Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191002 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 602 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will cross the region this morning and will move off the Downeast coast this afternoon. High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend. The next weather system will bring rain to the area Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:02 AM Update...A cold front is just moving into far northwest Aroostook County and will sweep rapidly south and east across the CWA this morning, and into the Gulf of Maine this afternoon. The front will be accompanied by a few showers across northern portions of the CWA, but will dry out as it pushes rapidly into the Downeast Region later this morning. Much drier air will move into northern Maine this morning and filter south toward the coast this afternoon. Made some minor adjustments to the grids based on the latest observations and radar. Previous discussion... A strong cold front will sweep across the CWA this morning and will push off the Downeast coast by early this afternoon. The 925H temp on the 00z KCAR sounding yesterday evening was a remarkable +26C, which is in record territory for this time of year, and very close to May 22, 1977, when Caribou had the all time high of 96F. The air mass cools dramatically today with 925H temps expected to drop back into the single digits (C) across northern Maine this morning. There will be a small opportunity for warming ahead of the cold front across Downeast Maine, but highs will be reached by late morning or midday and will fall back a bit during the afternoon. There will be a few showers this morning across northern portions of the CWA associated with the frontal passage, but the moisture dries up as the front swings south across the remainder of the area. In the wake of the front, it will be a breezy day with a northwest wind gusting to 30 to 35 mph. High pressure in western Quebec begins to slowly build toward the region late tonight. A breeze will continue into the night as decent gradient remains across the area. It will be much cooler with lows in the 30s north to around 40 degrees across the Downeast Region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Nice weekend shaping up weather wise as Canadian high pressure builds across the region. Abundant sunshine can be expected on Saturday along with gusty north winds. High temperatures on Saturday will be a bit below normal for this time of year, with mid to upper 50s north and lower 60s down east. Saturday night will be clear and unseasonably cold as the combination of clear skies and light winds allows for good radiational cooling conditions. Will mention patchy frost in the colder sheltered valley locations where a few low temperatures in the low 30s are expected. Sunday will be mostly sunny with some increase in afternoon clouds expected. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s across the area which is near normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upcoming week looks to be unsettled. The first system will approach Sunday night through Monday with showers likely. A bit of a break is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of the next system. However, another low will bring the chance for a steadier rainfall by later Wednesday into Thursday. Highs on Monday will be below normal, near to a bit above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, then near normal on Thursday. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Highly variable conditions at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE this morning ranging from IFR to VFR. Conditons will improve to VFR this afternoon. VFR at the Downeast terminals today. VFR at all terminals tonight. As a cold front crosses the region today a northwest wind will gust to 30 knots at times. SHORT TERM:VFR through the weekend. MVFR conditions will be possible early next week in showers associated with next system. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect today until 8 PM this evening as a strong cold front crosses the waters early this afternoon with a gusty wind. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below advisory levels through the weekend and into early next. && .CLIMATE... Please see the latest public information statement for a list of temperature records that were established across the region yesterday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Duda Marine...CB/Duda Climate...CB

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