Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 201406
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1006 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016
High pressure will remain over the area today then move east into
the Maritimes tonight into Sunday. A strong cold front will approach
Sunday night and cross the area Monday morning. High pressure will
follow on Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WX/Sky grids needed adjustment to keep fog and low ceilings in
longer across nne areas such as the St. John Valley. Light winds
through 850 mbs per the CAR RAOB helping to keep low
clouds/moisture in longer this morning. Visible satellite imagery
showed clearing for all but the right near the Maine-New Brunswick
border. Northern areas will see sunshine by early afternoon. Cut
back temps a few degrees by the previous forecast for northern
areas due to the prolonged cloud cover.
Ridge axis bisecting CWA at this time with low stratus on the
move fm New Brunswick this mrng on ene flow per KCBW vad winds.
Expect low clds to begin to mv into the extreme eastern portions
of the state in the next hr and lkly plague far ern Aroostook
until mid- mrng bfr mixing out. Vly fog can be expected this mrng
as dwpt depression range fm 1-3 degrees as of 06z. Observer fm
Portage reported widespread vly fog and vly obs are reporting fog
off and on, thus expect this wl bcm more predominant twd daybreak.
As for this aftn outside of a few diurnal cu dvlpng expect mosunny
skies with srly flow bringing temps to just abv normal values - u70s
acrs the north and arnd 80F in downeast. Onshore flow wl keep
immediate coast cool this aftn.
Srly flow conts tonight as appchg system for Sun ngt/Mon winds up to
the west. This wl increase moisture acrs the area, leading to areas
of fog after midnight acrs Downeast. This wl lkly hv to be expanded
to other areas along with patchy fog mention.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure to our east combined with an approaching cold front
from the west will bring a warm and breezy day on Sunday as the
gradient between the departing high and approaching front increases.
Skies will be mostly sunny. Some clouds will begin to increase from
the west Sunday afternoon. A strong cold front approaching from the
west will push into the area late Sunday night bringing a band of
rain across the area. Some of the rain may be heavy. Soundings are
generally stable near the surface. However, some mid level
instability may result in embedded thunder as this band moves
through. Rain will continue into early Monday morning before
pushing off to the east with the front. Monday will then likely
remain mostly cloudy over the north as cool air moves in following
the front. Downeast will have clearing on Monday. A gusty cool
northwesterly breeze will make it feel like early fall.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night will be mostly clear and brisk as high pressure builds
to our south. This will be followed by a mostly sunny day Downeast
on Tuesday. A weak disturbance moving across the north may bring
some clouds and spotty showers to northern areas Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure to our south and upper level ridging will then bring
warmer temps on Wednesday with a mostly sunny day. Thursday will be
mostly sunny, warmer and more humid as surface high pressure shifts
to our southeast and south southwesterly winds funnel in increasing
warmth and humidity. The next front will then follow on Friday with
a chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms.
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected at FVE, BGR and BHB next 24 hours. CAR,
PQI and HUL will see ocnl MVFR/IFR restrictions in fog through
12z this morning. Low clouds moving in from New Brunswick may
bring MVFR cigs to these terminals and have included tempo group
to account for this. After 12z expect VFR remainder of taf valid
SHORT TERM: Some low stratus or fog may result in IFR conditions
in a few sites, especially Downeast, early Sunday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected Sunday into Sunday evening. Conditions
will lower to IFR Sunday night in rain. Low level wind shear is
likely late Sunday night into Monday morning for SSW winds 35kt at
2K ft as the cold front crosses the area. Conditions Monday will
begin IFR then improve to VFR Downeast by late morning and across
the north by midday. VFR conditions are expected Monday night
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain well below SCA criteria
through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in fog over the
water after midnight tonight into Sunday morning.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
Sunday through Monday. Some wind gusts may approach 20 kt late
Sunday night as the front approaches. A few wind gusts may
approach 25 kt late Monday into Monday evening in gusty NW winds
following the cold frontal passage.