Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201406 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1006 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area today then move east into the Maritimes tonight into Sunday. A strong cold front will approach Sunday night and cross the area Monday morning. High pressure will follow on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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950 AM Update... WX/Sky grids needed adjustment to keep fog and low ceilings in longer across nne areas such as the St. John Valley. Light winds through 850 mbs per the CAR RAOB helping to keep low clouds/moisture in longer this morning. Visible satellite imagery showed clearing for all but the right near the Maine-New Brunswick border. Northern areas will see sunshine by early afternoon. Cut back temps a few degrees by the previous forecast for northern areas due to the prolonged cloud cover. Previous Discussion... Ridge axis bisecting CWA at this time with low stratus on the move fm New Brunswick this mrng on ene flow per KCBW vad winds. Expect low clds to begin to mv into the extreme eastern portions of the state in the next hr and lkly plague far ern Aroostook until mid- mrng bfr mixing out. Vly fog can be expected this mrng as dwpt depression range fm 1-3 degrees as of 06z. Observer fm Portage reported widespread vly fog and vly obs are reporting fog off and on, thus expect this wl bcm more predominant twd daybreak. As for this aftn outside of a few diurnal cu dvlpng expect mosunny skies with srly flow bringing temps to just abv normal values - u70s acrs the north and arnd 80F in downeast. Onshore flow wl keep immediate coast cool this aftn. Srly flow conts tonight as appchg system for Sun ngt/Mon winds up to the west. This wl increase moisture acrs the area, leading to areas of fog after midnight acrs Downeast. This wl lkly hv to be expanded to other areas along with patchy fog mention.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure to our east combined with an approaching cold front from the west will bring a warm and breezy day on Sunday as the gradient between the departing high and approaching front increases. Skies will be mostly sunny. Some clouds will begin to increase from the west Sunday afternoon. A strong cold front approaching from the west will push into the area late Sunday night bringing a band of rain across the area. Some of the rain may be heavy. Soundings are generally stable near the surface. However, some mid level instability may result in embedded thunder as this band moves through. Rain will continue into early Monday morning before pushing off to the east with the front. Monday will then likely remain mostly cloudy over the north as cool air moves in following the front. Downeast will have clearing on Monday. A gusty cool northwesterly breeze will make it feel like early fall. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday night will be mostly clear and brisk as high pressure builds to our south. This will be followed by a mostly sunny day Downeast on Tuesday. A weak disturbance moving across the north may bring some clouds and spotty showers to northern areas Tuesday afternoon. High pressure to our south and upper level ridging will then bring warmer temps on Wednesday with a mostly sunny day. Thursday will be mostly sunny, warmer and more humid as surface high pressure shifts to our southeast and south southwesterly winds funnel in increasing warmth and humidity. The next front will then follow on Friday with a chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected at FVE, BGR and BHB next 24 hours. CAR, PQI and HUL will see ocnl MVFR/IFR restrictions in fog through 12z this morning. Low clouds moving in from New Brunswick may bring MVFR cigs to these terminals and have included tempo group to account for this. After 12z expect VFR remainder of taf valid time. SHORT TERM: Some low stratus or fog may result in IFR conditions in a few sites, especially Downeast, early Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected Sunday into Sunday evening. Conditions will lower to IFR Sunday night in rain. Low level wind shear is likely late Sunday night into Monday morning for SSW winds 35kt at 2K ft as the cold front crosses the area. Conditions Monday will begin IFR then improve to VFR Downeast by late morning and across the north by midday. VFR conditions are expected Monday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain well below SCA criteria through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in fog over the water after midnight tonight into Sunday morning. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA Sunday through Monday. Some wind gusts may approach 20 kt late Sunday night as the front approaches. A few wind gusts may approach 25 kt late Monday into Monday evening in gusty NW winds following the cold frontal passage. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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