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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 071101
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
601 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
600 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
OCCURRING IN DOWNEAST MAINE TO COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK OR SO.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES, SO EXPECT BREEZY WEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE
WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. IN TURN,
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. FURTHER NORTH,
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO. HIGHS HERE WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF
A GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF COMPLETELY, WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE EXTENT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE CHILLY, RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS THRU THE
SHORT TERM. SUN WILL BEGIN DRY AND COLD...WITH PERHAPS A THIN
BKN LAYER OF SC FROM THE ST LAWRENCE IN NW LLVL WINDS ACROSS THE
N HLF OF THE FA SUN MORN INTO THE AFTN. ALL AREAS WILL BEGIN MSLY
CLR SUN EVE AS SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO CREST THE REGION...THEN HI/MID
CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EWRD FROM APCHG SFC LOW PRES FROM THE
MIDWEST LATE SUN NGT AS THE HI MOVES E OF THE REGION. CLDS WILL
THICKEN MON MORN...WITH SN BREAKING OUT FROM SW TO NE FROM THE
LATE MORNING THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...WITH THIS TMG A BLEND OF
SLIGHTLY FASTER 00Z GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
ENOUGH LLVL WARM ADVCN AHEAD OF AN OCCLUSION SPOT LOW THAT CROSSES
THE GULF OF MAINE MON EVE FOR SN TO MIX WITH RN OVR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND MIX WITH AND CHG TO RN ALG COASTAL AREAS
DURING THE EVENING HRS...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LOWER THE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA. FROM E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA NWRD...
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SN...BUT EVEN HERE GIVEN THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE SFC LOW AND SUPPORTING S/WV ALF...SNFL
TOTALS MAY BE LMTD TO 3 TO 4 INCHES AT MOST LCTNS...AS SUGGESTED
BY THE MAJORITY OF 00Z OPNL AND 21Z SREF MODELS. STEADY SNOW N AND
CNTRL AND MIXED PRECIP DOWNEAST SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SHWRS LATE MON
NGT AND MSLY END BY TUE MORN.

AFT CHILL ERLY LOWS ARND OR JUST AFT MDNGT SUN...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATE SUN NGT THEN STEADILY RISE MON REACHING
HI TEMPS MON EVE BEFORE FALLING LATE MON NGT BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THRU WED MORN WILL BE COLDER THAN MON AND MON NGT WITH
TYPICAL COLD ADVCN SC/SCT FLURRIES AND SN SHWRS ACROSS THE NW HLF
OF THE FA. BUT THE REAL COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATER WED TO THE
FA...BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVR THE REGION BY THU MORN. WITH
SUB ZERO LOWS THU MORN ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK BREEZE...WE CANNOT
RULE OUT THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADV FOR NRN AND EVEN PERHAPS CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA LATE WED NGT INTO THU MORN. BASED ON PROJECTED AFTN
925MB TEMPS OF -19 DEG C DOWNEAST TO -23 DEG C NW...HI TEMPS
THU WITH STRUGGLE TO REACH 5 TO 10 ABV N AND LOWER TO MID TEENS
DOWNEAST...AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC. AFTWRDS...TMG DIFFERENCES
EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARD TO A CLIPPER S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WHICH COULD BRING A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF HIGH RESIDENCE
ARCTIC AIR FOR FRI AND SAT. GIVEN HOW COLD AND DRY THE AIR WILL
BE AHEAD OF THIS S/WV...WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY FOR
NOW. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR IS AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THIS
AIRMASS INTO THE FA BEHIND THIS S/WV...BUT FOR NOW ITS TO ERLY TO
SAY WHAT MAGNITUDE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN RESPONSE TO
LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A 3000-4000 FT CLOUD
DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY 16Z
TODAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS,
ESPECIALLY AT KFVE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD THRU SUN NGT...WITH BRIEF PDS OF
MVFR CLGS IN THIN BKN SC POSSIBLE OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN MORN THRU
AFTN. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND IFR CLGS/VSBYS WILL BE WITH SNFL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES COMPLEX APCHG FROM THE MIDWEST ON
MON. WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORN
THROUGH MID AFTN HRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN REMAIN IFR WITH
SN NRN TAF SITES AND MIXED RN/SN DOWNEAST SITES MON EVE BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES BY TUE...
WHICH THEN CONTS THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE WATERS LATER TODAY, ALLOWING FOR
DECENT MIXING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF OF MAINE. GUSTS TO 30
KT AND WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FT ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE INNER WATERS...A
FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT, BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE NORM. HAVE THEREFORE NOT INCLUDED THE INNER WATERS
IN THE SCA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IT APPEARS THAT AN SCA FROM THE NEAR TERM WILL
LAST A FEW HRS THROUGH MID SUN MORN ACROSS THE OUTER MZS...THEN
NW WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUN AFTN. ANOTHER BRIEF PD OF MARGINAL
SCA WINDS AND SEAS IS POSSIBLE MON AFTN INTO MON EVE WITH SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY OCCLUSION LOW APCHG THE WATERS FROM THE SW
AND AGAIN ON TUE WITH WNW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN