Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240936 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 436 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TODAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO QUEBEC THIS EVENING, DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. MILD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT. THE SWATH OF FRONTAL/WARM ADVECTION RAIN IS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER, SO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A QUICK ONE. EXPECT THE RAIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING AND TO EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY MID-EVENING, AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. THE FRONT ITSELF WON`T MOVE THROUGH UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE EVENING, AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, THERE`LL STILL BE THE CHANCE FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH, WITH SOME OF THE UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS GETTING UP TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. GUSTS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME DOWNED LIMBS OR TREES AND PERHAPS ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD TODAY AND TONIGHT; HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO AROUND 55. GUIDANCE IS EVEN INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT, ONLY FALLING LATE ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD LLVL ADVCN WILL BE CONTG THRU TUE BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL BEGIN MCLR TO PTLY CLDY TUE MORN...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF BKN-OVC SC AND A SLGT CHC OF SN SHWRS FOR NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE INTO TUE NGT AS WHATS LEFT OF AN UPPER TROF SLIDES EWRD MSLY N OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY THE FIRST FEW HRS OF TUE MORN...THEN BEGIN TO FALL...SPCLY ACROSS THE N. OVRNGT TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT STILL ABV NORMAL FOR LOWS ERLY WED MORN. WED WILL BEGIN PTLY CLDY MOST LCTNS...BUT HI AND MID CLDNSS FROM THE SFC LOW ADVCG NEWRD FROM THE SE STATES WILL OVRSPRD THE REGION FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP WILL REACH DOWNEAST AREAS BY MID AFTN AND AT LEAST INTO E CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF EVENING. HI TEMPS WED WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEG COLDER THAN HI TEMPS TUE. PRECIP MAY BRIEFLY BEGIN AS LGT RN OR A MIX OF LGT RN/SN OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...BUT EVAPORATIONAL AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF SHOULD CHG ANY RN TO ALL SN BY EVE... XCPT PERHAPS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS WHERE RN OR MIXED RN AND SNOW COULD ON UNTIL LATE TNGT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WE NOTED THAT THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FURTHER E THAN RECENT PAST RUNS...NOW TAKING THE LOW INTO THE ERN BAY OF FUNDY. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS RUN IS ALSO A SLIGHTLY MORE E WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO YSTDY ATTM...ALG WITH THE CORRESPONDING GFS ENSM...BOTH TAKING THE LOW ALG THE S COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THU MORN. IF THE GFS... WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE OF MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK IS CORRECT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF HVY SNFL WED NGT INTO THU MORN WOULD BE OVR DOWNEAST TO PERHAPS AS FAR N AS E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH INCLUDES DIFFICULTIES OF GAGING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SRN JET STREAM S/WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW AND THE POTENTIAL OF ANY PHASING FROM NRN JET STREAM S/WV ENERGY...IT IS TO ERLY TO ISSUE ANY WNTR STM WATCHES ATTM...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK COULD SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER E WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. IN ANY EVENT...WE WILL CONT TO ADVERTISE THIS EVENT IN OUR HAZ WX OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHT A BETTER POTENTIAL OF POSSIBLE WATCHES FOR SPCLY DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...ANY STEADY SNFL OVR PTNS OF THE FA THU MORN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SCT SN SHWRS THU AFTN AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ENE FROM NOVA SCOTIA. LEFT OVR LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING SFC LOW AND A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SN SHWRS SPCLY FOR THE N HLF OF THE FA THU NGT INTO FRI BEFORE SKIES FINALLY BECOME CLR TO PTLY CLDY FRI NGT. SEMI-ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THE CAN S/WV FOR FRI NGT. ANOTHER S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SN SHWR ACTIVITY TO THE REGION LATER SAT INTO SUN AS IT APCHS AND TRACKS MSLY N OF THE REGION. ENOUGH RETURN SRLY LLVL WARM ADVCN COULD OCCUR FOR SN SHWRS TO MIX WITH OR CHG TO RN SHWRS OVR THE S HLF OF THE REGION SUN BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE SUN.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING, THEN GIVE WAY TO IFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BY 00Z, BUT LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL LINGER THROUGH 06Z DUE TO FOG AND DRIZZLE. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD TUE THRU WED MORN...WITH MVFR SC CLGS POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES FROM LATE TUE INTO WED. OTHERWISE...IFR-LIFR IN SN WILL SPREAD NEWRD ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES LATE WED AND CONT NEWRD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVRNGT WED. IFR IN SN WILL CONT THU MORN ACROSS NRN TAF SITES...BUT WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR NRN TAF SITES IN SC CLGS AND SN SHWR VSBYS THU AFTN THRU FRI AND IMPROVE TO VFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO BUILD THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FEET. SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WINDS AND WV HTS WILL CONT TUE WITH WSW WIND FETCH AND THEN TAPER TUE NGT. AFT A BRIEF BREAK WED MORN... WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO AT LEAST SCA RANGE BY LATE WED WITH THE APCH OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE SW AND CONT OVRNGT WED INTO THU AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE MARITIMES. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW...ITS TO EARLY TO COMMIT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WED NGT AND THU ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS THIS UPDATE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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