Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231522 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1122 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure will be positioned just to our north today, resulting in gusty winds and much colder temperatures. The low will slowly lift northward tonight through Tuesday, but winds will remain on the breezy side and temperatures will stay below normal through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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11:25 AM Update...Strong cold advection has resulted in temperatures dropping across the north and remaining steady downeast. Temps were updated to lower temps in many areas through midday. Precipitation coverage was adjustes. Band of rain (snow above 1K ft) has been moving across the northern and central areas, but will soon be moving off into New Brunswick with just some remaining spotty showers and drizzle. 635 AM update...No significant changes were needed this morning. Showers have been increasing in coverage this morning, particuarly across the north. Likely PoPs still look good there, with scattered wording elsewhere through early afternoon. Temperatures in the North Woods are in the md and upper 30s, so would anticipate some snow mixing in, especially over the higher terrain. Winds have dropped off over the past few hours, but expect they`ll pick back up as we head through the morning. Did make some adjustments to temps, winds, and PoPs to bring them into line with current conditions. Overall the forecast remains in good shape. Previous discussion...Gusty winds are the concern for today and tonight. A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of northern Maine for this afternoon and evening. This may potentially need to be expanded further south toward the coast. A 980mb low will slowly spin over southern Quebec today, very slowly shifting northward as it does so. The 00z model runs seem to have initialized this feature well, with much of the guidance within 1mb. Current progs indicate that the low will hold its strength or even deepen a bit more through the day today. Meanwhile, high pressure will build across the southeastern US, leading to a tightening pressure gradient and gusty winds. An 40-50 kt jet at 850mb will move across northern Maine this afternoon and evening, helping to increase the wind gust potential, particularly across the higher terrain of the North Woods. The one mitigating factor will be cloud cover which will limit mixing to some extent, but gusts of 45 mph are possible; any breaks of sunshine could result in gusts closer to 50 mph. The jet will peak over the area late this afternoon in the 20z-03z (4pm to 11pm) timeframe, but mixing will lessen once the sun goes down. Have therefore issued a Wind Advisory for all of our northwestern zones, particularly areas along and north of a Presque Isle to Greenville line. Effective time is 11 am to 8 pm as this will encompass the peak gusts. Downeast Maine, including the Bangor region, will be on the edge of the jet max, so potential peak gusts look to only be 30-35 mph. However, these areas have a better chance of seeing sunshine this afternoon. Also, with leaves still on the trees, branches may break resulting in power outages. Will go with a strongly worded Hazardous Weather Outlook for now, but the day crew will need to watch trends closely and may need to expand the Advisory further south. Other than the wind...the other item of note will be the temperatures, which will be a good 15-20 degrees colder than yesterday. Combined with the gusty winds, it will definitely feel like fall today. Scattered to numerous showers are expected to redevelop today as we get some heating, mainly over the north and west. Some of these showers may even fall as a rain/snow mix over the highest terrain the far north and west. For tonight...winds will abate somewhat as the low pulls away from the Pine Tree State and mixing decreases due to loss of daytime heating. It`ll still be breezy, though, with gusts of 20-30 mph. Shower activity will wane as well with the loss of heating. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s in the upper St John Valley to the lower and mid 30s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Quasi-stationary upper low pres near Labrador will keep cldnss and ocnl rn/sn shwrs to spcly nrn ptns of the FA Mon thru Wed. Sn shwrs will be the dominate precip type msly late at ngt and morn on Tue and Wed spcly across the hi trrn, with the best potential for any accumulating snfl will be late Mon ngt into Tue morn across the far N, again spcly across higher trrn where temps will be a couple of degs cooler. Shwrs will slowly dissipate durg the day Wed as as E-W upper trof left ovr from the departing upper low finally moves out to the E. Hi temps will be sig below avg for late Oct with Mon particularly brisk with gradually less wind for Tue and Wed. Ovrngt lows will also become progressively cooler each morn as colder llvl air slowly invades the FA, but not much below avg due to cld cvr and wind. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... With clrg skies and diminishing winds withe the apch of strong Canadian sfc hi pres, Wed ngt will likely be the coldest ngt of the Fall season so far, with coldest ovrngt lows in the teens ovr normally coldest NW vly lctns. Thu looks to be msly sunny and more pleasant with lgt winds, but still below avg temps. Models have now come into much better agreement with the next sfc low and associated s/wv system apchg our region from the great lks later Thu ngt thru Fri. The majority of the models give the region arnd a half inch of total event QPF, with steady rnfl tapering to sct shwrs Fri ngt. Depending if precip begins durg the late ngt hrs Thu ngt or early Fri morn, precip may begin as a brief mix of lgt rn and sn across the N with little if any in the way of sn accumulation, but the vast majority of this event looks to be rain at this point. Sat looks to be cool and drier, but with lingering SC cld cvr across the N. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread MVFR with occasional IFR conditions are expected much of today as low pressure moves north of the region. Ceilings will likely fluctuate in the 900-1800 ft range through the period. The northern terminals have the best chance of seeing IFR as showers will once again develop in these areas today. Conditions will improve late this afternoon into the evening as the sun goes down and showers wane and clouds begin to lift. Expect all terminals will be VFR by 00z Monday. The other concern is gusty winds, which will turn from south to west through the day. Gusts of 25 to 35 kt will be possible 15z-00z today. These should lessen a bit after 00z, but 20-25 kt gusts are still expected. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR bkn-ovc SC clgs and ocnly vsbys in rn/sn shwrs xpctd across Nrn TAF sites Mon thru Wed while Downeast sites hold msly low VFR. All sites becoming unlmtd VFR Wed ngt with clrg skies...contg thru Thu. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The Gale Warning remains in effect through today into tonight. Winds are currently 25-30 kt with gusts of 35-40 kt and this will be the trend through the day. Seas are 11-14 ft at this hour, but these will subside to around 10 ft by this evening as winds turn more westerly. Winds will subside a bit as well, so the Gale Warning should be able to be converted over to a Small Craft Advisory this evening. SHORT TO LONG TERM: A SCA pd will be needed Mon aft the ending of the GLW, possibly lasting into Tue morn for outer MZs050-051 while inner bay/harbor MZ052 will likely need a shorter SCA possibly into Mon eve. Aft a break later Tue thru Thu. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts ovr this ptn of the fcst. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001>006-010- 011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ052. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/MCB Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Hastings/VJN Marine...Hastings/VJN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.