Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 081457 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 957 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain to our south today then move east tonight. Low pressure will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday and track toward Nova Scotia Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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957 AM Update: See marine section below. Previous Discussion... An area of low pressure will pass to the north later tonight bringing more clouds to the far north. Low pressure off the Mid- Atlantic states will be intensifying tonight and this will also bring clouds into coastal areas later tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Coastal low expected to bring first snowstorm to the area Sat aftn into Sun and wl be the primary focus for the short term. Main players are srn stream wv and accompanying lopres in the Gulf of Mexico along with strong s/wv dropping south out of Nunavut into Manitoba Canada per latest WV imagery. Nrn and srn stream wvs wl phase Sat mrng ovr the mid-Atlantic resulting in lopres deepening off of the Carolina coast. Expect this low to deepen as it heads northeast and close to the benchmark Sat aftn. All model guidance has trended west with coastal and expecting moderate accumulations of snow acrs bulk of the CWA. Hv sided more twd GFS/EC soln as NAM appears to be 6 hrs slower than other guidance, including GFS and EC ensembles. Expect pcpn to mv in fm waters mid-late Sat mrng into coastal areas. Temps along the immediate coast wl be in the low-mid 30s at the time pcpn begins tho outer islands expected to be in the m/u30s. Expect rain along the outer islands drg the day Sat with areas further inland likely seeing rain/snow mix into the aftn. Best guess at this time is rain/snow mix area located btwn Route 9 and Route 6 in the aftn. Areas to the north of Route 6 lkly to see all snow drg the day with temps topping out right arnd frzg. Sat night wl lkly be when area sees the brunt of the snowfall with almost negligible differences btwn GFS and EC regarding temps aloft except right along the immediate coast. Along the coast expect that as hvy pcpn occurs mainly snow wl be falling and as pcpn lightens will lkly see a rain/snow mix Sat night. Srn and ern areas wl see highest qpf totals Sat aftn into Sun aftn with lkly a sharp gradient to qpf acrs the North Woods. 30-hr qpf amnts wl range from arnd 1 inch near Eastport area to 0.2 inches in the northwest. Widespread snowfall amnts wl range between 3-7 inches across the majority of the region with the exception of right along the northwest Canadian border and the outer islands. Highest snow totals look to occur in the Upper Penobscot Vly and southeast Aroostook where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for amnts around 7 inches. Just a slight jog to the east with the coastal wl result in lower totals in this area while a shift to the west wl bring higher totals to interior locations. Best omega progged to be in the watch area while potential for frontogenesis exists in these locations as well. Snow wl vry slowly come to and end Sun aftn as low heads into the Maritimes and upr lvl trof mvs thru CWA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Clipper system wl mv thru on Monday bfr next system dives south into the Upr Midwest Mon night. Snow wl spread into the area Tue mrng with another potential coastal dvlpng for mid-week. GFS brings a lakes runner thru the northeast Tue night while EC dvlps coastal ovr the benchmark Wed mrng. At the same time the latest GEM has lopres well south of Nova Scotia. GFS ensemble mean indicates coastal ovr the Gulf of Maine 12z Wed, similar to operational EC. Ensemble members for both models are pretty much all over the place and expect guidance wl come into better agreement ovr the weekend. Temps thru the pd wl be well blo normal as troffing conts to spill arctic air into the northeast. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions today and tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR expected Sat morning before decreasing to LIFR in the afternoon at BHB and BGR in rain/snow mix. Northern terminals expected to see restrictions drop during the day as snow works its way north with LIFR expected Saturday night. Conditions will improve to MVFR Sun evening. VFR expected for southern terminals on Monday with ocnl MVFR/IFR conditions across the north as clipper passes. Next system approaching from the west may bring lowered restrictions on Tuesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Update...Decided to drop the SCA as the winds and seas are coming down w/the latest obs showing sustained 15 kts w/some gusts to 20 kts. Seas are down to 5 ft. Previous... For Waves: Currently south- southwesterly wind wave is the primary waves system. There is also a secondary long period swell system present which was originally generated last Wednesday. This long period group will continue to subside today but the wind wave system will persist today then subside tonight as winds diminish. Will use the NWPS to initialize wave grids as boundary conditions for the long period swell appear to verify quite well. Will extend the SCA until 18Z. Both wind wave and secondary swell system will be subsiding this afternoon so expect conditions to fall below SCA at that time. SHORT TERM: Conditions will fall below SCA levels on Saturday before seas increase to above 5ft Sat evening with winds increasing to aoa 25kts. Seas on Sun increase to 8-10 feet with winds approaching gale force during the afternoon in strong cold air advection. Winds diminish Mon afternoon though seas will be above 5ft into Tue morning.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for MEZ006-011-032. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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