Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 131753 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1253 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A upper disturbance will move across the region this afternoon with gusty west to northwest winds. High pressure will then build across the region through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1250 PM Update...Adjusted the pops to carry 40% across the crown of Aroostook County into mid afternoon as upper trof is moving across the region. Radar showed an area of snow moving across the crown w/obs and reports showing a band of heavy snow w/gust winds to 40+ mph. RAP soundings showed some CAPE of 35 joules w/0-3km shear of 35 kts. Definitely some convective potential w/this band. Issued a Special Weather Statement to cover this band of snow. Some areas could see a quick 1/2 to 1 inch of snow. Winds were causing some issues around the region w/reports of power outages due to tree limbs on power lines. Increased winds a bit for the afternoon w/gust potential to 45 mph. Temps are steadily falling back attm w/upper teens to lower 20s across the northern 1/2 of the CWA. Previous Discussion... High pressure will build east toward the region later tonight. Gusty winds will persist into the evening then begin to diminish overnight. However, the winds will remain strong enough to produce dangerous wind chills of 20 below zero to 30 below zero later tonight across northern portions of the forecast area. Have issued a Wind Chill Advisory for northern portions of the forecast area tonight into Saturday morning. High temperatures will occur early today ranging through the 20s to lower 30s north, with upper 30s Bangor and interior Downeast with around 40 to the lower 40s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 5 below zero to around 10 below zero north, to around zero to 5 above zero Bangor and Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will crest over the area Saturday then move to the east. This system will bring partly to mostly sunny conditions Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will approach from the west and move to the north of the state Saturday night and bring some snow showers. Strong high pressure will then build in from the west Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Strong high pressure will crest over the region Sunday night then move to the east Monday. Low pressure is then expected to pass to approach from the southwest Tuesday and then pass to the west of the region Wednesday. A secondary low is then expected to develop on the Maine coast late Wednesday as the primary low passes to the west. High pressure will then build in from the west Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains today, with locally lower conditions with any snow bands. VFR conditions are expected across the north and mountains tonight. VFR conditions are expected across the remainder of the forecast area Today through tonight. Gusty west to northwest winds up to around 40 mph will occur across the entire region today, with locally stronger gusts possible across higher terrain areas. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Saturday through Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gale conditions will develop on the waters today. A Gale Warning remains in effect across the waters Today into this evening. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected later tonight. Light freezing spray will begin to develop tonight. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS20 for sustained wind grids then transition to Super Blend winds late Sunday. For waves: Off-shore wind wave is expected to dominate Saturday into next week with a secondary southerly long period swell group (1 foot/8-9 seconds). Used Near Shore Wave Model through Sunday then transition to Wave Watch III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for MEZ001>006-010. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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