Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 151106 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 606 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track to our north today. A cold front will approach tonight into Friday and cross the area Friday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 6:00 AM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point based on latest observations. No other changes. Low pressure will approach from the west today and pass to the north of the State Tonight. Expect mixed precipitation and rain to develop later in the morning across the north. Temperatures at the surface and aloft will quickly rise this morning, therefore expect almost all of the precipitation to be in the from of rain. Southern portions of the area will remain mostly cloudy. The rain is expected to end by late in the afternoon or early evening. A cold front will move across the region later tonight. Have used the precipitation from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of the NAM and GFS for precipitation type.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Weak low wl be scooting offshore at beginning of the pd as wv ejects off the coast acrs srn New England. Best chc for pcpn looks to be acrs Downeast zones initially with cold front dropping out of Quebec drg the mrng hrs. This wl lkly boost pcpn chcs acrs the north btwn 15z-18z with snow squall potential ovr along bndry. At this time it appears fropa wl occur acrs nrn zones shortly bfr noon and progressing south drg the day. Thus expect max temps in the mrng acrs the north and early-mid afternoon for srn areas. As temps warm thru noon may see rain/snow mix as far north as Greenville-Mars Hill line with rain briefly possible fm Houlton and points south in the aftn. As fropa occurs expect drastic cooldown to occur with snow squalls possible as winds gust 15-20kts as bndry mvs thru. NW flow expected drg the evng hrs wl lkly result in band of snow showers from the North Woods into eastern Aroostook as is typical drg the winter months. Nw winds continue thru daybreak on Sat bfr high pressure builds in fm the west. Temps wl rapidly drop overnight under clr skies tho with mixing continuing thru the nighttime hrs may only see mins drop blo zero acrs the North Woods. At this time wind chill temps overnight may fall just short of advisory criteria acrs the far north tho there is still plenty of time to re-evaluate potential for headlines. Highs on Sat wl rmn blo normal under caa. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure influences the wx thru about midnight Sat night before potential exists for wvs to affect area. Med range guidance conts to advertise low shifting offshore from the mid-Atlantic coast Sun mrng with GFS being the furthest south soln whereas last night it was furthest north. Therefore hv undercut for late Sat night by about 10% with general lochc pops for entire CWA on Sun as wk front brings pcpn into the region. Temps wl moderate on Sun to abv normal values with heights continuing to build into mid-week. Wmfnt lifts thru area Mon night with overrunning expected thru the day Tue. Wx scenario bcms a little more in doubt as we appch mid- week. GFS brings cold front thru Tue night while EC brings another wv up along bndry and keeps area in warm sector into Wed aftn bfr mvg front thru. Due to uncertainty wl side with Superblend for latter half of the long term. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions today and tonight. SHORT TERM: MVFR restrictions expected Fri morning. Southern terminals may be affected by light rain and low cigs as low pressure system moves across the Gulf of Maine while northern terminals may see localized MVFR/IFR restrictions as arctic cold front brings -shsn to terminals into afternoon. VFR likely at all terminals Sat with MVFR restrictions possible at BGR and BHB Sun morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained winds. For waves: Currently long period swell from yesterdays Gulf of Maine fetch is running around 5 feet/7 seconds. Expect this wave system to quickly subside today. Later today and tonight, southwesterly wind wave (around 4 feet/6 seconds) will become the primary wave system. Will use the NWPS to initialize the wave grids. SHORT TERM: Gale Watch issued for outer waters for Friday night into Sat morning as strong cold air advection occurs in wake of arctic front moving across the waters. SCA conditions may briefly return late Sat night for outer waters as low pressure moves south of the Gulf of Maine. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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