Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261747 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 147 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across the Gulf of Maine today then continue east, south of Nova Scotia tonight. High pressure will build across the area on Saturday then slide south of the region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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2:45 PM Update: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point based on latest observations. No other changes. Low pressure tracking from southern New England into the Gulf of Maine will continue to produce rain across the area through midday today. As of early this morning spotty rain has spread across most of our area but a more solid, organized band of heavier rain closer to the storm center could be seen lifting north into southern Maine. The HRRR model shows this solid band of rain lifting north across our region through the morning. Most of the rain today is expected across central and Downeast areas but the northern edge of the substantial rain, giving a half inch or more, looks like it will be a bit further north than previous forecasts reaching central Aroostook county. Further south, closer to an inch of rain is expected. The area of rain should begin receding to the south and east later this afternoon as the low center tracks toward western Nova Scotia. Rain will taper off across the rest of the area this evening as the low center accelerates east, south of Nova Scotia. High pressure pushing down from the north will bring some clearing down from the north late tonight. By dawn, northern areas should be mostly clear with skies remaining partly to mostly cloudy Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rather quiet through the weekend w/some scattered showers possible on Sunday. High pres is expected to slide into teh region on Saturday w/some sunshine expected and comfortable temperatures. Daytime temps are forecast to be in the 60s throughout the CWA. Some sites across the western areas could hit 70F due to more sunshine. An upper level disturbance is shown by the ECMWF and GFS to move across the region Saturday night w/some clouds and that is about it. The GFS and ECMWF show a frontal boundary setting up across the region during the day on Sunday. Both are showing the potential for some shower activity. The 00z run of the Canadian Global is in line w/the ECMWF and GFS. There does appear to be some llvl convergence w/some weak mid level forcing as noted by the GFS. Northern and western areas to be affected by this activity will be northern and western areas. Decided to add 20-30% pops to account for this setup. Rainfall amounts will be light at < 0.05" inches. Also, the GFS sounding data does hint at some weak instability to be available in the afternoon. Low and mid level lapse rates are ok w/values around 6.0 c/km to support some updraft potential. Moisture also looks like it will be available. 0-6km shear is not too impressive w/values < 20 kts. Therefore attm, decided to leave out the mention of tstms. The daycrew can assess this potential further today. Temps on Sunday are forecast to hit well into the 60s and lower 70s away from the coastal areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled weather looks to be in store for next week. A large low pres system over central Canada is forecast to become vertically stacked which will lead to a slow eastward movement through mid week. A series of disturbances are expected to lift across the region bringing showers to the region. Long range models are offering some differences in timing especially for Memorial Day. The GFS keeps shower activity at bay until late in the day while the ECMWF is faster in bringing a steady rain to the region w/a low pres wave moving across the southern part of the Gulf of Maine. The Canadian Global appears to be closer to the ECMWF w/a steady rain arriving by early afternoon. Decided on a blend and kept 50% pops for Monday into Monday night. There appears to be a brief break in the action early Tuesday w/high pres wedging down from the n. This looks to be short lived however as another disturbance is shown by the long range guidance to bring more showers to the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Wednesday could feature some thunderstorm activity as the airmass destabilizes w/a cold front is forecast to slide across the region. Since the confidence is low attm, decided to keep thunderstorms out of forecast for Wednesday. Daytime temps are forecast to be in the 60s across much of the region during the period w/overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds and rain are expected today into this evening. Conditions should improve to MVFR then VFR across the north tonight, and improve to MVFR Downeast overnight. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to become VFR across all the terminals on Saturday and hold this way into Sunday. MVFR expected Sunday night for all terminals with conditions dropping to IFR for KBGR and KBHB on Monday. MVFR looks like it could hold for the northern terminals(KHUL to KFVE) while the northern terminals see MVFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA will remain up today for east winds gusting up to 30 kt. Winds are expected to diminish below SCA tonight as low pressure moves away to the east. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions for Hazardous Seas for early Saturday and then conditions are expected to improve Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Winds are forecast to drop to 10 kts w/seas subsiding to 3-4 ft. These conditions look like they will hold right into Memorial Day. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.
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