Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 040118 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 818 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING NORTH OF THE PINE TREE STATE WILL BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO DOWNEAST MAINE TONIGHT...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 8 PM UPDATE: WE ALSO DROPPED ZONES 5 AND 6 FROM THE WNTR WX ADV BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS INDICATING TEMPS RISING ABV FZG THERE. MODELS CONT TO INDICATE A DRAMATIC LLVL WARMING TO XTND INTO THE FAR N FROM NOW THRU MDNGT. WE WILL WATCH SFC OBS TO SEE IF SFC TEMPS EXCEED 32 DEG BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER TO XPR THE LAST REMAINING SEGMENT OF WNTR WX ADVS OVR THE FAR N AT 10 PM. OUTSIDE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE LATE NGT BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM. INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WITH GOOD COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE TODAY...BRINGING NUMEROUS PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM AIR IS NOW MAKING A FULL PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH THE DUAL-POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT SHOWING THE CHANGEOVER COMING FROM BOTH THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THOUGH...MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY ACTUALLY END AS SNOW...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE ALL RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 02Z EVEN ACROSS SAINT JOHN VALLEY AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHES IN...WITH TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGER FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE HOW HIGH THE WINDS GET ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING...WITH 925 WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK INCREASING TO 65KTS. ANY MIXING AT ALL WILL BRING THESE WINDS DOWN...BUT IT DEPENDS IF WE GET INTO THE 40S OR NOT TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT SOME 50-55 MPH GUSTS WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. EXPECTED SOME POWER OUTAGES AGAIN FOR WASHINGTON/HANCOCK COUNTY TONIGHT. THE LARGEST THREAT FURTHER INLAND IS ALONG THE HIGHER HILLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY DEPART AFTER 12Z...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THOUGH THROUGH THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS WHERE IS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. IMMEDIATE COASTAL MAY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED MORE NORTHWEST WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WOULD BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT DECIDE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIVES OUT OF QUEBEC LATE SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. RIDGING FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE OPERATIONAL MODELS DEPICT A DEEP AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. THIS POSSIBLE STORM WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO WIND DOWN. IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KBGR/KBHB THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN. ANOTHER LARGE HAZARD IS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60KTS WILL BE LOCATED 2000FT OFF THE DECK. SHORT TERM:MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFVE KPQI KCAR AND KHUL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN SHOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF WINDS MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAX OUT AT 13FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 12Z. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR 5 TO 8 FOOT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001-002. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ016-017. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...CB/OKULSKI AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI

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