Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180219 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1019 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region tonight. A warm front will approach tonight and lift across the region on Tuesday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night. High pressure returns for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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1000 PM Update: Hi cld cvr has now nearly entirely eclipsed our FA, so for now temps have lvld off from falling. IR Sat imagery does show another break in clds ovr Srn QB that could make it into wrn ptns of the FA ovrngt before thicker cld cvr with rn arrives by daybreak, so cannot say for sure whether temps will fall a little more or fcst lows remain unchgd for now. For now, we moved ovrngt lows in the 1-2am tm frame, and have temps slowly rising aftwrds. Orgnl Disc: The cold front has crossed the forecast area and has entered the Gulf of Maine. The high will build through tonight with increasing clouds for most of the area later tonight. Expect lows will dip to the low to mid 30s in the Crown of Maine before the clouds increase, but only drop to the mid to upper 40s towards Bangor and the Down East coast. The cold front will return northward as a warm front Tuesday. With the stable nature of the precip and the frontal inversion, have changed the description of the precip to rain and lowered highs for Tuesday from previous forecast cycles. Expect upper 40s in the Saint John Valley and upper 50s for Bangor and Ellsworth. Rainfall should generally be under a tenth of an inch on Tuesday. Have used a model blend for QPF...discounting the NAM and its elevated instability. Light rain and some drizzle seems more likely. The increase in winds under the inversion is also notable for later Tuesday and have gone with gusts as high as 25 mph in northern zones. A LLJ with winds of 60-70kt under H850 will be over northern zones later Tuesday, but it looks too stable to mix these winds to the surface during this forecast period. Some patchy fog is expected to develop in the warm sector by Tuesday evening...mostly for the upslope regions of Piscataquis County.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... It`ll be a rainy start to the period as rain will be ongoing out ahead of an approaching front. A strong 850mb jet will lift northward in advance of the front, helping to spread moisture into the region. This also results in two concerns: the potential for gusty winds and briefly heavy rainfall. Convective potential looks minimal given scant instability. This lack of convection will help limit optimal mixing of stronger winds to the surface. Regardless, even without thunderstorms, it will still be a breezy night. PWATs will approach 1.5 inches, so heavy rainfall is possible, mainly across northern areas. Any heavy rain should be brief, though, and additional rainfall amounts overnight will be a quarter of an inch or less. The front will push offshore around daybreak Wednesday, followed by a drier airmass. As such, expect a dry day with sunshine returning by afternoon. Temperatures will actually be warmer on Wednesday than Tuesday by a good 10 degrees. The dry weather will continue overnight Wednesday night, but the threat for rain returns on Thursday along with another frontal passage. The bulk of the precipitation will occur the afternoon. Increased cloud cover will keep temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Looking ahead toward the end of the week, our focus will be on a large trough of low pressure approaching from the midwest and its interaction with a tropical low approaching the east coast from the southeast. A large corridor of moisture along the eastern edge of the trough extending from the Ohio Valley northeast into New England will push into our area Thursday night with some showers. Moisture may shift north on Friday as the trough moving into the east amplifies and potentially becomes negatively tilted. However, low clouds and drizzle may linger across our region on Friday. The amplifying trough will open up a channel for the tropical low to track north toward our area possibly bringing a soaking rain Friday night into Saturday. There is a small chance this tropical low, which is only a depression, will develop into a tropical storm. However, a strong shearing environment along the eastern edge of the trough is not favoring very strong development. Nevertheless, the low has the potential to bring ample moisture our way as it lifts north into our area late Friday night into Saturday. The low will continue north of our area Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level low associated with the trough moves over. This will likely bring continued showers through Sunday and into Sunday night as much colder air is pulled in from the northwest. Showers will likely continue Monday, and by Monday night it may be cold enough for some wet snow showers in the higher elevation in the western and northern parts of our region. A chilly wind is likely Tuesday with low clouds and some rain or snow showers across the north and clouds breaking for some sunshine Downeast. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected until Tuesday morning. There is a slight chance of shallow fog at FVE towards sunrise. Otherwise, all sites will trend down to MVFR and then IFR due to cigs and rain by midday. Most sites will likely have IFR cigs near Fl010 during the afternoon into the evening. Very strong winds under FL050 will materialize later in the afternoon with over 60 kts at FL030 towards FVE and CAR. Even BGR will have nearly 50 kts at FL020 by evening. LLWS may be needed in TAFs. SHORT TERM: Widespread IFR conditions are expected Tuesday night due to rain and fog ahead of a cold frontal passage. Strong winds will continue through 06z Wed as well, with LLWS possible at all terminals. The front will push off the coast by 12z or so Wednesday and expect skies to clear from northwest to southeast as it does so. Therefore, all sites will be VFR by 16z Wednesday. These conditions will prevail through 12z Thursday, but ceilings will lower through the day as more rain spreads into the region. Expect all sites to be MVFR by 00z Fri. Rainy weather will continue through Saturday, along with MVFR conditions. Local IFR will be possible during this time frame. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No significant weather until Tuesday afternoon when some patchy fog is possible and winds will kick up to SCA criteria with gusts at 25 to 30 kts from the SE. Seas will also increase towards 5 to 6 feet by evening. As a result, have issued a Small Craft Advisory as of noon Tuesday through Tuesday night. SHORT TERM: The Small Craft Advisory will remain in place until early Wednesday morning. Southwest winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt are expected through midnight ahead of an approaching front, but these should subside thereafter once the front crosses the waters. Seas will peak at 5-7 ft and will be slower to subside. Therefore, the SCA may need to be converted over to Hazardous Seas only and extended into Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Hastings Marine...VJN/Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.