Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271704 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 104 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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1250 PM: FCST HRLY TEMPS WHERE MODIFIED TO FCST HI TEMPS...WHICH WERE RAISED ACROSS THE NW BASED ON LATEST TRENDS NOTED FROM NOON OBS FROM THE PRIOR TEMPS FCST AT THIS TM. ORGNL DISC: HIPRES WL PARK ITSELF OVR REGION TDA THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVNG. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN ACRS MOST OF CWA WITH MID-LVL MOISTURE HANGING ARND DOWNEAST ZONES THIS AFTN FOR DIURNAL CU TO DVLP. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD L70S FOR MAXES TDA WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL ZONES, WHERE TEMPS WL CAP IN THE U60S AS ONSHORE FLOW DVLPS AFT 16Z. H5 LOW WL MEANDER ACRS THE GREAT LKS THRU END OF NEAR TERM. STEADY RAIN WL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TWD CWA BY 06Z SUN BUT GIVEN THE SLOW MVMNT TO UPR SUPPORT WL LKLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH RAIN IN AREA UNTIL AFT 12Z SUN. H5 RIDGE WL BE HOLDING TIGHT SAT EVNG AND FLATTENING AS LEAD S/WV HEADS NORTH INTO MAINE BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A GNRL AGREEMENT THAT A SECONDARY LOW WL DVLP OFF THE COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS INCREASE FM THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOPRES BEGINS TO DVLP OVR THE NY BIGHT. THIS WL BEGIN TO THROW MOISTURE UP INTO SWRN ZONES BY SUN MRNG WITH LKLY RAIN EXPECTED BY 12Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A RATHER STRONG NOR-EASTER FOR EARLY SUMMER WILL BE APPROACHING ON SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN AND WIND ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD REACH NORTHERN MAINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AS A SECONDARY LOW ON SUNDAY FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION WHERE WELL OVER AN INCH IS LIKELY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A RESULT, NORTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE LESS RAIN WITH AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH LIKELY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE LINGER BEHIND. SKIES MAY BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK IS FOR A CONTINUED LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL FAVOR WEATHER SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH EVERY FEW DAYS. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH PULLING AN OCCLUSION THROUGH WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS IN FG THROUGH DAYBREAK. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR DOWNEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR LATER MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS UP FOR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF WASHINGTON COUNTY AND A GALE WARNING IS UP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF HANCOCK COUNTY FOR SUNDAY AS A NOR-EASTER APPROACHES. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 10 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050- 052. GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER

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