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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 131013
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
613 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region Today with another round of
showers and thunderstorms, followed by high pressure on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 6:10 AM: Have adjusted sky cover based on latest
satellite. Also adjusted temperature, dew point, and wind based
on latest observations. Pop and weather grid adjusted based on
radar.

A cold front will cross the State Today. This system is expected
to result in showers and scattered thunderstorms in the north as
it moves across the region. Some of the thunderstorms may
contain gusty winds and small hail. Weak high pressure will move
across the region tonight with clearing skies.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sheared vort max in cyclonic flow around the James Bay upr low wl
bring an increase in clds to nrn zones Mon aftn. May see a few hrs
of isold showers acrs the far nw in the aftn with fair wx elsewhere.
Temps wl climb abv normal into the lwr 80s for interior Downeast and
u70s acrs the north with H8 temps warmer than Sun.

Frontal bndry sitting north of CWA acrs Quebec/Ontario wl begin to
drop south Tue mrng. Pop chcs increase aft 12z Tue and with diurnal
htg lkly resulting in CAPES fm 500-1000 J/kg in the aftn wl continue
mention of thunder for Tue. Temps wl be a few degrees cooler than
Mon due to cld cvr and showers expected. Moisture wl increase ahead
of front, leading to patchy fog acrs the area and areas of fog for
Downeast ovrngt.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cdfnt wl pass thru the state Tue night lvg cyclonic flow in its wake
before hipres builds in on Wed night. Med range guidance has come
into slightly better agreement with an overall fair day on Thur. Thu
night discrepancies exist btwn GFS/CMC vs EC with latest EC bringing
sfc low fm the Greak Lks into the Gulf of Maine while GFS/CMC 12-18
hrs slower with sfc low progression. This is lkly due to EC
weakening the ridge while GFS and CMC maintain it`s strength. GFS
ensemble members are similar to operational mean with showers lkly
not mvg in until closer to 12z Fri. Hipres may keep most of the
showers confined to Downeast next weekend while St. John Vly wl stay
mainly dry thru the end of the long term pd. Temps wl continue to
run slightly blo normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR conditions are expected today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR on Monday will give way to IFR vsbys
restrictions late Mon night. Cold front will approach Tue with
showers and tstms possibly affecting terminals north of BGR with
localized MVFR conditions. May see IFR restrictions once again
in fog Wed morning depending on when fropa occurs.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the winds. For waves:
A southerly fetch area is currently developing to the south of
the Gulf of Maine. Longer period swell (3-4 feet/8-9 seconds)
from this fetch will be the primary wave system later today and
tonight. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to
initialize waves. Will reduce the wave heights by 1 foot to
adjust high wave model bias resulting from cold sea surface
temperatures suppressing boundary layer winds.

SHORT TERM: Wind and seas will remain blo SCA levels thru the
middle part of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Mignone/Farrar
Marine...Mignone/Farrar