Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211702 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 102 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure in Pennsylvania this morning will move to the Gulf of Maine tonight. The low will lift to the north of the region Saturday night and usher and much cooler air mass into the area Sunday through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update...Maintaining relatively high pops through the afternoon with widespread areas of light rain and drizzle...especially in upslope terrain as the warm/moist marine air continues to stream northward. Will continue to go with heavier rain towards the coast late this evening and move it inland after midnight. Thunder still does not seem particularly likely for the heavier rain band tonight. Previous discussion... A complex weather pattern. Low pressure in PA early this morning with an inverted trough that stretches northeast to near Quebec City. Another low east of the Bahamas is moving slowly northward. The low in PA moves east today with the energy to get transfered to the coast with a deeper low to develop in the Gulf of Maine tonight. Moisture associated with the low north of the Bahamas will likely get entrained into the area later tonight. Today will be cloudy with areas of fog and a few showers along with areas of drizzle. The best chance of steadier rain will be across far northern and especially northwest Maine in association with the inverted surface trough this morning. Periods of rain are expected tonight, with the potential for heavier periods of rain as the precipitable water increases to 1.5-1.75", which is nearly 4 std deviations above normal for this time of year. The best chance of heavier rain will be across the Down East Region and eastern Maine as well as the upslope areas of the Central highlands. There will continue to be areas of fog. There is a bit of instability aloft tonight across the Down East Region, but confidence on any thunder remains low. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A digging upper trough will become negatively tilted through the day Saturday, forming a deepening closed low by Saturday night. Surface low pressure will develop in response and will lift northward across eastern New England on Saturday. This low will then spin over central Quebec through Sunday. These two features will result in strong southerly flow over our area which will pull deep moisture from a tropical wave off the southeast coast. The result will be widespread rain on Saturday with additional rainfall amounts of up to a half inch or so. The south flow will also usher in relatively mild air; most locations will rise into the lower 60s Saturday afternoon, with just the far north and west remaining in the mid to upper 50s. The rain will taper off a bit and become more showery Saturday night as the low lifts to our north. Temperatures will dip into the mid 30s across the northwest, so snow showers may mix in from time to time over the higher terrain. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Elsewhere, scattered rain showers and lows in the 40s should be the norm. The showers will gradually become more focused across the higher terrain of the North Woods through the day on Sunday as winds turn west. It`ll be a brisk day as these winds will pick up with gusts of 20-30 mph. Higher gusts will be possible along immediate coast. Highs will only be in the mid 40s to around 50 under widespread cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold, showery, and blustery weather will be the rule for much of next week. A persistent upper trough will slowly trek eastward across eastern Canada and eventually over the Maritimes. This will place Maine in broad cyclonic flow until at least Wednesday, resulting in a threat of showers each day, mainly over the north and west. High pressure will attempt to build into the region Wednesday night and Thursday, though the ECMWF brings another low pressure system up through the Great Lakes by late in the day Thursday. Temperatures will average several degrees below normal with highs only in the 40s to around 50. Nighttime temperatures will be cold enough for some snow to mix in with any rain showers, particularly over the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Predominately IFR/LIFR through tonight with low stratus, rain, drizzle, and fog. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions will prevail through much of Saturday due to low ceilings and periods of rain. The southern terminals will likely improve to MVFR Saturday night and then to VFR Sunday. This will be the rule through early next week. The northern sites, meanwhile, will remain IFR through 06z Sunday with gradual improvement to MVFR on Sunday. Steady rain will taper to showers on Sunday as well. MVFR conditions and showery weather will prevail at the northern sites through early next week. Snow may mix with the rain at times overnight, particularly at FVE. && .MARINE... UPDATE...extended SCA through tonight as winds will pick up again tonight as the low approaches the coast. There could be localized gales and this will have to be watched later today. NEAR TERM: The wind increased late last evening and the seas are now running around 6 feet early this morning at the Eastern Maine Shelf and at 44027. The current small craft advisory runs through 18Z today. The wind and seas will likely drop below sca levels later today, but will increase again tonight, but will hold off on any headlines as a gale watch might be required over the weekend. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to build through the day Saturday in response to low pressure lifting north through New England. Southwest winds of 20 to 25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt are expected to develop by Saturday evening, and these conditions will persist through the remainder of the weekend. Seas will build to 10- 13 ft during this time frame. Additional headlines may be needed. && .HYDROLOGY... Rain will fall at times today through Saturday, and some of the rain may fall heavily at times tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected through Saturday with locally higher amounts possible, especially across far northwestern portions of the forecast area. Rivers are running very low and mainstem river flooding is not expected, but smaller streams will likely see sharp rises. Ponding of water on roads is expected during the next couple of days. Leaves will likely clog storm drains, and culverts that are plugged with debris will fill. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCW Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...CB/MCW/Hastings Marine...CB/MCW/Hastings Hydrology...Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.