Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 131315 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 915 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the region today. A warm front will lift north of the region tonight with some showers expected. A cold front move into the area on Saturday and stalled Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 9:10 AM: Have adjusted temperature and dew point. No other changes. Previous Discussion... Temps will be slightly above normal for mid October. After a frosty morning with some patchy dense river valley fog, conditions will be sunny through the afternoon. The latest sfc and ua analysis showed high pres over the region this morning. This high will slide to the e during the day today with a return flow bringing a moderation in temps on a southerly wind. Temps are forecast to hit into the upper 50s and lower 60s from north to south. The latest high resolution models such as the HRRR and RAP indicate winds to gust to near 25 mph into the afternoon. The sounding data supports this w/0-6km shear values closing in around 30 kts. For tonight, clouds will start to increase as a warm front lifts north. There is some mid level forcing associated w/the front. The latest model guidance shows moisture available up through 700mbs. So, this moisture combined w/the forcing should be enough to allow for some showers to break out across the west and fill in across the northern areas. Interesting enough the NAM guidance shows some llvl convergence across the Central Highlands and Mount Katahdin region to support shower activity. Decided to bring the percentages(30%) further south to cover the aforementioned areas. Attm, expecting rainfall amounts close to 0.10 inches in some locations such as the Central Highlands and Mount Katahdin region. Temps will be kept up throughout the night as a south wind stays up around 10 mph. This will also alleviate any fog potential.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Saturday, a weak front stalls out over the area with a chance of showers. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs generally in the low to mid 60s. The front lifts back north as a warm front late Saturday night into early Sunday, and with some overrunning moisture there should be a period of rain Sunday morning. Nothing major, with amounts around a third of an inch far north and lesser amounts south. After the warm front lifts north we will be in a well defined warm sector late Saturday night into Sunday. Areas of fog expected Saturday night, perhaps persisting all day Sunday near the coast thanks to the juicy airmass. Concern for decent southerly winds Sunday afternoon into early evening right ahead of the strong cold front. Airmass will be pretty stable so strong winds may have trouble fully mixing down. Still, think that gusts to 35 mph can be expected most places, with localized gusts to 45 mph. When leaves are off the trees, this is no big deal, but with leaves still on the trees, this wind could cause some issues. The wind will also knock many of the leaves off the trees and many trees will be bare come Monday. Cold front blasts through Sunday evening. Expect a line of showers along the front. Doesn`t appear to be enough instability for storms, but we do need to be careful as shear is pretty good, plus winds just off the ground are pretty strong and could mix down with the frontal shower line. Drying out quickly behind the front Sunday night. Models are in fairly good agreement Saturday through Sunday night. Some minor issues with the timing of the front around Sunday evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much cooler and dry Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly mid 40s to mid 50s, and lows Monday night below freezing the vast majority of places with high pressure over the area. Next potential system is around Tuesday night with a fast-moving shortwave coming from the northwest. Models disagree on the amplitude of the system, and precip from it could stay north of us. Have chance of rain just in the north. Not quite cold enough for snow at low elevations. Most likely dry Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures not too far from average. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions today w/the exception of some fog this morning in areas such as KPQI. Conditions are expected to change tonight as southerly winds will bring some low cigs northward affecting all terminals w/MVFR and IFR. Vsbys look like they will stay up due to south winds around 8-10 kts. SHORT TERM: Some MVFR Saturday morning, generally improving to VFR Saturday afternoon into the evening. Later Saturday night and into Sunday, however, onshore flow will bring widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings and windy conditions. Cold front will move through Sunday evening with mainly VFR behind the cold front late Sunday night into Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines expected for this term. South winds picking up later today will allow for speeds to increase to 10-15 kts into tonight. Some gusts to 20-25 kts are expected especially over the outer zones. Seas of 2 ft are forecast to build to around 4 ft by Saturday morning. SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions a near certainty Sunday and Sunday night, with even the chance of gales. Seas build to around 11 feet Sunday night. Conditions improve to below small craft levels late Monday and persist into Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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