Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 192338 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 738 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build across the region tonight through Saturday then move east Sunday. A cold front will cross the region Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Update... High pressure will build across the region tonight. The extensive diurnal cloud cover which occurred across northeast portions of the forecast area this afternoon is now dissipating. Models indicate better low level moisture persisting across New Brunswick, with lesser low level moisture across western portions of the forecast area, overnight. The low level moisture could help support more clouds or patchy fog across eastern portions of the forecast area overnight, with generally clear skies across the remainder of the forecast area. Overnight low temperatures will generally range from around 50 to the lower 50s north, to the mid to upper 50s Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight cloud cover and temperatures. Previous Discussion... High pressure will remain in place producing dry conditions through the day Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will generally range from the upper 70s to around 80 across the forecast area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Period will begin with broad southwest flow as the area is sandwiched between North Atlantic high pressure and an approaching surface cold front from the Ohio valley. On-shore flow to develop Saturday night, a marine layer could push into coastal Downeast bringing fog and low stratus to the coast. The NAM is the most aggressive with the low level moisture fetch, didn`t go overboard but increased cloud cover and pushed morning fog further inland for a short period Sunday morning. Marine layer should burn off on Sunday morning, with high and mid-level clouds streaming in as a surface cold associated with a 500mb shortwave trough pushes in from the Ohio River valley Sunday night. Timing looks good with most model guidance for the rain to start out in the Northwoods by late evening and will push through the state from west to east through the night. A brief period of heavy rain and a rumble of thunder could be possible along the surface frontal boundary. Models have trended down on the QPF over the last 24 hours, but still looks like a good soaking with a general .75-1.00 inches of rain. Front will push out of the area across Downeast on Monday morning, with a few lingering showers across the North, but clearing elsewhere. It will be a cool day with highs in the 70s with NW flow across the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Relatively quiet weather expected Tuesday through Thursday as surface high pressure looks to build across the region, with broad ridging off the Atlantic seaboard. Expect a warming trend after the quick cool down on Monday and Tuesday. Warm SW flow becomes re-established by Tuesday night with above average temperatures expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Next chance for rain looks to be on Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Variable conditions are possible with any patchy fog later tonight through early Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the region tonight through Saturday. SHORT TERM: LIFR conditions possible Saturday night at KBHB/KBGR with a marine layer bringing low stratus and coastal fog. Conditions should improve as the fog burns off Sunday morning. A surface cold front will bring IFR conditions to all TAF terminals Sunday night into Monday morning with brief periods of moderate to heavy rain expected. Conditions will improve Monday afternoon as clearing is expected behind the cold front. VFR conditions are expected Tuesday/Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels tonight through Saturday. SHORT TERM: Southerly moist flow expected on Saturday night through Sunday ahead of an approaching surface cold front. Fog and low visibilities possible over the waters. Southerly winds could increase up to 20kts during the day on Sunday. Front will push across the waters late Sunday night through Monday morning. Seas and winds are expected to stay below SCA conditions at this time. High pressure will build over the waters Monday afternoon.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Mignone Short Term...Dumont Long Term...Dumont Aviation...Norcross/Dumont Marine...Norcross/Dumont

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