Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160451 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1251 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in overnight. A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday and stall over the area by Saturday evening. This front will lift back north as a warm front across northern Maine on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1240 AM Update: We optd to increase fog cvrg further N into our Rgn based on obs trends at KBGR which showed fog moving in. Brought areas of fog up thru Nrn Penobscot and SE Aroostook county very late tngt given little current temp/dwpt spread. Otherwise, we made the typical updates in fcst hrly temps/dwpts thru the erly morn hrs based on trends seen in latest sfc obs. This resulted in lowering fcst lows in the typical low lying areas of the N to keep up with obs. Of course, temps will become steady or even rise a little prior to sunrise if fog forms rvr these areas. Orgnl Disc: There is a large area of fog and low clouds just off the coast on the south side of the boundary. The fog and low clouds will advect northward in a southerly flow tonight. Have specified areas of fog and drizzle towards the coast tonight into the morning. Patchy fog and low clouds will likely be pulled northward towards the Moosehead Lake and Katahdin regions by late tonight...and potentially towards Presque Isle. These thin clouds will burn off and retreat back towards the coast in the morning. Meanwhile, another dry cold front will enter northern Aroostook County in the morning and slowly sweep southward towards a line from southern Piscataquis County towards northern Washington County. However, the more humid air that was drawn northward overnight will tend to linger during Saturday with dew point at or above 60F for most of the area. The drier air behind the cold front won`t arrive until Saturday evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Stalled frontal bndry wl begin lifting back to the north as a wmfnt Sat night with isold showers expected acrs the north. Expect areas of fog and patchy drizzle along the immediate coast late Sat night in humid airmass. Muggy day expected on Sunday with area in the warm sector. May see an isold shower for the north drg the day as bndry lurks nearby. Temps wl be slightly abv normal for maxes on Sun with u60s in the north to l/m 70s in the south, cooler closer to the coast. Areas of fog are expected Sun night thru the entire area as airmass rmns humid. Mins wl be well abv normal Sun night, rmng in the m/u 50s. Wx wl be similar to Sun with isold showers ovr the north. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... All eyes will be focused on Jose for the long term portion of the forecast. Models continue to differ significantly on his track after Sunday. Latest GFS brushes Cape Cod Wed mrng bfr steering it right and south of Nova Scotia. CMC does the same thing albeit it about 12-18 hrs sooner. Latest EC is much slower and essentially hits a brick wall Wed night, thus Jose spins aimlessly (once again). Any potential impacts wl likely not be clear with Jose until later this weekend (at the earliest). Hwvr after Jose decides to go wherever he ends up high pressure wl lkly control our wx thru the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR will likely affect BHB and coastal terminals tonight. The fog and low clouds will likely spread towards BGR and HUL as the night progresses. There is a slight chance a brief period of low clouds could hit around CAR and PQI towards sunrise, but confidence too low to include in TAFs based on stronger/dry SW winds in that region. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR expected at southern terminals Sat night, possibly improving to MVFR Sun afternoon. IFR at northern terminals Sun morning improving to VFR. LIFR/IFR quickly sets in again Sun night in areas of low clouds and fog before improving during the day. Conditions will be variable by mid- week depending on the track of Jose. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Fog will be the main feature this evening into Saturday morning. Drizzle is also possible. The fog will likely thin out by Saturday afternoon. Long period south swell near 3 feet continues during the period. SHORT TERM: Areas of fog along with patchy drizzle can be expected over the waters this weekend. Srly swell ahead of Jose will begin to move in this weekend with seas increasing above 8 feet Tue morning with 10-14 second periods. Surf will likely be high along with an increased risk for rip currents through the middle of the week depending on the track of Jose. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MEZ029-030. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...VJN/Farrar Marine...VJN/Farrar

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