Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 120843 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 343 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS OUR AREA. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CURRENT WIND CHILL HDLNS OVR THE NW AND XTRM NE ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...WITH ACTUAL WIND CHILL ADV CRITERIA ONLY BE MET OVR MSLY HIER TRRN LCTNS. OTHERWISE...STILL A FAINT SN SHWR STREAMER EXTENDING OVR MARS HILL FROM KPQI...BUT THE LATEST RADAR TREND IS TOWARD DISSIPATION...SO WE DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTION OF SN SHWRS IN THE FCST FOR TDY ATTM. HI TEMPS WILL BE SIG COLDER TDY...RANGING FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS OVR THE XTRM N TO MID TEENS ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST. CLDS WILL INCREASE TNGT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER S/WV APCHG FROM CNTRL CAN. SCT SN SHWRS AND STEADY LGT SNFL WILL MOVE INTO THE FA FROM THE WSW LATE TNGT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG ACCUMULATING SNFL BEGINNING ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST OF HANCOCK COUNTY BY DAYBREAK AS AN INVERTED NORLUN SFC TROUGH ORIENTATED TOWARD THIS PTN OF THE FA FROM THE GULF OF ME SHARPENS. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE COLDEST OVR NE VLYS...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN OVC FREE LONGEST INTO THE NGT. ELSEWHERE...OVRNGT LOWS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE LATE NGT HRS...WITH TEMPS RECOVERING LATE UNDER THICKER CLD CVR AND AN ESE SFC WIND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS COULD BE THE BIGGEST NORLUN EVENT IN MANY YEARS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER TO OVER H600 MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 OR MORE INCHES AN HOUR. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH NORLUN TROUGHS...THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE IT SETS UP. MOST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FAVOR COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY FOR THE INVERTED TROUGH LOCATION THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER IN THE DAY AS IT WEAKENS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM CONTINUES MAINTAIN THE TROUGH LOCATION JUST WEST OF PENOBSCOT BAY IN THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA. THESE TROUGHS ARE OFTEN AN ALL-OR-NOTHING PROPOSITION WITH A VERY HIGH BUST POTENTIAL DUE TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE VERY NARROW WITH SHARP GRADIENTS AND DO NOT NECESSARILY EXTEND INLAND AS FAR AS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A COMPOSITE APPROACH WITH AMOUNTS REACHING 15 INCHES IN COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WITH A SHARP CUTOFF EAST OF MACHIAS DUE TO HIGH SNOW RATIOS ALONG THE NARROW SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. THE CONCERN REMAINS THAT IT WILL END UP ON THE OTHER SIDE OF PENOBSCOT BAY AS THE NAM12 HAS BEEN SHOWING WITH MINIMAL SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AS THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS INCREASE. ELSEWHERE...SOME SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED INLAND ALONG THE NARROW INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NW TOWARDS BANGOR AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER TO 3-4 INCHES. HAVE CONCERNS THAT FORECAST SNOW TOTALS IN BANGOR ARE TOO HIGH BASED ON THE NATURE OF NORLUN TROUGHS AND THE PROPENSITY OF GUIDANCE TO EXTEND QPF TOO FAR INLAND. IT WILL DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS NEAR 10F TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND LOW-MID 20S ON THE COAST. WINDS PICK UP LATE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO -20 TO -30F BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE AND THE EXPECTATION THAT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IF THE RIDGE CRESTS SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR -15F IN THE ALLAGASH AND ZERO TO MINUS 10 THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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EXPECT SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY WITH OVERRRUNING SNOW BREAKING OUT DURING THE NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING. VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS 50F ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND 40S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE TRACK OF THE LOW NOW SEEMS TO BE SOLIDLY WEST OF THE STATE. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...HIGH WINDS AND FLOODING. THE WESTERN TRACK MITIGATES THE HEAVY RAIN RISK TO SOME DEGREE AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES WEST OF THE STATE. TOTAL QPF INCLUDING THE INITIAL SNOWFALL NOW STANDS AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES. NONETHELESS...THE RAINFALL AND WARM ADVECTION RAISES FLOOD CONCERNS DUE TO SNOWMELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE HIGH WIND THREAT TO THE FOREFRONT. A LLJ IS PROGGED TO REACH A STRENGTH OF 80 TO 90 KTS WITH STRONG POTENTIAL FOR MIXING SOME OF THOSE WINDS TO THE SURFACE NEAR THE COAST. DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES WILL POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IN THE USUAL SPOTS MUST ALSO BE CONSIDERED. THE WARMTH WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED...24 TO 36 HOURS...AS COLD AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR MOVING IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH CONCEIVABLE.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TDY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CLG INTERVALS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN TAF SITES. CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT OVR DOWNEAST SITES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SN WITH THE NORLUN TROF WHILE CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WITH SN SHWRS LOWER TO MVFR OVR NRN TAF SITES. SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT LIFR AT BGR AND BHB SATURDAY DUE TO SNOW. IFR TO LIFR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO SNOW AND LOW CIGS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA AND FZG SPY ADV FOR OUR MZS INTO ERLY AFTN...AT WHICH POINT BOTH WILL BE LOWERED ONLY TO BE RE-ISSUED AS NEW HDLNS FOR BOTH WIND AND FZG SPY AGAIN LATER SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS TDY AND TNGT. SHORT TERM: A GALE IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH FZG SPY HDLNS. A STORM IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>004- 010. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ015-016-029. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

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