Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 291408 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1008 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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945 AM UPDATE: WE HAD TO INITIALLY BACK OFF OF POPS FOR THIS MORN...WITH LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHWRS ARRIVING FROM ERN QB PROV ATTM. INSTEAD...WE MERGE TO HIGHER LATE DAY POPS ACROSS THE N...WHERE MOST MODELS INDICATE LGT OVRRNG RNFL BREAKING OUT BY EVE. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS HAD TO BE MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND FCST HI TEMPS...WITH MANY 8-9 AM OBS ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA ALREADY ABV FCST HI TEMPS. THE OVR TREND WILL BE FOR TEMPS TO LVL OFF AND EVEN FALL ACROSS EVEN DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTN AS THE LLVL ADVCN AND LOW CLD CVR TAKES OVR. ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH ARE BOTH SIMILAR IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE... THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE SUPER BLEND FOR THE DEW POINTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TRUE AUTUMN-LIKE WX IN STORE FOR THIS TERM W/CLOUDS HANGING ON INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE CONCERN FOR TUESDAY AS THE CWA REMAINS IN AN OVERRUNNING SETUP. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM 950-800MBS W/A DRY WEDGE FROM 825-500MBS. ESE WIND IN BLYR W/SSW ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE. FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LOCATED ACROSS THE AND ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AS WELL. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWERS. DRYING IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ABOVE 850 MBS. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL A DECENT MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 850MBS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING W/A NNE FLOW. SO, CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT W/HIGH PRES WEDGING DOWN FROM CANADA AND NNE FLOW IN PLACE. PLUS, THERE IS A LOW PRES SYSTEM BE PASSING SLOWLY E OVER THE OPEN ATLC. THIS WILL MEAN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL W/READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE DOWNEAST SHOULD SEE MID 50S. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING W/TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT MORE ON WEDNESDAY REACHING NEAR NORMALS READINGS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL NOSE DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE ONLY CAVEAT SEEN ATTM IS ON THURSDAY AS SOME CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS DUE A NNE FLOW IN LLVLS AND LOW PRES PASSING OF CAPE COD. FOR NOW, STAYED W/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON THURSDAY. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER IF NEEDED. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. ATTM, CARRIED 30-40% POPS FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR WILL BE MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY TUESDAY EVENING AND HANG ON INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL TO KBHB WHILE MVFR STILL POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WE BACKED OFF THE ONSET OF THE SCA FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS BY 3 HRS...WITH WINDS AND WVS SLOW TO INCREASE THRU MID MORN COMPARED TO THE PRIOR FCST. WE ALSO USED A BLEND OF THE HIGHER SWAN WV GUIDANCE WITH THE LOWER WW3 WV HTS FOR PEAK WV HTS THIS EVE...RATHER THAN SOLEY RELYING ON THE SWAN MODEL...WITH THE RESULT BEING A MAX OF 7 FT SHORT PD WV HTS OVR OUR OUTER MOST MZS. ORGNL DISC...HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP GENERATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE DURING LAST 24 HOURS IS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM. SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 1-2 FEET/10 SECONDS) ALSO PRESENT BASED ON BUOY DATA AND MODEL FORECAST. EXPECT NORTHEAST WAVE GROUP TO QUICKLY TAKE OVER AS PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 5-8 FEET/6-7 SECONDS) THIS EVENING AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT. WILL INITIALIZE WAVE GRIDS WITH NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON NAM12 SINCE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FAVORS STRONGER NAM WINDS. NWPS HIGHER WAVE MODEL RESOLUTION WILL BETTER HANDLE WAVE/TIDAL CURRENT INTERACTION... ESPECIALLY WITH SHORTER WAVER PERIODS DUE TO SHORTER LENGTH/DURATION FETCH. WILL ISSUE SCA STARTING AT 1800Z. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THIS TERM. NNE WINDS OF 15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY W/SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE ESE BY FRIDAY W/SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT MARINE...VJN/HEWITT

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