Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180216 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 916 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region this afternoon and tonight. A weak low pressure system will approach from the northwest on Saturday and cross northern Maine Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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9:16 PM Update...Low pressure over the Strait of Belle Isle will get absorbed into a low over the Davis Strait overnight. Weak high pressure in the Hudson Valley of NY State will crest over Maine by 12Z Sat. Low pressure passing just north of Lake Winnipeg this eve will move into western Ontario overnight with a warm front to set up across western NY State. The wind has diminished this evening, but in most areas has not come close to decoupling yet, and is still a bit gusty in spots. The wind will continue to settle down over the next few hours, and will become light in the pre-dawn hours as the surface ridge builds closer the region and the low levels more fully decouple. A clear sky is expected most of the night, with some increase in high cloud toward morning well in advance of low pressure. Only minor tweaks to the forecast based on the 9 PM observations, and the latest satellite and near term model trends. Previous discussion... Winds will gradually die off this evening as the high pressure builds. This presents a challenge in terms of tonight`s lows as a narrow window of radiational cooling develops between the time winds decrease and upper level clouds increase ahead of an approaching warm front late tonight. With that in mind, have gone with a range of 5-10F in the usually colder spots and lower teens elsewhere. A band of thicker upper level clouds well ahead of the surface warm front will cross the forecast area Saturday morning and may even include a brief burst of snow showers for northern zones by late morning. A quick dusting is possible. In the afternoon, skies will start clearing towards Bangor, Milo and Ellsworth. In a warming air mass, this sunshine will generate some highs in the mid to upper 30s. Towards Aroostook County where clouds will hold all day, highs will reach the upper 20s to lower 30s. With the warm air advection, expect highs will be later in the afternoon rather than directly aligned with peak daytime insolation.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure is expected to approach the region from the northwest Saturday Evening then move across the area late at night. This system is expected to bring light snow across northern areas Saturday night into Sunday. Colder air will then build in behind the system Sunday evening. Strong high pressure will then build in from the west Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong high pressure will then crest over the state early Tuesday Morning then move to the east Tuesday Night. A cold front will approach from the west and move across New England during the day Wednesday and produce snow showers. Weak high pressure will build across the state Thursday and crest over the region Friday Morning. Intense low pressure will move through he Great Lakes and into Canada late Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Predominately VFR conditions are forecast. A period of -sn may produce MVFR ceilings and visibilities from KHUL north to KFVE Sat PM. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR/MVFR conditions Sunday and Monday. VFR Conditions are expected Tuesday. MVFR conditions are expected Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Extended the small craft advisory into the early morning hours for the coastal zones. As of 9 PM still have sustained wind around 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. The wind will slowly diminish overnight as a weak surface ridge builds toward the waters from the west. Towards later in the afternoon Saturday, winds and seas will increase towards another potential SCA event. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained winds. For waves: Southerly wind wave is expected to dominate Sunday into Sunday Night. Winds are then expected to go off-shore Monday
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&& .CLIMATE... So far this month the average temperature at Caribou of 7.3 degrees (F) is 4.9 degrees below average. At Bangor, the average temperature of 16 degrees (F) is 3.1 degrees below average. A total of 37.4 inches of snow has been observed at Bangor so far this month. It ranks as the 5th snowiest February on record at Bangor. The all-time snowiest February was in 1969 when 58 inches of snow was observed. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>051.
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&& $$ Near Term...CB/MCW Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...CB/MCW/Mignone Marine...CB/MCW/Mignone Climate...CB

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