Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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064 FXUS61 KCAR 261000 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 600 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An occluded front will move east of the region this morning. An upper level trough will cross the area late this morning into early this afternoon. Weak high pressure builds into the area tonight. A cold front will slowly work across the state Wednesday night and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 6 AM Update...A few showers with brief heavy downpours in parts of eastern Aroostook County will move off into New Brunswick within the next 30 minutes. Once these showers exit is will be mainly dry through late morning before more showers and isolated storms develop. Areas of fog have formed across much of Downeast Maine, and some of the fog is locally dense in spots. Have issued a special weather statement for the fog. Expect that most of the fog will dissipate by 8 AM. The main update was to the Pops based on the latest radar and near term model trends. Previous discussion... An occluded front along the New Brunswick border at daybreak will move east of the region today. A mid level trough west of the Saint Lawrence River will move across northern Maine later this morning and the trough axis will exit into NB by around midday. The upper flow will then become quasi-zonal, but will begin to back into the wsw late tonight. Expect showers to re-develop as the trough axis moves into northern Maine this morning with strong July heating. Although the trough moves east of the CWA this afternoon, strong heating and residual low level moisture will team up to produce more showers into the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected, and with slight mid level cooling some small hail is possible. The best chance of showers and storms today will be to the north of the katahdin region with the activity more isolated to widely scattered along the coast. Weak high pres builds in from the west tonight with any showers ending early followed by a clear to p/cloudy sky. residual low level moisture and light/calm wind will likely lead to some patchy fog. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sfc ridge axis wl be present acrs CWA at the start of the short term pd. Cdfnt dropping thru Quebec wl appch the state Wed aftn fm the north and likely set up along the international brdr by 00z Thur. As it drops south, swrly winds wl be pumping in well abv normal temps and dwpts in the 60s. This may set the stage for addn`l storm dvlpmnt by aftn, mainly acrs the far north as it appears cntrl and Downeast sxns wl be capped by wrmr temps aloft. Sfc bndry wl slip into CWA Wed night with potential for sctd showers ahead of it. With loss of diurnal htg, not expecting any embedded thunder with bndry. As it crosses into cntrl zones Thur mrng, expect instability along the bndry aft 16z, thus hv added slgt chc thunder for Downeast zones with exception of coastal areas. Maxes on Thur acrs the north wl be closer to normal with highs in the u70s in wake of frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Front looks to mv offshore Fri morning with all med range guidance now showing low riding along frontal bndry well south of CWA Sat/Sat night, depending on model. May see isold showers affecting srn zones Fri night as it does so. Models cont to show significant discrepancies in regard to weekend fcst with 00z GFS/GEM building sfc high ovr New England whereas EC brings wv thru the state. Hv gone with Superblend due to unsettled wx pattern and H5 trof axis present acrs the northeast with 20-30 pops expected at any point thru the weekend. No one day looks to be a washout at this point but potential for sctd showers exists each aftn. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR-IFR in low clouds and areas of fog early this morning will give way to VFR at all terminals by 15Z. Brief MVFR possible this afternoon in showers and isolated thunderstorms. VFR this evening, with IFR possible in patchy fog late this evening and overnight, but outside of any fog it will remain VFR. SHORT TERM: VFR expected through the end of the week. Shra/-tsra may bring localized MVFR restrictions at times across the north on Wed and southern terminals Thur afternoon. IFR restrictions possible at BHB in fog Thur morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. The visibility will be poor at times in areas of fog early this morning. SHORT TERM: Wind and seas below SCA through the end of the week. Poor visibility is expected Thur morning over the waters. && .CLIMATE... As of midnight a total of 5.15 inches of rain has been observed so far this July at Caribou. 77 hundredths of an inch is needed the remainder of the month to move into the top 10 wettest Julys on record. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...CB/Farrar Marine...CB/Farrar Climate...CB

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