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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 261911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
211 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A COLD AND DRY
NIGHT TO THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STRAYED ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS FROM A WEAK TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY STRAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT, BUT WILL THEN PUSH BACK SOUTH TOWARD
MORNING AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN. FRIDAY WILL THEN BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW
VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF
SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID
20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW
MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS
AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE
MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER
THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION
DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

THROUGH YESTERDAY THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 37 CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU.  THIS RANKS AS
THE 10TH LONGEST STRETCH WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING.
THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 53 DAYS WAS SET BACK IN THE WINTER OF
2000-2001.

A TOTAL OF 117.1 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR THIS WINTER
AT BANGOR...WHICH MAKES IT THE 4TH SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD.  THE
ALL-TIME RECORD OF 181.9 INCHES WAS SET DURING THE WINTER OF
1962-63.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB
CLIMATE...CB