Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201014 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 614 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the region today. Low pressure will develop to the west of the area tonight. A secondary low will develop in the Gulf of Maine Friday night and will slowly lift across Maine Saturday. The low will slowly lift north of the area Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:14 AM Update...Showers and even some thunderstorms across parts of northern PA early this morning in advance of low pressure that is beginning to develop in the lower Ohio Valley. Just some high and thin cirrus across portions of the CWA. Clouds will be on the increase today with the chance of rain by late in the day across the western zones, and toward evening across the Saint John Valley. Only minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based on the latest observations and near term model trends. Previous discussion... High pressure across the region early this morning will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes today. Low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley today will move into western New England late tonight with an elongated area of low pressure to extend from the Saint Lawrence River Valley to the southern Appalachians by 12Z Friday. Clouds will be on the increase today with rain to develop by late in the day across northern Somerset and parts of central and northern Piscataquis and northwest Aroostook Counties. Highs this afternoon will range from 55 to 60 degrees, perhaps a bit cooler in the far western areas where the rain develops late day. Periods of rain are expected tonight across northern areas with some drizzle and scattered showers across the Down East Region. Patchy fog is likely to develop tonight with lows mostly in the 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Model consensus continues to show a very wet pattern for the end of the week. A digging upper trough will push eastward out of the Midwest, becoming negatively tilted as it moves into the Northeast CONUS. Surface low pressure will develop over southern New England in response to the approaching trough. While there are differences in exactly where the low will track, overall model consensus brings the low northward across central or perhaps western Maine. Meanwhile, the digging trough will lift deep moisture associated with a tropical wave off the southeast coast northward into New England. PWATs are progged to reach 1.5+ inches and warm-cloud depths of 10-12 kft indicate there will be efficient rainfall processes. Have therefore added the mention of heavy rain into the Friday night forecast, which is when the aforementioned surface low tracks near or directly over our forecast area. While exact rainfall amounts will depend on exactly where the surface low tracks, current thinking is we`ll see widespread rain totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches. However, wouldn`t be surprised to see higher amounts by the time all`s said and done. It should be noted that our entire forecast area is included in WPC`s Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Day 3 (12z Fri to 12z Sat). Once the low lifts north of the state, which should occur sometime Saturday afternoon, drier air will work into the state and allow precipitation to begin to wane a bit, mainly Downeast. Daytime highs will generally be in the mid 50s to lower 60s, while Friday night`s temperatures will range from the mid 40s in the North Woods to the mid 50s Downeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Chilly unsettled weather will be the rule through much of next week. An negatively- tilted upper trough will continue to deepen through the weekend and will develop a closed low by Sunday morning. This low will then pinwheel over eastern Canada through at least Tuesday before finally pushing east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Given this pattern, expect cool and showery conditions to persist across the northern half of our forecast area through the period. Southern areas, including Bangor and Downeast, will be drier though not a whole lot warmer. Daytime highs will be in the 40s through Wednesday, with Downeast spots perhaps topping 50 from time to time. Tuesday looks to be the chilliest day, when some locations in the North Woods and upper St John Valley may not break 40. Overnight lows, meanwhile, will mainly be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Given the cold air that will be in place, snow showers, or at least a rain/snow mix, will be possible through the period, mainly in the north and west. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR today outside of any patchy early morning river valley fog. Conditions will lower to MVFR across western Maine late this afternoon in rain. MVFR will develop across the remainder of northern and eastern Maine tonight with conditions to lower to IFR overnight. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through the period. Rain, fog, and low ceilings will persist across the entire forecast area Friday through Saturday as low pressure crosses the region. The southern terminals may show some improvement later Saturday through Monday, perhaps up to MVFR, but can`t rule out occasional IFR from time to time. Northern sites will likely remain IFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels into this evening. A southeast wind will increase tonight with the seas to build to 5 to 7 feet on the coastal waters after midnight. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be poor for the end of this week and the beginning of next owing to deepening low pressure that will cross very near the waters and remain over eastern Canada. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect at the start of the short term, running through most of Friday morning. Winds look to abate for a short time thereafter, into Friday evening, but seas will remain near 5 ft through the day before building substantially to 6-8 ft Friday night through Saturday. Winds will increase Saturday afternoon and remain high through the rest of the weekend. Gusts could approach gales while seas will build to 8-12 ft. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...CB/Hastings Marine...CB/Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.