Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 270014
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
814 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016
High pressure will exit across the maritimes overnight while an
occluded front approaches from the west. The occluded front will
cross the region Tuesday. High pressure will build across the
region from Labrador Wednesday into Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will exit east across the maritimes overnight, while
an occluded front approaches from the west. Cloud cover will
increase across the region early tonight. Rain in advance of the
occlusion will then begin to expand east across the forecast area
later tonight. Have slightly slowed the eastward advance of rain
across the forecast area later tonight, particularly across
eastern areas nearest exiting high pressure, with this update.
Expect drier air with exiting high pressure will slow the advance
of rain across eastern portions of the forecast area. Overnight
low temperatures will generally range from the mid 30 to around
40 north, to the mid to upper 40s Downeast. Based on current
temperatures/dewpoints and the thickening cloud cover do not
expect frost to be much of a concern overnight. Have also
updated to adjust for current conditions along with overnight
temperatures and cloud cover.
The occlusion will weaken as it crosses the area Tuesday due to a
strengthening ridge towards Labrador. This high and a weak low
moving along the coast will induce a cool easterly flow that will
limit Tuesday`s high temperatures to near 50F in the Crown of
Maine. Highs will increase southward to near 60F for Bangor and
Ellsworth. Most of the precipitation will likely be towards the
coast where the low will track. Near the coast, pops remain
categorical for much of the day, but even the Washington County
coast will only receive 0.3 to 0.4 inches of rain. Towards the
north, less than a tenth of an inch is forecast for Fort Kent and
Presque Isle. As the front weakens and stalls over the area...and
the easterly flow strengthens...low clouds, patchy fog and drizzle
will develop in the afternoon for much of the area.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc low expected to be nearing Nova Scotia at the start of the pd.
Erly flow wl be supplying low-lvl moisture to the region and wl lkly
be trapped under inversion. Expect that rain wl begin to taper off
fm west to east drg the ovrngt and as it does so, areas of drizzle
and fog can be expected. Min temps on Tue mrng wl likely rmn in the
40s under extensive cld cvr and moisture.
Nerly flow conts drg the day Wed with inversion contg to trap low-
lvl moisture acrs CWA. Hv continued areas of drizzle acrs the
region. Assuming this holds true, maxes on Wed may be too
optimistic and wl need to be lowered by subsequent shifts.
Pattern expected to continue to nr the end of the pd as upr low
closes off ovr the Oh Vly. Details are uncertain with regard to
showers chcs acrs the region thus hv gone with mainly drizzle thru
the day on Thur as vry little frcg wl be present. Expect that temps
wl settle out blo normal thru the short term.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Our focus toward the end of the week will be on a broad area of low
pressure to out south, along the Mid-Atlantic coast, and how it
interacts with high pressure to our north. Moisture from this low
will likely push north far enough to bring clouds and some showers
to Downeast areas Thursday night into Friday while the north remains
partly cloudy. The moisture may push a bit further north on Saturday
bringing showers to the central part of our area with cloud and some
showers or patchy drizzle Downeast. Northern areas may become mostly
cloudy Saturday as this moisture pushes north. The Mid-Atlantic
surface low is then expected to weaken late in the weekend, but
moisture may push even further north into northern areas on Sunday
as the upper low begins to lift out of the midwest and into the
northeast. This will keep Sunday into Sunday night unsettled with
clouds and showers throughout the region. Some showers may linger
into Monday as the upper low pushes off to our east and cooler air
is pulled south across our region from Canada. A large area of high
pressure should then follow bringing clearing and dry weather
Tuesday through much of next week.
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will persist across the region into the
early morning hours. Conditions will then begin to lower to MVFR
levels across central/Downeast portions of the forecast area late
tonight. Conditions will lower to MVFR levels across northern
areas through Tuesday afternoon. Generally expect MVFR/IFR
conditions across central and Downeast portions of the forecast
SHORT TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR in drizzle and fog all terminals into
the middle of the week as significant low level moisture remains
locked across the state. Confidence in forecast is very low late
week into the weekend with conditions either VFR or IFR as upper
level low hangs back to the west.
NEAR TERM: Conditions are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels overnight into Tuesday. Visibilities will lower
in rain and patchy fog Tuesday.
SHORT TERM: Fog and drizzle expected once again Tue and Wed night
over the waters. Winds and seas may come up to SCA criteria on
Wed continuing through the end of the week, however confidence