Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210211 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 911 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the region tonight through early Tuesday then move east later Tuesday. An occluded front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 9:11 PM update...Latest observations and satellite pictures indicate a clear sky from the Saint John Valley to the Downeast coast as of 9 PM. The sky will remain clear, with the only exception some high cirrus possible toward morning in far western Maine. The wind is beginning to decouple in the broad NW valleys where the temperature has dropped to 5F at Estcourt Station. The low levels will continue to gradually decouple with strong surface based inversions to form overnight. Made some tweaks to the temperatures and wind based on the latest observations and expected conditions overnight, but overall the ongoing forecast is in fine shape. Previous discussion... High pressure will cross the region tonight through early Tuesday, then begin to move east later Tuesday. Skies will remain mostly clear across the forecast area tonight through early Tuesday. Clouds will then begin to increase from the west later Tuesday afternoon in advance of an approaching occluded front. Winds will decrease early tonight. Clear skies and light winds will allow for favorable radiational cooling conditions tonight. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from around zero to 15 below zero across northern areas, with readings from around zero to 10 above Bangor and Downeast. High temperatures Tuesday will range from around 30 to the lower 30s north, to the mid 30s Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An occluded front will approach the region from the west Tuesday night and move across the State Wednesday. This will result in some snow showers and showers then becoming partly cloudy later in the day. A weak area of low pressure will move across the north Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be warmer Thursday so expect this system to produce rain showers in the north Thursday into Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure is expected to build in from the northwest Thursday night and then move to the east Friday. Intense low pressure will move into the Great Lakes Friday night and then move to the west of New England during the day Saturday. This system is expected to result in snow developing across the area late Friday Night. The snow should then change to rain from south to north during the day Saturday as warmer air moves northward across the region. Rain may briefly change to snow before ending as snow showers Saturday night. Snow showers are possible as the low moves to the north of the region Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region overnight and Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Mostly MVFR Wed, with VFR conditions expected Thu. MVFR conditions are expected KFVE, KCAR, KPQI on Friday, otherwise expect VFR conditions. IFR conditions are expected Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The small craft advisory was allowed to expire for the intra-coastal waters at 9 PM, however, the small craft advisory remains in effect on the coastal waters through 4 AM EST Tuesday. The wind is now gusting to 25 knots at the Jonesport Buoy. Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels on the waters Tuesday as high pressure settles over the area. Light freezing spray is expected overnight through early Tuesday morning. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained wind speed. For waves: Expect southwesterly wind wave to dominate Wednesday and Thursday. Long period easterly swell (1-2 feet/10-12 seconds) will dominate Friday. A significant southerly fetch will then develop across the Gulf of Maine Saturday as intense low pressure moves to the west of the Waters. Southerly wind wave is expected to build to 10 feet/9-10 seconds by late Sunday. && .CLIMATE... So far this winter there have been a total of 79 days with a trace or more of snow at Caribou, and 55 days with measurable snowfall (0.1" or more). Season to date, it has been the greatest number of days with measurable snowfall since the winter of 1988-1989. The average temperature so far this meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) the average temperature at Caribou of 15.6F is 5.8F colder than last winter, but is 1.9F above the 30-year average (1981-2010). && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...CB/Norcross/Mignone Marine...CB/Norcross/Mignone Climate...CB

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