Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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890 FXUS61 KCAR 200408 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1208 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An occluded front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will build south of the region Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will track northwest of the region Tuesday through early Wednesday drawing a cold front across the region Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12:09 AM Update...Low clouds blanket the CWA early this morning along with patchy fog and drizzle. Area radars show scattered showers moving across the region to the north of Bangor as a frontal system works across the area. Updated the hourly forecast elements overnight based on the latest observations, radar trends, and near term model trends. Noted that much of the guidance now has some showers across northern areas into Sunday afternoon, so will examine this closely and may have to extend the chance of showers for a few hours later into the day. .Previous discussion. Low stratus remains across the area and will bring a mostly cloudy night tonight as a weak occlusion moves through. Some spotty showers are possible with the occlusion, mainly over central and northern areas. Otherwise, skies will just remain mostly cloudy. Patchy fog may form in the moist air overnight. However, toward morning the gradient will become westerly behind the occlusion and this should be enough to mix out the fog early in the morning. Skies will then become partly cloudy across the north on Sunday and mostly sunny Downeast with a warm and humid airmass in place. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will build south of the area Sunday night through Monday night. Expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies north with mostly clear skies Downeast Sunday night. Mostly sunny skies will occur across the entire region Monday morning. A cold front will be crossing Quebec province Monday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms in advance of the front. Skies will become partly sunny across northern areas Monday afternoon with the slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm late across northwest areas. Skies will remain mostly sunny across central and Downeast areas Monday afternoon. The cold front will approach northern Maine later Monday night. The remnants of convection to the west could bring a chance of showers to northern areas early Monday night, with a chance of showers late in advance of the approaching cold front. Otherwise, expect increasing clouds across northern and central areas Monday night with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies Downeast. The front stalls in the vicinity of northern Maine Tuesday while low pressure tracks northeast from the Great Lakes across Quebec province. However, exactly where the front stalls is still uncertain. The front and approaching low will help focus increasing shower and thunderstorm chances across northern areas Tuesday afternoon. Across central and Downeast areas expect generally partly sunny skies Tuesday with a chance of mostly afternoon showers and thunderstorms inland from the coast. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Monday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected across northern areas Tuesday with above normal level temperatures Downeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low will track northwest of, or across, northern Maine Tuesday night through early Wednesday drawing the stalled frontal boundary back north in the form of a warm front. Showers/thunderstorms, most numerous across northern areas, will occur across the region Tuesday night. The low will draw a cold front across the region Wednesday with showers/thunderstorms in advance of the front. The front exits across the maritimes Wednesday night. An upper level trof approaches from the west Thursday with a disturbance possibly lifting across the region in advance of the front. Will have a slight chance of diurnal showers across mostly the north and mountains Thursday. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies north with partly/mostly sunny skies Downeast Thursday. The upper trof remains across the region Friday/Saturday while several disturbances rotate through the trof. Surface high pressure builds toward the region later Saturday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across the region Friday/Saturday though will also keep the slight chance of diurnal showers across mostly the north and mountains. Near normal level temperatures are expected Wednesday. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR and at times LIFR conditions in low clouds are expected overnight. Conditions should improve to MVFR then VFR Sunday morning as low clouds clear following a frontal passage. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region Sunday night/Monday. Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across northern areas Monday night, with VFR conditions across the rest of the region. MVFR/IFR conditions will develop across northern areas Tuesday, with occasional MVFR conditions possible Downeast with developing showers/thunderstorms. MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the entire region Tuesday night into Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA overnight and Sunday although a few wind gusts out of the west may approach 25 kt over the offshore waters on Sunday. Fog will limit visibilities on the waters tonight. Visibilities should improve on Sunday. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday night through Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norton Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...CB/Norton/Norcross Marine...CB/Norton/Norcross

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