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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 181407
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1007 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will cross the region today then
exit across the maritimes tonight. A weak cold front will
cross the area Thursday and be followed by a stronger cold
front Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1005 AM update...The main impetus behind this update was to
expire the Dense Fog Advisory. Area webcams and surface
observations indicate that much of the dense fog has lifted,
improving visibilities. There are a few lingering locally dense
patches, but these should gradually dissipate through this
morning. Otherwise, made a few tweaks to PoPs to match current
radar trends, as well as to add some thunder in for the
remainder of the morning hours, particularly in southern
Penobscot County were convection is moving in from the west.
Otherwise, the forecast was in good shape and no other changes
were needed.

Previous Discussion...
An upper level trof will cross the region today through early
tonight, then exit across the maritimes later tonight. Showers
will occur across the region this morning. With diurnal heating
and the upper trof, expect more extensive showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and persist into the
evening. Based on precipitable water values and relatively
light winds aloft which will allow for slow movement, have
included the possibility of locally heavy rain with any
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. Fog will occur
across the region this morning, most extensive along the
Downeast coast. With the upper trof exiting and the loss of
diurnal heating, the showers and thunderstorms will diminish
later this evening into the overnight hours leaving generally
partly cloudy skies overnight. Expect fog to develop again
tonight, most extensive across Downeast areas. High temperatures
today will range from the upper 70s to around 80 across much of
the forecast area, with lower to mid 70s along the Downeast
coast. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from around
60 to the lower 60s across the forecast area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front is expected to approach from the northwest during
the day Wednesday. The front will move across the region during
the evening. Some showers are expected as the front moves
through but the showers are not expected to be widespread. High
pressure will then build in across the northeast on Thursday.
Humidity is expected to remain high both days with dew points
remaining in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another cold front is expected to approach the region Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected with the passage of this
front, especially Friday afternoon. High pressure is then
expected to build in from the northwest during the day Saturday.
Drier air will move into the region Sunday along with high
pressure. Low pressure will track to the south of the state
Monday with the far north remaining dry but showers are possible
in southern areas.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally IFR to VLIFR conditions are expected
across the region early this morning with low clouds and fog.
Conditions should improve to VFR levels later this morning into
the afternoon, though the low clouds and fog could be more
persistent along the Downeast coast. Variable conditions will
also occur with any showers or thunderstorms this afternoon into
the evening, with locally heavy rains possible with any
thunderstorms. Variable conditions will develop with low clouds
and fog again tonight, most extensive across Downeast areas.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Friday. VFR conditions are
expected Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels today through tonight. Visibilities will be
significantly reduced in widespread dense fog today through
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers are also possible this
afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds are expected to be light through the period.
Will use the NAM to initialize the wind grids and will reduce
the model wind by 10 percent due to relatively cold sea surface
temperature. For Waves: The primary wave systems during this
period is expected are expected to be long period southerly to
southeasterly swell. These will include long period
southeasterly swell 1-2 feet/10-12 seconds and intermediate
period swell from the south 1-2 feet/6-7 seconds. Wind wave is
expected to be below 1 foot through the period. Will use the
Nearshore Wave Prediction System to initialize the wave grids
and will lower model wave heights 1 foot through the period to
negate high model bias.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

Near Term...Hastings/Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Hastings/Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Hastings/Norcross/Mignone