Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 240446
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1246 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Strong low pressure will remain to our north overnight and
Monday. The low will weaken and move east Tuesday into Wednesday.
High pressure will cross the region Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --1245 AM update...No significant changes were needed with this
update. The biggest adjustment was to reduce PoPs across the north
and west as the latest radar imagery shows showers lifting into
Canada. Have therefore gone with isolated showers across the St
John Valley only. Otherwise, made tweaks to temps, sky cover, and
winds to match the latest obs. Overall the forecast is in good
Previous Discussion....Some spotty rain and snow showers are
possible across the far north tonight. Otherwise, tonight will
remain mostly cloudy over central and northern areas with partial
clearing Downeast. Moisture wrapping around the low in Eastern
Canada will back south across the area on Monday keeping the
region mostly cloudy, except for partial sunshine along the coast.
Some spotty rain showers, and snow showers over the west, will
continue. Winds will remain gusty but are expected to be lighter
than they have been today.
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trof remains across the region Monday night through
early Wednesday, then begins to move east later Wednesday, while
several disturbances move through the trof. A surface trof also
begins to move across northern areas Monday night, moves south
across the forecast area Tuesday, then exits Tuesday night. Expect
rain/snow showers across northern areas Monday night into
Wednesday. Based on diurnal temperatures, expect precipitation to
trend toward mostly snow showers from the evening through the early
morning hours then to rain showers through the morning into the
afternoon. Across higher terrain areas, expect precipitation to
remain mostly snow showers. Across Downeast areas, expect
rain/snow showers overnight with rain showers through most of the
morning and afternoon. Expect the most numerous rain/snow showers
across northern areas Monday night through Wednesday, with lesser
chances Downeast. An upper level disturbance and surface trof will
bring the most extensive snow showers across northern areas Monday
night into early Tuesday where light snow accumulations are
possible. Otherwise, with cold air aloft and moisture with the
upper trof expect mostly cloudy skies across the region.
Temperatures will be at below normal levels Tuesday/Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds finally decrease Wednesday night as the persistent upper level
low over the Canadian maritimes finally kicks off to the east.
With high pressure building in, clearing skies, and a cold
airmass, Wednesday night has the potential to be awfully chilly.
Went colder than most guidance for temperatures Wednesday night in
NW portions of the area including the North Woods, where the high
pressure will be building in first.
Mostly sunny and chilly Thursday, but the high pressure will be very
short-lived with increasing clouds late in the afternoon ahead of
the next system. Very good model agreement on the timing of the
next system for it still being several days out, with
precipitation moving in late Thursday night or Friday morning. It
may briefly start as a mix over Northern Maine, but not very
concerned about accumulations as warm advection should quickly
change everywhere over to all rain. Not a particularly juicy
system...probably a half inch or so of rain for most areas Friday,
with the rain perhaps lingering into Friday night and Saturday.
Friday night and Saturday is when model agreement goes from quite
good to poor. Quite a bit of uncertainty in when the precipitation
tapers off (does it end late Friday or linger into Saturday?).
Also, a good deal of uncertainty as to how cold it gets Sunday
behind the system.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally MVFR conditions are expected across the
north tonight with VFR conditions downeast. Strong winds both
surface and aloft and deep mixing due to cold air advection will
result in strong gusty winds and potential turbulance across the
region tonight into Monday.
SHORT TERM: Generally expect MVFR conditions across the north and
mountains Monday night through Tuesday, with occasional MVFR
conditions possible Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are
possible across the entire region Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with the best chances across the north and mountains. Expect VFR
conditions Thursday. Conditions will then lower to IFR/LIFR
levels Thursday night, with MVFR/IFR conditions expected Friday.
NEAR TERM: The GLW fro the intra-coastal zones was downgraded to a
SCA through 8 am. The GLW for the outer waters remains in place
through 8 AM. SCA is likely on Monday. Strong winds and deep
mixing due to colder air over the relatively warmer waters has
resulted in very high seas, especially off the Washington County
coast where seas have topped 18 ft. Seas will remain high tonight
into Monday as the winds continue.
SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Monday
night into Wednesday.
-- Changed Discussion --ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ052.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050-051.
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