Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160948 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 448 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track northeast through the Gulf of Maine this evening, then move into the Canadian Maritimes overnight and into Friday. High pressure will build in for Saturday, following by another low pressure system for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 445am Update...Quick update to raise precip chances to 40 percent for most areas early this morning as the light snow/mix has been increasing in coverage a bit. Previous discussion... Early this morning, southerly flow off the Gulf of Maine ahead of tonight`s system is producing some light showers. Although temperatures are around freezing most areas, it seems these showers are too light to cause any impact. Still, will have to keep a close eye. Fairly quiet during the day today with just some light precip and temps ranging from the mid 30s north to mid 40s south. All eyes on tonight`s system. Low pressure rapidly intensifies as it moves northeast through the northern Gulf of Maine this evening. Low confidence on precip type and on the exact track of the low, which means low confidence in snow amounts. Most areas will be rain this evening, changing to a mix or to all snow for most areas except Downeast. Best shot at accumulating snow is from the Central Highlands to the North Woods to Central and Northern Aroostook. Temperatures will be right around freezing late tonight into early Friday, so a degree or two either way could make all the difference. Accumulations stand to be highly elevation dependent. Unfortunately, uncertainly is not only in precip type, but also in how much precip remains after midnight once it gets cold enough for snow in the north. Some models have all the precip exiting into New Brunswick fast, while others have it lingering enough for accumulating snow. Bottom line, due to very low confidence, played it safe with a forecast of 1 to 4 inches north of a Houlton Millinocket Dover-Foxcroft line, and held off on issuing advisories for now. Winds on Friday behind the system are the next concern, with gusts 30 to 40 mph expect on the back side of the system. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure wl be building in Fri evng with perhaps a lingering snow shower acrs the vry far north at the start of the pd. H5 low wl be drifting into the Maritimes Fri night with cyclonic flow rmng ovr the north and stratocu lkly persisting into Sat mrng. May see a brief pd of sun on Sat acrs the north bfr high clds start to spill in ahd of next system. Overrunning wl dvlp late Sat aftn as wmfnt appchs fm the southwest. System is slowing ovr the past svrl model runs so pcpn may hold off until Sat night but confidence is still too low to go completely dry on Sat especially as strong 40-50kt LLJ draws in strong warm advection. Aftn maxes on Sat wl climb into the 40s acrs Downeast zones and into the m30s ovr the far northwest, possibly colder in deeper vlys. Maxes wl lkly peak arnd 19z bfr beginning to drop thru 00z then vry gradually starting to rebound. Deeper vlys acrs the north wl dip into the mid-upr 20s arnd midnight bfr warm advection starts to kick in. Question then bcms how quickly the cold air wl scour out fm the vlys as warm air mvs in aloft. This has the potential to bring frzg rain late Sat night to the northwest. Rain wl lkly be dominant pcpn type south of Bangor on Sat night with snow expected north of Katahdin area and a rain/snow mix in btwn thru midnight bfr rain mvs approx as far north as a Bridgewater-Billy Jack line after this time. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday wl lkly see rain area-wide with area in the warm sector and highs topping out in the 40s and possibly near 50F along the coast. This wl all be ahd of a cdfnt which wl mv rapidly thru the area in the aftn. Bufkit sndgs showing a vry well-mixed environment with potential for strong westerly winds in the aftn once again. Temps wl be much blo normal Sun night thru Tue morning bfr slowly moderating thru mid-week as upr-lvl troffiness transitions to swrly flow aloft. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally MVFR this morning. Expect widespread IFR later this afternoon into tonight with widespread precipitation. Rain should change to snow late tonight in Northern Maine. Windy Friday and becoming VFR most areas by late in the day. SHORT TERM: Restrictions expected in low clouds and rain/snow Fri morning before improving to VFR in the afternoon. Northern zones expected to be IFR in the morning and gradually improve to MVFR in the afternoon and likely remain there thru Sat morning in low-level stratocu. VFR expected on Sat before diminishing once again Sat evening. Restrictions will continue through the weekend in low clouds and rain on Sunday. LLWS possible late Sat night into Sunday morning for all terminals but especially BGR and BHB. Strong cold front moves through Sun afternoon with west winds potentially gusting to 25-30kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Expect gale force west winds late tonight into Friday on the back side of low pressure which will be tracking through the waters this evening. Seas building to around 7 feet. SHORT TERM: Gale force winds expected over outer waters Fro evening bfr diminishing to SCA levels thru Sat morning. Seas should remain below SCA levels beginning late Fri night thru the day Sat before increasing to abv 5ft late Sat night in srly swell. Seas will likely range from 8-12 feet on Sunday with winds possibly increasing above gale force once again. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Foisy Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Foisy/Farrar Marine...Foisy/Farrar

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