Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281940 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT... THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG. SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST. CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT, LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...DUDA/VJN MARINE...DUDA/VJN FIRE WEATHER...DUDA

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