Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 101533 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1033 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TNGT...BRINGING HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH ONE LAST RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW

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