Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 011939 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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OUR DRY STREAK IS ABOUT TO COME TO AN END AS SOME RAIN IS FINALLY ON THE WAY FOR NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION IS STILL VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEW POINTS DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES, SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE CAR CWA. HOWEVER, THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE FA LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS, IN THE VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROF. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WORK WEEK WILL START OFF UNSETTLED AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS TO OUR SOUTH AND A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, AND FROM ONE-THIRD TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL COME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS COMBINE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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S/WV CURRENTLY MVG THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS WL GET SHEARED OUT TONIGHT, HEADING TWD NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN DVLPMNT OF WK LOPRES ACRS THE GULF OF MAINE MON NGT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN OCCURRING OVR ALL OF CWA MON EVNG. SYSTEM WL BE A QUICK MVR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS AFT 06Z AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. ENUF COLD AIR MAY FILTER INTO EXTRM NW ZONES TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD AIR IS NOT VRY DEEP AND WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SEE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF ACCUMS ACRS FAR NW AROOSTOOK CNTY. MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FM JUST ABV FREEZING IN THE NORTH WOODS TO ARND 40F ALONG THE COAST FOR TUE MRNG LOWS. SYSTEM ZIPS INTO ERN CANADA TUE MRNG WITH PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE NORTH BUT NOTHING THAT WUD PRODUCE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPS ON TUE WL CLIMB TO JUST BLO NORMAL FOR MAXES AS H9 TEMPS RISE AROUND 2-3C FM PREVIOUS DAY. STRONG S/WV DIGS INTO UPR MIDWEST TWD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF OVR THE OH VLY AT THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM. THIS WL ALLOW HIGH TO RMN OVR CWA THRU WED THO SKIES WL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLDS DRG THE AFTN FM THE WEST. SOME DISCREPANCIES IN LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE AFT 12Z WED, WITH CMC, EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM ALL INDICATE A LOW RIDING UP ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES A VRY WK TROF ALONG THE COAST BUT NO REAL ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW BACK ACRS NY STATE. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT BTWN BOTH SOLNS THO OPERATIONAL MEAN INDICATES LOW ACRS NY STATE AS WELL. FOR NOW HV SIDED WITH NAM, CMC AND EC WITH CHC POPS MVG IN FM THE SOUTHWEST AFT 21Z. MAXES ON WED WL CLIMB TO NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S ACRS THE NORTH TO ARND 60F DOWNEAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE LONG TERM REMAINS RATHER MESSY AS A LIKELY CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE ERN US IS LEADING TO SOME VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS DEPENDING ON WHEN ONE EXPECTS THE LOW TO GET RE-ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN PATTERN. WED NIGHT INTO THURS WILL SEE THE CUT-OFF DIVE FROM THE GR LKS INTO THE MID-ATL, WHILE A LOW RIDES UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPR TROF AND BRINGS SOME SHWRS TO MAINE. WEAK RIDGE MAY HELP KEEP RAIN CHCS LOWER FRI AND SAT, BUT CAN`T RULE THE CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTING SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD OUR COASTAL AREAS. UPR TROF CROSSING QUEBEC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULDN`T DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA, THOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME PSBL LIGHT SHWRS. THE CMC HAS THE CUT-OFF MOVING NORTH TOWARD THIS TROF ON SAT AND BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE STATE, BUT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT THIS FIRST UPR TROF WILL DIG VERY DEEP, THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT STRONGLY CONSIDERED. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON A SECOND DIGGING TROF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT BEING MUCH DEEPER, WITH THE BASE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GR LKS AND SRN NEW ENG. THIS WUD ALMOST CERTAINLY DRAW THE CUT-OFF BACK NORTH. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS, BUT BETWEEN THE CLD FRNT ADVANCING FROM THE WEST AND THE CUT-OFF MOVING BACK NORTH, WUD EXPECT POPS TO INCR SUN INTO MON AND THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM. CURRENTLY HAVE TEMPS IN GOOD COLLAB WITH GYX, SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THRU SUN, WITH NEAR NRML TEMPS BCMG A BIT ABOVE NRML LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HWVR, THIS COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE WX PATTERN.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED ON MON NGT AS STRATIFORM RAIN OVERSPREADS ALL TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF -RASN AT FVE WITH AN IFR RESTRICTION EARLY TUE MRNG BUT NORTHERN TERMINALS WL RMN MOSTLY MVFR IN RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REDUCED TO IFR IN BR/FG. RESTRICTIONS WL PERSIST THRU WED MRNG DOWN SOUTH, PARTICULARLY BHB, WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS BECOMING VFR BY AFTN. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR LATE WED NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT. SEAS COULD BEGIN TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AS WAVES INCREASE IN SERLY SWELL THRU TUE MRNG. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WED NGT.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, A WETTING RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY FOR LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR FIRE WEATHER...DUDA

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