Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221348 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 948 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will be across north central areas today while low pressure near the Mid Atlantic coast tracks south of the Gulf of Maine. High pressure will build across the region Monday. Low pressure will lift north across the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update...A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across northern Maine today. Expect enough convergence along the boundary to combine with afternoon heating for a few showers. Have continued the mention of isolated thunder for now but will evaluate this on next update. Also, made minor adjustments to hrly temps and dew points this morning. previous discussion Convergence along a weak frontal boundary across north central areas will provide focus for some showers and spotty thunderstorms today. Capes are up to 300 J/KG over the north. Moisture will be feeding into the front from the moist trough of low pressure hanging back in the Mid-Atlantic region. Surface low pressure will track southeast of Cape Cod and south of the Gulf of Maine today. The northern edge of this system may bring some light rain to coastal areas. Weak surface ridging will then be over interior Downeast locations between the offshore low and the frontal boundary to the north, and will likely keep interior Downeast areas mostly dry today. Otherwise, today will be mostly cloudy and warm across the region. Any showers along the northern front will taper off at the end of the day. Tonight will then bring some clearing over northern areas while Downeast remains mostly cloudy. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... High pressure will ridge south across the region Monday with partly/mostly sunny skies across northern and central portions of the forecast area, with partly/mostly cloudy skies Downeast. Surface/upper level low pressure will begin to lift north from the Mid Atlantic region Monday night. Partly cloudy/mostly clear skies are expected across central and northern portions of the forecast area Monday night. Cloud cover will increase Downeast with a chance of showers late. The surface/upper low will lift across the region Tuesday through Tuesday night with mostly cloudy skies and showers. The warmest temperatures Monday/Tuesday are generally expected across northern portions of the forecast area where the most sun will occur, with cooler temperatures Downeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will cross the region Wednesday with a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. The front will stall south of the region Thursday...then begin to lift back north Friday into Saturday. However...uncertainty exists regarding the exact location of the front Friday into Saturday. Expect unsettled conditions across the region Friday/Saturday with showers or possibly a steadier rain dependent on the location of the front. Temperatures will be at slightly above normal levels Wednesday/Thursday. Temperatures are generally expected to be at near normal levels Friday/Saturday, though temperatures will be dependent on the location of the front. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today and tonight. The possible exception may be some thundershowers over the north today or patchy lower clouds Downeast late tonight. SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Monday. However, occasional MVFR conditions are possible Downeast early Monday then again later Monday night. MVFR to LIFR conditions will expand north across the region Tuesday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the region Wednesday. Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Thursday, though MVFR to IFR conditions could begin to develop Thursday night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA today. An sca will be needed for winds gusting up to 25 kt and seas up to 7 ft tonight in response to the offshore storm tracking south of the Gulf of Maine. SHORT TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, into Monday afternoon. Conditions are then expected to be below Small Craft Advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday night. Visibilities will be reduced in showers later Monday night into Tuesday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Duda Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Bloomer/Duda/Norcross Marine...Bloomer/Duda/Norcross

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