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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 151701
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1230 PM UPDATE: UPDATED TO GO A LITTLE FURTHER S WITH CLD CVR AND
SHWRS THAN PREV FCST BASED ON LATEST VIS SAT AND RADAR REF IMAGERY.
SHWR POPS AND QPF THIS UPDATE IS A LITTLE MORE TRRN BASED WITH HIER
TRRN WRN AREAS SHOWN TO GET A 0.02 TO 0.04 INCH POTENTIAL
PROPORTIONAL TO ELEVATION ABV MSL WHERE THE REST OF THE CNTRL AND
NE PTNS OF THE FA IS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE A 0.01 INCH POTENTIAL.
WITH ONLY A 100 TO 150 J/KG SBCAPE POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO MUCH
LESS QPF THAN YSTDY AFTN...WE DID NOT MENTION ANT THUNDER WITH
SHWRS THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...LOADED LATEST NOON OBSVD TEMPS AND
MERGED FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU HI TEMPS POSTED AT 4 PM.

1000 AM UPDATE: JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD CVR AND HRLY TEMPS
LEADING TO AFTN HI TEMPS BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
THIS UPDATE...OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST ON TRACK.

600 AM UPDATE: HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

ORGNL DISC: A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTHERN
MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
DOWNEAST TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TROF WILL CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST LATE. CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH...TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR WIND
HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GMOS USING 150 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED FOR WIND GUSTS. FOR TEMPERATURE WILL INITIALIZE THE
GRIDS WITH GMOS. WILL ADJUST TWO DEGREES FOR HIGH BIAS ON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND THREE DEGREES FOR LOW BIAS ON MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THEN MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS
WITH GMOS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND SKY COVER. WILL ALSO ADJUST
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WIND WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND
GFS40 THEN TRANSITION TO THE GMOS WINDS LATE MONDAY. WILL USE 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WIND FOR GUST SPEED. FOR WAVES: SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW
WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS LOW ALSO LOOKS TOO INTENSE SO WILL LOWER WAVE
HEIGHTS 2 TO 3 FEET BELOW GUIDANCE. WILL USE SWAN/NAM OUT TO 1200Z
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WNA/4.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/MIGNONE
MARINE...VJN/MIGNONE