Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 091928 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 328 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECT A WEAK SURF LOW TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN FEW SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM... GFS... SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. SKY FROM ECMWF...GFS AND NAM. FOR WINDS... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS FROM WMODEL. WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MODEL. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE MOIST GROUND. FAIR WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANGES WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A SW FLOW BRINGS IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO, THE DEVELOPING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE NORTH WARMS UP BY A FEW DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO BECOME MUGGY AND MORE UNSETTLED WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION BY LATER SUNDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GEM. FOLLOWING THIS DISTURBANCE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT FOR SEEING HIGHS MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL FOR THIS NEXT UPCOMING MUGGY STRETCH FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEPS LOW TEMPERATURES UP RESULTING IN FAIRLY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THU THROUGH SAT. A FEW PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE THU NIGHT...MAINLY AT KPQI AND KHUL THAT COULD BRIEFLY DROP THE VSBY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUN AND MON IN -SHRA/-TSHRA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE WMODEL. FOR WAVES: A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH EXTENDS FOR THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD. MODEL WINDS FOR GULF OF MAINE ITSELF RUNNING TOO HIGH.... HOWEVER WITH FETCH EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WARMER WATER THIS IS BECOMING LESS OF A FACTOR THAN YESTERDAY. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS. BASED ON NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL WILL EXTEND SCA FOR SEAS TO 1200Z. SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR A SCA FOR SEAS BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A LONG FETCH OF SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...MIGNONE/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...MIGNONE/FITZSIMMONS

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