Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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684 FXUS61 KCAR 060317 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1017 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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1005 PM UPDATE: JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE REMAINING SN HAS MOVED E OF THE FA ATTM...WITH JUST A FEW REMAINING SN SHWRS/FLURRIES OVR ERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REDUCE CLD CVR OVR THE MOST OF THE REST OF THE FA AND WE LOWERED WINDS IN BROAD VLYS FOR LATE TNGT BASED ON TEMPS ALREADY FALLING FAST OVR NW VLYS WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED FROM FASTER WINDS ALF. BASED ON THESE LATEST OBSVD TEMP TRENDS...OVRNGT FCST LOWS WERE LOWERED BY A FEW DEG OVR THE NW AND ABOUT A DEG OR TWO OVR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE N...WITH FCST HRLY TEMPS THEN UPDATED BETWEEN 9 PM AND 7 AM. ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WITH THE LOW IS STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SNOW ENDING. SNOW WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE. GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DOWNEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATER SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE. A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE FOLLOWED NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. VARIOUS IN- HOUSE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS FOR THIS FRONT. COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL WILL PRODUCE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE DAY DUE TO BOTH STRATOCUMULUS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE THE POPS NORTH TO COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD MIDWESTERN UPPER TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A VERY LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND ONLY GIVE US CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE LOW WILL BE SLIDING OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT NOW APPEARS THIS SECOND LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE BUT POORLY ORGANIZED TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A THIRD, VERY WEAK LOW MAY TRY TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING A NEW MASS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER LOW WILL POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF SOME VERY COLD AIR. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR AT BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR HUL NORTHWARD...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FVE AND CAR WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY MORNING...A SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE FROM FVE EARLY MORNING AND REACH HUL BY LATE MORNING. THIS LINE COULD FEATURE BRIEF PERIODS OF 1/4SM VIS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WE LOWERED THE GLW OVR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 TO AN SCA WITH WIND GUSTS STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 KT OVR OUR WATERS... OTHERWISE THE GLW CONTS OVR THE OUTER WATERS. ORGNL DISC...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF SUCH SHORT DURATION THAT IT`S PROBABLY BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINE IN PLACE. A GALE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

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