Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 202233 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 633 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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633 PM UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO THE POPS/WX FOR THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NE TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY. LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED AT MILLINOCKET WITH MEASURABLE RAIN AT KOKADJO WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE KCBW 88-RADAR ESTIMATES UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH (0.75") IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST PISCATAQUIS COUNTY OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...BUT BELIEVE THE RADAR HAS LIKELY OVERESTIMATED RAINFALL IN THIS AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER A BIT LONGER AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED AND THAT WAS THE MAIN UPDATE. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONE AREA WHERE THERE CURRENTLY IS CONCERN FOR SOME SHOWERS IS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DOVER-FOXCROFT AND GREENVILLE AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING EAST AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER AS THESE SHOWERS ENCOUNTER THE HIGH IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH REFLECTIVITIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ONLY BEING DETECTED ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY DO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN OVER SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOTT COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH POPS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT EXPECT THE TREND TO BE TOWARD MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE SMOKE HIGH ALOFT FROM THE FIRES IN THE WEST ALSO ADDING TO THIS. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 50S...COOLEST WEST AND WARMEST EAST. FOR MONDAY, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A JET MAX AT 250 MB MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AREA WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN FAIR AND WARM AS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG AS EVIDENT BY MOST MODEL FCST 500 MB HTS MON NGT THRU TUE. WITH MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES...HI TEMPS TUE WILL REACH IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL INLAND...LOWER TRRN LCTNS... WITH THE FCST 925 MB THERMAL AXIS POINTING FROM THE WRN ME MTNS INTO NE ME ACCOMPANYING WSW SFC WINDS SUGGESTING THE WARMEST AFTN HI TEMPS OVR THE NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. AFT A WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SW BREEZE...WED WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM..BUT WITH A S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL QB SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE NE U.S. BY AFTN...CLDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA DURG THE AFTN...WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS LIKELY OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS. DUE TO THIS CLD CVR...HI TEMPS WED AFTN SHOULD BE A FEW DEG COOLER THEN TUE OVR THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BUT AS WARM IF NOT A DEG OR TWO WARMER OVR E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TMG OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR HI TEMPS... SINCE 925 TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO BE A COUPLE OF DEG C WARMER THAN TUE AFTN...MEANING THAT LCTNS RECEIVING AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING AFTN HIGHS OF 90 DEG F. REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...FCST MODEL MID TO LATE MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY MOD SHEAR ALF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH A FEW STORMS. A BRIEF SURGE OF PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL OF BRIEF HVY TO TORRENTIAL RNFL FOR SOME STORMS LATER WED AFTN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE ARE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS, AS IT DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD SLOW THE FRONT`S PROGRESS, STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE LOW HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. AS SUCH, THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION ARE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, MUCH OF THE STATE SHOULD BE DRY ALL DAY THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL DIFFERENCES. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THOUGH, FRIDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN QUEBEC. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED, BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS STILL HARD TO SAY FOR CERTAIN. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS MSLY FROM KHUL NWRD. MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN POTENTIAL SHOWERS, THEN VFR TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME. SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ARE SLATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST ATTM. WVS WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM LATE TUE NGT THRU WED WITH AN INCREASING SSW WIND FETCH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BASED ON GOING WITH 75 PERCENT OF LATEST WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH PERCENTAGE HAS DONE RELATIVELY WELL WITH WEAK TO MOD RETURN FLOW SRLY FETCHES. OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL OF MARINE ST/FOG WILL INCREASE...SPCLY LATE TUE NGT THRU WED AS LLVL TROPICAL AIR WITH HIGH NEAR SFC DWPTS BEGINS TO MOVE NWRD OVR ADJACENT PTNS OF THE GULF OF ME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...CB/HASTINGS/VJN

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