Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 111359 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 859 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain to our east through Friday as a series of low pressure systems tracks northwest of the area. An Arctic front will press into the region late Friday night into Saturday as a new low tracks into the Gulf of Maine from the Ohio valley. Canadian high pressure then builds toward the region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9am update...Cancelled the winter weather advisory. There is a band of precip moving out of Quebec that could provide a quick hit of light freezing rain north of a line from Greenville to Houlton late this morning, but no significant impacts are expected. Otherwise, have raised temps and dewpoints slightly for tonight into tomorrow...resulting in a forecast for widespread fog tonight into Friday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed tonight. With dewpoints rising towards 50F for Bangor and the Down East region and Friday`s rain, snow melt will be substantial and could cause some urban ponding/flooding where culverts and drains become clogged. Previous discussion... An initial area of lgt mixed precip has moved across the Rgn ovr the last couple of hrs. Behind this is spotty lgt fzra which will last intermittently until later this morn, so for now we cont with the wntr wx adv for our area N of the immediate Downeast coast. Temps have already risen abv fzg as far N as KBGR, but will hold on to the mention of lgt fzra in this area due to very cold ground sfcs from the prev long lasting cold spell, although we may canx the srn ptn of the wntr wx adv on the next fcst update if there is no precip and temps rise to aoa 40 deg F. Otherwise, ST clds will lower and patchy fog will develop later tdy as sfc dwpts rise abv fzg. Any Fzg rn will end even across Nrn ptns of the FA by this aftn as sfc temps cont to rise across the entire area in response to a warm front crossing the area. Fog will thicken ovrngt as both sfc temps and dwpts rise into the 40s with a steady S wind. Rain ahead of an arctic front will enter the Rgn from the SW very late tngt and cont across the area thru Fri as s/wv energy tops the ridge thru Ern QB prov with fog contg. Total prefrontal rnfl up to Fri eve will range from arnd a half inch N to arnd a full inch ovr Downeast areas By late Fri aftn, the arctic front will just be crossing into xtrm NW ptns of the Rgn bringing the ern edge of fzg precip to near Escourt Stn by erly Fri eve.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A large area of high pressure will remain well east of our area Friday evening as a new high approaching from the Great Lakes pushes an Arctic front in from the northwest. This will produce a complex series of precipitation changes Friday night into Saturday as a new area of low pressure lifts north from the southeastern states. The convergence between the two highs coupled with moisture being channeled north by the Atlantic high will produce rain throughout the area Friday evening. The rain will change over to freezing rain then sleet and snow over the north as the Arctic front presses much colder air into the low levels. A new low will be approaching from the south Saturday morning as the Arctic air continues to press into our area. By sunrise Saturday morning precipitation will be over to sleet and snow over the north and freezing rain across central areas. Plain rain will be continuing Downeast. The new low will quickly track northeast across the Gulf of Maine during the midday Saturday. Precipitation will change over to all snow north, sleet and freezing rain over interior Downeast locations and be rain Downeast by midday as the storm winds down. A dry slot quickly lifting north into our area should end precipitation, or taper it down to some light snow and patchy freezing drizzle by early afternoon Saturday. Snow and sleet amounts up to 6 to 8 inches over the north and ice amounts up to a third of an inch in central areas seems mostly likely at this time. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold high pressure will continue to build in from the west Saturday night into Sunday as one final very weak shortwave lifts across the north bringing a chance for some snow showers. High pressure will bring partly sunny, cold and dry weather on Monday. Our focus Tuesday into Tuesday night will be on a new area of low pressure approaching from the southwest. This may bring snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, only some of the guidance like the GFS brings the storm in while other models like the ECMWF are carrying the low south of the area. Temperatures next week are expected to be around 5 degrees below normal. However, there are signs of a turn toward a milder pattern going into the fourth week in January. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Low VFR or MVFR clgs and ocnl MVFR clgs in lgt intermittent precip will lower to IFR at all of our TAF sites by late in the day in ST cldnss and then to LIFR tngt with areas of fog and late ngt rain contg into Fri. SHORT TERM: Expect LIFR conditions in low clouds and precipitation Friday night through Saturday. IFR conditions are likely Saturday night, possibly improving to MVFR late. MVFR conditions should improve to VFR on Sunday. VFR conditions are likely Sunday night into Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will cont with the current SCA thru Fri morn, after which, a gale watch has been added for Wed aftn as wind gust potential increases from 30 kt to 35 kt. Kept close to a WW3/NWPS wv guidance blend for fcst wv hts. SHORT TERM: A strong SCA or gale may be needed Friday evening for southerly winds. A SCA may then be needed later Friday night through Saturday. A SCA may be needed Saturday night through Sunday for much colder north winds pushing across the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for ANZ050>052. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for ANZ050>052.
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