Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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975 FXUS61 KCAR 291647 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1247 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will approach from the south today and then move north across the region late tonight through Monday. A cold front will cross the area Monday night. Drier weather is expected Tuesday through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1245 PM update...Biggest challenge of the day so far has been precipitation placement and amounts. The model guidance is really struggling with these elements. The best continues to be the HRRR, and even that`s not having the best luck pinpointing where the band of showers will set up. For now have again leaned toward the HRRR with this update, but adjusted heavily for current radar trends. The steadiest rain has exited the region with a band of scattered showers stretching from Moosehead Lake down through central Washington County. This should become more isolated over eastern portions of the area through the afternoon, but convection can be seen crossing out of Quebec, so the western areas will remain showery. Added a slight chance of thunder in western areas of well since there`s been a few lightning strikes upstream. Also made adjustments to temperatures to match current trends. No other changes were needed. Previous discussion...Latest radar reflectivity imagery shows light rain across far northern Maine in association with a developing warm front at 850mb. Latest Hi-res model data continues to support the idea of light rain today, mainly across far northern Maine in the vicinity of the front, thus will keep pops close to 100 percent today across the far north. Most of the rain today should be confined to northern areas although a few showers could sneak down just north of the Bangor region. With a few lightning strikes showing up across western Quebec, will maintain isolated thunder across northern areas today. High temperatures today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday. Tonight will feature abundant cloud cover as a moist southerly flow prevails across the region with stratus clouds and patchy fog expected. A few showers can be expected from time to time. Lows will be in the 50s across most of the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Juicy airmass in place Monday with precipitable water values over 1.50 inches in most areas and a muggy feel with dewpoints around 60. Slightly concerned about potential for heavy downpours, but opted to leave out of forecast and just go with likely to low categorical PoPs based on modest dynamics and fairly low model QPFs. Timing of precipitation on Monday a bit tricky, though most models bring a round of showers with embedded storms in the morning, then a break in the afternoon, then a possible round of perhaps stronger storms in the north/northwest late afternoon/evening. Could be a few storms Tuesday as the actual cold front moves though. Less moisture to work with than Monday, though, and most storms if they do occur should be in the afternoon. Drier and somewhat cooler air moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday with a dry, mostly sunny day Wednesday with high pressure overhead. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure moves east Wednesday night which allows onshore flow to return. However, shower chances should hold off until Friday and Saturday. Onshore flow Thursday through Saturday will keep daytime temperatures a bit below average toward the coast, with near average temperatures in Northern Maine. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through early this morning with widespread shower activity affecting KFVE/KCAR/KPQI terminals. Conditions are expected to become MVFR at all terminals by this afternoon mainly due to lowering cigs. Widespread IFR conditions can be expected across the entire region tonight in lowering ceilings with even LIFR possible KBGR/KBHB due to a combination of fog and low ceilings. SHORT TERM: IFR likely areawide Monday morning. Some improvement to vfr most areas Monday afternoon except perhaps near the coast due to onshore flow. A few storms possible Monday. VFR for most areas Monday night, and VFR very likely areawide Tuesday through Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Areas of fog will reduce visibility to 1 to 3 nm at times tonight. SHORT TERM: South wind 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 5 feet Monday and Tuesday. Behind a cold front that passes late Tuesday, winds shift to the north and remain below small craft levels Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Hastings Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Duda/Hastings/Foisy Marine...Duda/Hastings/Foisy is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.