Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170904 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 404 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will track into the Canadian Maritimes today. High pressure builds in on Saturday ahead of the next low pressure tracking along the international border on Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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991mb low currently located in vicinity of St. John NB as of 08z and tracking east and eventually twd the Maritimes tda. H5 low is right ont its heels as it spins thru the Downeast coast tonight. Pcpn conts to wrap arnd lopres center with heaviest echoes from CBW confined to New Brunswick. Northern Aroostook cnty has gone over to all snow as of about 30min ago but areas near Houlton rmn rain. Echoes continue to weaken ovr the past hr with main frontogenesis shifting east in Canada. Expect this trend to continue this mrng with lkly-categorical pops thru 12z this mrng acrs far ern Aroostook bfr winding down to snow showers aft this time. Given isothermal profile thru the bulk of the overnight hrs and rain lasting 2-3 hrs longer than anticipated hv cancelled winter wx advisory for nw Aroostook with highest terrain possibly picking up 3-4 inches by mrng. Elsewhere, snow amnts shud rmn arnd 1-2 inches. Temps expected to rmn fairly steady this mrng bfr beginning to fall shortly aft noon. Cold advection wl allow strong winds to mix down this aftn with potential for 30-40 mph wind gusts from the northwest until late afternoon. Temps expected to dip into the uteens/nr 20 tonight as nw winds continue to filter in cldr air. Clr skies wl allow temps to drop tho winds wl lkly keep them fm reaching their lowest point.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Another mixed precipitation event is expected over the weekend, with snow, rain, and freezing rain possible. Saturday will start off dry as high pressure crosses the region. This will be followed by strengthening low pressure which will lift to our west. Clouds will increase from west to east during the day Saturday, and western areas may see some rain late as warm air advection begins aloft. Highs will range from the mid 30s north to the lower and mid 40s Downeast. The warm advection begins in earnest Saturday night as the low treks up the Saint Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will fall a bit early in the evening, but expect them to rise through much of the overnight hours as the warm air advection begins in earnest. Precipitation will also move in overnight Saturday night and continue into Sunday morning. Downeast areas will see mainly rain, but areas along and north of a Danforth to Dover-Foxcroft line will start out as with a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain, and perhaps a little sleet, as colder air at the surface will be slower to scour out there. As temperatures rise overnight, mixed precipitation will gradually change over to all rain from south to north. The exact timing of this changeover is hard to pin down at this point, which means snow and ice accumulations are still a bit uncertain. However, at this time we`re expecting most areas will see an inch or less of snow, with up to a tenth of an inch of ice, especially over portions of the North Woods. For Sunday...outside of the more sheltered locations in the upper St John River valley which may still be near freezing, expect all precipitation will have turned over to rain by 8 am or so with temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Widespread steady rain will continue through the morning hours, then it should taper to showers from south to north during the afternoon as the low moves north of the region. Winds will turn to the west late in the day, ushering in colder air and changing any lingering rain showers back over to snow by the evening. Sunday`s high temperatures will be in the lower and mid 40s north, lower to mid 50s Downeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Wrap around snow showers will be possible over northern areas Sunday night into Monday. High pressure briefly builds across Monday night and Tuesday, leading to cool but dry weather. Northern areas will see more chances for snow showers Tuesday night through Thursday as low pressure moves just to the north of the St John Valley. Temperatures will remain near to below normal through the week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Terminals will be in and out of MVFR/IFR restrictions this morning. FVE will see IFR or LIFR in low clouds and -sn thru daybreak before slowly improving. Remaining northern terminals will see IFR in -ra before mixing with and changing to -sn in the next several hours. Expect improvement by 15z to MVFR as cigs rise to nr OVC015. Southern terminals likely to see IFR or MVFR this morning before improving to VFR toward daybreak. Gusty nw winds will kick in after 12z with gusts appchg 30kts during the afternoon. SHORT TERM: All terminals will see prevailing VFR through 21z Saturday. Then expect conditions to deteriorate thereafter as precipitation spreads from west to east. Southern terminals will remain rain through the night, but the northern sites will likely be a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain 00z-12z Sun. IFR conditions are likely during that time frame, and may linger until 18z Sunday at the northern sites. Conditions will improve to MVFR from south to north after 18z Sunday as precipitation winds down, though some rain and snow showers should linger at FVE and CAR through Sunday night; IFR possible in any precipitation. MVFR conditions north and VFR south expected 12z Monday through Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Gale warning will start this morning and likely continue into the evening as winds gust to aoa 35kts throughout the day in wake of low pressure moving east into the Maritimes. Seas will increase above 5 feet this morning before dropping around midnight tonight. SHORT TERM: Headlines will likely be needed over the weekend as a strengthening low pressure lifts to the north of the waters. This will result in increasing south winds late Saturday through Sunday, becoming west Sunday night. Small Craft conditions will be likely Saturday night right into early next week. Gales will be possible Sunday afternoon and night.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Farrar/Hastings Marine...Farrar/Hastings

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