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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 251603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1103 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...SNOW IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF DOWNEAST. MODERATE
SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF DOWNEAST THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS AND WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

PREVOUS DISCUSSION...A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY`S SNOW
EVENT. AFTER SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW LAST EVENING, WE`RE
STARTING TO SEE SOME HEAVIER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWING THE PATH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND MOVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE,
AND THEREBY WE EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES FOR A
TIME AS IT CROSSES DOWNEAST MAINE AND THEN PIVOTS NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN MAINE TODAY. THIS IS A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM, SO IT`S
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK AND
HOW MUCH SNOW IT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE IN ANY ONE AREA. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE`S ALREADY A SHARP COASTAL FRONT
SETTING UP, WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S AND LOCATIONS JUST INLAND STILL IN THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS. THIS FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING,
BUT IT TOO WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL. HAVE
THEREFORE BUMPED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS JUST A BIT OVER FAR DOWNEAST
MAINE WHILE KEEPING EXPECTED TOTALS ABOUT THE SAME FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN MAINE. SOME AREAS OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES COULD APPROACH WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA (7 INCHES),
BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE LOCALIZED, AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH-
END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THESE LOCATIONS. OVERALL, EXPECT
4-7 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
MARS HILL TO MILLINOCKET TO MILO. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST, WITH FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS ONLY
SEEING AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER, SO THE SNOW
WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE DONE JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE BY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY,
WHERE STREAMERS OFF THE SAINT LAWRENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND WEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. MOST AREAS THOUGH WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 0F TO -10F OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION, TO 0 TO
10 ABOVE FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEB WILL WRAP UP DRY AND COLD AS A MDT TO DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVR THE FA WITH STRONG SFC HI PRES ANCHORED
WELL TO THE WSW OF OUR REGION. HI TEMPS...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL...WILL BE COLDEST THU AND FRI WITH SOME MODERATION TO
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON SAT. FCST LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND
FRI NGT MAY BE HELD UP SOME ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE FA BY CLDNSS
FROM WEAK S/WV ENERGY ALF PASSING WELL S OF THE FA AND BY LGT
BREEZE ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA GIVEN THE PSN OF THE SFC HI SW
OF THE FA. THE BEST BET FOR LOWEST OVRNGT TEMPS WILL BE OVR BROAD
NW VLY LCTNS CAPABLE OF DECOUPLING FROM ABV BL WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT NGT...THE CNTR OF THE LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HI WILL BE APCHG THE
MID ATLC STATES COASTLINE. SKIES WILL BE CLR ACROSS THE FA...BUT
A WEAK WSW WRLY BREEZE ALG WITH RECOVERING LATE NGT 925 MB TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER TRICKY FCST OF OVRNGT LOWS...WITH AGAIN...
BROAD VLY LCTNS EXPERIENCING THE LOWEST TEMPS. SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY
SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLDNSS LATE IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVCN AND
MOISTURE OVRRNG FROM THE SW BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION FROM THE W.
MODELS VARY ON THE IMPACT OF LGT OVRRNG SNFL THAT COULD IMPACT THE
FA FROM LATE SUN EVE INTO ERLY MON MORN WITH A FAST MOVG S/WV ALF
FROM THE GREAT LKS...WITH THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH ITS EVENT QPF OF 0.10 N TO 0.25 INCHES DOWNEAST AND THE
CANGEM THE LEAST SHOWING NO QPF. THE TREND OF THE 00Z GFS TNGT IS
LESS THAN LAST NGT...SHOWING LITTLE OR NO QPF N AND LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH S. THEREFORE...WE LOWERED MAX POPS TO 30 PERCENT
N AND 40 PERCENT S OVR OUR FA...AND FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ONLY
A MENTION A CHC OF LGT SN...RATHER THEN SN.

FOLLOWING THE S/WV ANY LGT SNFL TO THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON
MORN...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON DRY CONDITIONS LATER MON
THRU TUE...BUT DISAGREE ON HOW COLD THE CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BE
BEHIND THE S/WV. FOR NOW WE RELIED ON THE SUPERBLEND TO BRIDGE THE
TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BY 10Z AS SNOW SPREADS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND THEN IFR WILL BE
LIKELY IN SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR 21Z-00Z AND REMAIN
SO OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AS SNOW STREAMERS OFF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THU THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEY WILL REMAIN 15 TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PD OF MDT FZGSPY OVR MOST
OF OUR WATERS THU MORN AND THU NGT AND NEAR SCA WV HTS ACROSS THE
OUTER MZS THU MORN...NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD. KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ002-005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN