Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251313 AAB AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Caribou ME 913 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain to our northeast early today. Low pressure will approach from the southwest this afternoon into tonight then track across the Gulf of Maine on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9 AM Update...Primary change this hour is to lower temperatures just a tad based on morning observational trends. Gradually increasing high cloudiness attm is covered well in inherited forecast. Can/t rule out a stray shower this afternoon...but all in all a dry day with seasonal temperatures expected. 6 AM Update...Increased cloud cover just a bit Downeast where high clouds have spread across. Also, some minor adjustments to temps. Otherwise, no major changes this hour. High pressure over the Maritimes will remain in control of our weather today. The day will begin partly cloudy, then clouds will increase from the southwest this afternoon as moisture begins moving in from a trough of low pressure approaching from the southwest. Some light rain may begin to move into Downeast areas this afternoon into this evening as an initial surface wave of low pressure slides to our south and a band of moisture lifts up from the southwest. A stronger, more organized low will then lift north from the trough later tonight pushing a more substantial area of rain north into the area late tonight. By early Friday morning rain should cover central and Downeast areas with some light rain possibly pushing into the north. An increasing northeast wind will accompany the system as surface low pressure lifts into the Gulf of Maine.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... There are still some differences among the model guidance w/the latest low pres system which leads into the placement of rainfall. Low pres is expected to track across the Gulf of Maine on Friday w/rain being brought all the way into northern areas. The latest run of the ECWMF and Canadian Global are heavier w/the rainfall and bring more rain further n and w. The GFS and especially the NAM keep the far n and nw areas at 0.10 inches or less. This includes the St. John Valley and the Allagash. The upper low is forecast to remain across the Gulf of Maine w/the best forcing residing across the central and downeast areas. The GFS mid level forcing matches well w/this setup. The NAM is similar to this alignment as well. Thinking here is that the ECMWF and Canadian Global could be too heavy w/their rainfall and too far west given the upper low is further s and fills w/time as the system weakens pulling away. Confidence attm is not high enough to alter the daycrew`s assessment w/the rainfall across central and downeast areas. Therefore, decided to stay w/consistency on the forecast. This means rainfall amounts will vary from north to south w/0.10-0.25 inches for Northern Maine say from Caribou- Presque Isle n and w. From Houlton and Millinocket down through central and downeast areas, rainfall amounts will be 0.50-1.00 inch. Central and downeast areas could see heavier amounts as strong llvl convergence is noted by the NAM and even the GFS through early afternoon in these areas. Temperatures will vary as well w/nw areas including the St. John Valley seeing upper 50s to around 60 w/less rainfall expected while the rest of the CWA sees low to mid 50s. The rain is expected to quickly end by Friday evening and the low continues to pull away. The airmass looks like it will dry out especially above 850 mbs. Below that level, moisture looks like it will hang in w/a nne wind setting up. This is shown by the latest NAM and GFS soundings showing deep moisture holding below 850mbs. Therefore, low clouds expected which will keep temps up overnight. Drier for Saturday w/daytime temps rebounding back into the 60s. Some high clouds are expected to move in across the region as an upper disturbance moves across the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Unsettled weather looks like it will set up later Sunday and could very well continue into Memorial Day and beyond. Sunday was looking to be dry and pleasant day but the latest runs of the GFS and ECWMF want to lift a warm front across the northern tier of the CWA by Sunday afternoon. This would mean the possibility of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as some instability does look to be there. The Canadian Global is drier and shows the high to the ne holding in. Attm, confidence is low on this setup and decided on 20-30% pops across the Crown and nw areas and kept the rest of the CWA dry. Looking for upper 60s to around 70 w/the exception of the coast as temps could be colder due to a s wind off the cold Gulf of Maine waters. Unsettled pattern looks to be setting up from Memorial Day into Wednesday. A large low pres system is forecast to move slowly e from central Canada w/a series of disturbances moving across the New England region. These disturbances will bring showers to the region w/the most concentrated rainfall coming Tuesday into early Wednesday. Daytime temperatures look to be below normal during this stretch w/the aforementioned pattern setting up. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today. Conditions will likely lower to MVFR tonight across the area, then IFR Downeast by morning as rain and lower clouds move in. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions look to be possible from KHUL down to KBGR and KBHB while MVFR w/periods of IFR for n of KHUL. As it looks right now, conditions are expected to be at MVFR for all terminals Friday night into early Saturday w/a ne wind. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by midday Saturday and continue that way into Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA will stay for later today into tonight for northeast winds gusting up to 30 kt. High astronomical tides will result in strong tidal currents tonight through the Memorial Day weekend. This will be addressed in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. SHORT TERM: Still looking at SCA conditions for winds and seas into Friday afternoon. Winds will start to relax as the low pulls away but seas will stay up longer to around 6 ft or so due to sse swell component. Seas will drop off by midday Saturday as winds become light and seas subside below 5 ft. These conditions will continue into Sunday as high pres builds across the region. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term Update...Arnott/GYX is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.