Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280820 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT COLDER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVINCE EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND THEN ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE REASONABLE SOLUTIONS TO WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE MODELS FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF. BASED ON VERIFICATION LAST TWO DAYS HAVE USED CONSENSUS MOS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE... SUPER BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DAMP CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TERM. A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND STALL OUT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS RIDES ALONG THE FRONT SETTING OFF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/UP TO 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH, RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS W/LESS FORCING. ENE WINDS, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO DAMP CONDITIONS W/TEMPERATURES SOME 25-30 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAMP AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON RIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ENE WINDS AT THE SURFACE BECOME MORE SSE AS HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MARITIMES. A SSW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED W/THE ESE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL YIELD OVERCAST CONDITIONS W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN MONDAY`S MAXES. WE ARE TALKING UPPER 40S TO LOWERS 50S FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/MID 50S AT BEST FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS ATTM. CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE STILL AROUND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY W/THE ENE FLOW SET IN THROUGH 700MBS. THE COLUMN APPEARS TO DRY OUT BY LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES TRIED TO TAKE OVER. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD ON INTO FRIDAY W/A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORMAL READINGS BY LATE WEEK. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE LOW PRES THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SE OF CAPE COD. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW COULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO HANG ON ESPECIALLY OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS. THE DAYCREW WILL HAVE TIME TO ASSESS THIS SITUATION W/LATER MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KHUL SOUTH DUE TO PATCHY FOG... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR FOR THE TERMINALS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST PROJECTIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS NORTH OF KHUL BY TUESDAY W/MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD HANG ON RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY FRO KBGR AND KBHB WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS COULD HAVE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS LONG PERIOD INCOMING WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP FROM EAST 1-2 FEET/8 SECONDS. SECONDARY WAVE GROUP MADE UP OF WIND WAVE FROM SOUTHWEST AROUND 1 FOOT/4-5 SECONDS. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/THE HIGH TO THE N AND LOW PRES MEANDERING OVER THE OPEN ATLC. SUSTAINED NNE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD TO A RANGE OF 5 TO 8 FT W/PROLONGED NNE FETCH. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START DROPPING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT

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