Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230503 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 103 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build across the region later Thursday through Thursday night then move east Friday. A warm front will cross the region Friday with a cold front crossing the region Friday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update... High pressure will slowly build toward the region overnight while low pressure exits across the maritimes. The pressure gradient between the low and high will keep gusty northwest winds across the region overnight with gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear overnight. Wind Chill Advisories also remain in effect across northern Maine overnight. Overnight low temperatures will range from around zero to 5 below north to around 5 above interior Downeast with 5 to 10 along the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight cloud cover, temperatures and winds. Previous discussion... Expect a fairly sunny day tomorrow but nw winds wl rmn gusty as pressure gradient rmns tight until aftn with ridge axis building in twd the end of the near term pd. Maxes wl rmn much blo normal on Thur as arctic air filters in on nrly flow, tho H9 temps wl warm a few degrees ovr tda.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will drift across New England Thursday night and to the east of the region on Friday. Low pressure will move eastward well to our north, dragging its attendant cold front across the Northeast CONUS in its wake. MOisture lifting northward out ahead of the front will bring a quick shot of precipitation to the region Friday afternoon and evening. Northern and central areas will remain cold enough for mostly snow, while Downeast should go over to a rain/snow mix or just plain rain by late afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation will fall during the late afternoon and evening hours, then the front will move through around midnight, quickly shunting the precipitation to the east. Any rain will change back over to snow before the precipitation comes to an end. Noted that some of the model guidance is hinting at some light freezing rain mixing in across portions of the Central Highlands and interior Downeast. Current indications are that if this were to occur, it would be very brief and happen as precipitation is coming to an end, so have opted to leave out of the forecast at this time. Snow amounts will be minimal with most locations seeing an inch or less. Saturday will be dry under decreasing clouds. In spite of the frontal passage, Saturday`s temperatures will be at or above Friday`s highs owing to increasing sun and downsloping winds. Highs will range from the lower 30s north to the mid 40s Downeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A large high pressure system building down from Canada will bring a cold, clear and starlit night Saturday night. Sunday will begin sunny before moisture ahead of a large storm system begins lifting into the area. Clouds may increase in the Downeast region by late Sunday while the north remains mostly sunny. Our attention then turns to a couple storm systems early next week pushing out ahead of a large trough approaching from the Midwest. The first low trekking across the area on Monday will bring a chance of some snow with the best chance Downeast where the snow may mix with some rain. A break is possible Monday night before another large storm approaches late Tuesday into Wednesday. If the GFS is right, the mid-week storm may involve a northern branch shortwave phasing in with a southern branch shortwave to develop a potentially strong coastal low by Wednesday morning. The ECMWF currently has the mid-week storm developing a bit later, to our southeast, which would favor lighter snow but still a potentially windy day as the storm winds up and tracks south of the Maritimes. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region overnight through Thursday. Northwest winds will remain gusty into Thursday afternoon with gusts of 30 to 35 mph. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Friday. Then ceilings will lower to MVFR and eventually IFR by 21z as rain and snow spread across the region. IFR conditions are expected 21z Friday through 06z Saturday, then precipitation will come to an end after a cold frontal passage. Clouds will lift to VFR by 12-15z Saturday, with skies clearing by late afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning and Freezing Spray Advisory remain in effect across the waters overnight into Thursday morning. Expect 7 to 10 foot seas across much of the waters overnight, with 3 to 5 foot seas for the intracoastal waters. Expect SCA conditions Thursday. Moderate freezing spray is expected overnight through late Thursday morning. SHORT TERM: Northwest winds will be gusting 25-30 kt early Thursday night but they will subside overnight as high pressure builds across the waters. However, winds and seas will both increase during the day Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. Small Craft conditions are expected by early Friday afternoon, and these will persist through much of Friday night. Winds will decrease early Saturday morning with the return of high pressure, but seas will hang above 5 ft through the day Saturday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001>003. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Norcross/Farrar Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Norcross/Hastings Marine...Norcross/Hastings

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