Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211418 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1018 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend. Low pressure will approach on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 9:45 AM: Extended pops further south this afternoon as well as the enhanced wording for small hail and gusty winds. Also increased today`s highs...especially in the southern half of the forecast area where a few 90F readings are possible. There is a pre-frontal trough that is currently in northern zones. This trough has a lot of mid-level clouds and scattered showers that will reduce temps. However, south of a line from Greenville to Houlton, temperatures will be much higher. This is also where the highest dew points will be found. The thermal gradient lining up with the pre-frontal trough and the exit region of a strong upper jet presents concern for a few strong storms this afternoon. Shear is favorable and low-level lapse rates will be steep. On the other hand, the best CAPE and mid- level lapse rates will actually move east into New Brunswick before peak heating. To be sure, the most conducive convective environment this afternoon will be east of the forecast area, but it`s too close to dismiss the threat here. The second feature that will cross the area with showers and a few thunderstorms will be the actual cold front in the evening. The showers and thunderstorms will be mostly in Aroostook County. Behind this front, dew points will rapidly drop off night and set us up for a much more comfortable day on Saturday. Previous discussion... A cold front will move across the region today. This will result in showers and some scattered thunderstorms, especially across the north today. Will mention gusty winds an small hail along with the thunderstorms. Skies are expected to clear later tonight as drier and cooler air moves into the region behind the front. Temperatures will drop into the 50s in the north and near 60 south tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Nwrly flow wl dominate the state on Sat as 1015mb sfc hipres builds in fm Canada. Upr lvl low east of Hudson Bay wl keep gnrl troffiness acrs the northeast thru the weekend. Dry wx and sunny skies expected on Sat bfr next system mvs in fm the west. Sfc low currently ovr wrn MT wl gradually shift east thru the end of the week. Sfc front wl appch the region late Sat aftn but believe enuf dry air wl be in place to prevent any showers fm dvlpng ovr the CWA. Pleasant day on tap for Sat with highs in the l70s in the north to l80s in Downeast and dwpts falling into the lwr 40s drg the aftn acrs the Crown of Maine. Hv backed off on pops for Sat ngt and Sun altho med range guidance conts to disagree what eventually wl happen to low riding along bndry. NAM has been most consistent with keeping sfc low and assoc qpf south of even the waters btwn 06z and 12z Sun. GFS, EC and CMC hv trended back and forth btwn throwing qpf into Downeast zones and then keeping it south next model run. For time being have indicated just isold showers mainly ovr coastal zones and outer islands late Sat ngt. Latest EC also keeps CWA dry thru the day Sun which lends credence to reducing pops for the entire weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Med range guidance differs on strength of sfc high for Sun night with NAM bringing ridge axis down acrs CWA while GFS, EC and CMC keeping it acrs wrn Quebec and allowing H5 trof to rmn further to the north in srn Canada (GFS, EC, CMC) as opposed to NAM (nrn OH). S/wv wl be flung fm H5 trof early in the week and keep chc showers thru the middle of the week bfr s/wv ridging builds in on Wed. Ridging quickly breaks down as next H5 trof appchs fm James Bay area on Thu with renewed pcpn chcs thru the end of the week. Temps wl settle out blo normal thru the long term pd of the fcst. Tue wl lkly be the coolest day of the week with cldy and showery conds expected as upr lvl trof swings thru. Expect moderation in temps thru the end of the week. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected through the weekend as a system moves well south of the state. Cannot rule out a brief MVFR cig at BHB Sun morning but chances are becoming very low with time. Restrictions lower Mon afternoon and continue into Tue in scattered showers and low cigs. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have initialized the winds with the NAM and will reduce model wind speed by 20 percent due to cold sea surface temperature. For Waves: Observations from both 44027 and 44005 showing long period swell from the southeast. The primary system running around 2 feet/11 seconds. There is also a secondary very long period group at around 1 foot/15 seconds. Expect long period swell to persist through tonight. Wind wave will remain well under 1 foot. Have initialized waves with the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) and will lower model heights by 1 foot to adjust for high bias. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below SCA levels through the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Mignone/MCW Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/MCW/Farrar Marine...Mignone/MCW/Farrar

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