Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191612 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1112 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move to the east on today. A frontal boundary will form across the region tonight into Tuesday as warm high pressure remains to our southeast and cold high pressure builds to our north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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11:15 AM Update...Sky cover was modified to make central and western areas mostly sunny with Downeast and far northern areas partly to mostly cloudy. Also, midday temps were raised as the inversion is breaking and low levels are quickly warming. Previous discussion... High pressure off the New England coast early this morning will retreat east today with a milder southwest return flow. Clouds in the north will give way to a partly sunny sky by midday with an increase in clouds Downeast this afternoon. Highs will range from the mid to upper 30s north to low to mid 40s in the Greater Bangor Region and along the coast. Moisture will stream into the region from the southwest tonight with some showers and drizzle along with patchy fog. A cold front in Quebec will sink ab out as far south as Caribou and Clayton lake with some hints of colder air damming in the far north and west. This will likely lead to the potential of some snow, sleet, or freezing rain in the far north and perhaps as far south as the central highlands. The precipitation looks light and spotty, but can`t rule out that a special weather statement or advisory might not eventually be needed for a time late tonight in the far north and into the central highlands.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The model guidance is in good agreement through the short term period of the forecast. A warm front will be extended across the region, it associated low over Lake Michigan. A high pressure ridge in place over Quebec will slow the forward progression of the warm front. The low will track northeast into Quebec Wednesday morning, then into eastern Quebec by Wednesday evening. The cold front will move into north and western Maine Wednesday morning then into the Gulf of Maine by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool add to winds 20% over land, 26% for the coastal waters. Used HPC Guidance for QPF. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended models are in good agreement at the start of the period. High pressure will dominate the weather through Friday afternoon. A warm front will move into western Maine Friday evening, clearing the area early Saturday morning. Another Low and associated frontal system will move into Maine Sunday evening, the surface low will track through northern Maine Monday morning, the upper level low will remain over the state through the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool add to winds 20% over land, 26% for the coastal waters. Used HPC Guidance for QPF. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR today with conditions to lower to IFR tonight in showers, drizzle, and patchy fog. A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain expected at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE. Amounts are expected to be light, but icing will be a concern. SHORT TERM: IFR to LMVFR conditions through Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday evening the cold front will sweep into the Gulf of Maine and higher pressure will build into the area. Clearing skies Wednesday evening. Clear to partly cloudy conditions Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon. Another frontal system will move into Friday evening, conditions falling to IFR around midnight Friday night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect from late this morning through tonight as southwest flow increases. SHORT TERM: A Small Craft Advisory may be required Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for winds and seas above criteria as a cold front moves through the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... High temperatures Wednesday will be near 60 degrees in Bangor with 45 to 50 degree highs all the way north to the Saint John Valley. Snow melt will likely lead to ponding of water. Some ice movement is possible, mainly in the Penobscot Basin. && .CLIMATE... N. Amer. Arctic Potential and Impact over Nrn and Ern ME... It`s interesting to note that tdy is the last day of ami values near 100 (pristine arctic air mass rating) ovr far Nrn Manitoba prov Can with respective NAai and NDAai values of 40%/30%, with the areal cvrg and core values of this air mass xpctd to modify as it lifts ene into Nrn QB and then off the Nrn Labrador coast ovr the next 1-2 days. Overall NAT values will cont arnd +0.5 durg this tm then begin to gradually modify to negative values by next week. Although the overall initial NAT value is around +0.5, substantial differences exist between NATw and NATe index (indices derived from source rgn sectorized AO and ptns of the TNH and EP-NP teleconnection patterns, respectfully) with NATw around +2 and NATe -1 both accompanying a strong PNA- pattern. Overall modification of arctic residency ovr Nrn N. Amer. by next week will occur as TNH and AO/NAO all chg signs from positive to negative and PNA becomes more neutral, resulting in long fetch mid-trop Erly anomalous flow from the far N Atlc to overtake much of the NAe and even ern ptns of the NAw source Rgns. The ovrall affect for Nrn/Ern ME will be after several rn...mixed precip and sn events this week, drier conditions may arrive by next week with any arctic air mass intrusions of only low to mdt residence and relatively brief occurrences (http:/www.weather.gov/media/car/recommendations.pdf and http:/www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/41CDPW/41cdpw- VNouhan.pdf). Record high temperatures are possible Wednesday, 2/21. The record highs are as follows, with forecast highs in parenthesis: Bangor: 60F, 1937 (60F) Millinocket: 62F, 1994 (56F) Houlton: 50F, 1953 (54F) Caribou: 50F, 1994 946f) && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCB Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...CB/Norton Marine...CB/Norton Hydrology... Climate...CB

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