Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 202258 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 658 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through Sunday and move east Monday. A frontal system will cross the region Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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6:30pm update... No major changes needed. Made minor tweaks to temps through 06z based on current temps/trends and latest data, but did not change the lows for tonight. May need to keep winds up a bit more than currently forecast as a shortwave slides across the CWA overnight, which could hinder temp drops, but will assess that with the next update. Original discussion... Clr skies are the rule acrs the entire state today as high pressure builds out of Canada. This has allowed temps to warm into the m50s acrs the north and lwr 60s for Downeast. Dwpts hv dropped blo 30F leading to RH values around 30% and expect values may drop to nr 25% at max htg in a few hrs. North winds continue to gust to 20-25kts this aftn as core of strongest winds rmns acrs the region, mostly acrs ern zones. Strong H9 winds wl rmn ovr the far east thru most of the ovrngt bfr finally diminishing aft daybreak. Thus, expect that winds wl stay a tad stronger than expected tonight except for the lowest vlys where atmosphere wl decouple. Therefore not expecting as much of a widespread frost with just patchy frost as far south as the Bangor metro area with most frost acrs the St. John Vly, North Woods and nrn portions of the Central Highlands. Sunday wl be a repeat of tda with temps up nr normal for this time of yr. Full sun and fairly light north winds expected with relative humidities a tad lwr.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... On Sunday night, a 1026mb high and associated upper ridge will be in control with very dry air at lower levels. Will stay close to model guidance as upper level clouds will be thickening and slow down radiational cooling. On Monday, will specify cloudy skies as mid and upper decks thicken and keep highs mostly in the 50s except along the eastern border where 60F is possible. Pops will increase as the day progresses in western zones as an occluded front draws closer. The occluded front is expected to cross Monday night with some rain. Amounts will likely be under a tenth of an inch except near the coast where more than a quarter inch may fall due to a triple point low near the coast. A southwest low level flow on Tuesday seems likely to help reduce morning low clouds and produce highs into the 60s to near 70F. Temperatures will be cooler on the coast with onshore flow and highs in the mid to upper 50s. Precip will probably linger in coastal Washington County through the morning. Upper level ridging is expected to build Tuesday into early Wednesday in response to a large scale upper trough digging into the Mississippi Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level troughing in the lower Mississippi Valley will be the dominant feature for mid and late next week. There is a lot of uncertainty on whether a cut-off will form in the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday or whether the trough will stay open long enough such a low pressure system will propagate on the cyclonic side of the trough towards Maine by later Wednesday. Either way, unsettled weather will likely remain over the region into Saturday morning when the upper level trough will finally shift east of the area and allow ridging for the remainder of the long weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours at all terminals under high pressure. Winds will remain out of the north this afternoon with gusts to 20-25 kts then lighten up by 00z tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday. MVFR tempo IFR cigs will develop Monday night into Tuesday morning. VFR conditions will likely return Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. MVFR tempo IFR conditions are likely to return later Wednesday into Thursday morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the weekend. SHORT TERM: Fog will probably arrive later Monday night into Tuesday morning. Long period swell could be an issue later Wednesday into Saturday. No strong winds are anticipated during the period at this time. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ002-005-006- 010-011-031-032. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Kredensor Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Farrar/Kredensor/MCW Marine...Farrar/Kredensor/MCW

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