Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 150338 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1138 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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11:40 PM UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL AS A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS AS A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ORGNL DISC: MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE HYDRO SECTION BLO... AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING. UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: 840 PM UPDATE...NO SIGN OF LESS THAN VFR CLGS THIS HR AT ANY TAF SITES...NEVER MIND VSBY REDUCING FOG...SO WE MAY NEED TO BACK THE ARRIVAL TMG OF LOW CLDNSS AND FOG ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT THIS POINT. HI/MID DECK CLDNSS FROM THE SHWR BAND CURRENTLY SLOWLY CROSSING INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA IS LIKELY KEEPING SFC-LLVL TEMP-DWPT DEPRESSIONS FROM DECREASING...INITIALLY KEEPING LOW CLDNSS FROM FORMING OR SPREADING NWRD. STILL THINK AT LEAST LOW ST DECK AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE TNGT BASED ON SREF CLG/VSBY CAT PROBABILITIES...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR BY THE LATER ARRIVAL OF SHWRS. ORGNL DISC...STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS EVE AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM. THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE... SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM 12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ERLY WED AM... SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR REGION. TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...JORDAN AVIATION...VJN/DUDA MARINE...VJN/DUDA HYDROLOGY...KHW

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