Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241811 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 111 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND TRACK INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 107 PM UPDATE...HRLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN LINE PER THE 3HR TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING WILL HELP TO CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS IS THIN PER THE METARS AND WEBCAMS. CONSIDERING WINTER WX HEADLINES FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT AND MUCH TO LOOK OVER BEFORE NAILING IT DOWN. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN FURTHER DETAIL W/THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO START FALLING ALONG OUR COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EARLY, ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNEAST AREAS AS THEY WILL RISE TO NEARLY 30F BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATE TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, SO WE EXPECT SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST LOCATIONS COULD GET A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO KEEP SNOW RATIOS ON THE LOWER SIDE. AS SUCH, DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO TO ACCUMULATE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SNFL TO AFFECT OUR FA WEN MORN INTO MIDDAY AS A SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NE FROM THE GULF OF ME INTO SE NB THRU THE BAY OF FUNDY. SIG...BUT COMPACT DYNAMIC LIFT OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM PARTICULARLY OVR DOWNEAST...E CNTRL AND NE PTNS OF THE REGION FROM WED MORN INTO ERLY AFTN BEFORE THE STEADY SN SHIELD MOVES NE OF THE REGION. WITH EVENT TOTAL QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA...IT APPEARS WE WILL NEED WNTR WX ADVS FOR SN. WE WENT WITH MAX SN TO LIQ RATIOS OF 16 TO 17:1 INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR FZG RIGHT ALG THE COAST DURING THE TM OF MAX LLVL WARM ADVCN REDUCING RATIOS TO 10:1 OR SO...OTHERWISE WE WOULD APCH WRNG CRITERIA SNFL HERE GIVEN THIS IS THE AREA WHERE THE MAX QPF IS XPCTD WITH THIS EVENT. IN FACT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN HR OR TWO OF MIXED RN/SN ALG THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS DURG THE MORN TO MIDDAY HRS. GIVEN OUR CURRENT WIND CHILL HDLNS...WE WILL HOLD OFF TIL LATER TO ISSUE WNTR WX ADVS FOR THIS EVENT...WITH ALL ZONES S AND E OF 1...3....4 AND 10 LIKELY TO BE INCLUDED IF THE CURRENT LOW TRACK HOLDS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A SHARP CUTOFF OVR THE NW PTN OF THE REGION...WITH NRN SOMERSET AND PTNS OF XTRM NW AROOSTOOK COUNTY RECEIVING LITTLE AND PERHAPS NO SNFL. SN WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF WED AFTN EVEN ACROSS NERN ME. MODELS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF BACKSIDE SFC PRES GRAD OVR OUR FA LATE WED AFTN INTO WED NGT... WITH THE 00Z GFS STRONGEST AND THE 00Z ECMWF WEAKEST. FOR NOW WE HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY BLSN...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A PD OF PATCHY BLSN FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF FALLING SNFL. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR WED NGT THRU FRI...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS FOLLOWS...BUT THE CALIBER OF THIS AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION YSTDY INTO ERLY THIS MORN. AFT THE ADVCN PD WED NGT...MODELS INDICATE A MDTLY GOOD POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NGT UNDER MSLY CLR SKIES... WITH A LONG SFC HI RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE REGION...SUGGESTING THAT SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS COULD EXPERIENCE VERY COLD LOWS FRI MORN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... POTENTIALLY...ONE MORE VERY COLD NGT FRI NGT FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT MODIFYING...BUT STILL SIG BLO AVG HI TEMPS ON SAT UNDER MSLY CLR SKIES AS THE SFC HI PRES RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE FA. WITH THE CORE OF THE HI TRACKING EWRD OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST...LOW TEMPS SAT NGT WILL LIKELY BE HELD UP SOME BY A LGT WRLY BREEZE...EVEN OVR NRN BROAD VLY AREAS. SUN SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL REBOUND IN HI TEMPS...WITH INCREASING CLDNSS IN THE AFTN AS LOW PRES FROM THE SRN PLAINS BEGINS TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. LGT OVRRNG SNFL WILL BREAK OUT W TO E OVR THE REGION SUN NGT AND CONT INTO MON... ACCOMPANIED BY MILDER TEMPS BEFORE TAPERING TO SN SHWRS LATER MON AFTN INTO MON EVE. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LLVL WARMING FOR A RN/SN MIX ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST BY MON MORN AS SOUTH WINDS BRINGS MILDER ATLC AIR INTO THIS PTN OF THE FA. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNEAST THIS EVENING, 21Z-00Z, AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT IN NATURE, THOUGH KBGR AND KBHB COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN LIGHT SNOW, WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN HEAVIER SNOW AFTER 06Z. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES WED MORN IN SNFL...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR AND VFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTN AS SN TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS AND ENDS. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THU THRU SAT...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR BKN-OVC SC AT NRN MOST TAF SITES THU. && .MARINE... FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL COME DOWN W/THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY SPRAY EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SO LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD WED...PERHAPS INTO THU ACROSS OUR WATERS...THEN BELOW SCA WINDS/SEAS XPCTD THU NGT THRU SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT A PD OF MDT FZGSPY OVR OUR WATERS THU MORN AS COLDER ARCTIC AIR RETURNS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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