Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211349 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 949 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. High pressure will cross the region Thursday. A warm front then lifts across the region Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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945 AM update...Showers starting to develop along and ahead of a cold front that is crossing Quebec. The most concentrated activity still lies over eastern Quebec, but we are seeing some showers pop up over northern areas at this hour. This is a tad faster than was previously forecasted, so have sped things up just a bit. Still anticipate a few stronger storms, with small hail the main threat. Gusty winds will be possible as well. A few storms may approach/exceed severe limits, especially over far eastern Aroostook and Washington Counties, which will have the most time for destabilization before the front comes through. It`s a fast moving front, so the threat for thunderstorms looks to be over by 4 or 5 this afternoon, though scattered showers will still be possible, especially over northern areas. The forecast has most of this well covered, so other than the aforementioned timing changes, no significant changes were needed. Previous discussion... The cold front will be accompanied by an upper trough and will bring a significantly cooler and drier air mass for tonight into Thursday. The front will start affecting northwestern portions of the forecast area by late this morning and will sweep across most of the area in the early to mid afternoon with the last of the storms exiting Washington County late this afternoon. The amount of CAPE, lapse rates and shear suggests thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail, but severe storms do not look widespread at this point. The front will cross the area before peak afternoon heating. There is a lot of dry air in the lower levels and somewhat of an inverted V this afternoon. This structure and the winds aloft compelled mention of the gusty winds. The lower freezing level today and a decent amount of hail CAPE prompted mention of small hail. A few instances of quarter-sized hail or more can`t be ruled out. Downpours with the front could bring a quick half-inch, but this is a much different environment than this past Monday with much less PW and a low trop. Flooding issues are not anticipated. In addition to a well-defined surface trough and a vigorous shortwave, the LFQ of an upper jet looks like it`ll coincide with the front this afternoon towards southern Aroostook County to enhance the storms. Highs today will be cooler with lower humidity. The warmest temperatures in the forecast area will be found towards the coast with the offshore flow. The front will be out of the area this evening with cooler and drier air advecting into the area tonight. Lows will drop to upper 40s to lower 50s north and lower to mid 50s for Bangor and the Down East region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will cross the region Thursday with partly/mostly sunny skies across the forecast area. High pressure then moves east Thursday night with a warm front approaching late. Cloud cover will increase Thursday night. Could also have a slight chance of rain late mostly across northwestern portions of the forecast area. The warm front will cross the region Friday with rain developing. Generally expect the steadier rains and greater rain totals across northern areas. Could also have the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm Friday. A cold front begins to cross the region Friday night with rain and the chance of an evening thunderstorm. Temperatures will be at near normal levels Thursday/Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front will exit the region early Saturday with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers in advance of the front, with decreasing clouds in the wake of the front. Unsettled conditions with a chance of showers are then expected across the region Sunday through Tuesday with a series of cold fronts/trofs and upper level disturbances. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday/Sunday. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Monday/Tuesday. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected through the period. Thunderstorms will build towards midday into this afternoon. Small hail is possible along with gusts well over 30 kts. Tops may reach FL300. Storms will quickly diminish this evening. SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Thursday through much of Thursday night, though MVFR conditions could begin to develop late. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Friday through early Saturday. Generally expect VFR conditions later Saturday into Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Longer period south to southwest swell looks like it will continue into tonight and have extended the Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas until late tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Thursday through Thursday night. Small craft advisory level seas are then expected Friday into Friday night. Visibilities will be reduced in rain Friday afternoon into Friday night, along with areas of fog Friday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Hastings/MCW/Norcross Marine...Hastings/MCW/Norcross

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