Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290235 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1035 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A low in Quebec will drag a warm front across the area tonight, followed by a cold front on Monday. High pressure returns Monday night into Tuesday. Another frontal system will affect the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1035 pm update... Hv rmvd thunder chcs for tonight as convection has weakened. Boosted pop to lkly acrs the north for the next hr as area of rain mvs thru. Retained lkly pops acrs cntrl/srn zones for tonight but may be able to drop down to sctd with next update as cvrg is rapidly dwindling. Wmfnt looks to hv mvd thru CWA at this time with cdfnt located fm sfc low in cntrl Quebec down twd a Massena- Niagara Falls line. Fropa looks to occur drg the mrng hrs. Wl be hard-pressed to see much more than sctd pops along frontal bndry as wv sparking off convection acrs the south impedes moisture transport to the north. Hv bumped mins up by svrl degrees with temps rmng fairly steady ovrngt ahd of cdfnt. No other chgs needed at this time. Prev discussion blo... Low pressure currently spinning over west central Quebec will continue to push eastward overnight, dragging its attendant cold front in its wake. Showers will develop out ahead of this boundary as it moves eastward. This precipitation will move into western areas this evening and then spread over the area through midnight or so. There will be some elevated instability; model progs are running 850-700MB CAPE of up to 300 J/kg and lapse rates will be 6-6.5 C/km. This will be enough for a few rumbles of thunder this evening. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s in most locations. For Monday...the front will be stretched across northern Maine in the morning hours and will move offshore during the day. Scattered showers will linger over mainly northern areas through much of the morning, but overall expect a drying trend through the day. Downeast will likely see sunshine by afternoon as winds turn northwest. Highs will range from around 70 in the upper Saint John Valley to the upper 70s interior Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The models are in good agreement through the period. A low exiting the area into the Canadian Maritimes. Higher pressure building into the area from the southwest. The high pressure will dominate the weather through early Tuesday afternoon. A cold front will push into northwest Maine by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used RFCQFP for first 12 hrs and a GFS for the rest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... For Wednesday evening, went above consensus guidance with pops and added a slight chance of thunderstorms as a vigorous upper level trough will accompany a cold front across the area in the evening. Am favoring a slightly slower progression of the cold front in line with NAM and ECMWF guidance. This front will bring a significant air mass change for the remainder of the week as a fall-like Canadian air mass arrives. On Thursday, a deep upper trough in Quebec will amplify and keep afternoon showers in the forecast...mostly in the north. Temperatures will drop to the upper 60s north and lower 70s south. The upper trough will cross Thursday night. Went above MOS guidance for lows and kept slight chance pops for showers in the north along with a lot of cloud cover. This cloud cover persists in the north on Friday as northwest winds strengthen and bring clouds southward to Bangor and the Down East region. Will keep slight chance pops in the north for a few sprinkles. Highs will be just above 60F in the Saint John Valley and only reach the upper 60s for Bangor. Went below MOS guidance for highs on Friday. Dew points will be dropping down into the 40s on Friday. The cool air mass remains in place through Saturday before a southwest wind warms temperatures back into the 70s across the entire forecast area on Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions initially will lower to MVFR and eventually IFR in low cigs after 06z. Expect -shra at HUL and BGR after 02z and potentially at BHB. Have not included any -tsra at this point due to low confidence. Cold front moves through northern terminals after 15z, and 18z at southern terminals. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest with VFR expected in wake of fropa. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions for all sites through Tuesday afternoon. Cigs will begin falling Tuesday afternoon becoming MVFR in showers and thunderstorm late Tuesday afternoon. Shower will continue into late morning Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon VFR conditions will return to the area as higher pressure builds across the region. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Headlines are not expected through Monday. South winds will increase and gradually become southwest overnight into early Monday in response to a cold front approaching from the west; gusts up to 20 kt will be possible. The front will cross the waters Monday afternoon, allowing winds to turn offshore. Waves are expected to build overnight as well, mainly in south swell. Much of the guidance is showing waves reaching 5 ft over the outer waters by Monday morning, but much of the guidance has been overdoing the wave heights over the past 12-24 hours or so. So the current thinking is that seas will peak out around 4 ft Monday morning, and then subside through the day as winds turn westerly. Therefore, no Small Craft Advisories will be needed. SHORT TERM: High pressure will dominate the weather conditions for the coastal waters through the Tuesday. Seas will build to around 5 ft towards the end of the period, otherwise winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Hastings Short Term...Norton Long Term...MCW Aviation...Farrar/Hastings/Norton Marine...Farrar/Hastings/Norton is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.