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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 182230
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TON INTO SAT MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
WOULD INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS FROM HOULTON NORTH WITH A MIX
TO THE SOUTH. THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH ANY
SNOWFALL AN INCH OR LESS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE
AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP
TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE
AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS
INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL
REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT
CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO
FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO
ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY
MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM
POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...KHW