Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 081030 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 630 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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615 AM UPDATE: ST AND FOG ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT AT SOME LCTNS SUCH AS CARIBOU...AND HOLDING ON TO OTHERS SUCH AS BANGOR. ALL REMAINING FOG AND ST SHOULD LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. IN THE MEAN TIME.. ONLY ISOLD SHWRS REMAIN OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA. ATTM...THE CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...INCLUDING HRLY FCST TEMPS INTO THE LATE MORN...SO NO SIG CHGS NEEDED THIS UPDATE. PREV DISC: ISOLD SHWRS CONT TO DOT MSLY NRN AND SE PTNS OF THE FA VERY ERLY THIS MORN. WE WILL CONT WITH THE MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS GIVEN THE ELEVATED CAPE MAX XPCTD TO CROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA THRU 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION TIL ABOUT 6 TO 7 AM. OTHERWISE...WE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO FCST AFTN AND ERLY ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS FOR NRN...CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT IDENTIFY SPECIFIC S/WVS ALF TO HELP TRIGGER THESE STORMS...FCST AFTN SB-ML CAPES SUGGEST THAT INITIATION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE SEA BREEZE CNVRG ZONE OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST LCTNS AS IT MOVES NWRD FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LVL DVRG MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR WITH SB CAPES FCST TO REACH UPWARDS TO 1000-1500J/ KG. A SIG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALF ABV THE LLVL MOISTURE ZONE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY TSTMS THAT FORM NO GREATER THAN SCT IN CVRG THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. A STRONG S/WV EXITING ENE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS COULD PROVIDE MORE GENERALIZED CVRG OF SHWRS AND PERHAPS TSTMS TO MSLY WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE REGION AS THE S/WV APCHS FROM ERN QB. HIGHEST POPS BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS QPF IS FCST ACROSS WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA WHERE WE CONT TO SHOW LIKELY POPS. OTHERWISE...WITH AT LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES LATER THIS MORN INTO THIS AFTN AND FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S DEG C... MOST LOWER TRRN LCTNS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR AFTN HI TEMPS WITH DWPNTS MSLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NGT OF WARM OVRNGT LOWS DO TO CONTD DOMINANCE OF HUMID AIR AS WELL AS CLD CVR AND ASSOCIATED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN QUEBEC ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT NORTHEASTERN MAINE DURING THE MORNING. CLEARING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S FOR THE MILLINOCKET TO BANGOR CORRIDOR. A SEA BREEZE WILL REDUCE HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR A HUMID DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DOWN EAST. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN EAST WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE GOOD WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN MAINE. HIGHS WILL INCREASE FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY. THE HUMIDITY RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY AND BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL SPECIFY HIGHS NEAR 80F FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN ANTICIPATED. THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH FOG AND ISOLD SHWRS WILL RECOVER TO VFR LATER THIS MORN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES... WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. MORE GENERAL MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CLGS/VSBYS WITH RN SHWRS WILL RETURN TO SPCLY NRN TAF SITES LATER TNGT. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR NORTH OF HUL EARLY WEDNESDAY AM. OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE ON AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. ALL VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE HAZ SEAS SCA FOR OUTER MZS050-051 TDY THRU TNGT. THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS AFTN AND EVE WHERE WV HTS MAY SUBSIDE BLO 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WE ARE NOT CERTAIN AND IT MAY NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH BEFORE WVS BUILD AGAIN LATE TNGT TO WARRANT DROPPING THE SCA ATTM. CONTD WITH USING ABOUT 75 TO 80 PERCENT THE VALUE OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR OUR FCST WV HTS DUE TO A HIGH GFS WIND SPEED BIAS TYPICAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. SHORT TERM: SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 7 FT WAVES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ANTICIPATE THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL EXPIRE. FOG IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

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