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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 190412
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1212 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will prevail across the region overnight into
Wednesday morning. A weak cold front will cross Maine Wednesday
night. A stronger cold front will cross the area Friday and
will be followed by Canadian high pressure Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12:05 AM Update: Have adjusted wind, temperature, and dew points
based on latest observations. No other changes.

Orgnl Disc: The upper trough will move east of the state this
evening, allowing any lingering showers to come to an end. Skies
will actually clear out a bit behind the trough, but with
plenty of lingering moisture, expect fog will once again develop
overnight. Downeast areas will be hit hardest, but patchy fog
will be possible even across the north. Lows will be in the
lower to mid 60s.

Wednesday looks to be muggy and mainly dry, with just some isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. The main driver
behind the showers will be a cold front approaching from the
northwest, so the North Woods will see the most activity. The higher
terrain areas of the Central Highlands up into Aroostook County
could see a shower or thunderstorm as well. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 80s, with the coast a little cooler owing to onshore
flow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wed night will be another mild and muggy night with patchy fog
inland and areas of fog along the coast, with the potential that the
fog could be dense in spots.  A weak surface trough could provide
the focus for an isolated shower.  Weak surface ridging builds into
the area Thu as the weak surface trough stalls out along the
Downeast coast.  A warm and humid air mass and strong daytime
heating may lead to an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  The best
chance will likely be near the surface trough Downeast and across
the higher terrain, but most areas will have a dry day.  The low
level air mass will not be quite as warm as Wed, but still it should
be warm enough that with some sunshine highs will reach the mid 80s
for interior Downeast areas and near 80F in the Saint John Valley.
Another mild and muggy night Thu night, and once again fog is
likely, especially for areas along the coast.  On Fri, a cold front
will be organizing across eastern Quebec and will approach northern
Maine toward evening.  Low clouds will give way to some sunshine,
but the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase during the
afternoon across northern and western portions of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will sweep quickly across the CWA Fri evening with
showers and thunderstorms.  The front will push offshore by around
daybreak Sat with a much cooler and drier air mass to follow.
Saturday looks real nice with sunshine, low humidity, and highs in
the low to mid 70s north and close to 80F for interior Downeast. Dry
and comfortable conditons Sat night when some of the northern
valleys may dip into the 40s.  Forecast confidence decreases Sunday
as a system from the Great Lakes begins to advance toward the
region. The GFS brings overrunning rain into the area from west
to east from mid-late morning and into the afternoon. The ECMWF
is slower and would keep Sun dry with rain spreading into the
area Sun night. The Canadian actually has the majority of the
energy with this next system remaining south of the CWA. The
model ensembles show significant spread with Solutions ranging
from potential heavier rain to no rain at all. Based on the high
levels of uncertainty and that this system likely will be
impacted by convection will go with a model blend with high
chance PoPs for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. High
pressure will likely follow with drier weather and seasonable
temps Mon and Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR conditions will persist through the
afternoon and early evening, with scattered showers lingering
through 00z Wed. Then we expect another night of IFR/LIFR as fog
and low ceilings develop, mainly 03z-13z. KBGR and KBHB have
the best chances of seeing prolonged LIFR/VLIFR conditions.
Conditions will improve to VFR after 13z as the fog dissipates
and ceilings lift. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible again in the afternoon, which may bring sites to MVFR
at times.

SHORT TERM: VLIFR to IFR expected at KBHB until a strong
cold front crosses the area Fri night.  Conditions may briefly
improve for a few hours during the afternoon hours. IFR much of the
time late night into the morning at KBGR with conditions improving
to MVFR or VFR during the afternoon and evening hours. Predominately
VFR at the northern terminals during the afternoon and evening
hours, but local IFR in low cloud and fog during the late night
through mid morning hours through Fri.  VFR expected at all
terminals Sat and Sat night. Conditions could lower to MVFR in
showers or rain Sun, but forecast confidence is low.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed over the waters for the
next 24 hours. Dense fog will continue to be the main concern,
with visibility reduced below 1SM.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Sat.  Areas of dense fog likely at times until a
strong cold front crosses the waters Fri night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone