Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 050844 AAA AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Caribou ME 344 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 Updated the long term section .SYNOPSIS... High pressure that currently lies over New England this morning will move east into Canada this afternoon. A weak trough of low pressure will move across the area late this afternoon into this evening. High pressure will return on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A ridge of high pressure will gradually build east across the region this morning and exit into New Brunswick this afternoon. A weak trough will follow in its wake, moving off MA/NH coast late this afternoon and crossing the Gulf of Maine overnight. The band of light snow associated with this trough which is currently draped across central NY/eastern PA will move into our western sections by mid to late morning and then spread eastward across central/Downeast Maine through the afternoon and evening. Snow accumulations will be minor, generally around an inch from Greenville down through Bangor to southern Hancock and Washington Counties. Locations north and east of the Katahdin area will get a half inch or less; the Saint John Valley will get a dusting at best. Today`s high temperatures will range from the lower 20s in the Crown of Maine to around 30 in Bangor and Downeast. The immediate coast will top out right around freezing, so some rain may mix in with the snow this afternoon. The trough will weaken as it pushes across eastern Maine overnight. As such, expect snow will come to a gradual end from north to south through the evening hours, lingering past midnight across far Downeast. It`ll be another cold night over northern Maine with temperatures dipping into the single digits. Lows are expected to be in the teens to around 20 from the Central Highlands down to the coast. Patchy freezing fog will be possible in the north, particularly in river valleys and near any open water. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure both sfc and aloft will build across the region Tuesday. The challenge in the north will be shallow inversions and the possibility of low cloud and fog. If the low clouds form they could hang tight all day Tuesday across northern areas. The Down East region should have a m/sunny day. Highs Tuesday will range from the mid 20s north to around or a bit above the freezing mark in the Greater Bangor Region. The ridging moves east Tue night as low pressure tracks just north of the Great Lakes and another low develops off the Delmarva coast. A surface trough will extend from the Great lakes Low and into western New England late Tue night. High clouds will increase Tue night with most areas to be cloudy or at least mostly so Wed. Tough to say how things will evolve with low clouds/fog in far northern Maine Tue night, but would expect a good deal of cloud cover. The best chance of fog will occur if there are breaks in the clouds. A bit of overrunning during the day Wednesday may lead to little bit of very light snow or flurries, especially across the northern and western zones, with a few sprinkles or flurries Down East in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The latest 00z GFS and Canadian have late week low development east of the Maritimes with no big snow event for the CWA. The 12Z/4th ECMWF still had a significant low that tracks right along the Maine coast Thu night to near Eastport by 12Z Fri. About 2/3`s of the 12Z ECMWF ensembles have no significant storm, with about 1/3 having advisory to warning level snowfall. The 00z/5th ECMWF now has a much weaker low with most of the development taking place east of the Maritimes. None of the 50 00z ECMWF ensemble members have significant snowfall across the area with a fairly tight clustering of low pressure developing east of Nova Scotia at 12Z Fri. As the long range guidance is now in much better agreement will go in that direction with the forecast with chance PoPs instead of likely PoPs for Thu night. It is likely that later shifts will be able to continue this trend of reducing the Pops. Cold air follows for next weekend with some snow showers likely at times, especially across the Crown of Maine. Temperatures next weekend are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees below average, and the coldest air mass of the early winter season. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the northern terminals through 12z Tue, with just occasional MVFR visibility possible in freezing fog early this morning and again early Tuesday morning. Ceilings will lower to 1500- 2500 ft this afternoon at BGR and BHB as light snow moves in from the west. Visibility will drop to 3sm at BGR after 23z Mon and remain so until 03z Tue, while BHB will be reduced to 2sm during that time. The snow will come to an end by 06z Tue and ceilings will rise to above 3000 ft shortly thereafter. SHORT TERM: Predominately MVFR with intermittent IFR at the northern terminals Tue into Wed in stratus, although some breaks in the clouds and VFR conditions are possible at times. Areas of fog may also produce occasional VLIFR, especially Tue morning and late Wed night. VFR expected at the Down East terminals Tue and Wed. Variable conditons late in the week, but mostly MVFR to VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed today or tonight. High pressure will cross the waters early this morning, followed by a trough of low pressure this afternoon and evening. Winds will increase out of the north once the trough moves east of the region late tonight. Gusts to around 20 are expected. Seas will subside to 1 to 2 feet as the trough crosses this afternoon, but will build back to 2 to 3 feet in response to increasing winds late tonight. SHORT TERM: As cold air pours over the waters late in the week into the first half of the weekend wind gusts to high end small craft advisory or low end gales are possible. && .CLIMATE... Yesterday was the first day without measurable snowfall at Caribou since November 28th. The temperature dropped to -1F at Estcourt Station as of 2 am this morning. This was the first sub-zero temperature of the winter season across northern Maine. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Hastings/CB Marine...Hastings/CB Climate...CB

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