Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 232015 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 315 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. STRENGTHENING LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE EVENING THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFING SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS STORM TRACK WILL PRODUCE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WASHINGTON AND HANDCOCK COUNTIES. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF... ALL OF WHICH HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION... FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL INITIALIZE WITH THE SUPER BLEND THEN RAISE BOTH MINIMUM AND MAXMUM TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST TO NOVA SCOTIA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE GENERAL TREND HAVING BEEN TO WARM THINGS JUST A TAD AND TO SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WE STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE A DEFORMATION BAND WILL SET UP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES UNDER THIS BAND, WITH A VERY SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDE. WITH THE SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT, WE`VE ALSO SHIFTED THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE IS NOW ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE, WITH INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WASHINGTON, HANCOCK SEEING 8 TO 12 INCHES. WE HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THESE REGIONS. THE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL MIX WITH SNOW FOR A TIME SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT LOWER, MORE IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE. ALSO, ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARNING AREA, LOCATIONS SUCH AS HOULTON, MILLINOCKET, AND DOVER- FOXCROFT WILL SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES, SO HAVE PUT THESE AREAS IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WELL. THE STORM IS A FAST MOVER, SO THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, LEADING TO DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MSLY FAIR AND VERY COLD...WITH THE COLDEST OVRNGT LOWS OVR THE FAR NRN QUARTER OF ME...WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAREST AND WINDS LIGHTEST UNDER A RIDGE OF CAN SFC HI PRES. OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...HI/MID CLDNSS AND A NE BREEZE WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO MOVE ENE FROM THE NC COAST. THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS ATTM SLIDES MOST OF THE PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF SN JUST S OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS THE DOWNEAST COAST GETTING GRAZED WHERE WE WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS. ANOTHER...NOT AS COLD AS ARCTIC AIR MASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRES MOVG WELL S OF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST FOR OUR REGION TUE NGT AND WED. THE NEXT CHC OF MAINLY LGT SN WILL BE LATER THU INTO THU NGT WITH A SFC LOW AND S/WV MOVG E FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN...APCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES...THE 12Z OPNL GFS DIFFERS ON THE CALIBER OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH FOLLOWS FOR LATER FRI INTO FRI NGT...WITH THE GFS MUCH COLDER THAN THE ECMWF. WE TOOK A BLENDED APCH FOR TEMPS ON FRI...REFLECTING A COMPROMISE FOR NOW UNTIL WE GET BETTER RESOLUTION OF THIS DIFFERENCE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS OVR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DECREASING TO MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KPQI THIS AFTERNOON. OVER SOUTH VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KBGR AND KBHB LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBHB AND KBGR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 08Z AS WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVES ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. THE OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY BE MVFR, THOUGH IFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KHUL. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY 12Z SUNDAY AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END AND SKIES CLEAR. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. THEN MAINLY VFR MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH LGT SN POSSIBLE ON TUE AT KBHB.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS. FOR WAVES: CURRENTLY PRIMARY WAVE GROUP IS OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS DEPENDENT ON DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM (1-2 FEET/9 SECONDS). TONIGHT WIND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET/5-6 SECONDS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. HAVE RUN NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL AT 1200Z THIS MORNING AND WILL USE THIS FOR WAVE GRIDS. SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT THE GALE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 25 KT.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-029>031. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...MIGNONE/HASTINGS MARINE...MIGNONE/HASTINGS

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