Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211010 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 610 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm high pressure will build over the region Today. Low pressure will track east of the Gulf of Maine Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6 AM Update...Lowered temps a bit, mainly downeast early this morning. Cut back on cloud over over the far north where skies are still clear and lowered dew points just a bit over the north. Otherwise, no major changes this hour. A warm upper level ridge of high pressure combined with weak surface high pressure to the south will set the stage for a very warm day today with summer like high temperatures. The morning will be mostly sunny. The main forecast challenge will be the effects of a weak cold front approaching from the north. As this front approaches later today and tonight, a bit of moisture will begin streaming north into the front from the Mid-Atlantic trough. Some cumulus, and isolated cumulonimbus will bubble up this afternoon ahead of this front. A few spotty showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may affect western and northern areas during the afternoon as a function of heating and the beginning of some weak frontal surface convergence. Capes are up to 300 J/KG across the north this afternoon. The frontal boundary will continue to moisten tonight and clouds will increase. Some spotty showers will be possible overnight, especially across the central highlands where moisture will be streaming along the line of convergence associated with the front. Otherwise, tonight will turn out mostly cloudy and mild.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain across central portions of the forecast area Sunday while surface low pressure tracks east of the Gulf of Maine. Upper level low pressure will remain across the Mid Atlantic region. The stalled front and low will bring rain to the forecast area Sunday. High pressure will begin to build south across the region Sunday night, while the surface low weakens and drifts slowly east. Could have a chance of showers across northern areas early Sunday night, with mostly cloudy skies overnight. Shower chances will decrease across Downeast areas. High pressure builds across the region Monday with partly sunny skies across northern areas. Partly/mostly cloudy skies are expected Downeast Monday with a slight chance of showers early. Another surface low and the upper low will begin to lift north Monday night. Expect partly cloudy skies across northern areas Monday night, with mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers Downeast. Temperatures will be at near normal levels across northern area Sunday, with below normal level temperatures Downeast. Temperatures will be at above normal levels across northern areas Monday, with near normal to below normal level temperatures Downeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled conditions are expected Tuesday through Friday. The surface/upper low will slowly lift across the region Tuesday into Wednesday with a chance of showers. A developing warm front will begin to lift north across the region Thursday with a chance of showers. The frontal boundary remains across the region Friday while low pressure approaches from the west. Shower chances will increase Friday...with a steadier rain possible. Temperatures are expected to be at near normal, to above normal, levels Tuesday through Friday. However, temperatures Thursday/Friday will be dependent on the location of the warm front. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today and tonight, although a few spots may lower to MVFR in lower clouds late tonight, especially across central spots. SHORT TERM: MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the region Sunday into Sunday night, though conditions will begin to improve across northern areas Sunday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible Downeast Monday...with VFR conditions north. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible north Tuesday with MVFR to LIFR conditions Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the entire region Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA today and tonight. Some patchy fog may be over the waters late tonight as surface moisture increases. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to begin reaching Small Craft Advisory levels later Sunday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory conditions are then expected Sunday night into Monday night. Visibilities will be reduced in rain Sunday, with showers Sunday night into early Monday then again later Monday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Bloomer/Norcross Marine...Bloomer/Norcross

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