Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 182213 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 613 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will move across the area this evening followed by a cold front later tonight. High pressure will build across the region Wednesday through early Thursday. Strong low pressure will lift north across the region Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 6 PM Update...Lowered pops early this evening with radar showing the region rain free. Still expecting showers to move into the area, mostly across the north, later this evening as the front pushes in. Also lowered temps early this evening. Expect mixing to raise temps overnight as southwesterly breeze increases. The warm front continues to make slow progress into the forecast area this afternoon. The heaviest rain associated with the front is currently in Aroostook County and will exit by late afternoon. This will leave areas of light rain and drizzle for the remainder of this evening under a frontal inversion. The air in the warm sector is very humid with dew points likely to reach over 60F in the Downeast region tonight. This means that temperatures will tend to rise most of the night and that fog/drizzle will form for many areas...especially towards the coast and in higher upslope terrain. The cold front will arrive in the Crown of Maine this evening and slowly slink southward during the night. Most of the precip will be in Aroostook County where up to a quarter inch could fall in the Saint John Valley. Have added isolated thunder this evening in the north half of the forecast area...mostly north of a line from Greenville to Houlton where elevated instability will be sufficient. The line currently in Quebec has been impressive this afternoon and continuity alone prompts mention of thunder. As the front moves south later in the night, little if any precip is expected...especially south of Houlton. The fog will be eroded in northern zones, but will probably hang around until morning for much of Hancock and Washington counties. Lows tonight will be near 50F north and upper 50s for Bangor and the Downeast region. For Wednesday, high pressure will build through the day. Cooler air will be slow to advect southward. As a result, the elevated overnight temperatures will serve as a springboard to highs in the 60s and 70s. It will probably be one of the nicer days left in this fall season. Morning clouds from residual moisture to tend to dissipate by late morning into early afternoon as dry air with the high advects into the forecast area. It will be windy with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will cross the region Wednesday night with mostly clear skies. High pressure will exit across the maritimes Thursday while low pressure lifts across the Ohio River Valley. A trof will extend northeast from the low, toward New England. Clouds will increase early Thursday. Moisture will increase along the trof through the afternoon which will bring a chance of rain to the forecast area during the afternoon. The low will track toward western New England Thursday night, with the trof across northern Maine. Moisture convergence along the trof will support rain across northern portions of the forecast area Thursday night, with rain likely Downeast. An upper level trof will approach from the west Friday which will support the development of a secondary low across New England. The approaching upper trof and developing surface low will draw tropical moisture north across the region. Isentropic lift, upper level divergence in advance of the approaching trof and moisture convergence will support rain across the region Friday. Temperatures will be at slightly above normal levels Thursday/Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A deep trough of low pressure will be moving in from the Great Lakes on Friday as a series of disorganized surface lows move north toward our region from the south. A weak low associated with a tropical depression, well off the southeast coast, will be lifting north northeast as the trough moves in. Latest guidance is suggesting this low will track well south and east of our region as the trough nears. However, a frontal low further north, off the New England coast, will be able to tap into some moisture from this tropical wave as it lifts north through our region Friday night. This has the potential to bring significant rain to the area Friday night before it lifts north of the area on Saturday as the trough nears. Drier air circulating through the trough will swing into the area on Saturday. Moisture pooled in the upper trough will then circulate back into our region late Saturday night into Sunday as the upper trough lifts to our north. Some showers are likely Sunday and boundary layer temps may be cold enough for snow showers over the higher elevations in western areas. Chilly conditions with snow or rain showers will persist across the north in wrap around moisture Monday into Tuesday while Downeast has partial clearing. Wednesday will remain chilly as the upper trough to our north continues drawing cold air in from the northwest and Canadian high pressure begins building in from central Canada. Stratocumulus clouds will likely persist over the north Wednesday with some sunshine favored Downeast. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: As the warm front crosses this evening, the trend will be all sites going to IFR and LIFR due to ceiling and vis. The poor conditions will be exacerbated by LLWS. Southeasterly winds up to 60 to 70 kts will be found between FL030 to FL050. Even at 2000 ft, 40 to 50 kt winds are forecast. Most of these winds will not mix to the surface although FVE could see gusts over 30 kts this evening. The cold front will tend to remove the IFR ceilings later tonight in favor of MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions are expected for all sites by mid to late Wednesday morning and will continue through Wednesday evening. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday night through early Thursday, with MVFR conditions starting to develop Thursday afternoon. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected Thursday night through early Saturday, with MVFR conditions later Saturday. MVFR conditions are expected to persist across northern areas Sunday, with occasional MVFR conditions possible Downeast. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The SCA will remain in place with winds and seas continuing to trend upward this afternoon with some gusts to 35 kts possible. The winds will become more steady through the night around 25 kts. Seas will increase this evening to nearly 7 feet. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Wednesday night into early Thursday night. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected later Thursday night into Friday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and fog Thursday night into Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.