Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 151100
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
600 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017
Low pressure will approach from the west today then redevelop
south of the Gulf of Maine on tonight. The low will then move
along the southern Nova Scotia coast Thursday and across the
eastern Maritimes Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High and mid cloud continues to advance across the region early
this morning in advance of low pressure approaching from the
west. MMRS reflectivity data shows some light returns starting
to make it into extreme western Maine. Temperatures early this
morning have fallen into the teens below zero along the
Maine/QB border. 06z nam and gfs continue to support the best
chances of snow tonight across downeast Maine in association
with developing secondary low. Have made only minor tweaks to
temperatures and dew points based on latest observations with
rest of forecast still looking okay this morning.
Low pressure approaching from the great lakes region will re-
develop in the vicinity of the gulf of a Maine later today. The
consensus of model guidance now takes the low across the
southwest tip of Nova Scotia by 12z Thursday. The low is then
expected to track north through the Canadian maritimes on
Thursday afternoon. Expect snow associated with the approaching
low from the west to overspread western areas this morning and
then continue into this afternoon. Snow is expected to increase
across downeast areas later this afternoon and continue
overnight as the low re- develops across the gulf of Maine and
tracks northeast late tonight, with heaviest snows expected
later tonight through Thursday morning. As the low intensifies,
gusty northeast winds will develop with some blowing and
drifting snow expected overnight.
The main changes with this forecast update were to slow the
progression of the steadier snow across the region, as well as
lower qpf just a bit based on a bit more of a southerly low
track. It should be noted that if the Canadian qpf forecast
were to verify, warning criteria snow would be difficult to
verify, even across downeast areas.
That being said, a winter storm warning remains in effect this
afternoon and into Thursday afternoon for much of the central
highlands, the greater Bangor region, as well as all on downeast
Maine. Total snow accumulations in the warning area are
expected to range from 6 to 12 inches, with the highest totals
along the downeast coast and Washington county.
A winter weather advisory has been issued for northern
Somerset, northern Penobscot, northern Piscataquis, and
Southeast Aroostook county. Total snow accumulations in the
advisory area will generally range from 3 to 6 inches.
Across far northern Maine. including the St. John Valley, expect
storm total snowfall to generally range from 2 to 4 inches
Snow will gradually taper to snow showers by Thursday afternoon
as the low continues to pull northeast away from the region.
High temperatures today and Thursday will range from the mid
20s across the north to the low 30s across downeast areas. Lows
tonight will generally range from the mid teens to around 20.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mcldy skies, ocnl sn shwrs and brisk winds are xpctd Thu ngt
and at least Fri morn as the upper low associated with the
exiting sfc Maritimes low affects the region. Aftwrds sn shwrs,
cld cvr, and eventually winds will subside Fri aftn and Fri ngt
allowing for a more tranquil day Sat with ptly cldy skies. Temps
will be milder thru this ptn of the fcst than this past week,
spcly ovrngt lows.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For now, the long term looks to be mainly dry with mainly weaker
Nrn upper jet branch s/wvs from Cntrl Can bringing perhaps sn
shwrs to msly Nrn ptns of the region with little in the way of
accumulations Sun ans Sun ngt. Models remain uncertain with the
tmg and amplitude of Pacific s/wv energy in the Srn branch of
the upper jet for the middle to latter portion of the week, so
for now little if any mention of precip thru the end of the long
range. Temps will cont fairly mild, with not much in the way of
arctic air masses affecting the region.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this morning will give way to
MVFR/IFR in developing light snow later this morning and into
this afternoon. Expect widespread IFR tonight, especially
KBGR/KBHB in snow. IFR/MVFR conditions in snow early Thursday
will give way to improving conditions by thursday afternoon in
any lingering snow showers.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR clgs/vsbys xpctd Nrn TAF sites Thu ngt
and Fri with SC and ocnl sn shwrs while Downeast sites become
VFR. All sites then VFR Fri ngt thru Sun.
NEAR TERM: Wind/seas will gradually increase to small craft
advisory levels this afternoon and continue to increase to gale
force across the offshore waters tonight. A gale warning is in
effect for the outer waters from late this afternoon into
Thursday morning and a small craft advisory is in effect for the
intra coastal waters from late this afternoon into Thursday
morning. Visibility will be reduced in developing snow later
this afternoon through early Thursday.
SHORT TO lONG TERM: SCA conditions are xpctd Thu ngt and Fri,
spcly for outer MZs, then conditions subside below SCA for the
weekend into erly next week. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts.
ME...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Thursday for MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Thursday for MEZ003>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Thursday for ANZ052.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday