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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 160451
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1251 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in overnight. A cold front will approach
from the north on Saturday and stall over the area by Saturday
evening. This front will lift back north as a warm front across
northern Maine on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1240 AM Update: We optd to increase fog cvrg further N into our
Rgn based on obs trends at KBGR which showed fog moving in.
Brought areas of fog up thru Nrn Penobscot and SE Aroostook
county very late tngt given little current temp/dwpt spread.

Otherwise, we made the typical updates in fcst hrly temps/dwpts
thru the erly morn hrs based on trends seen in latest sfc obs.
This resulted in lowering fcst lows in the typical low lying
areas of the N to keep up with obs. Of course, temps will become
steady or even rise a little prior to sunrise if fog forms rvr
these areas.

Orgnl Disc: There is a large area of fog and low clouds just
off the coast on the south side of the boundary. The fog and low
clouds will advect northward in a southerly flow tonight. Have
specified areas of fog and drizzle towards the coast tonight
into the morning. Patchy fog and low clouds will likely be
pulled northward towards the Moosehead Lake and Katahdin regions
by late tonight...and potentially towards Presque Isle. These
thin clouds will burn off and retreat back towards the coast in
the morning. Meanwhile, another dry cold front will enter
northern Aroostook County in the morning and slowly sweep
southward towards a line from southern Piscataquis County
towards northern Washington County. However, the more humid air
that was drawn northward overnight will tend to linger during
Saturday with dew point at or above 60F for most of the area.
The drier air behind the cold front won`t arrive until Saturday
evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stalled frontal bndry wl begin lifting back to the north as a wmfnt
Sat night with isold showers expected acrs the north. Expect areas
of fog and patchy drizzle along the immediate coast late Sat night
in humid airmass. Muggy day expected on Sunday with area in the warm
sector. May see an isold shower for the north drg the day as bndry
lurks nearby. Temps wl be slightly abv normal for maxes on Sun with
u60s in the north to l/m 70s in the south, cooler closer to the
coast.

Areas of fog are expected Sun night thru the entire area as airmass
rmns humid. Mins wl be well abv normal Sun night, rmng in the m/u
50s. Wx wl be similar to Sun with isold showers ovr the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
All eyes will be focused on Jose for the long term portion of
the forecast. Models continue to differ significantly on his
track after Sunday. Latest GFS brushes Cape Cod Wed mrng bfr
steering it right and south of Nova Scotia. CMC does the same
thing albeit it about 12-18 hrs sooner. Latest EC is much slower
and essentially hits a brick wall Wed night, thus Jose spins
aimlessly (once again). Any potential impacts wl likely not be
clear with Jose until later this weekend (at the earliest). Hwvr
after Jose decides to go wherever he ends up high pressure wl
lkly control our wx thru the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR will likely affect BHB and coastal terminals
tonight. The fog and low clouds will likely spread towards BGR
and HUL as the night progresses. There is a slight chance a
brief period of low clouds could hit around CAR and PQI towards
sunrise, but confidence too low to include in TAFs based on
stronger/dry SW winds in that region.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR expected at southern terminals Sat night,
possibly improving to MVFR Sun afternoon. IFR at northern
terminals Sun morning improving to VFR. LIFR/IFR quickly sets
in again Sun night in areas of low clouds and fog before
improving during the day. Conditions will be variable by mid-
week depending on the track of Jose.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog will be the main feature this evening into
Saturday morning. Drizzle is also possible. The fog will likely
thin out by Saturday afternoon. Long period south swell near 3
feet continues during the period.

SHORT TERM: Areas of fog along with patchy drizzle can be
expected over the waters this weekend. Srly swell ahead of Jose
will begin to move in this weekend with seas increasing above 8
feet Tue morning with 10-14 second periods. Surf will likely be
high along with an increased risk for rip currents through the
middle of the week depending on the track of Jose.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...VJN/Farrar
Marine...VJN/Farrar