Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240616 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 216 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region today. Another cold front will begin to cross the region later Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Update... A cold front will approach northern Maine overnight. Showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will occur across northern areas overnight, where locally heavy rain is also possible. Lesser shower chances will exist southward across the remainder of the forecast area. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect across coastal Washington county overnight. Overnight low temperatures will generally range from the upper 50s to around 60 across much of the forecast area, with mid to upper 50s along the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight shower chances and temperatures. Previous discussion... The cold front will be making its way southward through the state on Saturday. Expect showers will be focused over Downeast Maine by mid morning. These will push offshore during the afternoon hours. Breaks of sunshine will develop thereafter with a few showers lingering across the north. Highs will be warmer than today, mainly in the mid 70s to around 80, though winds will be a little breezy out of the west. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Progressive fast flow with below normal mid tropospheric pres hts alf will result in rapid chgs in sensible wx both in the short and long term. Any eve shwrs Sat eve should dissipate by erly Sun morn as an initial s/wv ridge alf builds from the W ovr the Rgn. This will be followed up by a fast movg s/wv trof alf for Sun aftn, resulting in a fair start Sun morn becoming ptly to msly cldy with sct shwrs/tstms in the aftn and eve. Whats left of the upper trof and a weak cold front will also result in sct shwrs and aftn tstms on Mon, but more so ovr Cntrl ptns of the Rgn tan the far N. Temps will be near to slightly below avg in the short term for this tm of season. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Other progressive s/wvs alf from E Cntrl Can will keep msly unsettled conditions for the Rgn msly for aftn and eve hrs for Tue and Wed where sct shwrs will have the greatest chc of occurrence. Most longer range models then indicate a more sig s/wv for Thu into Thu ngt from Cntrl Can accompanied by a surge of warmer air for the late week. Given rapid speed of s/wvs and tmg uncertainties, for now outside of high trrn, we kept max PoPs for any shwr activity in the hi chc range for now, with later fcst updates re-visiting the weighting of higher PoPs for specific s/wvs as they become closer in real tm. What can be said attm is that there does not look to be any lengthy rn pds, but also not much opportunity be to rn free for much greater than 12 hrs attm, spcly for the N hlf of the Rgn. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR, with local VLIFR, conditions will occur across the region overnight. Showers will be most extensive across northern areas where an isolated thunderstorm is also possible. A cold front will cross the region on Saturday, bringing showers to an end and raising conditions to MVFR from north to south after 12z. All sites to be MVFR or VFR by 18z Sat. SHORT TO LONG TERM: All TAF sites will mainly be VFR Sat ngt thru Wed, xcpt briefly MVFR clgs/vsbys attms in heavier shwrs and isold tstms. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, overnight. Small craft advisory level seas could persist early Saturday. Visibilities will be significantly reduced in widespread fog overnight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated for these ptns of the fcst attm, with wv hts ovr outer MZs decreasing from SCA thresholds Sat ngt. Went with 75 to 85 percent of WW3 wv guidance or fcst wv hts with primary wv pds will ranging from 5 to 7 sec. && .HYDROLOGY... There is potential for very heavy downpours overnight along a slow moving warm frontal boundary. The highest risk at this time will be mostly north of a line from Dover- Foxcroft towards Houlton. Urban and small stream flooding are the risks as a half inch or more of rain could fall within a very short time. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MEZ030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Hastings Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Norcross/Hastings Marine...Norcross/VJN Hydrology...Hastings

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