Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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040 FXUS61 KCAR 250352 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1052 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the area through tonight. A frontal system will move through the region later Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will then build back in through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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1050 PM Update... Satl IR imagery showed high clouds streaming e across VT/NH and headed toward ME. Adjusted the sky conditions to show high clouds moving in overnight. NW winds were still up 10 to 15 mph across the northern areas helping to keep temps up. Given the latest obs and trends, decided to bring overnight mins up a few degrees as temps were warmer by at least 3 degrees from the previous forecast. Still expecting the sites back across NW Maine to drop below 0F mainly in the low lying sites. The rest of the region in the single numbers and lower teens due to some mixing of the llvls w/winds staying up a bit longer. The latest RAP matched up well w/this setup. Previous Discussion... 1026mb sfc high sitting just north of Ottawa Ontario wl continue building east drg the ovrngt hrs. This wl allow clds to dissipate this evng with loss of diurnal htg and with winds bcmg near calm radn`l cooling wl allow temps to drop blo 0F acrs cldr vly locations in the North Woods. Min ovr nrn Aroostook wl appch zero in notoriously colder locales. S/wv mvg thru OH valley this aftn and bringing rain to portions of the northeast wl skirt well south of CWA as high blocks nwrd mvmnt. Next system on tap to spread pcpn into the region is currently spinning acrs the nrn Plains. High cirrus wl begin to appch swrn sxns twd daybreak with winds veering around to serly direction in advance of sfc bndry. Overrunning pcpn lkly to start by mid-mrng Sun and spread north and east fm there thru the aftn hrs. As pcpn begins entire airmass wl be blo 0C with ice in the cld. As the aftn progresses into evng, expect that dendrite lyr wl lose moisture leaving drizzle/freezing drizzle in its wake twd the late aftn hrs. Snow drg the aftn looks to be fm 1-3 inches bfr cld loses ice and turns to more of a drizzle scenario. Wl allow later shifts to refine timing of frzg drizzle and issue winter weather advisory for tomorrow afternoon/evening. Expect that high temps on Sun wl top out right around normal for this time of year.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Snow will be ending early Sunday evening and remaining precipitation will transition to freezing drizzle with less a tenth an inch of ice accumulation. The decaying warm occlusion will allow cold air damming to persist through the night. With a good supply of low level moisture...and none of it at levels colder than -10C...freezing drizzle seems like the most likely outcome. The exception will be towards the coast where temperatures will be above freezing on Sunday night. No diurnal curves were necessary for Sunday night temperatures as readings will tend to rise overnight. The freezing precipitation may prompt advisories rather than the modest snowfall from this system. On Monday morning, a drying southwest wind will scour the frontal inversion and high pressure will build eastward from the Ohio River Valley region. Cold air advection aloft will prompt gusty winds and cumulus development by afternoon with isolated snow showers possible. After the relatively mild lows Monday morning, temperatures will rise into the 40s for most of the area by early Monday afternoon. Moisture will refreeze Monday night as temperatures fall into the 20s, but the air mass is not particularly cold and highs will return to the upper 30s and 40s on Tuesday. More gusty NW winds and cumulus development are anticipated by Tuesday afternoon. The high pressure ridge will crest over the area later Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak clipper system will affect the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time, will go with no more than slight chance pops and mostly cloudy skies. It`s a small-scale system with little moisture and little model consensus. The relatively mild pattern will continue as a zonal pattern transitions to a blocking pattern dominated by a large upper level high retrograding from the north Atlantic into eastern Canada. This high will cause a moist and mild flow of maritime air into the area by later in the week. The high looks like it could suppress a vertically stacked low pressure system to the south of the forecast area later in the week. However, in dealing with the evolution of a cut-off low at nearly 144 hours out, it`s certainly possible it could drift further north into the area. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours as low VFR cigs dissipate with building high pressure around 00z. Next system affect BGR and BHB very late in the TAF period with a return of VFR cigs after 16z. NW winds gust to near 16-20kts this afternoon bfr diminishing this evening. SHORT TERM: IFR cigs and vis are expected Sunday night with snow changing to freezing drizzle. VFR conditions return for all terminals on Monday into Thursday. There is a chance of IFR vis in snow north of HUL Tuesday night. Chances for widespread MVFR cigs increase towards Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will increase to aoa 25kts after 06z tonight for the outer waters and for the intracoastal zones twd 12z thus an SCA has been issued thru the day Sunday. Winds may approach gale conditions late in the afternoon for a brief period of time. Seas will build late in the afternoon in serly swell. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions will continue Sunday evening and end later in the night. The next marine threat will occur towards Friday into Saturday when a gale is possible. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ050-051.
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