Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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470 FXUS61 KCAR 302329 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 629 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A developing area of low pressure will move through the Gulf of Maine tonight into Thursday. This will result in snow once again across northern Maine..heavy at times very late tonight into early Thursday afternoon and mostly rain for Downeast. A left over trough of low pressure over the region Friday into the weekend will keep cloudy skies and occasional snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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6:29 PM...Another winter storm on the way for far northern Maine. Pressure falls are showing up this evening off the NJ coast where low pressure is expected to develop later this evening, and then move into the Gulf of Maine by 12Z Thu. The low is expected to track along or very close to the Maine coast during the day Thu. Another rain event for Down East areas including the Greater Bangor Region, with heavy snow across far northern Maine. There will be a sharp cutoff and transition zone in southern Piscataquis County, central Penobscot, and perhaps into parts of southeast Aroostook County where snow will mix with sleet and change to rain. The highest totals are expected across central and northern Aroostook County, where some spots will likely see in excess of a foot of snow. The ongoing forecast handles this all well, with only minor edits based on the 6 PM observations and latest radar and near term model trends. Previous discussion... Most models agree that far Nrn ME will receive another heavy sn event, with milder sfc-925mb temps making this a wetter, heavy, sn event than the last. Sn to liq ratios, therefore will be lower, but total fcst QPF of 1.00 to 1.50 inches will be greater than the last event, giving a very good bet of heavy wet snowfall amts. With sn already on trees from prior events, the addition of more hvy wet sn in the presence of some Erly winds could cause tree branches to snap, resulting the potential of downed power lines. Further south ovr NW...N cntrl and E. Cntrl ME, models indicate potential of mixing with sleet and rain, especially from and S of a Houlton...Patten to Greenville line. Subsequently, confidence is not as high with warnings across zones 5...6 and 10. Snow amts will sharply drop across E Cntrl Maine into Downeast areas due to the presence of milder maritime air from the Gulf of Maine as the sfc low tracks alg the Downeast coast. Several models, especially lesser domain high resolution models indicate the best banding potential across Nrn ME Thu morn into the erly aftn, where sn rates could reach 1.5 to 3.0 inches per hr attms in the presence of big sn flks. Precipitation should wind down from west to east across the region during the aftn and erly eve.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will moving away through the Maritimes Thursday night. Some moisture wrapping around the low in combination with the upper level trough over the north will result in some snow showers over northern and western areas. Downeast will remain cloudy but should be mainly dry. Some snow showers may continue over the north and west Friday into Friday night as a surface trough backs south across the area and the upper trough exits to the east. A light additional accumulation of snow is possible over some of the higher elevations across the north and west. Drier air should finally press south into the region from the north on Saturday bringing some breaks of sunshine and cooler air. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Pretty quiet weather expected through this period with no significant storms expected. Expect mainly dry weather conditions with nothing more than a few snow showers from time to time. Temperatures through the period will average below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR clgs all sites erly this eve will lower to IFR from SW to NE across the region later this eve into the ovrngt, with sn dominating nrn sites, and mixed precip of rn prevailing across Downeast sites well into Thu. SHORT TERM: IFR To MVFR conditions can be expected across the north Thursday night into Friday with MVFR to VFR conditions Downeast. MVFR to IFR conditions are likely in low clouds throughout the area Friday night. Conditions should improve to MVFR over the area on Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: We went with a short duration gale wrng for late tngt thru Thu morn with SCA winds ramping up into the ovrngt and subsiding Thu aftn. We used the multi model wv blend for fcst wv hts. SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed for wind gusts up to 25 kt over the offshore waters Thursday night. Conditions should then be below SCA Friday into Saturday as winds diminish a bit. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Thursday for MEZ001-002. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Thursday for MEZ003-004- 010. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Thursday for MEZ011-031. Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Thursday for MEZ005-006. MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052.
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