Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271001 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 601 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 0600 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TO BETTER FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10 SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER

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