Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201944 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 344 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will slowly move east of the region overnight and Tuesday. An arctic cold front from central Canada will approach the region Tuesday night and cross the region by midday Wednesday as low pressure begins to develop over the Gulf of Maine. Following the exit of both the front and low through the Canadian Maritimes...strong high pressure will build across the region Wednesday night and Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Tonight will begin fair, but a weak lead s/wv will bring increasing cldnss and possible flurries late tngt into erly Tue morn spcly for Nrn ptns of the region. This system will move E of the Region late morn Tue, allowing for a pd of ptly sunny conditions midday thru Tue aftn. Low temps tngt will be milder due to increasing cld cvr later tngt, with hi temps Tue not much different than this aftn. Meanwhile, another unseasonably deep resident arctic air mass from Nrn Can with max arctic indices of lower to mid 70s will begin advancing in our direction, with the cold front and supporting s/wv alf reaching into Wrn QB by erly Tue eve.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure will move across the region Tuesday Night then intensify rapidly to the east of the state Wednesday as it moves away to the northeast. This system will cause light snow to move into western areas early in the evening then spread eastward across the remainder of the area by Wednesday Morning. The snow will then move out of the region by Wednesday Evening. Greatest amounts of snow will be across northern areas due to the track of the low. Have used snow ratio from thickness values for snow amounts. Strong high pressure will move in from the west Wednesday Night and Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Long term starts off dry Thurs night as a sfc ridge crosses the CWA and an upr ridge starts to move in from the west. A cold front will approach from the NW across Quebec during the day Fri, then push through the state Fri night. The GFS and ECMWF have roughly similar timing on this front, though the ECMWF would give us almost no precip. The CMC is a bit slower on the front, but has a much deeper/sharper upr trof associated with the front. Generally kept POPs under 50 percent for now, given the uncertainty on timing and moisture availability. The CMC, with the stronger upr lvl trough blasts the front well south of New Eng on Sun. The GFS and ECMWF both stall the front just south of New Eng Sat into Sun, then nudge the front and precip shield back north Sun night into Mon. Either way, once the precip clears out later Sat, it looks like Sun and Mon will be dry for northern and eastern Maine as high pres extends into the CWA from the NW, but exactly where the front may or may not stall will need to be monitored.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are xpctd tngt thru Tue, with a pd of low VFR clgs and perhaps brief MVFR vsbys possible with flurries erly to mid Tue morn across far Nrn TAF sites. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions to give way to IFR conditions late Tuesday Night. IFR conditions expected to persist through the day Wednesday. VFR conditions expected late Wednesday Night through Thursday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and wvs have subsided enough to lower the SCA for the inner bay/harbor MZ, but remain in place ovr the outer MZs for a few more hrs. Aftwrds by mid eve, at least winds will lower below SCA ovr the outer MZs, with marginal SCA seas still possible ovr outer most waters. later ovrngt into Tue. SHORT TERM: Have used a blend of the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF for sustained winds then transition to the Super Blend Winds late Thursday. For waves: Long period swell (1 foot/10 seconds) is expected to predominate Tuesday Night under light winds. A strong off-shore fetch then develops Wed ngt and Thu with wave heights a function of distance off-shore. Wave heights are expected to subside Thursday Night as winds diminish. A southwesterly fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf of Maine Friday. Will use the Near Shore Prediction System through Thursday then Transition to the Wave Watch III winds.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050- 051.
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&& $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...VJN/Mignone Marine...VJN/Mignone

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