Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 212314 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 714 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in Canada will crest over the area tonight and move east Monday. An occluded frontal system will cross the region Monday night. Low pressure will approach from the southwest later Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 715 pm update... Thickening mid-high deck continues to stream into the CWA fm the west ahd of system spinning ovr the Great Lakes. Hv adjusted sky cvr higher to pcldy-mcldy acrs nrn zones this evng and clouding up ovr entire CWA drg the ovrngt. No chgs needed to rmndr of grids with this update. Prev discussion blo... METSAT imagery shows high clouds steadily streaming eastward. These clouds will thicken and lower overnight. In response, have nudged expected lows upward. These clouds will remain over the area on Monday in advance of the frontal system. The current air mass is very dry. Outside of a few sprinkles from the higher clouds during the morning, expect most of organized precip will hold off until late in the afternoon with highest pops in the SW corner of the forecast area towards southern Penobscot, Piscataquis and Hancock counties. The Saint John Valley and areas towards the eastern border look dry throughout the day. Without the precip, have raised tomorrow`s highs a couple of degrees...especially towards the eastern border where some mid 60s are possible. Temperatures towards the coast will be cooler than today with an onshore flow. Highs along the coast will be mostly in the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak cold front associated with a 500mb shortwave trough will push through the region Monday night bringing a period of showers. Overall QPF amounts look light with this feature with almost all areas remaining below .25". The higher totals look to be confined Downeast with less then a .10" expected across northern Maine. Partial clearing and drier weather expected on Tuesday with westerly flow across the area. Temperatures will run near normal for this time of year. Model confidence begins to decrease by Wednesday, with a drying trend in the guidance over the last day in regards to a weak coastal wave developing. the GFS/NAM/ECMWF have trended further south with the precip shield with the 12z guidance, with only the GEM keeping a good shot of precip Downeast on Wednesday. Have trended pops down, especially across Northern Maine with this package, but kept chance pops Downeast and Bangor region. If forecast models become more consistent tonight, expect the Wednesday pops to trend even drier. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Large scale pattern for later in the week consists of a large closed 500mb low circulation over the Ohio River Valley morning towards the Northeast corridor. A warm front associated with this system will push through the region Thursday morning with some showers possible and easterly low level flow becoming established. Precip amounts look to be real light at this time on Thursday, but it will be cloudy. Highest confidence at this time for a good widespread soaking rain looks to be on Friday as the upper level and surface low move over the region. Showers could be possible to start the Memorial Day weekend but overall pattern supports a clearing and cooling Saturday night into Sunday. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected next 24 hours with cigs gradually lowering thru 00z Tue. BGR and BHB may see VCSH by late aftn but no vsby restrictions expected at this time. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions possible Monday night in light rain showers due to lower ceilings, for northern TAF terminals. IFR conditions could be possible along the coast though, due to fog lowering visibility. Aviation weather conditions will improve during the day on Tuesday, with the next big weather maker most likely holding off until Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Light winds and seas will mostly run one to two feet. SHORT TERM: Light winds and seas expected through at least Wednesday night in the 2 to 3 feet level. Some fog is possible Monday night with good visibility returning during the day Tuesday. Seas and winds could increase by later Thursday this week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/MCW Short Term...Dumont Long Term...Dumont Aviation...Farrar/MCW/Dumont Marine...Farrar/MCW/Dumont is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.