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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 150257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1057 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND TRACK NORTH
OF MAINE SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT DRAWING A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION SNOWS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT NEAREST THE APPROACHING LOW...WITH LESSER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW COULD BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN MOST
AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY WILL BE SUPPORTED FROM AN OCCLUSION AND LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 OVER THE AREA. SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES JUST NNE OF THE AREA SAT EVE W/ AN ATTENDANT SFC OCLN E
OF THE AREA AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS OUR FA. BEST
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL E OF THE AREA
BY THIS TIME SO EXPECTING JUST SOME LINGERING LGT -RW/-SW ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE N AND W AS
NWRLY FLOW DVLPS ACROSS THE REGION. CAA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SAT NGT ON BRISK NWRLY WNDS AND CONT THRU SUN. AFTER A MILD DAY
SAT...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS FAR NW TO
THE UPPER TEENS NR THE COAST AND ONLY RECOVER TO BTWN 10-15 FAR NW
TO NR 30 NR THE COAST. ANY POPS SAT EVE WILL DIMINISH TO NIL BY
LATE SAT EVE AND THEN EXPECT NIL POPS THRU MON AS COLD BUT DRY
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. ATTM...LOW PRES IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL S OF THE AREA ON MON.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH FAIR
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW AND
RAIN TO THE AREA ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. DISCREPANCIES
EXISTS BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST MODELS WITH THE GFS AND THE
GEM BRINGING THIS SYSTEM IN BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN
DEPICTS A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER WEST THAT
DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IF THIS
LATTER SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY, RAIN WOULD OCCUR ALL THE WAY UP
INTO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS LEAD TIME, UTILIZED THE STANDARD FORECAST MODEL BLEND FOR THE
LONG RANGE. THIS BRINGS IN CHANCE POPS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES THEM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SNOW GOING TO RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND SNOW GOING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FARTHER NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY LOWER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...THEN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDS IN PSBL -SW SAT EVE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD
REACH MARGINAL GALE LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: LOW PRES PASSING WELL N AND NE OF THE WATERS SAT NGT
INTO SUN WILL BRING CAA AND BRISK NWRLY WNDS ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO SUN NGT RESULTING IN SCA CONDS INTO LATE SUN NGT/ERLY MON
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY LATE MONDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS ARRIVES BY LATER WEDNESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-
     002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW
MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW