Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190412 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1212 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will prevail across the region overnight into Wednesday morning. A weak cold front will cross Maine Wednesday night. A stronger cold front will cross the area Friday and will be followed by Canadian high pressure Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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12:05 AM Update: Have adjusted wind, temperature, and dew points based on latest observations. No other changes. Orgnl Disc: The upper trough will move east of the state this evening, allowing any lingering showers to come to an end. Skies will actually clear out a bit behind the trough, but with plenty of lingering moisture, expect fog will once again develop overnight. Downeast areas will be hit hardest, but patchy fog will be possible even across the north. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. Wednesday looks to be muggy and mainly dry, with just some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. The main driver behind the showers will be a cold front approaching from the northwest, so the North Woods will see the most activity. The higher terrain areas of the Central Highlands up into Aroostook County could see a shower or thunderstorm as well. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s, with the coast a little cooler owing to onshore flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wed night will be another mild and muggy night with patchy fog inland and areas of fog along the coast, with the potential that the fog could be dense in spots. A weak surface trough could provide the focus for an isolated shower. Weak surface ridging builds into the area Thu as the weak surface trough stalls out along the Downeast coast. A warm and humid air mass and strong daytime heating may lead to an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The best chance will likely be near the surface trough Downeast and across the higher terrain, but most areas will have a dry day. The low level air mass will not be quite as warm as Wed, but still it should be warm enough that with some sunshine highs will reach the mid 80s for interior Downeast areas and near 80F in the Saint John Valley. Another mild and muggy night Thu night, and once again fog is likely, especially for areas along the coast. On Fri, a cold front will be organizing across eastern Quebec and will approach northern Maine toward evening. Low clouds will give way to some sunshine, but the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase during the afternoon across northern and western portions of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front will sweep quickly across the CWA Fri evening with showers and thunderstorms. The front will push offshore by around daybreak Sat with a much cooler and drier air mass to follow. Saturday looks real nice with sunshine, low humidity, and highs in the low to mid 70s north and close to 80F for interior Downeast. Dry and comfortable conditons Sat night when some of the northern valleys may dip into the 40s. Forecast confidence decreases Sunday as a system from the Great Lakes begins to advance toward the region. The GFS brings overrunning rain into the area from west to east from mid-late morning and into the afternoon. The ECMWF is slower and would keep Sun dry with rain spreading into the area Sun night. The Canadian actually has the majority of the energy with this next system remaining south of the CWA. The model ensembles show significant spread with Solutions ranging from potential heavier rain to no rain at all. Based on the high levels of uncertainty and that this system likely will be impacted by convection will go with a model blend with high chance PoPs for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. High pressure will likely follow with drier weather and seasonable temps Mon and Tue. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon and early evening, with scattered showers lingering through 00z Wed. Then we expect another night of IFR/LIFR as fog and low ceilings develop, mainly 03z-13z. KBGR and KBHB have the best chances of seeing prolonged LIFR/VLIFR conditions. Conditions will improve to VFR after 13z as the fog dissipates and ceilings lift. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon, which may bring sites to MVFR at times. SHORT TERM: VLIFR to IFR expected at KBHB until a strong cold front crosses the area Fri night. Conditions may briefly improve for a few hours during the afternoon hours. IFR much of the time late night into the morning at KBGR with conditions improving to MVFR or VFR during the afternoon and evening hours. Predominately VFR at the northern terminals during the afternoon and evening hours, but local IFR in low cloud and fog during the late night through mid morning hours through Fri. VFR expected at all terminals Sat and Sat night. Conditions could lower to MVFR in showers or rain Sun, but forecast confidence is low. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed over the waters for the next 24 hours. Dense fog will continue to be the main concern, with visibility reduced below 1SM. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through Sat. Areas of dense fog likely at times until a strong cold front crosses the waters Fri night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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