Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281256 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 856 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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855 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND KEPT FOG GOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST THOUGH MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 INDICATE DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C/KM FROM 850-700MB ALONG W/SOME WARMING IN THE LLVLS IN THIS REGION. SB CAPES FOR FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL W/LIS DROPPING TO -5. K INDEX HITTING 35 W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. PLUS, LIGHTNING SHOWING UP A BATCH OF TSTMS OVER WESTERN NH AND MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD HOLD TOGETHER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. AGREE W/NERFC AND WPC ON HEAVY RAINFALL W/A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS; RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY, SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA, ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS. AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S, WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS FURTHER N AND E. SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI. ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES... HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU THU/FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG. SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT... SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT 70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN

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