Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271630 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1230 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS THIS MORNING. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... SFC TROFS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE CWA TONIGHT WITH NEXT BNDRY HVG GONE THRU CARIBOU AS OF 06Z AND DROPPING SOUTH. NW WINDS PICK UP BHND THE TROF TO ABOUT 10KTS. VRY FEW CLDS ARE ASSOC WITH BNDRY WITH EXTENSIVE CLD CVR WELL RMVD UP INTO CNTRL QUEBEC. EXPECT CLDS WL MV INTO NRN ZONES ARND DAYBREAK AND DROP SOUTH THRU CWA DRG THE DAY. TEMPS WL LKLY RMN IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS ACRS THE NORTH WOODS WITH SOME LOCALES POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE L40S ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF AREA. DOWNEAST ZONES WL LIKELY SEE SUN FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME TDA AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR MAXES. AS TROF WEAKENS AND PULLS SOUTHEAST ANOTHER WL DVLP ACRS NEW BRUNSWICK AND AFFECT ERN AND DOWNEAST ZONES IN THE AFTN AS NEXT S/WV ROTATES ARND CUT-OFF LOW. SUBSEQUENT TROF WL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO SRN ZONES ALONG WITH PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES. NW FLOW BHND TROF MAY BRING ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR NORTH DRG THE AFTN/OVRNGT HRS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE TEENS ACRS THE FAR NORTH AND CANNOT RULE OUT HALF-INCH ACCUMS IN SOME AREAS BY MRNG. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A CORE OF COLD AIR REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION WILL BE PUSHING THE COLD AIR IN EASTERN CANADA DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT TREND CLEARER LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES. THE STRONG SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW THE AIR TO MODIFY AFTER A COLD MORNING BUT HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE STRONG, DEEP AND COLD TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL, WEEK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL BRING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION ON BOTH DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE PROLONGED DRY SPELL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CONTINUED HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY POTENTIAL MVFR CIG WL EXIST AT FVE DRG THE AFTN HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF AT THIS TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD -SHSN AT FVE, CAR OR PQI BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NIL. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING MAY RESULT IN SOME GUSTY, PUFFY WINDS AND A BIT OF TURBULENCE BOTH DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT GUSTS WILL BE OVER 20KTS SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RMN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THUR MRNG. SHORT TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BLOOMER MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BLOOMER

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