Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 261000
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016
An occluded front will move east of the region this morning.
An upper level trough will cross the area late this morning into
early this afternoon. Weak high pressure builds into the area
tonight. A cold front will slowly work across the state Wednesday
night and Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM Update...A few showers with brief heavy downpours in parts
of eastern Aroostook County will move off into New Brunswick
within the next 30 minutes. Once these showers exit is will be
mainly dry through late morning before more showers and isolated
storms develop. Areas of fog have formed across much of Downeast
Maine, and some of the fog is locally dense in spots. Have issued
a special weather statement for the fog. Expect that most of the
fog will dissipate by 8 AM. The main update was to the Pops
based on the latest radar and near term model trends.
An occluded front along the New Brunswick border at daybreak will
move east of the region today. A mid level trough west of the
Saint Lawrence River will move across northern Maine later this
morning and the trough axis will exit into NB by around midday.
The upper flow will then become quasi-zonal, but will begin to
back into the wsw late tonight. Expect showers to re-develop as
the trough axis moves into northern Maine this morning with
strong July heating. Although the trough moves east of the CWA
this afternoon, strong heating and residual low level moisture
will team up to produce more showers into the afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms are also expected, and with slight mid level
cooling some small hail is possible. The best chance of showers
and storms today will be to the north of the katahdin region with
the activity more isolated to widely scattered along the coast.
Weak high pres builds in from the west tonight with any showers
ending early followed by a clear to p/cloudy sky. residual low
level moisture and light/calm wind will likely lead to some
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc ridge axis wl be present acrs CWA at the start of the short term
pd. Cdfnt dropping thru Quebec wl appch the state Wed aftn fm the
north and likely set up along the international brdr by 00z Thur. As
it drops south, swrly winds wl be pumping in well abv normal temps
and dwpts in the 60s. This may set the stage for addn`l storm
dvlpmnt by aftn, mainly acrs the far north as it appears cntrl and
Downeast sxns wl be capped by wrmr temps aloft.
Sfc bndry wl slip into CWA Wed night with potential for sctd showers
ahead of it. With loss of diurnal htg, not expecting any embedded
thunder with bndry. As it crosses into cntrl zones Thur mrng, expect
instability along the bndry aft 16z, thus hv added slgt chc thunder
for Downeast zones with exception of coastal areas. Maxes on Thur
acrs the north wl be closer to normal with highs in the u70s in
wake of frontal passage.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Front looks to mv offshore Fri morning with all med range guidance
now showing low riding along frontal bndry well south of CWA Sat/Sat
night, depending on model. May see isold showers affecting srn zones
Fri night as it does so. Models cont to show significant
discrepancies in regard to weekend fcst with 00z GFS/GEM building
sfc high ovr New England whereas EC brings wv thru the state. Hv
gone with Superblend due to unsettled wx pattern and H5 trof axis
present acrs the northeast with 20-30 pops expected at any point
thru the weekend. No one day looks to be a washout at this point
but potential for sctd showers exists each aftn.
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR-IFR in low clouds and areas of fog early this
morning will give way to VFR at all terminals by 15Z. Brief MVFR
possible this afternoon in showers and isolated thunderstorms. VFR
this evening, with IFR possible in patchy fog late this evening
and overnight, but outside of any fog it will remain VFR.
SHORT TERM: VFR expected through the end of the week. Shra/-tsra
may bring localized MVFR restrictions at times across the north on
Wed and southern terminals Thur afternoon. IFR restrictions
possible at BHB in fog Thur morning.
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through tonight. The visibility will be poor at times in
areas of fog early this morning.
SHORT TERM: Wind and seas below SCA through the end of the week.
Poor visibility is expected Thur morning over the waters.
As of midnight a total of 5.15 inches of rain has been observed
so far this July at Caribou. 77 hundredths of an inch is needed
the remainder of the month to move into the top 10 wettest Julys