Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 121435
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
935 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2017
Low pressure will track across northern Maine Today. A cold
front will cross the region tonight through early Friday. High
pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --930 AM update...One batch of rain is currently crossing the
region and should move into New Brunswick by 11 am. Expect we`ll
be a brief break from the rain for a few hours thereafter, until
the low actually moves across northern Maine later this afternoon.
Have made some adjustments to pops to match this thinking, using a
blend of the near-term high res models. Otherwise, the only other
adjustments made were to temps and dewpoints to bring in the
latest obs. Note that there are one or two sheltered locations in
the Central Highlands that are right around freezing, so can`t
rule out some highly localized patches of freezing rain over the
next hour or two. Little to no ice accumulation is expected.
Low pressure will track northeast across northern Maine later
today through early tonight. Precipitation today through early
tonight will be mostly in the form of rain across the forecast
area. However, isolated pockets of brief freezing rain are
possible across mostly valley locations across northwest portions
of the forecast area early this morning. Little or no ice
accumulation is expected. Will also have areas of fog across the
region today through early tonight. The low will exit across the
maritimes later tonight. The exiting low will begin to draw a cold
front across the forecast area later tonight. Steady precipitation
early tonight will taper to showers before ending across most of
the forecast area overnight. However, a chance of snow showers
will persist across the north and mountains later tonight in the
wake of the cold front. High temperatures today will range from
around 40 to the lower 40s north, to the mid 40s Bangor and
interior Downeast with upper 40s along the Downeast coast. Low
temperatures tonight will range through the 20s across northern
areas, with lower 30s Bangor and interior Downeast with mid 30s
along the Downeast coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Intense low pressure is expected to move to the north of the
region. This system will produce a strong pressure gradient
resulting in strong northwest winds during the day Friday along
with cold advection. Strong high pressure will build in from the
west Friday night but winds will be slow to diminish until after
day break Saturday. The high will crest over the state Saturday
then move to the east.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will approach from the west Saturday night and cross
the state Sunday with high pressure building in from the west
behind the cold front. The high will then cross the region Monday
then move east into the Atlantic. A warm front will approach from
the southwest Tuesday. Snow is expected to develop ahead of the
warm front Wednesday. The snow may change to rain Wednesday night.
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR, with occasional VLIFR, conditions are
expected Bangor and Downeast this morning, with MVFR/IFR
conditions developing across central and northern areas. IFR/LIFR
conditions are then expected across the entire region this
afternoon into tonight with rain and areas of fog. Occasional
MVFR conditions will then persist across the region overnight. Low
level wind shear is also a concern across northern areas this
morning and across Bangor and Downeast areas this morning into the
afternoon. Generally expect precipitation in the form of rain.
However, isolated pockets of light freezing rain are possible
across mostly valley locations of northwest portions of the region
early this morning with little or no ice accumulation.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Friday through Monday.
Gusty west to northwest winds up to around 35 mph are also
expected across the region Friday.
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters
today through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and
patchy fog today through early tonight.
SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS20 for sustained winds through
Saturday then transition to the Super Blend winds. For Waves: Off
shore wind wave is expected to be primary wave system Friday with
a secondary southerly longer period swell group. The wind wave is
then expected to subside later in the day along with the southerly
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.