Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160147 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 947 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front from north central Canada will approach the region late tonight and will cross northern portions of region Sunday afternoon and evening then stall Sunday night over central portions of the region. This front will then dissipate on Monday allowing the return of warm...humid air back across all of the region through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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9:30PM Update... Overall temp forecast was fairly in line with observations, so only minor tweaks there for current conditions and trends. Did remove any lingering overnight isolated showers from the grids. Main challenge overnight will be keeping track of the development of low stratus and fog for TAFs. Sky grids may be a bit overly pessimistic in the short-term for some areas, but a look at the fog/low stratus IR products indicates that some areas of at least stratus are forming, though not causing lower flight categories just yet. Original discussion... Low SC/ST cld cvr was able to re-organize and overtake most of the Rgn this aftn, lowering the potential of shwrs/tstms ovr the NW. latest radar does show sct shwrs movg into far Wrn ptns of the FA this mid aftn, but we lowered tstm cvr to isold ovr the NW thru the remainder of the aftn, then end any shwr activity by late eve. Meanwhile, ST clgs will lower ovrngt resulting in areas of fog by late ngt spreading NNE from Downeast areas into Nrn areas by daybreak Sun. Fog should lift by mid morn with low ST dissipating by by midday resulting in ptly sunny skies. Aftwrds, a weakening cold front from N Cntrl Can will apch Nrn ME Sun aftn, crossing at least into Northern ptns by late Sun aftn. Latest model runs have weakened this feature and the supporting s/wv alf so much, that we optd to lift the the enhanced element wording from sct tstms that may form ovr spcly Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the Rgn Sun aftn where we go with a max of 40 to 50 percent PoPs, with max SBCAPE potential in the 700 to 1100 J/kg range. With more in the way of sunshine xpctd ovr a larger ptn of the area, hi temps should reach or just exceed 80 deg F for low trrn lctns N of the immediate Downeast coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Conditions will remain unsettled through early next week as we remain just downstream of a weakening upper trough. This feature will remain nearly stationary just to our west through Monday night, then finally make its eastward push on Tuesday. A series of disturbances will lift across the state in the meantime, resulting in the chance for showers and thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon. Warm and humid conditions will continue as well, with highs around 80 and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Plentiful low level moisture will result in the threat of fog each night, especially Downeast and along the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper trough finally moves to our east Tuesday, with an upper low moving in well to our north. This will place us in near-zonal flow, with minor disturbances moving though periodically. These are notoriously hard to pin down in time and location, but expect we should see the threat of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through Friday. The warm and muggy weather will continue through Friday as well. The long range model guidance is in decent agreement that high pressure will build over the northeast CONUS by the weekend, though, so have gone dry for Saturday for now. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly MVFR SC/ST clgs late this aftn will lower to IFR clgs ovrngt ovr all TAF sites, with LIFR clgs/vsbys late tngt into erly Sun morn. Vsbys in prove and clgs lift back to MVFR all TAF sites late morn into midday hrs Sun and then to VFR Sun aftn. Both clgs and vsbys briefly lower at any TAF site experiencing a tstm/heavier shwr spcly Sun aftn. SHORT TERM: The focus will be two main weather threats through early next week; afternoon showers and thunderstorms and overnight fog. Overall, daytime conditions will remain VFR, with MVFR and brief IFR possible in any of the thunderstorms that will develop each afternoon. Fog will lift onshore each evening and spread northward through the overnight, dropping both visibility and ceilings into the LIFR or VLIFR category, especially at BHB and BGR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: With warm moist air ovrrng cold Gulf of ME waters, SSW sfc winds will be lgt and wv hts low...arnd 2 ft ovr the outer waters and arnd 1 ft alg the near shore...inner bay/harbors. Primary wv pds will be between 5 and 9 sec with wind driven and swell wv pds alternating from tm to tm. Marine fog will cont be a concern thru the entire near term. SHORT TERM: No headlines are anticipated through early next week as winds and waves will both remain well below Small Craft levels. The main concern will be persistent dense fog which will reduce visibility to a mile or less at times. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Kredensor/VJN Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Kredensor/VJN/Hastings Marine...Kredensor/VJN/Hastings

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