Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181407 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1007 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will cross the region today then exit across the maritimes tonight. A weak cold front will cross the area Thursday and be followed by a stronger cold front Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1005 AM update...The main impetus behind this update was to expire the Dense Fog Advisory. Area webcams and surface observations indicate that much of the dense fog has lifted, improving visibilities. There are a few lingering locally dense patches, but these should gradually dissipate through this morning. Otherwise, made a few tweaks to PoPs to match current radar trends, as well as to add some thunder in for the remainder of the morning hours, particularly in southern Penobscot County were convection is moving in from the west. Otherwise, the forecast was in good shape and no other changes were needed. Previous Discussion... An upper level trof will cross the region today through early tonight, then exit across the maritimes later tonight. Showers will occur across the region this morning. With diurnal heating and the upper trof, expect more extensive showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and persist into the evening. Based on precipitable water values and relatively light winds aloft which will allow for slow movement, have included the possibility of locally heavy rain with any thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. Fog will occur across the region this morning, most extensive along the Downeast coast. With the upper trof exiting and the loss of diurnal heating, the showers and thunderstorms will diminish later this evening into the overnight hours leaving generally partly cloudy skies overnight. Expect fog to develop again tonight, most extensive across Downeast areas. High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to around 80 across much of the forecast area, with lower to mid 70s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from around 60 to the lower 60s across the forecast area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front is expected to approach from the northwest during the day Wednesday. The front will move across the region during the evening. Some showers are expected as the front moves through but the showers are not expected to be widespread. High pressure will then build in across the northeast on Thursday. Humidity is expected to remain high both days with dew points remaining in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Another cold front is expected to approach the region Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with the passage of this front, especially Friday afternoon. High pressure is then expected to build in from the northwest during the day Saturday. Drier air will move into the region Sunday along with high pressure. Low pressure will track to the south of the state Monday with the far north remaining dry but showers are possible in southern areas. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally IFR to VLIFR conditions are expected across the region early this morning with low clouds and fog. Conditions should improve to VFR levels later this morning into the afternoon, though the low clouds and fog could be more persistent along the Downeast coast. Variable conditions will also occur with any showers or thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening, with locally heavy rains possible with any thunderstorms. Variable conditions will develop with low clouds and fog again tonight, most extensive across Downeast areas. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Friday. VFR conditions are expected Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. Visibilities will be significantly reduced in widespread dense fog today through tonight. Isolated to scattered showers are also possible this afternoon. SHORT TERM: Winds are expected to be light through the period. Will use the NAM to initialize the wind grids and will reduce the model wind by 10 percent due to relatively cold sea surface temperature. For Waves: The primary wave systems during this period is expected are expected to be long period southerly to southeasterly swell. These will include long period southeasterly swell 1-2 feet/10-12 seconds and intermediate period swell from the south 1-2 feet/6-7 seconds. Wind wave is expected to be below 1 foot through the period. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System to initialize the wave grids and will lower model wave heights 1 foot through the period to negate high model bias. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hastings/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Hastings/Norcross/Mignone Marine...Hastings/Norcross/Mignone

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