Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 151100 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 600 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the west today then redevelop south of the Gulf of Maine on tonight. The low will then move along the southern Nova Scotia coast Thursday and across the eastern Maritimes Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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update... High and mid cloud continues to advance across the region early this morning in advance of low pressure approaching from the west. MMRS reflectivity data shows some light returns starting to make it into extreme western Maine. Temperatures early this morning have fallen into the teens below zero along the Maine/QB border. 06z nam and gfs continue to support the best chances of snow tonight across downeast Maine in association with developing secondary low. Have made only minor tweaks to temperatures and dew points based on latest observations with rest of forecast still looking okay this morning. previous discussion Low pressure approaching from the great lakes region will re- develop in the vicinity of the gulf of a Maine later today. The consensus of model guidance now takes the low across the southwest tip of Nova Scotia by 12z Thursday. The low is then expected to track north through the Canadian maritimes on Thursday afternoon. Expect snow associated with the approaching low from the west to overspread western areas this morning and then continue into this afternoon. Snow is expected to increase across downeast areas later this afternoon and continue overnight as the low re- develops across the gulf of Maine and tracks northeast late tonight, with heaviest snows expected later tonight through Thursday morning. As the low intensifies, gusty northeast winds will develop with some blowing and drifting snow expected overnight. The main changes with this forecast update were to slow the progression of the steadier snow across the region, as well as lower qpf just a bit based on a bit more of a southerly low track. It should be noted that if the Canadian qpf forecast were to verify, warning criteria snow would be difficult to verify, even across downeast areas. That being said, a winter storm warning remains in effect this afternoon and into Thursday afternoon for much of the central highlands, the greater Bangor region, as well as all on downeast Maine. Total snow accumulations in the warning area are expected to range from 6 to 12 inches, with the highest totals along the downeast coast and Washington county. A winter weather advisory has been issued for northern Somerset, northern Penobscot, northern Piscataquis, and Southeast Aroostook county. Total snow accumulations in the advisory area will generally range from 3 to 6 inches. Across far northern Maine. including the St. John Valley, expect storm total snowfall to generally range from 2 to 4 inches through Thursday. Snow will gradually taper to snow showers by Thursday afternoon as the low continues to pull northeast away from the region. High temperatures today and Thursday will range from the mid 20s across the north to the low 30s across downeast areas. Lows tonight will generally range from the mid teens to around 20.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Mcldy skies, ocnl sn shwrs and brisk winds are xpctd Thu ngt and at least Fri morn as the upper low associated with the exiting sfc Maritimes low affects the region. Aftwrds sn shwrs, cld cvr, and eventually winds will subside Fri aftn and Fri ngt allowing for a more tranquil day Sat with ptly cldy skies. Temps will be milder thru this ptn of the fcst than this past week, spcly ovrngt lows. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... For now, the long term looks to be mainly dry with mainly weaker Nrn upper jet branch s/wvs from Cntrl Can bringing perhaps sn shwrs to msly Nrn ptns of the region with little in the way of accumulations Sun ans Sun ngt. Models remain uncertain with the tmg and amplitude of Pacific s/wv energy in the Srn branch of the upper jet for the middle to latter portion of the week, so for now little if any mention of precip thru the end of the long range. Temps will cont fairly mild, with not much in the way of arctic air masses affecting the region. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this morning will give way to MVFR/IFR in developing light snow later this morning and into this afternoon. Expect widespread IFR tonight, especially KBGR/KBHB in snow. IFR/MVFR conditions in snow early Thursday will give way to improving conditions by thursday afternoon in any lingering snow showers. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR clgs/vsbys xpctd Nrn TAF sites Thu ngt and Fri with SC and ocnl sn shwrs while Downeast sites become VFR. All sites then VFR Fri ngt thru Sun. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Wind/seas will gradually increase to small craft advisory levels this afternoon and continue to increase to gale force across the offshore waters tonight. A gale warning is in effect for the outer waters from late this afternoon into Thursday morning and a small craft advisory is in effect for the intra coastal waters from late this afternoon into Thursday morning. Visibility will be reduced in developing snow later this afternoon through early Thursday. SHORT TO lONG TERM: SCA conditions are xpctd Thu ngt and Fri, spcly for outer MZs, then conditions subside below SCA for the weekend into erly next week. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday for MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday for MEZ003>006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN

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