Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 211740
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
140 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016
High pressure will move east into the Maritimes this afternoon. A
strong cold front will approach tonight and cross the region
Monday morning. High pressure will build south of the area Tuesday
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low clouds and some fog still hanging tough along the immediate
coast. Visible satellite imagery showed clouds moving across the
Hancock and Washington County coast. lifting and burning off per
the latest visible satellite imagery and obs. Onshore flow(sse)
helping to keep temps cool in the 60s for the aforementioned
area. Further n and w...some cu developing along w/some high
cloudiness in association w/the cold front apchg from the wsw.
Increased the winds up some per the latest obs.
By 00z tonight, cdfnt is progged to be west of the international
border. Hires models hinting at potential pre-frontal trof axis to
dvlp in the evng spreading showers into nw zones twd 03z. H8 LLJ
wl increase to 40-45kts ovrngt with PW values progged to appch
1.75 inches, 2-3 standard deviations abv normal. This wl be aided
by RRQ of 100+ kt jet streak, noted on 00z H250 ua charts and
latest wv imagery.
Expect that the heaviest rain wl occur btwn midnight and daybreak
for wrn and cntrl zones, especially with all guidance indicating
sfc wv wl ride up along bndry in the mrng. For this reason hv
added in slgt chc thunder to Downeast zones bfr 12z. May need to
boost qpf amnts in these areas with later updates if convection
dvlps. This wud increase the potential for locally hvy rainfall
here in the mrng especially if lopres can delay the mvmnt of the
front. Lots of flies in the ointment rmn with this fcst. For now
think the best chc for widespread 1-1.5 inch amnts wl be acrs the
North Woods in area of max lift ovrngt.
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front will be crossing eastern parts of our area Monday
morning. Showers and perhaps some briefly heavier downpours will
taper off early Monday morning. Some embedded thunder is possible,
especially across some Downeast areas early. Otherwise, rain will
push east into the Maritimes with the cold front on Monday. Skies
will clear Downeast and partially clear across the north during
the day. This will give way to a mostly clear and cool night
Monday night as high pressure builds toward the east coast. The
high to our south will bring a seasonably warm day on Tuesday.
Downeast will be mostly sunny. A weak weather disturbance straying
across the north may bring some spotty showers to far northern
areas late Tuesday.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure south of the area will bring warmer and more humid
conditions on Wednesday with a mostly sunny sky as a southwesterly
breeze around the high pushes warmer air north across our area. We
will remain in southwesterlies north of the high on Thursday with
upper level ridging pushing across the area. This will bring mostly
sunny and very warm and breezy conditions on Thursday. A cold front
will approach Thursday night and cross the area early Friday with
some showers. The front appears to be fast moving and will likely
continue southeast allowing clearing from north to south on Friday.
This will be followed by a dry and cooler weekend as the high builds
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Low stratus working north off the ocean will bring ocnl
MVFR/IFR cigs this morning. Still some question as to how far
north stratus can advect, thus have tempo`d in SCT015 to PQI, CAR
and FVE. Feel more confident south of HUL. Expect VFR for majority
of the day with IFR expected once again for southern terminals
late in valid time with onshore flow.
SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in showers early Monday will improve
to MVFR then VFR by midday. VFR conditions are then expected to
prevail through Thursday as high pressure builds south of the
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain SCA criteria through
tonight. Areas of fog expected Monday morning ahead of the cold
SHORT TERM: A few winds gusts may approach 20 to 25 kt over the
offshore waters in gusty northwest winds following the cold
frontal passage on Monday. Winds will gradually diminish Monday
night into Tuesday then become southwesterly through mid-week as
high pressure builds to the south. Swell from tropical storm Fiona
will likely affect the waters this week and into next weekend.