Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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657 FXUS61 KCAR 191632 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1232 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today and tonight. The high will move east on Thursday. Low pressure approaching from the west will bring the chance of rain Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update...Increased clouds towards northern Aroostook for today and lowered hi temps a degree or two in the north. Added patchy fog late tonight as well as frost. Lowered tonight`s lows in the next update for many locations with a very shallow inversion likely. Guidance usually does poorly with such shallow inversions in the fall. No frost advisories will be issued as the frost/freeze program has ended for this season in our forecast area. previous discussion Cold front currently crossing the fa early this morning will push east of the coast by daybreak. Low clouds and patchy fog early this morning will give way to increasing sunshine and unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures for this time of year. Highs will range from around 60 degrees across the St. John Valley to around 70 degrees across downeast. High pressure will build east tonight with mainly clear skies and light winds. Low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s across the north and lower 40s downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper low just west of James Bay Thursday is expected to have a trough extending south into the central U.S. The upper trough will move east and into the Great lakes and Ohio Valley Friday. At the surface, a ridge across Maine Thursday morning moves east during the day and into the Canadian Maritimes as broad low pressure develops from central NY State southwest into West Virginia. The low will deepen and track northeast Thu night into western New England. A secondary low is expected to develop off the Mid Atlantic Coast Fri morning, and this secondary low is expected to track toward the Gulf of Maine Friday. Clouds will increase Thursday with rain to likely develop later in the day across the northern half of the CWA. Periods of rain and drizzle are expected across the region Thu night and Fri. Precipitable H20 values are expected to increase to around 1.5", and some heavier downpours of rain are possible, especially later Friday afternoon as some tropical moisture may get entrained into the region from a potential tropical or sub-tropical system off the southeast U.S. coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure in the Gulf of Maine Fri evening is expected to deepen and lift north of the state Fri night. This will cause a strong cold front to move across the area later fri night into Sat morning. Again, there maybe some tropical moisture ahead of the front that could lead to some heavier pockets of rain. The models do differ on the placement of the heavier rain Fri night. A much colder air mass follows for the weekend and into the first half of next week as an amplified pattern develops with an upper trough in New England and an upstream ridge across the central U.S. Temperatures will be colder than average Sun through Tue with the chance for a few showers. It will likely be cold enough for a few snow showers across northern Maine. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Sub vfr conditions early this morning will give way to VFR at all terminals after 12z. VFR conditions will then persist through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR to start the day Thu will likely give way to MVFR at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE as rain overspreads the region. IFR expected to develop at the terminals Thu night into Fri in rain and fog. Conditions will likely improve to MVFR by Sat morning, and possibly to VFR at the Down East terminals. Predominately MVFR over the weekend at the northern terminals and VFR with pockets of MVFR at the Down East terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect thru 8 am, winds/seas will then decrease below small craft advisory levels and remain so through tonight. SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory will likely be needed by Fri night ahead of a strong cold front. Seas will likely build to 6 to 9 feet on the coastal waters. Small craft advisory conditions will likely persist through the weekend in the cold air advection behind low pressure that will lift north of the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...None.
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