Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
280 FXUS61 KCAR 232251 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 651 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in place over the region overnight. A weak back door cold front will approach from the north Sunday morning and cross the region Sunday afternoon and evening. After stalling just south of the region late Sunday night, the front will then lift back north across all of the region on Monday as a warm front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
650pm Update... No changes needed to the forecast other than issuing another beach hazards statement for high paddlecraft risk for Sunday. Previous Discussion... Skies will remain mclr across the Rgn going into the eve hrs with hi/mid cldnss from Cntrl QB movg into the N hlf of the FA and low cldnss and patchy fog movg onshore to Downeast areas from the Gulf of ME both late tngt. Ovrngt lows will be quite mild, despite a sig drop from this aftn`s hi temps due to how unseasonably warm hi temps were tdy. Sun will begin ptly to msly sunny across the Rgn aft early morn patchy fog dissipates across Downeast and E Cntrl ptns of the FA. A weak backdoor cold front from Cntrl QB will move Swrd into Nrn ptns of the area by mid aftn working Swrd to the coast by ovrngt as an upper lvl disturbance works ESE ovr the Rgn. With sfc dwpts surging well into the 60s ahead of this front, there will be enough instability for isold to sct tstms mainly along the Ern ME/NB border trailing SW into interior Downeast areas at cnvctv initiation tm with fcst max SREF SBCAPEs are apchg 1000 J/Kg ovr these areas attm. Given only modest mid lvl lapse rates, we will hold off on enhanced tstm wording attm, although it should be noted that there is some mid to upper lvl shear as indicative of of 25 to 35 kt of 0-6Km bulk shear. Prior to tstm development, there should be ample sunshine, spcly ovr Cntrl and interior Downeast areas when combined with downslope winds and record fcst aftn max 925mb of mid 20s deg C, hi temps will likely apch 90 deg ovr low trrn lctns there and well in the 80s ovr low trrn lctns to the N. Coastal Downeast lctns will likely be tempered by a shallow sea breeze circulation.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The summerlike conditions will continue through early next week as a large upper ridge remains parked to to our south and west. A frontal boundary will waver across the state through the period, but don`t expect much more than a few showers or thunderstorms from this each afternoon. Temperatures will be very mild, with daytime highs reaching well into the 70s and 80s. Tuesday will be the warmest day, with some locations approaching 90. Dewpoints will be on the rise as well, so nights will be on the muggy side. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... After another muggy night Tuesday, showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass for later next week. High pressure will briefly build over the area later Thursday through Friday, but showers will threaten again Saturday as the upper trough swings across the area. Hurricane Maria looks to stay well to our south Thursday and Friday, though it may produce long-period swell along the coast. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR is xpctd at the TAF sites tngt thru Sun with a brief pd of MVFR/IFR vsbys/clgs with patchy fog and ST cld cvr possible late tngt into erly Sun morn ovr Downeast TAF sites, spcly KBHB. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through the daylight hours, but IFR/LIFR will be possible in patchy fog 00z-13z each day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons, but the better chance for precipitation and possible lowered vis/ceilings will be after 16z Wed as a cold front approaches from the west. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: We finally dropped the SCA for seas ovr our outer MZs with wv hts at the Ern ME Shelf and Jonesport Buoys msly at or below 5 ft, with the trend xpctd to cont to subside a little more ovr the next 6 hrs. We kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts for this ptn of the fcst with primary wv pds varying from 8 to 10 sec from residual swell energy from Jose to 12 to 16 sec from long distance swell radiating from Maria. ST cld cvr and areas of marine fog will likely work back toward the coast ovrngt and then back offshore during the late morn and aftn hrs. Lastly, we will likely need another paddle risk beach statement for area beaches for Sun due to the unseasonably warm air temps in close proximity to near shore waters. SHORT TERM: Seas will build to 4 to 6 feet early next week, so a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas may be needed. Otherwise, the only concern will be patchy fog which will reduce visibility to 1-3SM at times. && .CLIMATE... Record high temps are likely at multiple locations Sunday afternoon. Current records for this date are: Sunday September 24th Caribou.......80 deg set in 1958 Bangor........88 deg set in 1930 Houlton.......81 deg set in 1958 Millinocket...86 deg set in 1920 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ Near Term...Foisy/VJN Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Foisy/VJN/Hastings Marine...Foisy/VJN/Hastings Climate...VJN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.