Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 142013 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 313 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in and crest just north of the area tonight into Monday. High pressure will begin to slide east of the area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1040mb sfc ridge stretched fm the OH valley into srn Quebec with sunny skies and cold temps acrs the area. Northwest winds continue this aftn and wl lkly diminish overnight as high builds east. Good radn`l cooling conds wl allow temps to drop into the minus teens acrs the north and arnd 0 along the coast. Digging upr low acrs the upr Midwest tomorrow morning may spread high cirrus acrs the CWA in the afternoon in sw flow aloft. Temps wl still be around 10 degrees blo normal on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will weaken over the region Monday Night. Low pressure will then approach from the west Tuesday and spread light snow across the State Wednesday with most of the light snow expected to occur in coastal and interior Downeast areas. For snow amounts have blended QPF from GFS and ECMWF and used snow ratios with snow amount tool. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue to move away from the region Wednesday Night. Snow showers will persist over the far north into Thursday as a week trough passes to the north. Expect weak high pressure over the area Friday. A cold front is then expected to move down from the north Saturday and then become stationary over the region Sunday. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours with only thin high clouds expected. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Monday Night and Tuesday. IFR/MVFR conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday. VFR conditions are expected Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA remains in effect for the outer waters into Monday morning. Seas in the intracoastal zones will be 2 to 4 feet through Monday with winds gusting just blo 25kts. Freezing spray is expected beginning late tonight and into Monday morning for all waters. SCA may need to be extended thru the day Monday as seas remain aoa 5 feet, mainly for the outer waters, as the primary wave system begins to transition to more of a northeast wind wave late. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained winds for Monday Night through late Wednesday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For waves: For Monday Night expect the primary wave system to be northeasterly wind wave (5 feet5/6 seconds) with a secondary southeasterly swell system (3 feet/9 seconds). Both of these waves systems are expected to subside during the day Tuesday. East to southeasterly long period swell is expected to be the predominate wave system Wednesday. Will use the NWPS to initialize wave heights. Expect freezing spray to continue into Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Farrar/Mignone Marine...Farrar/Mignone Hydrology...

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