Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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961 FXUS61 KCAR 280758 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 358 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will approach today...cross the area tonight...then continue into the Maritimes on Sunday. High pressure will build over the area Monday. A cold front will approach Monday night and cross the area late Tuesday. An upper trough will remain to our north on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure tracking from Ontario into Western Quebec today will pull moisture north over the relatively cooler and drier air over our region producing rain across the area. Most of the rain will fall from the Central Highlands east, southeast into the Downeast region where over an inch may fall. A ridge axes of high pressure, both surface and aloft, will be nearby to our northeast. This will limit amounts across the far northeast to around a quarter to a half inch. Most of the rain is likely to occur through early to mid morning as the initial push of overrunning moisture occurs across the region. Rain will then get a bit more intermittent through midday and the afternoon with some embedded thunderstorms possible in a few southern areas south of the front. Tonight will remain cloudy with occasional rain tapering off to showers as the surface low weakens and crosses the area. Most of the support for some overrunning rain and showers will be across the north with a dry intrusion pushing into the south. Tranquil air and moist ground over the south may result in patchy fog late tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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On Sunday, occluding low pressure system moves southeast into the Atlantic, as weak ridging builds in Sunday into Monday. As low moves out to sea, rain showers begin to taper off across the state, ending by Sunday night. Generally looking a light and variable winds on Sunday, with daytime highs in the mid-60s in the north, and mid-70s in the Penobscot Bangor region. Overnight lows Sunday night in the mid-50s throughout northern and central Maine. Low-level moisture, light winds, and surface inversion indicate that some fog could occur in valleys and coastal areas. On Monday, ridging continues to move over Maine, bringing a brief period of calm and dry conditions. Skies stay mostly overcast, but warm air advection brings daytime highs into the low-to-mid 80s throughout Maine. Monday night, low pressure to the northwest moves north, bringing another frontal system through New England. Cold air pushes ahead of approaching warm front, so overnight lows in the 60s. Plenty of moisture associated with this system moving in, bring chance of rain showers from the northwest down the the southeast by daybreak on Tuesday. Pressure gradient begins to tighten, causing southerly flow to increase overnight.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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On Tuesday, low pressure system to the northwest moves northeast, as the associated warm front sweeps through New England. Maine will be in the warm sector during this time, helping raise temperatures back up into the high 70s and mid 80s. Tightening pressure gradient could cause some gusty winds during the day. With this system, there is a potential for some severe weather if convection is able to fire off. Favorable CAPE, CIN, shear, and helicity are available for thunderstorm development. If a cell does grow, shear and MUCAPE values are favorable for the development of some small hail, but confidence is low at this time. Working against convection, however, is some pretty lack-luster lapse rates. Since most of the instability is elevated, some lifting mechanism would be needed in order to support parcel lifting. This could depend then on the speed of the associated cold front, or if the surface trough that may develop between the two fronts will be strong enough to get things moving. Later this week, a surface trough behind the low moves through on Thursday. Low pressure in Canada moves to the northwest on Friday, with high pressure to the southwest. Generally highs in the 70s/80s. Overnight lows in the 50s/60s. Chance for rain and a few isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Looking at another wet wet weekend with some scattered rain showers associated with this incoming low system.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Conditions will lower to MVFR early this morning then IFR later this morning in low clouds. IFR conditions will persist this afternoon and through tonight in low clouds and some fog with occasional LIFR conditions. Winds light SE today and tonight. SHORT TERM: Sunday...MVFR conditions due to rain. Fog possible during the early morning hours for southern terminals, reducing terminals to IFR. Winds from the SE at 5-10kts. Sunday night-Monday...Mainly VFR conditions. IFR fog possible over Downeast terminals Monday morning. Rain showers mover in on Monday from NW to SE by nighttime. Light W winds becoming S by Monday evening, at 5-10kts. Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR/IFR conditions due to thunderstorms on Tuesday. Also a potential for some fog development in valleys and coastal areas. Winds from the S at 5kts, becoming SW at 5-10kts, with gusts up to 20kts, on Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night-Wednesday..VFR/MVFR conditions as rain showers slowly move out of Maine. Winds from the SW at 5-10kts, gusting up to 20kts, becoming W Wednesday morning. Wednesday Wednesday night...VFR conditions. A few rain showers move into the north late Wednesday night, early Thursday morning. Winds from the W at 5-10 kts, gusts 20-25kt possible, becoming SW overnight.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will be below SCA today and tonight. Moist air moving in over the waters may result in some fog and mist tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria this weekend. Potential for marginal Small Craft conditions on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds shifting counterclockwise during the day on Sunday, as low pressure system passes over the area. Generally winds from the W at 5-10 kts by Sunday evening. Potential for some overnight fog Sunday night, and Monday night.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Brennan Long Term...Brennan Aviation...Bloomer/Brennan Marine...Bloomer/Brennan