Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 252100 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 400 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE... ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO... IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE. SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...VJN/DUDA MARINE...VJN/DUDA

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