Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 071107 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 607 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build south of the region today and remain to our south tonight into Friday. Low pressure will develop offshore on Saturday and track to our south and east Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 6:00 AM: Have adjusted temperature and dew point. No other changes. Low pressure will remain to the north of the region today as an upper level trough approaches from the west. This will result in a northwesterly flow which will import colder air into the area. Expect mostly cloudy conditions in the north and western higher terrain with a few snow showers possible in those areas. In the south and coastal areas skies will remain mostly clear today and tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Southwest flow wl continue on Friday as upr trof digs south out of Hudson Bay. This wl continue mocldy skies acrs the north and west along with a chc for flurries throughout the day tho vry little wl be measurable. Highs drg the day wl rmn above normal with lwr 30s acrs the north and nr 40 for srn zones. Fri night into Saturday wl feature more of the same. Area wl be in btwn two streams of moisture with moclr-pcldy skies present acrs most of the CWA thru the end of the short term. Main H5 low wl be lifting north and east of James Bay while srn stream jet wl keep main shield of clds ovr the waters into Sat mrng bfr slowly lifting nwrd. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Latest model runs for Sat night are vry slowly converging on coastal tracking south of Nova Scotia Sun morning. EC is much slower than either the GFS or GEM. Chances appear to be increasing that the se and coast may see accumulating snow late Sat night into Sun morning on the order of a couple of inches. The caveat wl be any deeper amplification of wv wl result in more snow and a flatter flow wl result in less snow. Best guess at this time is a few inches of snow thru Sun morning with plenty of time to nail down amnts. Quick-mvg system wl mv thru on Monday with next possible system due in Tue aftn. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions today and tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR expected Fri into Saturday tho MVFR may briefly occur across northern terminals, especially FVE during the period. Southern terminals may drop to MVFR and possibly IFR beginning Sat evening into Sun morning. MVFR possibly across the north on Sunday in low-level stratus. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will use the NAM to initialize the sustained winds. For waves: Currently the primary wave system is south- southwesterly swell from yesterdays fetch across the gulf of Maine. This wave system will slowly subside during the day today. At the same time southwesterly wind wave will building during the next 24 hours as winds increase and will become the primary wave system later tonight. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to initialize the wave grids. Expect to keep the SCA in place until at least later this morning. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions looks to continue through the day Friday with seas 4-6 feet and winds aoa 25kts over the outer waters. By late Friday night winds and seas should drop below SCA levels before possibly increasing again Sun morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.