradually change to rain as the boundary layer warms again. The snow will mostly be a factor for areas north of Greenville to Millinocket and Hodgdon. South of this line, snow may mix with the rain at times late tonight, but no accumulation is expected as lows will be 34 to 37F. Rain will fall tonight into Saturday morning and gradually taper off Saturday afternoon. It will be a chilly day for the entire region with highs only reaching the upper 30s to near 40F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As the short term starts at 00z Mon/8PM Sun, the last remnants of the system should be departing, with most likely areas of rain and/or snow along the eastern border and also in the northern/western high terrain. As the system moves away, weak high pressure bringing calming winds could allow for some fog across the area through Sun AM. At least patchy sunshine is expected across the entire CWA Sun PM, and it may become mostly sunny or clear south of the Katahdin and Moosehead region. Temps will be near seasonal norms on Sunday. A weak cold front then looks to approach from the NW Sun evening, and bring some showers to the Crown of Maine. Precip appears likely to start as rain showers, then taper to a mix or snow showers. But all models show the precip associated with his front drying up before sunrise Mon, with the sfc boundary making it to the Bangor metro by 15z Mon, and off the coast shortly thereafter. Some clouds are likely to linger behind the front on Mon. The earlier passage of the front will lead to a cooler day Mon up north. But for Bangor metro and Downeast, it appears likely to be just as warm if not warmer thanks to SW`ly winds ahead of the front, but the timing of the front will be key to highs on Mon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Medium range models are suggesting a moderating temperature trend by mid to late week with temperatures possibly rising to above normal levels late next week. But before that we will be dealing with the potential for some rain Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure develops along the southeast coast of the United States and then tracks northeast and weakens through Wednesday. This would bring the potential for some rain to the region, especially across downeast areas. There could be a few showers around on Thursday as an upper trough swings across. Drier weather will return on Friday. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR across northern terminals in low cigs at HUL, CAR and FVE next 24 hours. Expect cigs will lift to low MVFR at PQI after 12z. Any -sn will likely mix with rain early in the afternoon for northern terminals. After 21z VCSH is expected at all northern sites thru end of taf valid time. At BGR and BHB, expect MVFR today along with ocnl IFR. Light rain expected thru at least mid-morning. SHORT TERM: MVFR to IFR conditions will be widespread Sat night as some low clouds are expected to persist, and areas of fog may develop in light winds. Clouds should break up and fog will dissipate Sun AM, allowing a return to VFR conditions, and remain clear thru Sun evening. Low to mid-level clouds and showers with a cold front may cause some MVFR to patchy IFR conditions for KHUL thru KFVE Sun night, while fog is possible for KBHB and KBGR ahead of the front Sun night and Mon AM.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: 630 PM Update...we optd to go with an SCA for outer waters for marginal wind gusts of 25 kt and wv hts upwards to 7 ft for a relatively narrow window between 4 and 11 am Sat morn. Orgnl Disc...There is a chance of SCA conditions ANZ051 from Schoodic Point to Stonington on Saturday morning as low pressure moves south of the waters. Confidence is higher in seas above 5 feet on Saturday than wind gusts over 25 kts. Will await 00Z guidance to get a better look and revisit the decision. SHORT TERM: Both winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA criteria levels Sat night thru Mon. The biggest risk to safe navigation offshore may be some dense fog possible Sun night into Mon AM ahead of a cold front.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001-002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050- 051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar/MCW Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Duda Aviation...Farrar/MCW/Kredensor Marine...Farrar/MCW/Kredensor

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