Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180457 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1257 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will crest over the area tonight. A warm front will approach Friday then lift across the area Friday night. An occluded front will slowly cross the region Saturday through Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1255 AM update...No significant changes were made with this update. Current temps are near or below previously posted lows in many locations, so have dropped the expected min temps a few degrees. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. Previous discussion....The area of low pressure to our northeast, both surface and aloft, that has been giving our cool gusty breeze today will exit east across the Maritimes tonight. Winds will diminish this evening and any lingering stratocumulus across the northeast will dissipate as high pressure builds over. Clouds will begin to increase from the southwest late tonight and continue to overspread the area on Friday as a warm front approaches. The front is expected to bring some rain, moving across western areas during the morning and then pushing across the rest of the area by late afternoon. Forecast will include rain instead of showers since this is expected to be an overunning event. Humid air moving across the colder waters may result in some fog over the waters and along the coast by late Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A warm front will lift across the region Friday night. Isentropic lift and precipitable water values increasing to 1.50 to 2.00 inches will support an area of overrunning rain crossing the region Friday night through early Saturday. An occluded front then slowly crosses the region Saturday through Saturday night, with an upper level trof also approaching Saturday night. Shower chances will persist across the forecast area later Saturday into Saturday night, though decreasing across Downeast areas later Saturday night. The heavier rain totals Friday night through Saturday night are expected across Downeast areas where generally 0.75 inch up to around 1.00 inch of rain are expected. Lesser rain totals are expected northward across the remainder of the forecast area with 0.25 inch to 0.50 inch across northern areas, though more uncertainty exists regarding rain totals across the north. The upper trof crosses the region Sunday keeping a chance of showers along with mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies across the north and mountains with partly sunny skies and only a slight chance of showers Downeast. Temperatures will be at slightly below normal levels Saturday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some weak upper ridging and a surface high passing to the south should allow for clear and dry conditions through Monday. Some clouds will roll in Mon night, or Tue AM at the latest, as the next system approaches from the west. Some showers and perhaps a few storms may pop up in the western half of the CWA Tue afternoon, but the better chance for precip will be Tue night and Wed as the front approaches and then passes through. Due to decent overall model agreement, did go above 50 on POPs, mainly in area around expected position of front. However, changes in the forecast timing of the front, to be expected this far out, could lead to changes in POPs. Weak surface ridging behind the front may allow for some clearing next Thu, but the upper trough will remain overhead, so at least some continuing fractured cloud cover is possible. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight into Friday. Conditions may drop to MVFR downeast late Friday as lower clouds move in. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions are expected across the region Friday night through early Saturday, with MVFR/IFR conditions later Saturday into Saturday night, though improving conditions are expected Downeast later Saturday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the region early Sunday, improving to VFR levels during the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas will continue to gradually subside tonight and winds diminish as high pressure builds over. Winds and seas should be below SCA on Friday. Humid air over the cooler waters may result in some fog reducing visibilities on Friday, especially late in the day. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level seas are expected later Friday night into Sunday. Visibilities will be reduced in fog Friday night into Saturday night. Rain will also occur Friday night into early Saturday, with a chance of showers later Saturday into Saturday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Hastings Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Bloomer/Hastings/Norcross Marine...Bloomer/Hastings/Norcross

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