Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261911 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 211 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A COLD AND DRY NIGHT TO THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STRAYED ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS FROM A WEAK TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY STRAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT, BUT WILL THEN PUSH BACK SOUTH TOWARD MORNING AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. FRIDAY WILL THEN BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW. FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID 20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. && .CLIMATE...BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD. THROUGH YESTERDAY THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 37 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU. THIS RANKS AS THE 10TH LONGEST STRETCH WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING. THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 53 DAYS WAS SET BACK IN THE WINTER OF 2000-2001. A TOTAL OF 117.1 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR THIS WINTER AT BANGOR...WHICH MAKES IT THE 4TH SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD. THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 181.9 INCHES WAS SET DURING THE WINTER OF 1962-63. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB MARINE...BLOOMER/CB CLIMATE...CB

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