Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 142058 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 358 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will track to our north on Thursday. A cold front will approach Thursday night into Friday and cross the area Friday evening.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Mild weather will continue into Thursday. Temps have risen well into the 30s across much of the CWA w/sites across Downeast seeing lower 40s. So, some melt was occurring. The latest satl imagery showed some partial clearing and this is expected through the evening. Temps will drop off after sunset for a while given dewpoints still in the teens and lower 20s. Temps look like they will level off later at night as a light ssw wind sets in. The NAM and RAP soundings both show an inversion setting up overnight w/moisture getting trapped below 2000 feet. Given this and the ssw wind aloft, decided to bring some low clouds into the region overnight into Thursday. The short range guidance including the GEM, HRRR and GFS show some light precip moving into western areas overnight into early Thursday morning. This precip looks to be in response to disturbance aloft moving across the region. There could be a brief period of light freezing drizzle or flurries across the western and far northern areas into Thursday morning. Most of this activity will be aloft and very light. Not expecting any problems w/this potential. Temps overnight are expected to be in the 20s overnight. Some low lying sites could see upper teens given the inversion. For Thursday, temps will start their rise as a warm front lifts across the region during the day. This front looks like it will trigger some light snow showers or rain showers especially in the afternoon. There could be some light freezing drizzle in the morning. Best chance for anything measurable will be across the far north and west. Afternoon temps are forecast to reach well into the 30s across the northern 1/2 of the CWA w/lower 40s central and Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Low pressure will lift to our northeast Thursday night while another weak area of low pressure tracks east across the Gulf of Maine. Expect mainly cloudy skies Thursday night with the chance of northern snow showers and rain or snow showers down east. A arctic boundary will cross the region on Friday with snow showers across northern and central areas and perhaps a snow squall. Much colder air will follow the frontal passage for Friday night. After an unseasonably warm Thursday night with lows only in the low to mid 30s, low temperatures Friday night will fall into the single digits below zero across the far north and the single digits above zero across much of the rest of the area by Saturday morning. Saturday is shaping up as an unseasonably cold but dry day as high pressure builds east. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid to upper teens north and low to mid 20s down east.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Saturday night we will need to keep any eye on on area of low pressure that will be moving east of the mid atlantic coast. 12z operational models keep the low well south of the Gulf of Maine putting the down east coast on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. There are some ensemble members that favor a track a bit closer to the area. A model blended solution yields chance pops reaching all the way into northern areas by later Saturday night and Sunday morning. In any event, the system will be a progressive open wave with any snow early Sunday diminishing by afternoon. Expect fair weather Sunday night and Monday as high pressure builds back in. Forecast confidence for the early to middle part of next week is not all that great. Uncertainty exists with regard to the extent of the upper ridging along the east coast next week and just where a frontal boundary will set up, separating much milder air to our south and colder air to our north. The latest EC is stronger with the ridging into northern New England than the latest GFS is. Just exactly where the boundary sets up will determine the type and extent of any precipitation. This is way out there so just followed a model blended solution yielding snow or rain chances by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for most part tonight. It looks as though some low clouds could set up overnight into early Thursday. Attm, leaned w/MVFR cigs for all terminals. Any chance for freezing/frozen precip will be for KFVE, but precip looks to be light. MVFR early Thursday and then conditions go to VFR. SHORT TERM: MVFR or lower conditions possible Thursday night in low ceilings and snow rain showers. MVFR or lower is possible on Friday with the passage of an arctic cold front. Best chances for IFR conditions will be across the north on Friday with potential snow showers or squalls. VFR conditions return Saturday through Monday. Small chance we could see MVFR or lower in snow KBGR/KBHB Saturday night into early Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Dropped the SCA for the intra-coastal waters w/this package and kept it in place for the outer zones through 1 AM. Winds and seas are forecast to drop off below 20 kts and 6 ft respectively after midnight. Expecting conditions to remain below SCA into Thursday. SHORT TERM: Strong SCA or even Gale Force Wind gusts could be expected in the northwest flow behind an exiting cold front Friday night and Saturday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Hewitt/Duda Marine...Hewitt/Duda

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