Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261112 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 712 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6 AM UPDATE...AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IS LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL MOVE AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MIDDAY TODAY. MODIFIED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO REFLECT THIS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR DOWNEAST AREAS UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING WITH VSBYS REPORTED DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN SPOTS. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE BREEZE WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS INTO THE MARITIMES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH ON MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A NARROW RIDGE AXIS MAY PROVIDE SOME CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. QPF VALUES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH ARE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE ONE IT REPLACES...THEREFORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS /10 TO 15 DEGREES/ ARE ANTICIPATED. MUCH COLDER AIR USHERS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTENSE AND COMPLEX VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM:IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH IN LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DOWNEAST MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS DOWNEAST WILL BE MAINLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES ON MONDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TODAY AND TONGHT. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE MARITIMES. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING FOR SEAS 4-7 FEET AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...BLOOMER/OKULSKI MARINE...BLOOMER/OKULSKI

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