Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 151045 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 545 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 545 AM UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT THIS MORNING AS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THESE WILL LESSEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY AND TONIGHT, KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET FOR THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, EXPECT THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKS IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. DOWNEAST/SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS SOUTHERN CLEARING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCOMING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. TONIGHT`S LOWS ARE A BIT TRICKY AS THEY DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH CLEARING HOLDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN REGIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIR AND MILD AS SFC HI PRES CRESTS THE REGION. CLDS THEN INCREASE FROM THE SW TUE NGT AS LEAD S/WVS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVR THE WRN GREAT LKS APCHS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION DURG THE DAY WED AS THE OLD SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS IT ENERGY TO A NEW LOW ON THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE OCCLUSION OVR THE GULF OF ME BY WED AFTN. AN ELEVATED ABV FZL LAYER OVR PTNS OF THE FA WILL MAKE PRECIP TYPE A DIFFICULT CALL. FOR NOW...WE ELIMINATED ANY PRODUCTION OF FZRA FROM THE PRECIP FROM THICKNESS TOOLS WED FOR SIMPLICITY...THINKING THAT SFC HI TEMPS GET TO OR ABV FZG BY AFTN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT FZRA FOR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WED MORN AND FOR NRN PTNS WED AFTN. IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS ACCURATE WITH ITS LLVL AND MID LVL TEMPS FROM THE SFC-700MB...NE AND FAR NE PTNS OF THE FA COULD HOLD MSLY SN WED INTO WED NGT...WITH COLDER AIR LIKELY WORKING BACK NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA WED NGT AS THE TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW BECOMES THE MAIN LOW WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE REMAINS OF THE GREAT LKS LOW...RN AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU MORN. ADV SN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NE...OTHERWISE A COMBO OF PRECIP OVR N CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A WNTR WX ADV. FURTHER S...MSLY RN WILL PREVAIL UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WED NGT...SO AN ADV HERE IS UNLIKELY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE ATTM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANY STEADY SNFL WILL BE MSLY ACROSS THE N THU...WITH LGT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST EXPERIENCING SCT SN SHWRS OR RN/SN SHWRS MIXED. SCT SN SHWRS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N THU NGT INTO FRI MORN AS WEAK TO MDT LLVL COLD ADVCN CONTS...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS...RATHER A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS. AT LEAST SOME CLRG IS XPCTD ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT AS SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN APCHS...WITH MSLY SUNNY SKIES ON SAT AS THE RIDGE AXIS CRESTS THE REGION. CLDS INCREASE LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN AS ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS APCHS...WITH LGT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT...XCPT RN/SN MIXED ALG THE COAST AS MILDER ATLC AIR REACHES NWRD INTO THIS PTN OF THE FA. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 18Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS WILL THIN AND LIFT THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 00Z AND REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ON TUE AND TUE EVE...LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS LATE TUE NGT...THEN IFR/LIFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH PRECIP ON WED INTO WED NGT. DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN SCT SN/RN SHWRS THU WHILE IFR CONTS WITH NRN TAF SITES STEADY LGT SN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS FOR NRN TAF SITES THU NGT INTO FRI...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM:OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING, DON`T EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. WAVES WILL WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AFTN INTO THU EVE WITH A COMBO OF MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS AND WV HTS...OTHERWISE WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA. WE LEANED PRETTY MUCH ON WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE. && .HYDROLOGY... AT LEAST ONE OF THE ICE JAMS APPEARS TO HAVE RELEASED EARLIER SUNDAY EVENING; THE WASHBURN GAGE ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE ABOUT 7 PM AND IS CURRENTLY READING 6.95 FEET AS OF 3 AM. HOWEVER, THE ICE COULD VERY WELL JAM UP DOWNSTREAM, ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE FORT FAIRFIELD JAM IF IT IS STILL THERE. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, PERSONS ALONG THE AROOSTOOK SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL EITHER THE ICE FLUSHES OUT COMPLETELY OR THE RIVER REFREEZES. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN HYDROLOGY...

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