Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170711 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 311 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND PROGRESS TOWARDS HOULTON BY MIDDAY BEFORE STALLING AND LIFTING BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING BUT WILL SPREAD A LOT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ZONES ALL DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE SUNSHINE ALLOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST ZONES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BREAK OUT IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH...WILL LIMIT POPS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AS LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED. THE RAIN FOR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH AN INCH ARE FORECAST...MOSTLY FOR THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE SEASON`S COLDEST AIR TO DATE. ELSEWHERE...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE APRIL WILL DESCEND UPON NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE ST JOHN RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO TOPSFIELD. A WIDESPREAD FROST AND/OR FREEZE WILL OCCUR.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MAINE NEXT MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FROM HUL TO BGR/BHB WILL BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE IN FVE THIS MORNING AND MOVE SOUTH TO CAR/PQI BY MID-MORNING. THIS CIGS WILL LIFT TOWARDS MIDDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO FVE TONIGHT AND IFR RETURNS TO BHB/BGR LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FROM EDOUARD. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...MCW/OKULSKI MARINE...MCW/OKULSKI

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