Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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884 FXUS61 KCAR 190517 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1217 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure will approach from the west tonight then cross Maine Sunday drawing a cold front across the region. High pressure will build toward the region later Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1215 AM update...No significant changes were made with this update. Precipitation continues to spread into the region and now covers the Katahdin region south to the coast. Note that Millinocket reported unknown precip this hour at 31F, while Houlton is 32F. Locations south of this area are mainly above freezing, while northern locations are still 25-30F. The forecast is pretty much on track at this point, so only made some minor adjustments to incorporate the latest observations. Previous discussion...Intensifying low pressure will approach from the west tonight drawing a warm front toward the region. The low will track across northern Maine Sunday drawing the warm front across the region during the morning, with a cold front then crossing during the afternoon. Precipitation will develop across the region early tonight then expand northward overnight. Across central and Downeast areas expect precipitation mostly in the form of rain, though a chance of mixed precipitation could exist from southern Piscataquis to northern Washington counties during the onset of precipitation. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory across northern areas overnight where low level cold air will be more persistent with evaporational cooling help maintain the low level cold air. A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain is expected across northern areas overnight. Snow accumulations of up to around an inch are possible with ice accumulations generally a tenth of an inch or less. Precipitation will trend toward rain later tonight with warmer air moving north. Could still have a chance of freezing rain across the Saint John Valley early Sunday. Otherwise, rain is expected across the region Sunday. The rain will diminish in the wake of the cold front Sunday afternoon, with a chance of afternoon snow showers across the north and mountains. Gusty winds will also develop in the wake of the cold front Sunday, with gusts up to around 40 mph possible. Low temperatures will occur early tonight then warm overnight. High temperatures Sunday will range through the 40s north, to the lower to mid 50s Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deep low pressure lifting north into Quebec will pull strong gusty westerly winds across our area following a cold frontal passage Sunday night. Some rain showers across the north may change over to snow showers before ending Sunday evening. Downeast should be mostly clear. Gusty westerly winds will likely continue through the night and through the day on Monday with the sky mostly cloudy over the north Monday and mostly clear Downeast. Monday night and Tuesday will continue to be dry. A southerly wind will increase behind departing high pressure on Tuesday which will bring milder air across the region during the afternoon. Tuesday will be partly cloudy to mostly clear and dry. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Looking ahead to mid-week, our focus will be on a southern branch shortwave lurking across the deep south and a trough of low pressure sliding through the Great Lakes region. The question is when or if a shortwave diving through the lakes trough will pick up the southern branch wave to bring it north as an east coast storm. The latest GFS keeps Wednesday into Thursday dry and tranquil then lifts a system offshore Thursday night to brush southeastern areas with some snow and coastal rain. The ECMWF is now only bringing a front through on Wednesday with the rest of the southern branch low sliding well to the south. This is a big difference from last nights ECMWF which was bringing the southern low well north and warming up the atmosphere enough for rain. Given the complexity of how a northern branch shortwave may mesh with the southern branch wave, it may take a couple days to iron out the details of this system. For now will keep forecast close to ECMWF and model blend with showers possible on Wednesday, but otherwise dry through the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions early tonight will lower to IFR/LIFR levels overnight. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected early Sunday, with MVFR/IFR conditions during the afternoon. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will occur across northern areas overnight with rain across the remainder of the region. Generally rain is expected across the region Sunday, though a wintry mix could still be possible across the Saint John Valley early. West to southwest winds could gust up to around 40 mph Sunday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Strong gusty winds may result in some turbulance Sunday evening. Conditions will likely be MVFR to VFR across the north and VFR Downeast. VFR conditions are likely Monday through Tuesday. Conditions may drop to MVFR for a period Tuesday night as a cold front moves through. VFR conditions are then likely Wednesday into Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will increase overnight along with building seas. A Gale Warning is in effect starting late tonight which will remain in effect through Sunday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and fog later tonight into Sunday. SHORT TERM: A gale will likely be needed for strong gusty westerly winds Sunday evening. A SCA may be needed after that through Tuesday night for continued gusty winds. The wind should finally diminish a bit later Wednesday into Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for MEZ001>006-010. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/Norcross Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Hastings/Norcross/Bloomer Marine...Hastings/Norcross/Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.