Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 190622
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
222 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
High pressure will build across the region today and tonight. The
high will move east on Thursday. Low pressure approaching from
the west will bring the chance of rain Thursday night and Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front currently crossing the fa early this morning will push
east of the coast by daybreak. Low clouds and patchy fog early
this morning will give way to increasing sunshine and
unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures for this time of year.
Highs will range from around 60 degrees across the St. John
Valley to around 70 degrees across downeast.
High pressure will build east tonight with mainly clear skies
and light winds. Low temperatures will range from the mid to
upper 30s across the north and lower 40s downeast.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper low just west of James Bay Thursday is expected to have
a trough extending south into the central U.S. The upper trough
will move east and into the Great lakes and Ohio Valley Friday.
At the surface, a ridge across Maine Thursday morning moves east
during the day and into the Canadian Maritimes as broad low
pressure develops from central NY State southwest into West
Virginia. The low will deepen and track northeast Thu night into
western New England. A secondary low is expected to develop off
the Mid Atlantic Coast Fri morning, and this secondary low is
expected to track toward the Gulf of Maine Friday. Clouds will
increase Thursday with rain to likely develop later in the day
across the northern half of the CWA. Periods of rain and drizzle
are expected across the region Thu night and Fri. Precipitable H20
values are expected to increase to around 1.5", and some heavier
downpours of rain are possible, especially later Friday afternoon
as some tropical moisture may get entrained into the region from a
potential tropical or sub-tropical system off the southeast U.S.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure in the Gulf of Maine Fri evening is expected to deepen
and lift north of the state Fri night. This will cause a strong
cold front to move across the area later fri night into Sat morning.
Again, there maybe some tropical moisture ahead of the front that
could lead to some heavier pockets of rain. The models do differ
on the placement of the heavier rain Fri night. A much colder air
mass follows for the weekend and into the first half of next week
as an amplified pattern develops with an upper trough in New
England and an upstream ridge across the central U.S. Temperatures
will be colder than average Sun through Tue with the chance for a
few showers. It will likely be cold enough for a few snow showers
across northern Maine.
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Sub vfr conditions early this morning will give way to
VFR at all terminals after 12z. VFR conditions will then persist
SHORT TERM: VFR to start the day Thu will likely give way to MVFR
at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE as rain overspreads the
region. IFR expected to develop at the terminals Thu night into Fri
in rain and fog. Conditions will likely improve to MVFR by Sat
morning, and possibly to VFR at the Down East terminals.
Predominately MVFR over the weekend at the northern terminals and
VFR with pockets of MVFR at the Down East terminals.
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect thru 8 am,
winds/seas will then decrease below small craft advisory levels
and remain so through tonight.
SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory will likely be needed by Fri
night ahead of a strong cold front. Seas will likely build to 6
to 9 feet on the coastal waters. Small craft advisory conditions
will likely persist through the weekend in the cold air advection
behind low pressure that will lift north of the waters.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for