Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201902 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 302 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY CROSSES THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST WITH THE SETTING SUN. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TO KEEP WINDS BLOWING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL PRECLUDE FROST DEVELOPMENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST PLACES. THE USUAL COLD SPOTS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE NORTH WOODS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID 30S, AND CAN`T RULE OUT EVEN COLDER READINGS IF LOCATIONS LIKE BIG BLACK OR ESTCOURT STATION ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE. THURSDAY WILL START OFF WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE DAY, AND EVEN THEN SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO FAR NORTH AND WEST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE AGAIN, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY. THANKFULLY IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER TOMORROW, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROF/LOW MOVG SE FROM JAMES BAY WILL BRING CLDNSS BACK TO THE FA THU NGT...ALG WITH SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK FRI WHERE WE GO AS HIGH AS LIKELY POPS....CONT W TO E THRU THE DAY FRI MODELS ALSO SHOW A SEPARATE COASTAL LOW WITH MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COASTLINE ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV ENERGY MOVE E IN A MORE SRN BR OF THE UPPER JET DUG THIS TM. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE RNFL FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS WELL S OF NOVA SCOTIA. PRE-COLD FRONTAL SHWRS WILL EXIT THE FA FRI NGT WITH DRIER MID LVL AIR ROTATING ARND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE FA. WITH THE UPPER LOW XPCTD TO THEN DROP SE OVR THE FA BY SAT MORN... MORE SCT SHWRS ARE XPCTD. WITH VERY COLD 925-850 MB TEMPS...WE CANNOT RULE OUT RN/SN OR EVEN ALL WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR THE HIGHER TRRN ERLY SAT MORN BEFORE SFC TEMPS WARM LATER IN THE MORN FOR ALL RN SHWRS AGAIN. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE BRIEF AND VERY MINIMAL AT MOST. TEMPS WILL BE MSLY BELOW AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON...SPCLY DURG DAYLIGHT HRS WHEN CLD CVR...SHWRS AND LLVL COLD ADVCN WILL KEEP DIURNAL REBOUND OF TEMPS SMALL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY AND SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INTO THE DOWNEAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A STRAY SHOWER DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH SUSNHINE GIVING WAY TO SOME CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BRINGS A RETURN FLOW AND SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD NIGHT IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY THEN APPROACH ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THEN LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. DRIER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW THE SYSTEM WITH SOME CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THEREAFTER WITH PERHAPS A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AT KFVE. SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD AT TAF SITES...WITH MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH SHWRS FRI AND SAT...MSLY NRN TAF SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THE RELATIVELY COLD OCEAN WATER CONTINUES TO LIMIT MIXING AND THEREBY KEEPS WIND GUSTS BELOW 20 KT. THIS WILL BE THE TREND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WAVES WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET. SHORT TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS...THEN WINDS AND WVS SLOWLY RAMP UP FRI AND FRI NGT...INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA ON SAT AS WNW LLVL WRLY GRADIENT MAXIMIZES BETWEEN RETREATING LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN N ATLC AND ADVCG HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLC STATES. KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE THIS UPDATE FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST GRIDS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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