Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211312 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 912 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 910 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME ACTIVITY MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO BANGOR, ELLSWORTH, AND EVEN MACHIAS. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT NEARLY AS GENEROUS WITH THE PRECIP AND KEEP IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH. BUT THE HRRR DID VERY WELL WITH THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY, SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR EVERYWHERE BASICALLY NORTH OF BANGOR. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS COMBINED W/SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM) AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY. STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA

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