Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261705 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 105 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO REMOVED ISLD THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEAREST THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER. THE SUPERBLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE THE SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH PERIOD WITH COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF A BLEND OF SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE AT 5-6 SECONDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 8-10 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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