Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 300134 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 934 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 934 PM...A COOL/DRY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT/CALM WIND...AND WET GROUND WILL LEAD TO FOG FORMATION. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. POTENTIAL THAT THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE 9 PM OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM 925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG. THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS. AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY, BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT. SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. && .CLIMATE... IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41 KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY CLIMATE...CB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.