Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240219 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1019 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WHILE A DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH OF MAINE. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 10 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CROWN OF MAINE. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE STATE ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW BRUNSWICK. THE QPF FORECAST IS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE BREVITY OF THIS WARM UP AND AMOUNT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP RIVER ICE ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... OLD MAN WINTER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH DESCENDS ON THE EASTERN U.S. THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DESCENDS ON THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF MARCH WITH THE COLDEST DAY ON SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH MAY HIT THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORT TERM: IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6-9 FEET AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI

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