Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 182230 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 630 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 630 PM UPDATE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TON INTO SAT MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS FROM HOULTON NORTH WITH A MIX TO THE SOUTH. THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH ANY SNOWFALL AN INCH OR LESS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT. SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR... && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/KHW SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS HYDROLOGY...KHW

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