Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160239 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1039 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure and drier air will follow for Wednesday. The dry weather will continue into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1015 PM Update... Added the mention of heavy rainfall as the latest RAP soundings showed potential for heavy rain as storms will align w/the steering flow from the sw. Added enhanced wording into the Bangor region as well for winds and heavy rainfall as ML CAPE of 500 joules nosing into the region w/PWATS 1.25 to 1.3 inches. Radar estimated some areas on north-central Aroostook County receiving up to 2 inches per hour Radar showed area of showers and tstms pushing e extending Van Buren down into Bangor. Some storms across north-central Aroostook County showed signs of rotation as initial line had signs of a QLCS look to it. Activity will be ending by midnight as the cold front pushes e. Cooler air will arrive behind the front by early Wednesday morning. Hrly temps/dewpoints needed adjustments as rain has cooled airmass down. Also added patchy fog through early Wednesday morning. Previous Discussion... Cold front currently to our northwest across Quebec province. The front will continue to move toward the region this evening with showers and scattered thunderstorms expected in advance of the front. The best chances for storms remain across northern and western sections of the forecast area. Still couldn`t rule out the potential for a gusty storm through late afternoon. Will continue to reference enhanced wording for small hail and gusty winds through sunset. Latest SPC meso analysis showing decent shear in the 0-6 km layer, however, very little in the way of surface based CAPE as of late this afternoon. Any lingering showers and thunderstorms will wind down quickly this evening with the passage of the front. Patchy fog will once again be possible until the passage of the front with areas of fog along the coast. Lows tonight wil range from the low 50s across the north and upper 50s to near 60s downeast. Much drier air will follow the passage of the cold front Wednesday with gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Dew point temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 40s across the north and low to mid 50s downeast. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies north and mostly sunny skies downeast. Highs will range from the upper 60s to near 70 degrees north and mid 70s to near 80 downeast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong, cold upper level low pressure will pass to our north/northeast Wednesday night and Thursday. This will lead to breezy conditions with the breeze out of the west/northwest, and a dry crisp airmass. Skies will be mostly clear Wednesday night and Thursday, except partly cloudy at times over the north closer to the upper low. High pressure moves overhead Thursday night with cool temperatures. The high moves east Friday and clouds begin to increase ahead of the next system. Chance of rain Bar Harbor, Bangor, Moosehead regions late Friday, but most of the rain should hold off until Friday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain event Friday night perhaps into early Saturday with a warm front moving through. Looks like more of a regular steady rain than a showery or stormy situation. Best shot at rain appears to be over Downeast at this time. Models coming into better agreement on the system, though model agreement still isn`t great. Tough call on Saturday daytime as to whether the system will have pushed off to the east or if it will be lingering. Some showers or possibly storms Sunday afternoon, then dry and warm Monday through Tuesday. Next potential system around Wednesday. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this evening will give way to MVFR at times in showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly northern terminals. Expect VFR early to give way to IFR/LIFR in low clouds and areas of fog, especially KBHB. Conditions improving conditions on Wednesday with VFR expected along with Northwest winds gusting to 25 kt at times. SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR Wednesday night through Friday. Can`t rule out occasional MVFR ceilings far Northern Maine Wednesday night and Thursday. Widespread IFR likely Friday night into early Saturday with a warm front. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through Wednesday. Areas of fog will once again lower visibility to 1 nm or less at times tonight, then improve with the passage of the front early Wednesday. SHORT TERM: Wednesday night, long period swell arrives from Hurricane Gert. Doesn`t appear to be too significant and shouldn`t be enough to need any high surf advisory. It does appear to lead to small craft level wave heights a bit above five feet Wednesday night into Thursday. Wind gusts to 25 kt are also possible on Thursday (not associated with Gert). Conditions improving Thursday night into Friday, then conditions close to small craft possible Saturday with the next weather system. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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