Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCAR 191109
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
609 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017
A weak surface trough will cross the region today. High pressure
builds into the area tonight and Friday. Another weak trough will
cross the area Saturday and will be followed by high pressure
Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will approach the region from the
south late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:09 AM Update...Light snow continues to fall across most of the
CWA early this morning. The snow will end from west to east across
the CWA by around midday. Additional snow accumulation will be an
inch or less, with the best chance of around an additional inch
across the eastern zones. Only minor tweaks to the forecast based
on the 6 AM observations and the latest radar and near term model
A shortwave trough is visible on water vapor satellite pictures
moving through Quebec early this morning. The trough axis will move
east of Maine by around midday. Areas of light snow across the
eastern zones this morning will wind down to flurries or isolated
snow showers by midday with any add`l accumulation an inch or less
this morning. Clouds will give way to breaks of sunshine across the
Down East Region by this afternoon, but stratus and stratocu will
likely hang tough across much of the Crown of Maine into this
evening. Temperatures this afternoon will be on the mild side for
what climatologically is the coldest time of year. Expect highs to
range from near 30 degrees in the Saint John Valley to the upper
30s in Bangor and near 40 degrees along the coast. Clear to
partly cloudy Down East tonight with clouds to gradually give way
to some breaks across northern areas later tonight. Lows will be a
good 15 to 20 degrees above average, with lows mostly from the
upper teens to mid 20s.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fairly quiet weather is expected for the end of the week as a
ridge of high pressure will slowly build across eastern New
England. This will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies both
Friday and Saturday, along with warmer than normal temperatures.
Once the ridge axis passes to our east on Saturday, expect
moisture to lift northward as winds turn to the south. In spite of
drier air aloft, this increasing moisture may be enough to spark a
few light showers or drizzle over Downeast areas, so have added a
slight chance of showers in these areas Saturday afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower 30s in the Saint John Valley to the mid
and upper 30s Downeast; Saturday will be the warmer of the two
days for southern areas as temperatures look to approach 40 along
the coast. Friday night`s lows will be in the mid and upper teens
north and the lower to mid 20s south.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Next week will have a quiet start, but the focus will then turn
to a potential mixed precipitation event for the Tuesday-Wednesday
High pressure will continue to dominate Sunday and Monday with fair
weather and above normal temperatures. Then low pressure is progged
to move from the mid-Atlantic eastward in the vicinity of the New
England coast Monday night and Tuesday and eventually south of Nova
Scotia on Wednesday. Warm air will stream northward out ahead of
this low, spreading across Downeast Maine Monday night and then into
northern areas on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Initially, the warm air
will be forced upward over the cold air at the surface, but
eventually it will be able to scour out the denser airmass and reach
the surface. There are still some model differences as far as exact
timing and placement of the warm air, but at this time a period of
mixed precipitation looks likely late Monday night through Tuesday
night. Temperatures will be mild enough for central and southern
locations of our forecast area to change over to rain both Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons, roughly south of a Houlton to Greenville
line. More northern areas will hang onto the wintry mix through a
good portion of the event. The precipitation looks to taper off to
showers on Wednesday as the low pulls away to our east.
The devil remains in the details as just a slight shift in the low`s
track or the northward extent of the warm air aloft could mean
drastic changes in precipitation type and amounts. Changes will
likely need to be made to the forecast as we draw closer to the
event and model trends become more clear. Please stay tuned for
later forecast updates on this developing situation.
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR with pockets of IFR in -sn this morning.
Conditions will improve to VFR by this afternoon at the Down East
terminals with VFR tonight. MVFR will likely continue from KPQI
north to KFVE this evening with improvement to VFR by Fri morning.
SHORT TERM: MVFR ceilings will threaten the northern terminals
much of the period, though a brief period of VFR is possible
Friday afternoon and then again Sunday night into Monday. BGR and
BHB meanwhile will likely remain VFR until after 00z Saturday,
then expect ceilings to lower to MVFR through 12z Sun, with
periods of IFR possible. Some light rain or drizzle is possible
Saturday afternoon, which may restrict visibility to below 5SM at
times. VFR should return Sunday afternoon, but ceilings will then
again lower to MVFR after 12z Monday.
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through tonight.
SHORT TERM: No headlines will be needed through the end of the week and
into the weekend. High pressure will cross the waters, keeping both
winds and seas well below Small Craft levels.