Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271028 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 628 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...EXTENDED THE PATCHY FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE ANY FOG BURNS OFF A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE, BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF FORECAST QUITE YET. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO 8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS

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