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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 031132
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT CONDITIONS OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS DOWNEAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DOWNEAST.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT
TONIGHT BEHIND THE INTENSIFYING LOW AND IT WILL TURN COLDER. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S
TO NEAR 30 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES FCST OVR ERN NS WED AM WILL CONT TO LIFT QUICKLY NEWRD
INTO THE MARITIMES BY WED AFTN W/ A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND CREST OVR THE AREA WED NGT.
SYSTEM TO OUR SE SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR AREA OTHER
THAN SOME BRISK NW WNDS AND LINGERING LGT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPCLY
FAR E AND NE WED AM... AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM IS NOT VRY
COLD SO AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN A LITTLE ABV SEASONAL NORMS
FOR HIGHS ON WED W/ TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S N TO THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 S. ANY CLRG WED AFTN INTO WED EVE
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WAA AHEAD OF THE NXT SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT
IN THICKENING/LOWERING CLDS AGAIN LATER WED NGT INTO ERLY THU.
THIS INCREASING CLD CVR/WAA AND LACK OF ANY REAL COLD AIR WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WED NGT AND HAVE GENERALLY
GONE ABV GUIDANCE FOR WED NGT/S LOWS W/ LOWER TO MID 20S N AND
UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 S. LOW PRES FCST TO PASS WELL NW OF THE AREA
ON THU WILL DRAG AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT/OCLD FRONT EWRD INTO THE
AREA BY ERLY THU. TIMING DIFFS BTWN THE VARIOUS MODELS PERSIST W/
THE GFS REMAINING THE FASTEST. ATTM HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF AND CAN FOR TIMING...  BNDRY LYR TEMPS AND CRITICAL
THCKNS VALS SUGGEST THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COLD ENUF ACROSS THE
REGION ERLY THU INTO THU AM TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PD OF SNOW OR A
WNTRY MX BUT WAA SHOULD ALLOW EVN FAR NRN AREAS LIKE THE ST JOHN
VLY TO SWITCH OVR TO JUST SOME RAIN BY LATER THU AFTN. TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS THIS EVENT GENERALLY EXPECTED ON THE LGT SIDE - LESS THAN
.25 INCHES W/ ANY SNOW ACCUMS AN INCH OR LESS W/ ANY ICE ACCUMS A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. EXPECT HIGHS BY THU AFTN TO RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S N TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S S...&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES WELL NW OF THE REGION WILL DRAG A COMPLEX FRONTAL BNDRY
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU/THU NGT W/ THE GFS REMAINING THE
FASTEST OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS... BY FRI AM...ALL MODELS PLACE
THE REGION UNDER CAA W/ THE FRONTAL BNDRY BECOMING NRLY STATIONARY
JUST S AND SE OF THE REGION. A SFC WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKING
ENEWRD ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT IS ALSO FCST TO JUST BRUSH OUR SRN
AREA LATE THU NGT THRU FRI AM W/ ANOTHER WAVE TRACKING JUST A
LITTLE FURTHER S AND MORE OFFSHORE LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT AM. COLD
HIGH PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVR THE ENTIRE FA LATER SAT
THRU SUN NGT W/ BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A PSBL
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION BY MON... TEMPS
THRU THE PD WILL TREND FROM ABV NORMAL ERLY IN THE PD TO BLO
SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE PD. USED THE SUPER BLEND CONSENSUS
W/ MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE...

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO START
THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN BECOME VFR KBGR/KBHB BY
THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: ANY MVFR OR IFR CONDS AT OUR TAF SITES WED AM SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDS AS LOW PRES WELL ESE OF THE AREA MVS NEWRD
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BEGINS BUILDING INTO REGION. VFR CONDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THRU WED NGT W/ A ROUND OF MVFR/IFR THU INTO THU
NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS WELL NW OF THE AREA AND DRAGS A COMPLEX
FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST S OF THE AREA AND A SFC WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTING NEWRD ALONG
THIS FRONT MAY RESULT IN PERSISTING MVFR/IFR MAINLY OUR SRN TAF
SITES THRU FRI AM W/ MAINLY VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES
THRU SAT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA...

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS SHOULD CONT INTO ERLY WED AFTN BUT THEN
ABATE AS DEEP LOW PRES OVR ERN NS WED AM LIFTS NEWRD INTO THE
MARITIMES... WNDS/SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS WED
NGT INTO THU THO CONDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATER THU AS LOW
PRES TRACKS WELL NW OF THE WATERS AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW