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426
FXUS61 KCAR 080621
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
221 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move south today with high pressure building
in from the north. High pressure remains over the area through
Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will cross the area through
the end of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Sfc low currently sitting over Downeast tonight with quasi-
stationary front extending over interior Downeast into srn New
Brunswick. Last vestiges of overrunning showers and storms have
shifted out of the CWA with only isolated showers in it/s wake.

Skies are clearing over portions of the North Woods with valley
fog seen on nighttime microphysics over southern Quebec. Expect
as clearing continues overnight that fog will begin to develop
over the far north just before sunrise.

1020mb sfc high will be building south out of Canada this
morning with skies clearing across the north with temps fairly
uniform over CWA, with highs generally topping out in the 70s.

Latest CAMS are showing isolated showers lingering over srn
areas this afternoon with notable storm developing to our west
and just skirting eastern sxns of Penobscot Bay. Have mainly
kept scattered showers and storms out of our area but will pass
onto later shifts to keep an eye on latest guidance.

For tonight clear skies and light winds allow temps to dip into
the 40s over the northwest with 50s over the north and around 60
for srn areas.

Inverted trof looks to set up over western zones tomorrow
afternoon with slight chance for showers and tstms over the very
far west. Highs tomorrow will be around seasonal norms.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Wednesday night...The upper level trof over the Great Lakes
should slowly start to move E. A mid level shortwave is expected
to push into the region through the night with shower chances
increasing. Extended models are having a hard time resolving the
track of the shortwave QPF. Decided to go with the NBM rainfall
timing where the western border should see rain first.

Thursday...As the upper level trof moves E, the shortwave
should follow. Models show the rain progressing E with the
system, though the Canadian shows very little moisture moving
in. The NAM and NBM seem to be the most aggressive with possible
instability with the system. Though the system does not seem to
have the a lifting mechanism, models indicate a possibility of
afternoon clearing which will give enough lift to produce
isolated pulse thunderstorms. Expect temps in the mid 70s.

Thursday night...The axis of the upper level trof will move over
New England. This should help push the slow moving shortwave out
of the region. Rain chances will increase at the beginning of
the night and push out of the area towards Friday morning. Total
rain amounts should be fairly light across the region.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Upper level ridging starts to move into the area for the weekend
with temps in the upper 70s to low 80s and partly cloudy skies.
Models lose consistency towards the beginning of next week with
the next low pressure system moving in. The GFS is the most
aggressive with the cold front moving through the area by Sunday
afternoon while the Euro and Canadian push the front through by
Tuesday. As of this update, the NBM seems to have a good handle
keeping the rain at a chance through early next week. The next
model runs should give a clearer picture.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR expected this morning in fog and low cigs. BHB
likely to drop to LIFR in the next 2-3 hours. Downeast terminals
will slowly improve to MVFR by mid-late morning with BGR
improving to VFR this afternoon. BHB remains MVFR before
diminishing to IFR this evening.

Aroostook terminals varying between MVFR/IFR early this morning
as showers move east. Improvement to MVFR this morning before
becoming VFR late this morning through the afternoon.

All terminals likely to see VFR conditions on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday night...VFR. Light ESE winds.

Thu-Thunight...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. SE winds 5-10 kts.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Light SE winds.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR in rain showers. Light and variable
winds.

Saturday...VFR. Light E wind.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA levels through mid-
week. Visibilities will be reduced by patchy fog this morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA conditions for this
period.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Buster/LaFlash
Marine...Buster/LaFlash