Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160409 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1209 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1145 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS...CLD CVR AND TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT INTO TUE. THE GIST OF THESE ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO MAKE THE SHWR EVENT A LITTLE MORE COMPACT BASED ON LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE AND HRLY MESO MODEL GUIDANCE. LASTLY...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVRNGT LOWS TO LOWER THEM ACROSS THE XTRM NW BASED ON 11 PM OBS SHOWING 36 DEG AT ESCOURT STN. TEMPS FOR THE REST OF TNGT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AND EVEN RISE A FEW DEG AT SOME LCTNS AS CLD CVR AND SHWRS MOVE INTO THE REGION. ORGNL DISC: CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SMALL AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION TOWARD MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. ELSEWHERE, RAINFALL SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY ALLOWING PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. SHOWERS WILL END WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UNSEASONABLY COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS DESCENDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER. A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD WELL END THE GROWING SEASON AS FAR SOUTH AS PERHAPS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST ZONES. THE AIRMASS MODIFIES BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SOLUTION DUE TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS

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