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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 042254
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
6 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH EARLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A SHORT WAVE FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL BRING SCATTERED LGT SN SHWRS
OR A PD OF STEADY LGT SN TO MSLY DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA TNGT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THE LGT SN
SHOULD BE DIMINISHING FROM N TO S TOWARD THE COAST LATE TNGT.
OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA
THIS EVE SHOULD ALSO RECEDE SWRD LATE TNGT AS ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRES
EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE OVR TM. GIVEN THIS SET UP...OVRNGT LOW TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE. WITH RATHER LMTD AMOUNT AND TM OF
CLR SKIES XPCTD...OVRNGT LOWS OF TEENS TO LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO
WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR NRN VLYS TNGT.

OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CONT TO CLR N TO S OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA DURING THE DAY WED...WITH LGT BUT FAIRLY BRISK NRLY BREEZE AND
HI TEMPS STILL MUCH BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING MAINE MEANWHILE A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
NOSING OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST A REASONABLE SHOT FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND DECOUPLING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 20
BELOW RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHILE NEGATIVE TEENS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS THE NE/CENTRAL AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURE NEAR OR
IN THE LOWER 20S.

THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE SURFACE HIGH. ALONG WITH RETURN FLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING SOUTH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF MAINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FRIDAY WITH HIGH IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GENERALLY COLD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT MAY GIVE A COATING TO A HALF INCH OF FRESH SNOW, MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CURRENT LONG RANGE
PROJECTIONS ARE THAT LOW HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
WEST TO EAST FLOW THAT WILL CARRY THE SYSTEM EAST AND OUT TO SEA
KEEPING OUR AREA MAINLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MSLY VFR TNGT WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES WILL LIKELY HAVE A PD OF MVFR VSBYS/CLGS AND EVEN PERHAPS
IFR AT KBHB TNGT IN LGT FALLING SN. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON
WED.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED WITHE LGT FZSPY XPCTD TO CONT
OVR THE WATERS. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN